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Al Qaida

The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Amarnath Amarasingam
Oct 28, 2019
Foreign Policy
The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.
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Hurricanes
blog
Hurricane Dorian, Al Qaeda, Veterans' Health: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 13, 2019
This weekly recap looks at Hurricane Dorian recovery, al Qaeda 18 years after 9/11, veterans' mental health care, and more.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Charles Lister
Sep 5, 2019
Foreign Policy
As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?
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Al Qaida
commentary
The Death of Hamza bin Laden Will Hurt al Qaeda
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Aug 2, 2019
Foreign Policy
Hamza bin Laden, the son of al Qaeda's founder and the architect of the 9/11 attacks, is reportedly dead. If true, this is more than just a symbolic loss for the terrorist organization.
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Al Qaida
commentary
How Terrorist Groups Learn: Implications for al Qaeda
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Mar 14, 2019
Foreign Policy Research Institute
With the Islamic State losing the last of its territory, the global jihadist movement is now entering a new phase. The question on the minds of many is whether al Qaeda will be able to capitalize upon the moment and reclaim the dominant position as the most capable Sunni jihadist terrorist organization.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Dec 11, 2018
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)
The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. In this fragmented and atomised form, IS could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Power of Affiliates: Which Islamic State Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 9, 2018
The National Interest
With ISIS's caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even deadlier and more capable than the core organization was during its peak. And with franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there's no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world's most dangerous terrorist group.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Do Terrorist Groups Really Die? A Warning
Antonia Ward
Apr 9, 2018
Georgetown Security Studies Review
The persistence of al Qaeda and ISIS underscores terrorist groups' adaptability in the 21st century. Both organizations maintain global, regional, and local influence in the face of immense pressure. As terrorist groups fall, the West should watch them closely to prevent a resurgence.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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Al Qaida
commentary
The Moderate Face of Al Qaeda
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 24, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Al Qaeda in Syria cut ties with its parent organization to portray itself as a legitimate, capable, and independent force in the Syrian civil war. The group appears dedicated to helping Syrians prevail, and now that ISIS has lost its capital in Raqqa, al Qaeda may be the only group viewed as militarily capable of challenging the Assad regime.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Sep 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Developments in the Sahel are cause for alarm. Despite the presence of an active French counterterrorism force and a UN peacekeeping mission, al Qaeda groups are thriving. The region would benefit from approaches that combine police and military operations with economic development and improved governance.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Will Al Qaeda Make a Comeback?
Seth G. Jones
Aug 7, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Al Qaeda's revival will likely hinge on its ability to take advantage of opportunities such as the withdrawal of counterterrorism forces from key battlefields, more revolt in the Middle East, U.S. or European policies that feed the perception of Muslim oppression, or the rise of a charismatic jihadist leader.
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Afghanistan
commentary
Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 23, 2017
The Cipher Brief
The Trump administration faces the choice of losing quickly by withdrawing from Afghanistan; losing slowly by maintaining America's current, inadequate commitment; or not losing by increasing that commitment enough to maintain a stalemate on the battlefield.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 22, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?
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Violence
commentary
Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 7, 2017
Fortune
The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Attacks on Russia Will Only Increase
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 4, 2017
The Atlantic
As Russia gets more involved with the Syrian civil war, it's likely that Sunni militants will intensify their campaign against Russia. But the key reason why Sunni attacks on Russia proper will increase is the fallout between Sunni jihadists in the Caucasus — namely, the al-Qaeda-linked Caucasus Emirate and the ISIS-linked Wilayat Qawqaz.
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