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Al Qaida

The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Dec 11, 2018
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)
The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. In this fragmented and atomised form, IS could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Power of Affiliates: Which Islamic State Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 9, 2018
The National Interest
With ISIS's caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even deadlier and more capable than the core organization was during its peak. And with franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there's no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world's most dangerous terrorist group.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Do Terrorist Groups Really Die? A Warning
Antonia Ward @antoniahward
Apr 9, 2018
Georgetown Security Studies Review
The persistence of al Qaeda and ISIS underscores terrorist groups' adaptability in the 21st century. Both organizations maintain global, regional, and local influence in the face of immense pressure. As terrorist groups fall, the West should watch them closely to prevent a resurgence.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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Al Qaida
commentary
The Moderate Face of Al Qaeda
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 24, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Al Qaeda in Syria cut ties with its parent organization to portray itself as a legitimate, capable, and independent force in the Syrian civil war. The group appears dedicated to helping Syrians prevail, and now that ISIS has lost its capital in Raqqa, al Qaeda may be the only group viewed as militarily capable of challenging the Assad regime.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Sep 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Developments in the Sahel are cause for alarm. Despite the presence of an active French counterterrorism force and a UN peacekeeping mission, al Qaeda groups are thriving. The region would benefit from approaches that combine police and military operations with economic development and improved governance.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Will Al Qaeda Make a Comeback?
Seth G. Jones
Aug 7, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Al Qaeda's revival will likely hinge on its ability to take advantage of opportunities such as the withdrawal of counterterrorism forces from key battlefields, more revolt in the Middle East, U.S. or European policies that feed the perception of Muslim oppression, or the rise of a charismatic jihadist leader.
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Afghanistan
commentary
Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 23, 2017
The Cipher Brief
The Trump administration faces the choice of losing quickly by withdrawing from Afghanistan; losing slowly by maintaining America's current, inadequate commitment; or not losing by increasing that commitment enough to maintain a stalemate on the battlefield.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 22, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?
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Violence
commentary
Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 7, 2017
Fortune
The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Attacks on Russia Will Only Increase
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 4, 2017
The Atlantic
As Russia gets more involved with the Syrian civil war, it's likely that Sunni militants will intensify their campaign against Russia. But the key reason why Sunni attacks on Russia proper will increase is the fallout between Sunni jihadists in the Caucasus — namely, the al-Qaeda-linked Caucasus Emirate and the ISIS-linked Wilayat Qawqaz.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Al Qaeda in Syria Can Change Its Name, but Not Its Stripes
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Mar 23, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Al Qaeda in Syria, by any name, remains a dangerous and capable terrorist organization with the ability to conduct attacks in the West. Those seeking to grapple with the threat the group poses should focus less on its names and more on its actions.
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Syria
commentary
Al Nusra Is Stronger Than Ever
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Nov 2, 2016
The Cipher Brief
While the West targets ISIS, Jabhat Fateh al Sham, formerly known as Jabhat al Nusra, is quietly laying the groundwork for al Qaeda's resurgence.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Al Qaeda's Ruthless Pragmatism Makes It More Dangerous Than the Islamic State
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Barak Mendelsohn
Oct 27, 2016
Reuters
Al Qaeda presents a graver long-term threat to the West than the Islamic State. It has proved more effective in exploiting U.S. policy in the Middle East to legitimize itself as an armed force and, increasingly, as a viable political player.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
September 11: The Day That Changed My Country (and My Career Path) Forever
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Sep 11, 2016
Fox News Channel
New York City native Colin Clarke discusses how terrorism has evolved since the September 11 attacks and how the tragedy motivated him to become a terrorism expert.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Fifteen Years on, Where Are We in the 'War on Terror'?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 7, 2016
CTC Sentinel
Much has changed since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Counterterrorism efforts have made progress, and Americans are safer. But it's unclear how much further the fight against terrorism has to go.
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Al Qaida

The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate

The Power of Affiliates: Which Islamic State Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?

Do Terrorist Groups Really Die? A Warning

Expanding the ISIS Brand

The Moderate Face of Al Qaeda

Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance

Will Al Qaeda Make a Comeback?

Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing

Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?

Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?

Attacks on Russia Will Only Increase

Al Qaeda in Syria Can Change Its Name, but Not Its Stripes

Al Nusra Is Stronger Than Ever

Al Qaeda's Ruthless Pragmatism Makes It More Dangerous Than the Islamic State

September 11: The Day That Changed My Country (and My Career Path) Forever

Fifteen Years on, Where Are We in the 'War on Terror'?

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