Arms Proliferation and Control

commentary

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?

The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill

blog

Homelessness in L.A., Russia's Military Woes, Educator Morale: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on breaking the cycle of incarceration and homelessness, Russia’s ongoing military struggles, NATO expansion, and more.

commentary

How Russia's Nuclear Double Cross of Ukraine Teaches Dangerous Lessons

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West's support for Kyiv has been tempered by an ace up Vladimir Putin's sleeve: the potential use of nuclear weapons. But other countries are taking notice, which could imperil world stability even further.

Polina Sinovets, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini, et al.

commentary

A Renewed Nuclear Deal With Iran: Turning Back the Clock?

Diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran are in Vienna trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015. But even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

commentary

What Does Africa Need Most Now: Russian Arms Sales or Good Vaccines?

Why is Russia's main export to Africa advanced conventional weapons at a time when other needs are so great? African leaders might think twice about aggressive Russian arms pitches and engagement of mercenaries, and prioritize measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic growth.

John V. Parachini @JohnParachini, Ryan Bauer

commentary

Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy

The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

North Korea's 'Business as Usual' Missile Provocations

North Korea has revved up its cycle of missile provocations, its go-to method of securing leverage against the United States and South Korea in the on-again off-again nuclear negotiations. How will the United States and South Korea choose to respond?

Soo Kim

commentary

Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.

Soo Kim

commentary

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Diana Y. Myers

commentary

Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation

The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.

Soo Kim

commentary

Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan

As the only country to suffer the horrors of wartime atomic bombings, one would assume Japan would eagerly sign any treaty to ban such weapons. Why hasn't Japan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in January 2021?

Sayuri Romei

blog

Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.

commentary

COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices

Recently, Kim Jong-un admitted that North Korea is facing a dire situation. It was surprising that he would admit circumstances which at face value suggest major failures on his part. Why is Kim admitting that such circumstances are developing in the North now?

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim's Atomic Appetite? Think Again

Coronavirus or not, Kim Jong-un's appetite for nuclear and missile bargaining with the United States remains intact. This likely spells further weapons demonstrations from North Korea, with potentially longer-range missile demonstrations to test Washington's resolve in its nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang.

Soo Kim

commentary

Why Biden Can't Turn Back the Clock on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Enacted in 2016, the Iran nuclear deal was predicated on a geopolitical context that no longer exists. Addressing Iran's nuclear program today may require a different solution.

Raphael S. Cohen