Arms Proliferation and Control

Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Oct 20, 2021
The National Interest
The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea's 'Business as Usual' Missile Provocations
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Oct 14, 2021
Korea On Point
North Korea has revved up its cycle of missile provocations, its go-to method of securing leverage against the United States and South Korea in the on-again off-again nuclear negotiations. How will the United States and South Korea choose to respond?
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Jul 14, 2021
The National Interest
The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Diana Y. Myers
Jul 13, 2021
The National Interest
Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.
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North Korea
commentary
Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation
Soo Kim @mllesookim
May 6, 2021
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan
Sayuri Romei
Apr 30, 2021
Asahi Shimbun
As the only country to suffer the horrors of wartime atomic bombings, one would assume Japan would eagerly sign any treaty to ban such weapons. Why hasn't Japan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in January 2021?
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Summer Learning
blog
Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap
Apr 23, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.
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North Korea
commentary
COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Apr 20, 2021
The National Interest
Recently, Kim Jong-un admitted that North Korea is facing a dire situation. It was surprising that he would admit circumstances which at face value suggest major failures on his part. Why is Kim admitting that such circumstances are developing in the North now?
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North Korea
commentary
Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim's Atomic Appetite? Think Again
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Apr 20, 2021
The National Interest
Coronavirus or not, Kim Jong-un's appetite for nuclear and missile bargaining with the United States remains intact. This likely spells further weapons demonstrations from North Korea, with potentially longer-range missile demonstrations to test Washington's resolve in its nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang.
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Iran
commentary
Why Biden Can't Turn Back the Clock on the Iran Nuclear Deal
Raphael S. Cohen
Mar 1, 2021
The Hill
Enacted in 2016, the Iran nuclear deal was predicated on a geopolitical context that no longer exists. Addressing Iran's nuclear program today may require a different solution.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Arms Control Held Hostage
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Dec 28, 2020
The Hill
President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
'Vaccine Nationalism,' a Pandemic Election, Women in the Workforce: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 30, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on why 'vaccine nationalism' could be costly, how Americans feel about voting during a pandemic, why women are leaving the workforce, and more.
Read More »
Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Sep 28, 2020
The National Interest
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
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North Korea
commentary
In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Aug 17, 2020
The National Interest
North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.
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South Korea
commentary
Moon's North Korea Vision Up in Smoke? Not So Fast…
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Jul 20, 2020
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
Even after North Korea's demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office, it appears that South Korean President Moon Jae-in will continue to prioritize improving inter-Korean relations. What are the implications of this strategy?
Read More »
Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia
Luke Griffith
Jul 1, 2020
RealClearPolicy
By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.
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Quoted

As shown in Afghanistan, the United States faces a tradeoff between incorporating allied views into U.S. decisions and compromising allies' support for U.S. policy. If the United States is serious about strengthening alliances and burden-sharing, this may require finding ways to better incorporate allied concerns into U.S. decisionmaking.

Andrew Radin

Political Scientist

Source: War on the Rocks

The nuclear weapons the United States already has should be adequate to counter the threat posed by new Chinese missiles even under very pessimistic assumptions. And if U.S. officials eventually decide they have to target the Chinese silos, nonnuclear weapons and sensors would provide a more credible deterrent than building additional nuclear weapons would.

Edward Geist

Policy Researcher

Source: The Washington Post

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Arms Proliferation and Control

Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy

North Korea's 'Business as Usual' Missile Provocations

Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation

Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan

Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap

COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices

Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim's Atomic Appetite? Think Again

Why Biden Can't Turn Back the Clock on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Arms Control Held Hostage

'Vaccine Nationalism,' a Pandemic Election, Women in the Workforce: RAND Weekly Recap

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

Moon's North Korea Vision Up in Smoke? Not So Fast…

Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia

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