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Arms Proliferation and Control

Drug Markets and Supply
commentary
What Will the Opioid Crisis Look Like in Five Years?
Jirka Taylor, Peter Reuter
Nov 18, 2019
Concord Monitor in New Hampshire
Despite variations in European opioid markets, there is an overarching commonality too: Once a synthetic opioid like fentanyl becomes dominant, it stays that way. The United States should prepare for fentanyl and other synthetic opioids as a lasting phenomenon. Learning from other countries' experiences is an important part of that effort.
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North Korea
commentary
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jul 15, 2019
The National Interest
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
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North Korea
commentary
How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jul 2, 2019
The Hill
The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.
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Iran
commentary
A Post-2020 U.S. Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Elisa Catalano Ewers
Jun 20, 2019
Foreign Policy
Now that the United States is out of the Iran nuclear deal, signing back on will not be as simple or as practical as some may hope. Too much has happened since it was first inked in 2015. With the political landscape in Tehran and Washington still taking shape, those who want to return to some kind of deal should start planning.
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North Korea
commentary
One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes
Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Jun 17, 2019
The Hill
After two summits between the United States and North Korea, and little to show in the way of deliverables on dismantlement, hopes that a third summit may yield a denuclearization deal seem a bit unrealistic. Essentially, there has been no indication of intent on Kim's part to denuclearize. But the North Korea problem is much greater than nukes.
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North Korea
commentary
Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jun 5, 2019
East Asia Forum
North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Where Do U.S.-North Korea Relations Go in the Aftermath of the Hanoi Summit?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Mar 13, 2019
The National Interest
If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.
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North Korea
commentary
After the Hanoi Summit
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Mar 13, 2019
The National Interest
The best-case scenario for U.S.-North Korea relations is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un remain committed to diplomacy. In the worst-case scenario, both countries' frustrations could spiral out of control.
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North Korea
commentary
The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr, Gian Gentile
Mar 12, 2019
The National Interest
In an era of global competition in which U.S. military resources are stretched thin, the United States should consider looking for opportunities to scale back potential overcommitment. The current inter-Korean dialogue presents such an opportunity.
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North Korea
commentary
Declaring an End to the Korean War
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Feb 28, 2019
USA Today
President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might agree at their summit this week in Hanoi, Vietnam, to declare an end to the Korean War. Since this conflict stopped 66 years ago, what would be the practical impact of such declaration?
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Iran
commentary
Behind the 'Surprise' Resignation of Iran's Foreign Minister
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Feb 26, 2019
Foreign Policy
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, announced his resignation after a nearly six-year tenure. His resignation has sparked as much controversy as his tenure, one dominated by overtures to the West and resulting tensions at home. Although his departure will likely be felt most acutely in Europe, it may have a deeper impact in Tehran.
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North Korea
commentary
Engagement with North Korea: Small Steps May Matter More Than Big Ones
Rafiq Dossani, Heejin Kim
Feb 21, 2019
RealClearWorld
Kim Jong-Un has said he wants North Korea to become a normal country. Agreeing to a series of short-term measures could reveal his truthfulness as much as large measures could. This could also pave the way to eventually achieving the larger goals.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Warsaw Summit Is No Madrid
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Feb 13, 2019
New Republic
The peace process begun in Madrid nearly 30 years ago showed promise, but ultimately stalled, and will need rethinking to adapt to today's Middle East. The world could use a worthy successor. The Warsaw summit probably isn't it.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Feb 6, 2019
The National Interest
It's difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. At the first, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Kim keeps stalling, serious tensions could follow.
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United States
blog
State of the Union 2019: Insights from RAND
Feb 6, 2019
To shed light on a wide range of topics that figured in President Trump's second State of the Union address, we've rounded up insights from some of RAND's objective and nonpartisan research, analysis, and expertise.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Congress Can Save Arms Control
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Greg Thielmann
Nov 27, 2018
The Hill
The Trump administration is seeking agreements with North Korea and Iran to eliminate their nuclear arms potential. Success may hinge on cooperation between the White House and Congress.
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