Asymmetric Warfare

Asymmetric Warfare
commentary
Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Apr 6, 2022
The Hill
While insurgency rarely offers a path to early victory, a campaign of popular resistance that supports the continuing conventional battle could give overmatched Ukraine an edge in its fight against Russian occupiers.
Read More »

Taiwan
commentary
What the Invasion of Ukraine Might Teach Us About a Potential Taiwan Crisis
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Mar 17, 2022
War on the Rocks
Chinese leaders are learning from the conflict in Ukraine, not just by observing Russia's actions, but also the West's response. By also learning from the conflict, the United States, Taiwan, and other like-minded partners can help ensure that Beijing comes away from the current crisis with a greater appreciation of the risks that attacking Taiwan would entail.
Read More »
Ukraine
commentary
What Kind of Resistance Can Ukraine Mount?
Stephen J. Flanagan, Marta Kepe @martakepe
Feb 28, 2022
Defense News
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered general mobilization, and Ukrainians are already engaging in irregular warfare and preparing for a prolonged resistance. What might a comprehensive Ukrainian resistance entail? What is the potential effectiveness, and what are the risks? What support could the international community provide?
Read More »
International Diplomacy
commentary
Stabilizing China-India Relations in 2021: Is This Possible?
Rafiq Dossani
Feb 2, 2021
The National Interest
China-India relations seem to be at their lowest point in decades. The Ladakh confrontation is fraught with the risk of escalation. But both countries have much to gain from a compromise. Leadership on both sides could help by focusing on the long-term gains in a spirit of give-and-take.
Read More »
Military Strategy
q&a
The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen
Sep 8, 2020
What will the next decade of warfare look like? Raphael Cohen led a project to answer that question for the U.S. Air Force. The team considered not just technological or force changes, but also how global politics, economics, and the environment will shift and evolve between now and 2030.
Read More »
China
blog
China in 2050, Using Mobile Tools to Track COVID-19, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap
Jul 31, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the future of U.S.-China competition, privacy concerns surrounding mobile tools used to track COVID-19, how telemedicine can help patients access specialized care, and more.
Read More »
Libya
commentary
Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?
Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke
Jun 2, 2020
Defense One
The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?
Read More »
Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory
Raphael S. Cohen
Jan 22, 2020
War on the Rocks
Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.
Read More »
Iran
commentary
Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence
Jordan R. Reimer @Jordan_R_Reimer
Jan 17, 2020
The World Post
Last year, Iran faced protests at home as well as in Iraq and Lebanon, where thousands rallied against Tehran's regional hegemony. But with its recent machinations and the fallout over the killing of Soleimani, Iran has succeeded in changing the regional conversation.
Read More »
Iran
commentary
How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?
Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ariane M. Tabatabai
Jan 7, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.
Read More »
Warfare and Military Operations
commentary
Bad Idea: Assuming the Small Wars Era Is Over
Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans, Alexandra Stark
Dec 18, 2019
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The national security community doesn't need to deny the potential for future great power conflict—or neglect to prepare for it—in order to acknowledge the enduring reality of asymmetric threats. Containing, resolving, and even preventing smaller conflicts is essential to avoiding bigger ones.
Read More »
Artificial Intelligence
commentary
AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution
Daniel Egel, Eric Robinson @RobinsonEricD, Charles T. Cleveland, Christopher Oates
Oct 31, 2019
War on the Rocks
How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?
Read More »
Russia
commentary
Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea: How NATO Can Up Its Game
Stephen J. Flanagan, Irina A. Chindea @ichindea
Sep 24, 2019
The RAND Blog
In March 2019, RAND brought together a group of security experts to discuss Russia's strategy in the Black Sea region, and what Western countries can do to protect common interests and counter Moscow's malign influence there.
Read More »
Urban Warfare
commentary
Urban Legend: Is Combat in Cities Really Inevitable?
David E. Johnson @DaveJohnsonDC
May 7, 2019
War on the Rocks
Future combat will take place in dense urban areas and likely in megacities. These are the new “truths” that are taking hold in the U.S. military. But before going all-in on optimizing for urban operations, the U.S. military should take a deep breath and think carefully about future operations within the context of the National Defense Strategy.
Read More »
Russia
commentary
Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe
Raphael S. Cohen, Andrew Radin @andrewmradin
Feb 26, 2019
War on the Rocks
They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one.
Read More »
Military Force Planning
commentary
The Chairman the Pentagon Needs
Paula G. Thornhill, Mara E. Karlin
Jan 5, 2018
War on the Rocks
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford says that to fight and win 21st century wars, the department should find a way to globally integrate below the secretary of defense. To do so, the chairman's role would have to expand to allow him to advise the secretary on the allocation and transfer of forces for transregional, multi-functional, and multi-domain operations.
Read More »
Asymmetric Warfare
commentary
Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
Raphael S. Cohen
Aug 3, 2017
War on the Rocks
After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza.
Read More »
Gaza Strip
commentary
Hamas's Strategic Rebranding
Colin P. Clarke
May 17, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Hamas has unveiled a revised version of its charter that appears to soften the group's stance toward Israel. Does this represent a shift away from violence and toward a more lasting and peaceful political presence? Or is it a ploy to buy time to rearm?
Read More »
Security Cooperation
commentary
Hezbollah Is Winning the War in Syria
Colin P. Clarke, Chad C. Serena
Jan 30, 2017
The National Interest
Most parties have been on the losing side of the war in Syria. Meanwhile, Lebanese terrorist militia Hezbollah has cemented its status as a regional power player. The group has gained fighting experience and benefited from a growing alliance with the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia.
Read More »
Counterinsurgency
commentary
Can the Islamic State Lose Mosul and Still Win?
Seth G. Jones
Oct 31, 2016
Foreign Policy
The loss of Mosul would be a serious blow for the Islamic State but past insurgencies suggest it is far too early to count the Islamic State out.
Read More »
The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Islamic State May Be Down, but It's Far from Out
Colin P. Clarke, Chad C. Serena
May 23, 2016
Reuters
The Islamic State's loss of territory, money, and recruits would seem to demonstrate significant progress by the U.S.-led coalition. But if there is one accepted truism in the battle against the group, it is that its leaders intend to fight to the death to establish an Islamic caliphate.
Read More »
Urban Warfare
commentary
A New Kind of Battlefield Awaits the U.S. Military — Megacities
Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke
Apr 6, 2016
Reuters, The Great Debate blog
Megacities are urban areas that seep into one another and have more than 10 million inhabitants. To counter violent non-state actors operating in megacities in the future, the U.S. military will have to be able to piece together a comprehensive and actionable intelligence picture, and under enormously challenging circumstances.
Read More »
United States Army
commentary
Planning for the 'Army of the Future'
David E. Johnson @DaveJohnsonDC
Feb 17, 2016
The Hill
What must the Army be ready to do as part of a joint force, now and in the future? What capacities and capabilities should the Army have in order to be ready? The NCFA comes up short in its answers to both of these questions.
Read More »
Military Strategy
commentary
The Strange Debates of Strategy
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr
Jan 14, 2016
War on the Rocks
The United States and its allies confront a specific form of statecraft; not new, in all its characteristics, but real and relevant. And most observers who have looked at the problem tend to agree that the U.S. is ill-prepared for such tactics, in part because it simply has not thought of them as a coherent approach worthy of a tailored response.
Read More »
Operational Readiness
commentary
Ground Combat
David E. Johnson @DaveJohnsonDC
Dec 23, 2015
The Cipher Brief
The U.S. Army needs to pay attention to state-sponsored irregular forces, whose numbers are growing. Such groups represent the type of adversary U.S. ground forces are likely to face.
Read More »
Counterterrorism
commentary
Anonymous vs. ISIS: Wishing the Vigilante Hackers Luck Against the Murderous Jihadists
Michael A. Brown, Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Dec 14, 2015
New York Daily News
While ISIL uses the Internet to recruit fighters and incite violence, the Anonymous counter initiative could lower the volume of the online echo chamber, and yield support for the war against ISIL and its extremist ilk.
Read More »
Security Cooperation
commentary
To Defeat ISIS, Focus on Its Real Sources of Strength
Benjamin Bahney, Patrick B. Johnston
Dec 4, 2015
The National Interest
The threat ISIS poses today is graver than ever for two reasons: its war chest and its ability to attract foreign recruits are both at their peak. Redoubling international efforts to cut off ISIS from these two pillars of its war machine is necessary to sap the group's strength.
Read More »
Missile Defense
q&a
South Korea's Missile-Defense System Decision: Q&A with Bruce Bennett
Apr 3, 2015
What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.
Read More »
Asymmetric Warfare
blog
Dialogue on Asymmetric Threats Concludes Two-Day Workshop on U.S. and Israeli Security Challenges
Jan 16, 2015
Few nations have more experience with asymmetric conflicts than Israel and the United States. At the National Press Club in Washington, Brian Michael Jenkins of RAND and Admiral Amichay Ayalon, former director of Shin Bet, Israel's security agency, discussed the dynamics of the changing security environment.
Read More »
Military Strategy
blog
7 Lessons from 13 Years of War
Oct 16, 2014
RAND senior international policy analyst Linda Robinson addressed the annual Army USA Conference in Washington to present new research that distills lessons learned from the U.S. experience in the last 13 years of war.
Read More »
Asymmetric Warfare
commentary
A Broad Approach to Countering the Islamic State
Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 2, 2014
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Recent analysis about how to defeat the Islamic State tends to be based on no more than intuition, a general sense of history, or a small number of cases of questionable comparability. A study of 71 historical cases of counterinsurgencies should help provide empirical evidence to this important debate.
Read More »
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
The Foreign Policy Essay: The Limits of Small Footprints
Stephen Watts
Mar 31, 2014
Lawfare
The history of “small-footprint approaches” should be sobering. It suggests that such approaches are good at preventing allied governments from losing against rebels, but are not very good at actually winning wars.
Read More »
United States Army
commentary
Failure to Learn: Reflections on a Career in the Post-Vietnam Army
David E. Johnson @DaveJohnsonDC
Jan 27, 2014
War on the Rocks
In the aftermath of a decade of war, the Army must have an objective, serious debate — one that it never engaged in after Vietnam — to understand its experiences, both good and bad.
Read More »
Afghanistan
blog
Weighing Afghanistan in 2013 Against the Counterinsurgency Scorecard
Oct 21, 2013
Early 2013 Afghanistan ranks among the historical counterinsurgency winners, but its score is equal to those of the lowest-scoring historical wins. This tenuous position points to several areas in need of improvement.
Read More »
Syria
commentary
Syria As We Know It Is Gone
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Oct 16, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Other than as a geographic expression, Syria has ceased to exist, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. With Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, Bashar Assad's forces, at the moment, appear to have gained the initiative over a fragmented rebel movement.
Read More »
Asymmetric Warfare
blog
Christopher Paul Receives Fulbright Specialist Award
Oct 2, 2013
Christopher Paul, a senior social scientist at RAND, has been selected for a Fulbright Specialist project in New Zealand at Massey University's Centre for Defence and Security Studies during October and November.
Read More »
Military Strategy
commentary
Paths to Victory in the Australian Defence and Security Context
Christopher Paul
Oct 2, 2013
The Strategist
The historical importance of commitment and motivation and the need to overmatch insurgents suggest that Australia should weigh any commitment of support against existing conditions, those that can be changed and those that can't, writes Christopher Paul.
Read More »
Asymmetric Warfare
blog
New RAND Report Updates, Expands Research on Successful Counterinsurgency Approaches
Sep 27, 2013
When a country is threatened by an insurgency, what efforts give its government the best chance of prevailing? A new update to a RAND 2010 study expands the data set of 30 insurgencies to 71 and compares all 71 of them begun and completed worldwide since World War II.
Read More »
International Diplomacy
commentary
Why Erdogan Wants Peace with the PKK
F. Stephen Larrabee
Mar 27, 2013
Foreign Affairs
With the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) now apparently ready to try to peacefully resolve differences with Turkey, the prospects that the uprising will come to an end have improved, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
Read More »
Gaza Strip
blog
Gaza: Hard Fighting Looms Without a Broader Peace Strategy
Nov 20, 2012
The United States and Israel should capitalize on Egypt's active role in mediating a cease-fire and thus revisit initiatives like the Arab Peace Initiative, which in the new regional strategic environment may be the best hope of reviving the moribund peace process before it is too late.
Read More »
Nation Building
commentary
Difficult Questions on Afghanistan and Pakistan
Jonah Blank
Oct 17, 2012
The RAND Blog
In Afghanistan, the U.S. military has been fighting the longest war in the nation’s history--and many Americans don't understand why. The final presidential debate on Monday affords President Obama and Governor Romney an excellent opportunity to provide answers, writes Jonah Blank.
Read More »
Global Security
commentary
Syrian Scenarios
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Aug 8, 2012
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, may be no outcome at all, but instead a civil war lasting years. The conflict has become an existential struggle for its participants—their survival is at stake, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Read More »
Global Security
blog
The Case for Expanding Assistance to the Syrian Opposition
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Aug 1, 2012
What is important for the U.S. government to do at this stage is forge relationships with those likely to next govern Syria. The United States should up its assistance to the rebels, providing military assets needed for success that only the United States possesses in adequate number.
Read More »
Military Strategy
commentary
Anatomy of a War Game
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jun 12, 2012
World Policy Blog
War games are especially important as countries prepare to counter adversaries who use asymmetric strategies or weapons, forcing military planners to deal with unfamiliar threats, writes Bruce Bennett.
Read More »
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
History Favors More Time
Christopher Paul
Apr 3, 2012
NYTimes.com
The Afghans will have better prospects for defeating their insurgency with continued improvement, of course, and the United States can contribute to that improvement while American forces remain, writes Christopher Paul.
Read More »
Iraq
commentary
The Real Analogy for Iraq
John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt
Aug 24, 2007
United Press International
The conflict raging in Iraq has been compared to many earlier wars, but the best historical comparison has been largely overlooked, write John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt in a commentary appearing in United Press International.
Read More »
commentary
Ad Men for U.S. Defense
Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Russell W. Glenn, Christopher Paul
Aug 20, 2007
United Press International
Improving the U.S. military's brand identity demands more than just a catchy new slogan. While communications can help explain U.S. policies, the behavior of every soldier, sailor, airman and marine is what ultimately determines how civilians view U.S. forces, write Todd Helmus, Russell Glenn and Christopher Paul in a commentary appearing in United Press International.
Read More »
commentary
The View from Ground Zero: Is America Safer?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 12, 2004
San Diego Union-Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Read More »
commentary
Mao as Guide to Fight in Iraq
Ralph Masi
Jan 4, 2004
San Francisco Chronicle
And strange as it may seem, a look at the thoughts of Chairman Mao on battling an occupying army from 66 years ago may help us make some educated guesses about the challenges facing the United States and the next government of Iraq.
Read More »
commentary
Violence Unraveling the Fabric of Society
Angel Rabasa
Jun 17, 2001
San Diego Union-Tribune
Threats to democracy and stability in the Andean region of South America could confront the United States with its most serious security crisis in this hemisphere since the Central American wars of the 1980s.
Read More »
commentary
A Confounding, Complex Tragedy
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 17, 2001
San Diego Union-Tribune
Without external assistance, Colombia cannot defeat the guerrilla-gangster Minotaur that consumes it. It is in our national interest to help. At the same time, it is necessary that we fully comprehend the harsh realities we and our Colombian allies face.
Read More »