Asymmetric Warfare

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The Congressionally Authorized Irregular Warfare Functional Center Is a Historic Opportunity: Will the Department of Defense Capitalize on It?

The U.S. Department of Defense may be facing a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fix a critical gap in its national security arsenal. Congress has authorized the creation of an institution dedicated to the study and research of irregular warfare. Unfortunately, initial indications are that this opportunity might not be realized.

Charles T. Cleveland, Daniel Egel, et al.

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Beware the Explosive Vessels

The initial explosion that damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge may have come from an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV). If it was indeed caused by a USV, it could be a portent of future warfare. Military and homeland security authorities may need to anticipate the potential use of USVs by adversaries or terrorists.

Scott Savitz

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Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?

While insurgency rarely offers a path to early victory, a campaign of popular resistance that supports the continuing conventional battle could give overmatched Ukraine an edge in its fight against Russian occupiers.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

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What the Invasion of Ukraine Might Teach Us About a Potential Taiwan Crisis

Chinese leaders are learning from the conflict in Ukraine, not just by observing Russia's actions, but also the West's response. By also learning from the conflict, the United States, Taiwan, and other like-minded partners can help ensure that Beijing comes away from the current crisis with a greater appreciation of the risks that attacking Taiwan would entail.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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What Kind of Resistance Can Ukraine Mount?

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered general mobilization, and Ukrainians are already engaging in irregular warfare and preparing for a prolonged resistance. What might a comprehensive Ukrainian resistance entail? What is the potential effectiveness, and what are the risks? What support could the international community provide?

Stephen J. Flanagan, Marta Kepe @martakepe

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Stabilizing China-India Relations in 2021: Is This Possible?

China-India relations seem to be at their lowest point in decades. The Ladakh confrontation is fraught with the risk of escalation. But both countries have much to gain from a compromise. Leadership on both sides could help by focusing on the long-term gains in a spirit of give-and-take.

Rafiq Dossani

q&a

The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen

What will the next decade of warfare look like? Raphael Cohen led a project to answer that question for the U.S. Air Force. The team considered not just technological or force changes, but also how global politics, economics, and the environment will shift and evolve between now and 2030.

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China in 2050, Using Mobile Tools to Track COVID-19, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the future of U.S.-China competition, privacy concerns surrounding mobile tools used to track COVID-19, how telemedicine can help patients access specialized care, and more.

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Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?

Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke

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The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory

Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence

Last year, Iran faced protests at home as well as in Iraq and Lebanon, where thousands rallied against Tehran's regional hegemony. But with its recent machinations and the fallout over the killing of Soleimani, Iran has succeeded in changing the regional conversation.

Jordan R. Reimer

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How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?

Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.

Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ariane M. Tabatabai

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Bad Idea: Assuming the Small Wars Era Is Over

The national security community doesn't need to deny the potential for future great power conflict—or neglect to prepare for it—in order to acknowledge the enduring reality of asymmetric threats. Containing, resolving, and even preventing smaller conflicts is essential to avoiding bigger ones.

Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans, Alexandra Stark

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AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution

How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?

Daniel Egel, Eric Robinson @RobinsonEricD, et al.

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Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea: How NATO Can Up Its Game

In March 2019, RAND brought together a group of security experts to discuss Russia's strategy in the Black Sea region, and what Western countries can do to protect common interests and counter Moscow's malign influence there.

Stephen J. Flanagan, Irina A. Chindea @ichindea