Australia

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Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.

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Is Australia's Defense Strategy Based on a Mistaken Assumption?

The concept of “impactful projection” has become a topic of heightened interest in the Australian strategic discourse, as pundits wait on further information from the Defense Strategic Review. But is the concept underpinned by a fundamentally mistaken assumption?

Marigold Black, Austin Wyatt

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Strategic Advantage, Sovereignty and Australia's Geopolitical Identity

In Australia, which has experienced few national existential crises, there appears to be little understanding of or consideration given to all the nuanced contours of winning. Australia may need to critically assess its strategic traditions to develop a broader conceptualization of how to secure the safety and well-being of the nation and position itself advantageously.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

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Russia's Invasion of Ukraine May Harden U.S. Indo-Pacific Allies

The effects of Russia's war against Ukraine stretch worldwide as countries watch Ukraine's unfolding tragedy to glean possible lessons for their own security. Understanding how Australia and Japan are perceiving the conflict could be critical for allied strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Jeffrey W. Hornung, Hayley Channer

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Making AUKUS Work

In September 2021, President Biden announced the creation of AUKUS, a trilateral, experimental arrangement among the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom focused on defense technology. The barriers to success are numerous but the partnership could offer significant opportunities.

Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, Alan Tidwell

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Not So Quiet on the Southern Front

Australia faces stiff geopolitical competition in Antarctica, and it's not just China and Russia with eyes on the prize. If the Antarctic becomes a hub of geopolitical tension, Australia may need to revise its strategy.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

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The Definition of Mobilisation

In Australia, the prevailing view of mobilisation is that it is an activity associated with going to war. But it should also include preparing for, and where possible, preventing a range of potential hazards, as well as supporting subsequent recovery efforts.

Joanne Nicholson, Marigold Black, et al.

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The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats

Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

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Australian and U.S. Military Health Professionals Can Help Address Pacific Island Needs

Australia and the United States can combine their military health capabilities to help improve the long-term health security of Pacific island countries. These partnerships should be carefully planned and focus on enduring engagement.

David Brewster, Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, et al.

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Australia Contained COVID-19 Early On. Can It Do the Same with Synthetic Opioids?

Australia is at risk of a fentanyl problem, but it is better prepared than North America. If the country can make the same kind of concerted effort it did to keep COVID-19 at bay, that could save thousands of lives.

Bryce Pardo, Shann Hulme, et al.

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What to Expect When You're Expecting So Much from the Quad

In March, the leaders of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia met virtually for their first Quadrilateral Security Dialogue group meeting. What are the goals of the Quad? What tangibly can or will the Quad do and what does it look like in practice?

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Australian Naval Shipbuilding: First Things First

Australia will soon begin production of Attack-class submarines and Hunter-class frigates, ostensibly bringing more than $100 billion in new naval ship construction to domestic industry. While many in political and labour circles see this as a boon for Australian companies, actual domestic spending may be far less than imagined.

Paul DeLuca, Roger Lough

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RCEP Forms the World's Largest Trading Bloc. What Does This Mean for Global Trade?

In November, 15 nations signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free-trade agreement of economic and political significance eight years in the making. Why have some heralded RCEP as a landmark agreement?

Tobias Sytsma

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The Quad Is Poised to Become Openly Anti-China Soon

What has been striking about the Quad thus far is that it has resisted openly identifying China as the primary target it seeks to rein in. If the Quad is to be sustained, then it will likely have to come to grips with a forward-leaning approach to opposing Chinese activities.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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The Indo-Pacific Contest: It Could be Time for Fresh Ideas on Allied Security Cooperation

U.S. and Australian interests in the Pacific and Southeast Asia face unprecedented challenges from China, and Australia may not be able to handle them on its own. Momentum is growing for heightened cooperation between Australia and the United States.

John Blaxland, Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney

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Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China

The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Australia's Fires, Artificial Intelligence, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Australia's devastating fires, how artificial intelligence could manipulate the masses, the fentanyl crisis, and more.

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Australia's Fires: Respond Now, but Also Measure Toll on People for the Future

As an Australian, Melissa Finucane has watched with anguish as massive bushfires devastated wide swaths of her home country. As a researcher who studies community resilience, she can't help but think of how much blood, sweat, tears, and money will be required to recover.

Melissa L. Finucane @MelissaFinucane

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B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Is Handy, but It May Not Be the Perfect Fit

Some in the Australian defence community have called for significant changes to the Australian Defence Force structure in response to changing global strategic conditions. Before Australia considers any new long-range strike capabilities, an analysis of alternatives that examines both cost and capability is essential.

Carl Rhodes

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Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating

Whether Australia should operate and maintain nuclear-propelled attack submarines has been debated for years. While controversial to some, the option of nuclear subs in Australia's future fleet may be a useful alternative given trends in the country's security environment.

John Birkler, Robert Murphy

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How the U.S. Is Thinking About the Quad

The United States has been consistent in discussing the security objectives it seeks to promote through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But U.S. interactions with other Quad partners have likely convinced Washington to repackage public presentation of the dialogue proceedings and manage its expectations of what the Quad can realistically achieve.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China—and Now's the Time to Do It

Even in its resurrected form, the Quad could be in danger of failing to achieve its mission. The Quad might consider getting its house in order by extending dialogue partnerships to ASEAN maritime counterclaimant states.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Is India the Weakest Link in the Quad?

India's sustained membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue would fit with the goal of balancing against China to deter it from further militarizing the Indo-Pacific. But New Dehli may be getting cold feet.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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The Quad: Second Verse, Same as the First?

Members of “the Quad”—an informal collaborative arrangement among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia—have proven incapable of adopting either a shared understanding of or unified policies toward China.

Ali Wyne

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The Potential of the Quadrilateral

The countries of the Quadrilateral Security Framework are the region's four most capable maritime powers, and are naturally concerned with China's assault on international rules and norms. If ever put in place, the Quad could contribute to the maintenance of security and order in the Indo-Pacific maritime commons.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Gaming Policy in Cyberspace

Hacked devices and intellectual property theft are a rich hunting ground for policy development. The challenge posed by Internet-connect devices is only getting worse as the number of online devices continues to grow.

Michelle Price, Igor Mikolic-Torreira

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Five Eyes at 70: Where to from Here?

The Five Eyes intelligence alliance of the U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand began in the Cold War to meet the threat posed by the Soviet Union. Today, the nations' intelligence communities must contend with domestic terrorism and cyber threats while remaining ahead of Russia and China.

Cameron Colquhoun, Bradley M. Knopp, et al.

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Three Ways to Improve Australia's Intelligence Capability

Intelligence agencies should become centers of expertise, focus on what matters for their customers, and coordinate a network of partners. To better deliver on these three priorities, the Australian Intelligence Community should consider a leadership structure with authority to guide and coordinate these processes.

Arzan Tarapore

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Could the Sydney Cafe Siege Happen Elsewhere?

As the world mourns those lost in the Sydney cafe siege, investigations have begun examining the efficacy of Australia's anti-terrorism measures and details about the background and motives of the gunman. At the same time, terrorism experts are reflecting on where else such an attack could emerge.

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Measuring Impact: How Australia and the UK Are Tackling Research Assessment

The UK is the first country to attempt to allocate funding based on the wider societal impact of research, and in 2012, a subset of higher education institutions in Australia ran a small-scale pilot exercise to assess impact and understand the potential challenges of the process. What can be learned by comparing the UK and Australian approaches?

Catriona Manville

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Paths to Victory in the Australian Defence and Security Context

The historical importance of commitment and motivation and the need to overmatch insurgents suggest that Australia should weigh any commitment of support against existing conditions, those that can be changed and those that can't, writes Christopher Paul.

Christopher Paul

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Green Buildings, Jobs and Summits

If the United States is to be a global competitor in green building technology, it needs to learn from some of the countries that are at the table in Pittsburgh this week, writes Charles Ries.

Charles P. Ries @charles_ries

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The New Politics of the Pacific Sends Shudders Through Australia

Like everyone else concerned with Asia, Australia also is taking a hard look at China's future, as well as at Washington's approach to it. It's not clear that Canberra and Washington see eye to eye.

Robert E. Hunter