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Ballistic Missiles

Military Strategy
commentary
Is Japan's Interest in Enemy Base Attack Capabilities a Good Idea?
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jul 17, 2020
War on the Rocks
In the span of a month, Tokyo has rapidly gone from canceling a ballistic missile defense system to considering strike capabilities against foreign adversaries. Is Japan on the precipice of dramatically changing the way it uses its military?
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Japan
commentary
Japan Is Canceling a U.S. Missile Defense System
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jul 6, 2020
Foreign Policy
In June, Japan canceled its planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense systems. This decision is understandable, but that doesn't negate the problems it could pose for Japanese security and Japan's relationship with the United States.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020
Naoko Aoki
Jan 27, 2020
East Asia Forum
North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.
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North Korea
commentary
Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks
Naoko Aoki
Jun 5, 2019
East Asia Forum
North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.
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Missile Defense
commentary
Japan's Aegis Ashore Defense System
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Aug 20, 2018
Yomiuri Shimbun
For nearly 20 years, Japan has used the North Korea threat as a legitimate rationale to build its missile defense system and cooperate closely with the U.S. in its development. This argument remains as true today as it was before the flurry of regional diplomacy began earlier this year.
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North Korea
blog
Preparing for U.S.-North Korea Talks: Insights from Researcher Bruce Bennett
Apr 5, 2018
What are the chances that a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and President Trump will lead to meaningful progress? And what should U.S. leaders be thinking about as they prepare? RAND's Bruce Bennett discusses.
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Ballistic Missiles
commentary
Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge
Richard H. Speier
Mar 29, 2018
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Within 10 years, hypersonic missiles are likely to be deployed and offered on the international market. But there is time for action by states that do not want hypersonic missiles to flourish in their neighborhoods. It is time to move toward heading off this threat while it is still possible to do so.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Red Glare: The Origin and Implications of Russia's 'New' Nuclear Weapons
Austin Long
Mar 26, 2018
War on the Rocks
Why would Russia, which has over 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear warheads that can be delivered from existing ballistic and cruise missiles, invest in new, exotic systems? The answer is deeply rooted in modern Russian and Soviet history.
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Submarines
commentary
Location, Location, Location: Evaluating Risks to Submarines from Low-Yield Warhead and Submarine Missile Launch Detection
Austin Long
Mar 12, 2018
Lawfare
Experts can argue that a low-yield SLBM might not be worth deploying as it would put U.S. submarines at unacceptable risk. But the costs to adversaries to develop the capability to target U.S. submarines with nuclear weapons are substantial. In contrast, the costs to the United States are low, requiring only modification to an existing warhead.
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Ballistic Missiles
commentary
Discrimination Details Matter: Clarifying an Argument About Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads
Austin Long
Feb 16, 2018
War on the Rocks
Nuclear forces and nuclear strategy are complex and the facts surrounding them are often shrouded in classification. But if the United States were to deploy a low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead in the future, an adversary would face the same problems as it does today in knowing what the missile contains.
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Emergency Preparedness
commentary
Deadly Delay: Every Second Counts in Missile Defense
Daniel Gonzales @gonzadan, Sarah Harting
Jan 24, 2018
The Hill
The false alarm about a ballistic missile attack on Hawaii raises important questions. How much warning time would the public get before a missile hit? And how should the system be improved?
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Missile Defense
commentary
Is Iron Dome a Poisoned Chalice? Strategic Risks from Tactical Success
Elizabeth M. Bartels @elliebartels
Nov 29, 2017
The Strategy Bridge
While Iron Dome's past success in defending Israel makes it a tempting solution to future challenges, it does have shortcomings. This becomes even more serious when considering using the system in Korea, where the threat posed is substantially greater, and the targeted terrain substantially harder to defend.
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Missile Defense
commentary
Why Japan Needs Long-Range Strike Capabilities
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Oct 23, 2017
Defense One
Japan's pacifist constitution allows it to exercise force only when its survival is threatened and there are no other means to repel the attack. But North Korea's advancing military capabilities have drastically changed the threat environment. Japan no longer has the luxury to be complacent about its security threats.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
commentary
Beyond Strategic Patience with North Korea: What Comes Next?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Sep 8, 2017
The Ripon Forum
North Korea says that nuclear weapons are essential to regime survival. The United States should figure out how to persuade the North Korean regime that it is less likely to survive by posing a nuclear threat than by cooperating with the international community.
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Missile Defense
commentary
Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Aug 7, 2017
The Korea Times
As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.
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Ballistic Missiles
commentary
A Surgical Strike Against North Korea? Not a Viable Option
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jul 14, 2017
Fox News Channel
North Korea's July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit American soil has renewed talk of military intervention. But an effective limited military strike with minimal collateral damage and no escalation simply won't work.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Trump Should Confront Kim Over ICBM Tests
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jan 6, 2017
USA Today
Whether successful or not, an ICBM test by North Korea would be very much against U.S. interests and President-elect Trump should act to counter it as early as possible. A turn to the basics of deterrence would be the path most likely to succeed.
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Ballistic Missiles
commentary
The Future of Hypersonic Weapons
Daniel M. Norton
Oct 20, 2016
The Cipher Brief
Russia and China appear to be developing hypersonic weapons. But the United States should make decisions about whether to develop its own hypersonic weapons in a vacuum.
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Military Strategy
commentary
The Grim Lessons of 'Protective Edge'
Raphael S. Cohen, Gabriel Scheinmann
Sep 3, 2014
The American Interest
For all the attempts to find technological quick fixes or enforce a permanent settlement, Operation Protective Edge has highlighted that a war of attrition, known as a 'long war,' remains the only viable strategy in the current environment.
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Global Security
blog
Korea Tensions Different from Previous 'Normal Crises,' RAND Experts Tell Media
Apr 9, 2013
Three RAND Corporation researchers discussed the regional and global implications of the recent flurry of bluster and provocation emanating from North Korea, during a conference call April 9 with reporters.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korean 'Satellite' May Fall from Sky, but That Won't Deter Kim Jong-Un
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Dec 21, 2012
The RAND Blog
Kim Jong-Un's regime has placed outsized import on its missile launches—despite the risk of alienating the international community—to offset the lack of success across a wide range of topics, writes Bruce Bennett.
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Global Security
commentary
North Korea's Just Getting Started
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Dec 12, 2012
U.S. News & World Report
While many observers of North Korea have been surprised by the apparently peaceful ascension of Kim Jong-Un, there are reasons to believe that the situation in the North is not so stable, writes Bruce Bennett.
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
Turkey Edges Toward Seeking NATO Support in Syria Crisis
Christopher S. Chivvis
Nov 21, 2012
The RAND Blog
As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Getting Value from the U.S.-ROK Summit
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jun 15, 2009
The Korea Herald
For months, North Korea has been trying to upstage the summit between South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama that is scheduled for June 16. Almost all Americans I know have heard of these North Korean provocations. But few have heard anything about the U.S.-ROK summit, writes Bruce Bennett.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
No Surprise in Failure to Deter N. Korea
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jun 2, 2009
Chicago Tribune
North Korea's latest misbehavior highlights an uncomfortable truth: the failure of the United States and the international community to deter North Korean actions. In this case, it is pretty easy to see why North Korea has not been deterred, writes Bruce Bennett.
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North Korea
commentary
N.K. Provocation Suggests Regime in Trouble
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Apr 9, 2009
The Korea Herald
North Korea spent weeks preparing to launch a ballistic missile that could reach the United States. It argued that the launch was intended to put a satellite into orbit. But a space launch vehicle is a ballistic missile used for a modestly different purpose, writes Bruce W. Bennett.
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China
commentary
China's Challenge
Roger Cliff
Jul 29, 2007
San Diego Union-Tribune
China's Challenge, in San Diego Union-Tribune
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commentary
Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe
F. Stephen Larrabee, David E. Mosher
Mar 29, 2007
International Herald Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff: Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe, in International Herald Tribune.
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commentary
Nothing's Free in Dealing with Putin
Robert E. Hunter
Aug 1, 2001
Los Angeles Times
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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commentary
There's a Better Way to Missile Defense
Jeffrey A. Isaacson
May 3, 2001
Los Angeles Times
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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commentary
The China and Nuclear Reunion Is Only a Motive Away
David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz
Feb 24, 2001
Los Angeles Times
Published commentary by RAND staff
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Quoted

Europeans already spend a lot on defense, but that spending is undercut by the redundancies and inefficiencies associated with so many countries building separate forces to serve separate political ends and nurture separate defense industries. The best remedy for that could be collectivization, or at the very least significantly greater coordination.
Michael Shurkin

Senior Political Scientist
Source: RealClearWorld
Insulated from the partisan passions that sunder our politics and our society, a January 6 Commission created by Congress or the Biden administration could analyze whether this was an isolated uprising or the harbinger of more to come. It could make recommendations to prevent such attacks in the future in Washington or at statehouses throughout the country.
Brian Michael Jenkins

Senior Adviser to the RAND President
Source: Los Angeles Times