Ballistic Missiles

commentary

Japan's Potential Acquisition of Ground-Launched Land-Attack Missiles: Implications for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance

If Japan acquired ground-based strike capabilities, it would have significant consequences for the U.S.-Japanese alliance. American and Japanese policymakers may need to have a new and expanded set of conversations about how such capabilities would be used and how the alliance could adjust to incorporate them.

Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold

commentary

Is Japan's Interest in Enemy Base Attack Capabilities a Good Idea?

In the span of a month, Tokyo has rapidly gone from canceling a ballistic missile defense system to considering strike capabilities against foreign adversaries. Is Japan on the precipice of dramatically changing the way it uses its military?

Jeffrey W. Hornung

commentary

Japan Is Canceling a U.S. Missile Defense System

In June, Japan canceled its planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense systems. This decision is understandable, but that doesn't negate the problems it could pose for Japanese security and Japan's relationship with the United States.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

commentary

Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020

North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.

Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki

commentary

Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks

North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.

Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki

commentary

Japan's Aegis Ashore Defense System

For nearly 20 years, Japan has used the North Korea threat as a legitimate rationale to build its missile defense system and cooperate closely with the U.S. in its development. This argument remains as true today as it was before the flurry of regional diplomacy began earlier this year.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

blog

Preparing for U.S.-North Korea Talks: Insights from Researcher Bruce Bennett

What are the chances that a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and President Trump will lead to meaningful progress? And what should U.S. leaders be thinking about as they prepare? RAND's Bruce Bennett discusses.

commentary

Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge

Within 10 years, hypersonic missiles are likely to be deployed and offered on the international market. But there is time for action by states that do not want hypersonic missiles to flourish in their neighborhoods. It is time to move toward heading off this threat while it is still possible to do so.

Richard H. Speier

commentary

Red Glare: The Origin and Implications of Russia's 'New' Nuclear Weapons

Why would Russia, which has over 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear warheads that can be delivered from existing ballistic and cruise missiles, invest in new, exotic systems? The answer is deeply rooted in modern Russian and Soviet history.

Austin Long

commentary

Location, Location, Location: Evaluating Risks to Submarines from Low-Yield Warhead and Submarine Missile Launch Detection

Experts can argue that a low-yield SLBM might not be worth deploying as it would put U.S. submarines at unacceptable risk. But the costs to adversaries to develop the capability to target U.S. submarines with nuclear weapons are substantial. In contrast, the costs to the United States are low, requiring only modification to an existing warhead.

Austin Long

commentary

Discrimination Details Matter: Clarifying an Argument About Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads

Nuclear forces and nuclear strategy are complex and the facts surrounding them are often shrouded in classification. But if the United States were to deploy a low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead in the future, an adversary would face the same problems as it does today in knowing what the missile contains.

Austin Long

commentary

Deadly Delay: Every Second Counts in Missile Defense

The false alarm about a ballistic missile attack on Hawaii raises important questions. How much warning time would the public get before a missile hit? And how should the system be improved?

Daniel Gonzales, Sarah Harting

commentary

Is Iron Dome a Poisoned Chalice? Strategic Risks from Tactical Success

While Iron Dome's past success in defending Israel makes it a tempting solution to future challenges, it does have shortcomings. This becomes even more serious when considering using the system in Korea, where the threat posed is substantially greater, and the targeted terrain substantially harder to defend.

Elizabeth M. Bartels @elliebartels

commentary

Why Japan Needs Long-Range Strike Capabilities

Japan's pacifist constitution allows it to exercise force only when its survival is threatened and there are no other means to repel the attack. But North Korea's advancing military capabilities have drastically changed the threat environment. Japan no longer has the luxury to be complacent about its security threats.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

commentary

Beyond Strategic Patience with North Korea: What Comes Next?

North Korea says that nuclear weapons are essential to regime survival. The United States should figure out how to persuade the North Korean regime that it is less likely to survive by posing a nuclear threat than by cooperating with the international community.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea

As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

A Surgical Strike Against North Korea? Not a Viable Option

North Korea's July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit American soil has renewed talk of military intervention. But an effective limited military strike with minimal collateral damage and no escalation simply won't work.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

Trump Should Confront Kim Over ICBM Tests

Whether successful or not, an ICBM test by North Korea would be very much against U.S. interests and President-elect Trump should act to counter it as early as possible. A turn to the basics of deterrence would be the path most likely to succeed.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

The Future of Hypersonic Weapons

Russia and China appear to be developing hypersonic weapons. But the United States should make decisions about whether to develop its own hypersonic weapons in a vacuum.

Daniel M. Norton

commentary

The Grim Lessons of 'Protective Edge'

For all the attempts to find technological quick fixes or enforce a permanent settlement, Operation Protective Edge has highlighted that a war of attrition, known as a 'long war,' remains the only viable strategy in the current environment.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gabriel Scheinmann

blog

Korea Tensions Different from Previous 'Normal Crises,' RAND Experts Tell Media

Three RAND Corporation researchers discussed the regional and global implications of the recent flurry of bluster and provocation emanating from North Korea, during a conference call April 9 with reporters.

commentary

North Korean 'Satellite' May Fall from Sky, but That Won't Deter Kim Jong-Un

Kim Jong-Un's regime has placed outsized import on its missile launches—despite the risk of alienating the international community—to offset the lack of success across a wide range of topics, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

North Korea's Just Getting Started

While many observers of North Korea have been surprised by the apparently peaceful ascension of Kim Jong-Un, there are reasons to believe that the situation in the North is not so stable, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

Turkey Edges Toward Seeking NATO Support in Syria Crisis

As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border, writes Christopher Chivvis.

Christopher S. Chivvis

commentary

Getting Value from the U.S.-ROK Summit

For months, North Korea has been trying to upstage the summit between South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama that is scheduled for June 16. Almost all Americans I know have heard of these North Korean provocations. But few have heard anything about the U.S.-ROK summit, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

No Surprise in Failure to Deter N. Korea

North Korea's latest misbehavior highlights an uncomfortable truth: the failure of the United States and the international community to deter North Korean actions. In this case, it is pretty easy to see why North Korea has not been deterred, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

N.K. Provocation Suggests Regime in Trouble

North Korea spent weeks preparing to launch a ballistic missile that could reach the United States. It argued that the launch was intended to put a satellite into orbit. But a space launch vehicle is a ballistic missile used for a modestly different purpose, writes Bruce W. Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

China's Challenge

China's Challenge, in San Diego Union-Tribune

Roger Cliff

commentary

Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe

Published commentary by RAND staff: Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe, in International Herald Tribune.

F. Stephen Larrabee, David E. Mosher

commentary

Nothing's Free in Dealing with Putin

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter

commentary

There's a Better Way to Missile Defense

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Jeffrey A. Isaacson

commentary

The China and Nuclear Reunion Is Only a Motive Away

Published commentary by RAND staff

David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz