Belarus

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation

If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Russia's Appetite May Extend Beyond Ukraine

Unless Russian forces are defeated in Ukraine or withdrawn by new Kremlin rulers, Moscow might assault other post-Soviet neighbors. The West may face limits on the extent to which it could help them thwart such attacks.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Moscow Hesitated in Poland—Will It in Belarus?

Forty years ago, Russia used a major military exercise in part to scare Poland's communist leaders into cracking down on protesters. A similar Russian exercise now could be aimed in part at pressuring Belarus. If so, the West could respond in several ways.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Belarusian Mortgage on Russia's Future

In September, President Vladimir Putin signaled that Russia was throwing its weight behind embattled Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. But any move to enforce Putin's will in Belarus could invite tougher Western sanctions and scare investors. This would exacerbate problems facing Russia's flagging economy.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

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Radicalization, the Gender Pay Gap, Israel-UAE Deal: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the potential for a new era of radicalization, insights into the gender pay gap, why the Israel-UAE deal doesn’t merit the hype, and more.

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The West's Role in Belarus

Belarus may be on the verge of political change. If allowed to help, how could the West support free and fair elections and the formation of a legitimate government?

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Michael Haltzel

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Joint Military Exercises Distract from Complex Russia-Belarus Relationship

Analysts and military leaders have concerns that Russia will use the Zapad 2017 exercise in Belarus as a smokescreen to put personnel and equipment in place, and keep it there. But the deep ties and history of cooperation between the two states make the chances of that happening unlikely.

Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock, Bilyana Lilly

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Belarus: Between Russia and the West

Public demonstrations in Minsk and across Russia hint that winds of political change and disillusionment with stagnation and corruption may be reaching both countries. Their leaders will blame the West, try to ride out the protests and, despite differences, will likely stick together.

Kenneth Yalowitz, William Courtney @courtneywmh