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International Diplomacy
commentary
How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 20, 2017
The Cipher Brief
China has key pressure points at its disposal to help deter North Korea from nuclear activities. It could cut off oil supplies or limit other trade, or crack down on illicit finance networks as many of the banks laundering money for the regime are in China. It could also stop shielding Pyongyang at the UN.
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael Chase, Logan Ma
Jun 14, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.
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North Korea
blog
Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia
Jun 8, 2017
The increasing tempo of developments in North Korea is of growing concern not only to South Korea but also to the U.S., Japan, and even China. At a RAND event, senior researcher Bruce Bennett discussed how complex the situation is and what options the U.S. has going forward.
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Politics and Government
commentary
Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jun 2, 2017
Newsweek
President Moon Jae-in is focused on South Korean domestic issues and internal unification. But he needs to prepare for unification with North Korea. He will face challenges whether unification is brought on by peaceful coexistence or as the result of sudden change.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
The Driving Force Behind China's Ambitious 'Belt and Road Initiative'
Rafiq Dossani
May 30, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
By committing trillions of dollars to infrastructure projects across 60 countries, China could transform the lagging economies of the region and place itself in the enviable position of being Asia's true pivot. But the new Silk Road blueprint presents risks as well as benefits.
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Taiwan
commentary
Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 10, 2017
International Security
Prolonged tensions — even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace — are likely if China's President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen cannot reach basic agreement on Taiwan's sovereignty.
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Threat Assessment
commentary
U.S.-China Tensions Are Unlikely to Lead to War
Timothy R. Heath, William R. Thompson
May 1, 2017
The National Interest
The U.S.-China relationship today may be trending towards greater tension, but the relative stability and overall low level of hostility make the prospect of an accidental escalation to war extremely unlikely.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Despite Promising Signs, China's North Korea Policy Unchanged
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Apr 24, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Official statements and public discussions on China's willingness to punish or otherwise influence North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in a direction favorable to U.S. interests have been optimistic lately. But China's continued support of the North should temper expectations.
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North Korea
commentary
China's Role in Dissuading North Korea from a Chemical Weapons Attack
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Apr 24, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
North Korea's brash pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and disregard for chemical weapons norms are enormously troubling. China's engagement will be essential in convincing Kim Jong Un that the use of chemical weapons is a red line that cannot be crossed.
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China
commentary
Rocky Road Ahead Likely for U.S.-China Relations
Timothy R. Heath
Apr 11, 2017
The Cipher Brief
The first summit with President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping downplayed contentious issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. But the differences run deep, and frustration is palpable on both sides. Moreover, the competition for international leadership continues.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Five Dead-Ends — and One Risky Opportunity — When Trump and Xi Talk North Korea
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Apr 10, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Among President Trump's options, proposing a deal that gives the North Korean elite an alternative to its murderous and unstable leader could be the safest and most realistic way to sheath North Korean nuclear weapons and safeguard the American people.
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North Korea
commentary
Murder, Missiles, and Messages from North Korea
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Mar 24, 2017
RealClearWorld
Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile on February 12 — one day before Kim Jong Nam, half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was murdered in Malaysia — and four more on March 6. What would lead North Korea to carry out these provocations?
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why China Will Not Unify with Taiwan by 2020 — and Beijing Lacks Compelling Military Options
Timothy R. Heath
Mar 21, 2017
Lawfare
The prospects for peaceful unification of China and Taiwan continue to dim. Nothing Beijing has tried to woo or coerce Taiwan has worked. For those determined to compel Taiwan's unification, military subjugation remains a last option. But it would only worsen China's security environment.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
What Are the Chances of the U.S. and China Going to War?
David C. Gompert
Mar 14, 2017
Newsweek
War between the United States and China seems far-fetched. But complacency would be a mistake. Washington and Beijing should keep a direct channel open between their defense ministers to defuse any potential crises or escalation.
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Law Of the Sea
commentary
The Era of Coast Guards in the Asia-Pacific Is Upon Us
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Mar 8, 2017
Asia Maritme Transparency Initiative
Coast guards, not navies, are the new asset of choice in East and Southeast Asia to assert sovereignty over disputed waters. China has been expanding its coast guard fleet and many states, like Vietnam and the Philippines, lack the funds to match it.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 3, 2017
Jamestown Foundation's China Brief
China has probably tolerated Vietnam's South China Sea construction activities because it feels confident in its military position in the region. Chinese leaders might change their stance if they believe Vietnam is trying to enlist the support of the U.S. or other partners to settle bilateral disputes.
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China

How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea

Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context

Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia

Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?

The Driving Force Behind China's Ambitious 'Belt and Road Initiative'

Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?

U.S.-China Tensions Are Unlikely to Lead to War

Despite Promising Signs, China's North Korea Policy Unchanged

China's Role in Dissuading North Korea from a Chemical Weapons Attack

Rocky Road Ahead Likely for U.S.-China Relations

Five Dead-Ends — and One Risky Opportunity — When Trump and Xi Talk North Korea

Murder, Missiles, and Messages from North Korea

Why China Will Not Unify with Taiwan by 2020 — and Beijing Lacks Compelling Military Options

What Are the Chances of the U.S. and China Going to War?

The Era of Coast Guards in the Asia-Pacific Is Upon Us

China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now

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