Counterinsurgency

commentary

Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?

While insurgency rarely offers a path to early victory, a campaign of popular resistance that supports the continuing conventional battle could give overmatched Ukraine an edge in its fight against Russian occupiers.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

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The Art of Sitting on Bayonets

Russian President Vladimir Putin might have assumed that once conquered, Ukraine would be easy to hold. But there has been no lightning success, no defecting Ukrainian soldiers. If he can't find collaborators, Putin's chances of achieving even reduced ambitions in Ukraine may be dim indeed.

James T. Quinlivan

commentary

Repression in Mozambique Is Stoking an Islamist Insurgency, Risking Wider Unrest

While Southern Africa has largely remained immune from violent extremism, the situation in northern Mozambique threatens to destabilize the country and could potentially spread to other parts of the region. To effectively counter the growing threat, the government could devise a less heavy handed approach.

Hilary Matfess, Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes

commentary

Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?

Weapons proliferation has been a security concern for Libya and its neighbors since the revolution of 2011. If foreign arms transfers into Libya aren't reduced, the country's security situation will continue to deteriorate, giving militant groups a chance to increase their lethality and further destabilize the region.

Nathan Vest

commentary

Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency

Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.

David E. Thaler, Yousuf Abdelfatah

commentary

The Insurgent Counter-Insurgent: The French Army's Hero and Some Truths About Modern Warfare

When asked about their heroes, one name comes up with French Army officers more than any other: Hélie Denoix de Saint Marc. Saint Marc lived an extraordinary life, to be sure. But his story also contains important lessons about modern warfare and counter-insurgency warfare in particular, the work of training local forces, and the imperative of aligning military means with realistic political objectives.

Michael Shurkin

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Mali Is France's Afghanistan, but with a Difference

At first glance the comparison between the French military operations in Mali and America’s involvement in Afghanistan is compelling, and in some important ways, accurate. It also presents some fundamental differences that give reason for optimism in France.

Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin

commentary

How ISIS Is Transforming

The campaign to counter ISIS has made significant progress, but predictions of the group's demise are premature. It is transitioning from an insurgent organization with a fixed headquarters to a clandestine terrorist network dispersed throughout the globe.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

President Trump's Recommitment to Nation-Building in Afghanistan

In his speech on Afghanistan, President Trump maintained his stance against nation-building. But like President Obama's policy, the refreshed approach hinges on the U.S. developing Afghan government capabilities to fight the Taliban, provide for the country's long-term security, and serve as a counterterrorism partner.

Laurel E. Miller

commentary

How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further

Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.

Amanda Kadlec

commentary

Why Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons?

The use of chemical weapons today provokes international condemnation, if not always action. Those who order their deployment risk being charged with war crimes. So why would Syria's President Bashar Assad use them?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

What the Battles of Mosul and Aleppo Tell Us About Their Countries' Futures

The battle of Mosul is not just about defeating ISIS. It is about restoring Mosul to the multi-ethnic city it once was. The Syrian government's style of warfare in Aleppo, however, accepts that Syria will remain a divided country.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Can the Islamic State Lose Mosul and Still Win?

The loss of Mosul would be a serious blow for the Islamic State but past insurgencies suggest it is far too early to count the Islamic State out.

Seth G. Jones

commentary

It's Getting Harder to Define Military Readiness. Here's What to Do About It.

Focusing on one type of threat or the other — whether state or non-state in its general nature — is becoming a less tenable option as the United States considers how to assess and improve its military readiness.

Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Islamic State May Be Down, but It's Far from Out

The Islamic State's loss of territory, money, and recruits would seem to demonstrate significant progress by the U.S.-led coalition. But if there is one accepted truism in the battle against the group, it is that its leaders intend to fight to the death to establish an Islamic caliphate.

Colin P. Clarke, Chad C. Serena

commentary

How to Bog Down Putin in Syria

The lessons from the nearly 200 insurgencies that have taken place since World War II suggest that Russian aid probably will fail to turn the tide in Syria. The Assad regime still faces serious challenges, not the least of which is a lack of legitimacy among the Syrian people.

Seth G. Jones

commentary

Is a Syria Truce in Putin's Best Interest?

Moscow remains ambivalent but the West and its Arab partners could improve cease-fire prospects in Syria. They will have to drive the peace process to maintain pressure for political accommodation and also do more to help the rebels they back avert a military imbalance.

Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Bringing FARC in from the Cold

The announcement of a preliminary peace accord by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government is not receiving public support. Most Colombians manifest a strong desire for peace but they reject the possibility that crimes committed in the name of revolution should receive amnesty.

Arturo Munoz

commentary

The Fall of Kunduz and What It Means for the Future of Afghanistan

After the fall of Kunduz, Afghan officials and their coalition partners need to ask some hard questions about where their efforts have gone wrong and what can be done to recover.

Jason H. Campbell @JasonHCampbell

q&a

RAND Experts Q&A on the Fighting in Kunduz

The Taliban battled its way into the center of Kunduz this week, with media reports saying it seized control of the northern Afghanistan city at least for a time. A trio of RAND experts participated in a Q&A on the situation and its significance.

commentary

How to Lose a Civil War: Lessons for Afghanistan and Syria

Recently, both Syria and Afghanistan have seen battles that demonstrate anew the potential risks of seeking to defend exposed positions. Syrian leaders seem to have recognized that there are limits to the amount of territory its military can hold. Afghanistan's leaders would be well advised to come to the same conclusion.

James T. Quinlivan

commentary

The Foreign Policy Essay: Hearts, Minds, & ISIL

Defeating ISIL will not come from winning hearts and minds and soft power, nor will it come from a handful of precision airstrikes. It will require hard, bloody ground combat. The United States may not want to admit this, but it is the grim truth nonetheless.

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

A Broad Approach to Countering the Islamic State

Recent analysis about how to defeat the Islamic State tends to be based on no more than intuition, a general sense of history, or a small number of cases of questionable comparability. A study of 71 historical cases of counterinsurgencies should help provide empirical evidence to this important debate.

Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Your COIN Is No Good Here

One can legitimately argue for reducing the United States' commitment to the Afghan war, but it makes no sense to denigrate the tactics and techniques best designed to counter an insurgency, writes James Dobbins.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

commentary

Why U.S. Soldiers in Afghanistan Are So Frustrated

President Obama's declaration last week that a change in personnel will not mean a change in policy suggests that the administration took only some of the lessons contained in Michael Hastings' Rolling Stone article, writes Celeste Ward Gventer.

Celeste Gventer

commentary

Ends, Ways, and Means—the Debate We Still Need on Afghanistan

When President Obama explained his decision to send 30,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan to support General Stanley McChrystal's new counterinsurgency campaign, he left a key question unanswered: Will this be enough to achieve U.S. strategic ends in Afghanistan? writes David E. Johnson.

David E. Johnson

commentary

Take the War to Pakistan

The United States and Pakistan must target Taliban leaders in Baluchistan. There are several ways to do it, and none requires military forces, writes Seth G. Jones.

Seth G. Jones

commentary

A False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'

If the additional troops President Obama has ordered sent to Afghanistan are intended to pursue a "population-centric counterinsurgency" campaign, as described in news reports about General McChrystal's thinking, then this decision is regrettable, writes Celeste Ward Gventer.

Celeste Gventer

commentary

Path to a Pashtun Rebellion in Afghanistan

The discussion of American troop numbers misunderstands the subtle nuances of fighting a war in areas inhabited by fiercely independent Pashtun tribes, whose culture and traditions are under severe threat from the Taliban, writes Seth Jones.

Seth G. Jones

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Countering the Military's Latest Fad: Counterinsurgency

When Defense Secretary Gates announced that he was dismissing Gen. McKiernan as the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan and replacing him with Lt. Gen. McChrystal, he signaled his support for an intellectual movement that in a few short years has come to dominate military thinking in Washington, writes Celeste Ward.

Celeste Gventer

commentary

Going the Distance

Afghanistan has a reputation as a graveyard of empires, based as much on lore as on reality.... Yes, the situation is serious, but it's far from doomed. We can still turn things around if we strive for a better understanding of the Afghan insurgency and work to exploit its many weaknesses, writes Seth G. Jones.

Seth G. Jones

commentary

A New Tact on Iraq

American troops are likely to be needed in Iraq for years to come. Few insurgencies end in less than 10 years, and the conflict in Iraq is an especially complex mixture of guerrilla warfare, sectarian violence and virulent organized crime, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in Washingtonpost.com.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins