Decisionmaking

commentary

California's Ambitious Decarbonization Plan Hasn't Been Future-Proofed

California has an ambitious blueprint to make the state carbon-neutral by 2045. But there's been no integrated stress test of the whole plan. The state needs and deserves a future-proofed, stress-tested plan that all Californians can trust to achieve its climate goals.

Nidhi Kalra

commentary

Ukraine's Lessons for the Future of Hybrid Warfare

A new decision-analysis approach is necessary to capture the use of disinformation in the context of hybrid warfare. Multiple tools must be integrated to help generate a robust policy response to modern hybrid threats.

Weilong Kong, Timothy Marler

commentary

Revealing the Impact of Non-Lethal Weapons

Non-lethal weapons can be useful to U.S. military forces in a variety of contexts, but the Pentagon faces a challenge in ensuring their appropriate use and evaluating the potential effects of their deployment.

Scott Savitz, Krista Romita Grocholski

commentary

Algorithms Teach Us Why Equity Is Hard

If all the shortcomings of humanity were stripped away, equity would still be an elusive goal for algorithms for reasons that have more to do with mathematical impossibilities than backward ideologies. But even if attaining equity is fundamentally difficult, seeking it is not futile.

Irineo Cabreros

commentary

Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World

Scenarios are a useful tool for informing policy, guiding strategies, and accommodating future change. Using scenario planning to target potential problems or areas for development and building resilience can pinpoint robust policies that could be viable across a range of future states.

Mann Virdee @MannVirdee, Megan Hughes

commentary

At the Intersection of Leadership, Strategy, and Foresight

Police leaders spend considerable time developing strategic plans, but events and circumstances can evolve in unanticipated ways. To create survivable plans, leaders should assess capabilities and the environment within which they work. To do so, they should incorporate foresight to develop the adaptability necessary to thrive.

Bob Harrison

commentary

Analytical Gaming Could Help the U.S. Coast Guard Address Key Challenges

By gradually expanding its gaming efforts, the U.S. Coast Guard might improve both the quality of its decisions and the strength of its relationships, making the service ever more capable as it navigates the challenges of the 21st century.

Scott Savitz, Abbie Tingstad

essay

Costa Rica Leads the Way in Cutting Carbon Emissions

Almost every country has pledged to slash carbon emissions to slow the gears of global warming. Costa Rica's plan provides a glimpse of what a carbon-neutral future will look like. It shows how nations can take action and make investments that hold up, regardless of what future comes to pass.

commentary

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

RAND analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

Lawrence Baker, Pedro Nascimento de Lima @PedroNdeLima, et al.

commentary

Loose-Fit Infrastructure Can Better Account for Climate Change

As climate change accelerates there is a growing disconnect between what our infrastructure systems can do and what we need them to do. Policymakers should view infrastructure investments as not simply hardware fixes and upgrades, but as efforts to close this gap.

Mikhail Chester, Constantine Samaras

commentary

Use Wargaming to Sharpen the Tactical Edge

As a growing consensus embraces the utility of educational wargaming, a more daunting question remains: Can the Joint Force integrate and sustain educational wargaming in the operating forces? The challenges are substantial, but they are not insurmountable. The answer depends on bold leadership, sufficient tools, and eager partners.

Sebastian Joon Bae, Paul M. Kearney

commentary

California Needs a More Flexible Approach to Sea Level Rise Planning

Rising seas create significant risk to the health, safety, and economic vitality of California's coast communities, and we must prepare. A contingency-planning approach would provide flexible action over time and would build capacity that California and the nation need to respond to the many other serious and growing climate-related risks.

Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert, David Behar

commentary

Wargames as an Educational Tool

The benefits of games for military education are well documented. But harnessing the potential of games to foster innovation may require a commitment to sustain gaming over the years needed to explore a problem space and develop and stress-test new ideas.

Elizabeth M. Bartels @elliebartels

commentary

Who Gets Care When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed? Clear Policies Are Often Lacking

As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations surge to new highs, states, health systems, and the public continue to need clarity on health care resource allocation policy. A RAND checklist provides clear and consistent criteria for structuring such difficult decisions.

Lori Frank @LoriBethFrank, Thomas W. Concannon @tconcannon

commentary

Women and Statecraft History

RAND policy researcher and historian Stephanie Young remembers her key mentors and the impact they had, whether by asking important questions, encouraging academic pursuits, and modeling female excellence.

Stephanie Young