East Asia

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Five Factors to Watch as the Chinese Communist Party Faces Protests

It may be too soon to compare protests against China's zero-COVID policy to the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement. But looking back to 1989 still provides valuable insights into what might happen next.

Amanda Kerrigan

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Export Controls Give ASML and the Netherlands an Opportunity to Lead by Example. Will They Take It?

Dutch tech company ASML makes the complex machines required to construct advanced microchips, and it sells many of these machines to China. Harmonization of export controls between the United States and the Netherlands could limit China's development of military technologies and its human rights abuses.

Martijn Rasser, Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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Taiwan, Putin's Holy War, Mining the Moon: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why China likely won't attack Taiwan anytime soon, Vladimir Putin's “holy war” in Ukraine, why it's time to make rules for space-mining, and more.

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Is Seabed Mining an Opportunity to Break China's Stranglehold on Critical Minerals Supply Chains?

China dominates global supply chains for nearly all critical mineral resources, including the rare earths that power decarbonization technologies. Seabed mining may be a way to diversify critical minerals supply chains and break China's stranglehold on supplies of some of the world's most important natural resources.

Tom LaTourrette

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Xi Likely Won't Be Attacking Taiwan Anytime Soon

Rather than start a war, Xi Jinping is more likely to intensify China's use of coercive measures against Taiwan, including diplomatic, economic, and military pressure coupled with cyber and psychological operations. If coercion fails, Beijing might turn to force as a last resort, but this still seems unlikely given the many complicating factors.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Emerging Domestic Battery Supply Chain Should Be Wary of China's Information Ops

China has a huge stake in producing lithium-ion batteries, and is not above waging disinformation campaigns against U.S. firms involved in the battery supply chain. Extraction sector companies could work with cybersecurity experts and the U.S. intelligence community to educate their executives and local governments about any foreign disinformation risks.

Fabian Villalobos @doktor_wolfhaus

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Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss preparing for future pandemics; planning now for a negotiated outcome in Ukraine; insights from Ukraine that relate to Taiwan; the need for more data to help reduce law enforcement–related deaths; how China might react to U.S. posture changes; and using statistics to improve military force planning.

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Ukraine's Dream Could Be Taiwan's Nightmare

Defenders of territorial sovereignty and a peaceful world order may be cheered by Ukraine's success, but there is danger that success could decrease the urgency of efforts to strengthen Taiwan. China will seek to learn from the problems Russia has had in Ukraine. Will the U.S. and other supporters of Taiwan do the same?

Michael Spirtas

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Putin's Gambits, Xi Jinping, Machine Learning: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Putin's latest “desperate measures” in Ukraine, support for Xi Jinping, whether machine-learning tools can tell if you're lying, and more.

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Xi Jinping Is Weaker Than You Think

Although Xi wields significant influence over Chinese domestic politics—certainly more than his most recent predecessors—he still needs support from the Party elite. And on that front, some cracks are showing.

Howard Wang

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Legalizing Cannabis, the Russian Nuclear Threat, Digital Offshoring: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on cannabis legalization, the Russian nuclear threat, the effects of digital offshoring, and more.

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Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?

The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Microchips, Ukraine, Outer Space: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how safeguarding Taiwan is the answer to America's microchip problem, a moment of clarity in Ukraine, new rules in space, and more.

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The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution

Taiwan manufactures about 92 percent of the world's advanced microchips, which are used in almost all electronics, from cars to coffeemakers to combine harvesters. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world's supply of microchips. Here's how to offset that threat.

Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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Civic Education, Twitter's Bot Problem, Police Reform: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses civic and citizenship education in America, addressing Twitter’s bot problem, why community engagement is key to police reform, and more.