East Asia

North Korea
commentary
Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jun 5, 2019
East Asia Forum
North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity
Nathan Ryan
Jun 3, 2019
The Cipher Brief
The world's attention will be fixed on Japan as it hosts the Rugby World Cup in September and the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Japan's cyber defenses will need to be strong enough to keep attackers out and resilient enough to restore systems should things go wrong.
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Drug Markets and Supply
commentary
China's Ban on Fentanyl Drugs Won't Likely Stem America's Opioid Crisis
Bryce Pardo @brycepardo, Beau Kilmer @BeauKilmer
May 22, 2019
Los Angeles Times
Given China's recent decision to ban the unauthorized manufacture of fentanyl, authorities there appear to recognize a growing problem. But China cannot solve the U.S. opioid problem. The United States could do more to reduce demand for opioids as well as drug users' exposure to these powerful drugs.
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China
commentary
Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 15, 2019
The Diplomat
China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.
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China
commentary
Getting to Know the Competition
Cortez A. Cooper III
May 13, 2019
RealClearDefense
Americans are facing a new reality in global great power relations that will define the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy for the foreseeable future. Understanding China's threat perceptions, while remaining clear-eyed regarding differences in objectives, is essential to developing strategies to deter conflict.
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Japan
commentary
With Little Fanfare, Japan Just Changed the Way It Uses Its Military
Jeffrey W. Hornung
May 3, 2019
Foreign Policy
In early April, Japan deployed its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) abroad to join a multinational force not connected to the United Nations. This is the first time that SDF personnel will participate in overseas peacekeeping operations not under UN control. The difference may not seem important, but it is.
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China
commentary
Book Review: 'Unrivaled' by Michael Beckley
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Apr 18, 2019
The National Interest
In Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower Michael Beckley argues not only that U.S. preeminence is safer than most contemporary commentary would have one believe, but also that it is more resilient.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
A Warming Trend in China-Russia Relations
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz, Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Apr 18, 2019
The Diplomat
The China-Russia relationship is indeed growing across military, economic, and political dimensions. But it is still more anchored in shared grievances than in common visions. Both countries contest U.S. interests, but in different ways. Washington should treat them as separate strategic challenges.
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Satellite Communication
commentary
Space Safety Coordination: A Norm for All Nations
Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock
Apr 16, 2019
Small Wars Journal
As space becomes more congested with satellites, the need for every nation to actively participate in the space safety coordination system grows. Most spacefaring countries participate, but a few countries do not—notably, Russia and China. That creates greater potential for collisions and hazards from debris.
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Taiwan
commentary
A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 21, 2019
The National Interest
It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.
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China
commentary
Time to Speak Up About the South China Sea
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Mar 20, 2019
East Asia Forum
Some leaders in Southeast Asia may fear that new or enhanced postures in the South China Sea could antagonize China. But directly calling out China's breaks from the status quo or intimidation tactics may not necessarily put these countries at risk of Chinese countermeasures.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Where Do U.S.-North Korea Relations Go in the Aftermath of the Hanoi Summit?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Mar 13, 2019
The National Interest
If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.
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North Korea
commentary
After the Hanoi Summit
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Mar 13, 2019
The National Interest
The best-case scenario for U.S.-North Korea relations is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un remain committed to diplomacy. In the worst-case scenario, both countries' frustrations could spiral out of control.
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North Korea
commentary
The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge
Michael J. Mazarr, Gian Gentile
Mar 12, 2019
The National Interest
In an era of global competition in which U.S. military resources are stretched thin, the United States should consider looking for opportunities to scale back potential overcommitment. The current inter-Korean dialogue presents such an opportunity.
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China
commentary
Managing U.S. Military-to-Military Relations with China, a Strategic Competitor in an Era of Renewed Great Power Competition
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Mar 8, 2019
ChinaFile
The United States National Security Strategy describes a return of great power rivalry with China as the leading challenger, and the National Defense Strategy prioritizes strategic competition. What are the implications for U.S.-China military-to-military relations?
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Public Evidence of Huawei as a Cyber Threat May Be Elusive, but Restrictions Could Still Be Warranted
Timothy R. Heath
Mar 7, 2019
The Hill
Although a “smoking gun” of Huawei involvement in government-directed espionage remains elusive, the United States has compelling security and economic reasons to consider limiting the involvement of Chinese telecommunications companies in its domestic networks.
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East Asia

Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks

Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity

China's Ban on Fentanyl Drugs Won't Likely Stem America's Opioid Crisis

Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight

Getting to Know the Competition

With Little Fanfare, Japan Just Changed the Way It Uses Its Military

Book Review: 'Unrivaled' by Michael Beckley

A Warming Trend in China-Russia Relations

Space Safety Coordination: A Norm for All Nations

A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable

Time to Speak Up About the South China Sea

Where Do U.S.-North Korea Relations Go in the Aftermath of the Hanoi Summit?

After the Hanoi Summit

The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge

Managing U.S. Military-to-Military Relations with China, a Strategic Competitor in an Era of Renewed Great Power Competition

Public Evidence of Huawei as a Cyber Threat May Be Elusive, but Restrictions Could Still Be Warranted

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