East Asia

Oceania
commentary
PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 14, 2020
The Diplomat
The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.
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China
commentary
China's Friends Are Few and Unreliable
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 12, 2020
Nikkei Asia
Amid escalating competition, China and the United States are actively shoring up their diplomatic relationships in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Compared to the United States, China's friends are certainly not as numerous, nor are they as reliable. That is a major challenge for Beijing.
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Military Strategy
commentary
The United States Can Achieve AI Dominance with Its Allies
James Ryseff
Oct 9, 2020
War on the Rocks
Close collaborators in any AI alliance must be able to usefully contribute to the work and be trustworthy enough to share in cutting-edge technical advancements. While achieving this close collaboration with allies may be difficult, it will be essential if the United States hopes to achieve the data dominance needed to succeed in future combat.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Sep 28, 2020
The National Interest
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Brandon Alexander Millan
Sep 25, 2020
The Diplomat
The 1992 Consensus is an agreement between the Kuomintang opposition party in Taiwan and mainland Chinese authorities on the existence of only “One China.” Maintaining the 1992 Consensus as the cornerstone of the Kuomintang's platform has not helped the party's cause, and more importantly, has probably done the opposite.
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Taiwan
commentary
Ambiguity Has Its Uses
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr
Sep 24, 2020
Foreign Affairs
As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Could Time Be Up for TikTok?
Daniel Gonzales @gonzadan, Sarah Harting, Julia Brackup
Sep 24, 2020
The RAND Blog
Is it possible for ByteDance to maintain ownership in TikTok Global while ameliorating U.S. national security concerns? At the heart of any deal should be a highly technical agreement on data security issues—one that not only the two companies but the two governments might have to agree to.
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Middle East
commentary
In the Middle East, Russia and China Expand Their Influence
Ali Wyne, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 18, 2020
Lawfare
While the United States is concerned primarily about a resurgent China's inroads in the Middle East, it is also nervous about the gambits of a revanchist Russia. As the United States decides when and how to contest China and Russia—in and beyond the Middle East—it will have to resist alarmism as vigorously as complacency.
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Wildfires
blog
Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 18, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the growing risk of wildfires, how Americans' incomes have grown (or not), workplace screenings for COVID-19 symptoms, and more.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
America's Indo-Pacific Vision Is Becoming a Reality—Because of China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 14, 2020
Nikkei Asian Review
The Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy has received a significant boost in recent months toward achieving its goal of keeping the region “free and open” from Chinese coercion. Ironically, China itself has been doing the boosting.
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Japan
commentary
What Abe Leaves Behind
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Sep 11, 2020
Defense One
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's unexpected resignation leaves several of his policy priorities unfinished, including revising Japan's constitution and finalizing a peace treaty with Russia. But the security issues facing Japan and the region remain unchanged, and Abe's successor may be forced to confront several of them on his very first day.
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Globalization
blog
America's Declining Global Influence, COVID-19 and Schools, Pardoning Snowden: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 11, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on America's declining status on the world stage, why schools need long-term plans to address COVID-19, what Shinzo Abe's resignation means for the U.S.-Japan alliance, and more.
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Japan
commentary
Abe's Resignation Could Leave Japan Less Secure—and Destabilize Its U.S. Alliance
Zack Cooper, Jeffrey W. Hornung
Sep 8, 2020
Los Angeles Times
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's leadership, Japan tightened its alliance with the United States and took on a more proactive role in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world. His resignation could very well leave Japan less secure and the U.S.-Japan alliance unstable.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
America Is Betting Big on the Second Island Chain
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 8, 2020
The Diplomat
The United States has deep and abiding interests in the Second Island Chain. But China's growing influence in the region could complicate U.S. plans. Washington will almost certainly seek to strengthen security cooperation with Pacific Island states in the Second Island Chain and bolster defensive positions on U.S. territories in the region.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
The Evidence on Kids and COVID-19, China's Use of Big Data, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 4, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on what we know (and what we don't) about kids and COVID-19, how China is using big data, the future of telemedicine, and more.
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Taiwan
commentary
Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 21, 2020
South China Morning Post
HHS Secretary Alex Azar's August 9th visit to Taiwan should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening. But Taiwan should view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. U.S. objectives with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.
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PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific

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East Asia

PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific

China's Friends Are Few and Unreliable

The United States Can Achieve AI Dominance with Its Allies

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem

Ambiguity Has Its Uses

Could Time Be Up for TikTok?

In the Middle East, Russia and China Expand Their Influence

Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap

America's Indo-Pacific Vision Is Becoming a Reality—Because of China

What Abe Leaves Behind

America's Declining Global Influence, COVID-19 and Schools, Pardoning Snowden: RAND Weekly Recap

Abe's Resignation Could Leave Japan Less Secure—and Destabilize Its U.S. Alliance

America Is Betting Big on the Second Island Chain

The Evidence on Kids and COVID-19, China's Use of Big Data, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap

Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons

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