East Asia

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Beyond the 'Mine Shaft Gap': Navigating Threat Perceptions in the Sino-American Rivalry

In “Dr. Strangelove,” the “mine shaft gap” was an astute satirical concept that reflected the mindset that any perceived disadvantage between the United States and the Soviet Union posed an existential threat. Though fictional, this kind of calculation is not unheard of in real-life, modern-day thinking. Shrewd discernment could help avoid it as the United States pursues its national security objectives.

Christopher A. Mouton

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What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Upcoming Presidential Election Will Clarify Taiwan's China Policy

Until the Taiwanese presidential election next January, China, the United States, and many other countries will be watching Taiwan with bated breath. Across the Indo-Pacific region and the world, the hope would simply be that no matter who is elected, peace and stability continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough

The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Waiting to Impale: Defending Taiwan with Artificial Reefs

Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is arguably the most important defense problem of the next few decades. Artificial reefs could help to deter China simply by waiting to impale any potential invasion force.

Scott Savitz

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Violence in Sudan, Alcohol Use, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the violence in Sudan, preventing alcohol-related deaths, the North Korean nuclear threat, and more.

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A Civilian U.S. 'Joint Chiefs' for Economic Competition with China?

China's aggressive activities are presenting a serious, sustained challenge to the international order. To position itself for this new era, the United States could create a civilian equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff with a mandate to manage the expanding role of U.S. civilian departments in geopolitical and economic competition.

Barry Pavel @BarryPavel, Daniel Egel

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Environmental Justice, Mental Health Care, Insomnia: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on environmental justice, access to mental health care, why America should stick with Europe. and more.

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How Kim Jong-un's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Agenda

North Korea has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its provocations, continuing its nuclear weapon–buildup while threatening attacks against South Korea and the United States. Why is Kim Jong-un making such excessive investments in North Korea's nuclear and weapons programs and showing off its capabilities?

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Stick with Europe

The United States' chief competitive advantage in the contest with China is its dominant global network of friends and allies. Now is the time to strengthen those coveted ties—in Europe and elsewhere.

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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Why China Should Worry About Asia's Reaction to AUKUS

If most Indo-Pacific nations support AUKUS—or refuse to condemn it—then Beijing will have more geostrategic and military implications to worry about than AUKUS itself. As long as AUKUS continues to assuage nuclear-proliferation concerns, then the region will view it as a legitimate counter to Chinese military excesses.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'

When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative.

Scott Savitz

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Dementia and National Security, Finland Joins NATO, the Four-Day School Week: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the risk that dementia could pose to national security, Finland's NATO membership, the downside of a four-day school week, and more.

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Can China's Green Energy Acceleration Put at Risk the West's Hydrogen Plans?

Hydrogen (H2) plays a key role in the decarbonization plans of the European Union and the United States. Both have launched aggressive hydrogen strategies to increase the generation of H2 and deployment of related technologies. But these bold ambitions may face headwinds due to the acceleration of China's energy transition.

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Andrew Star, et al.

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Japan's New Security Policies: A Long Road to Full Implementation

The historic ambition contained within Japan's new defense strategies is notable. But the reality is that an extraordinary alignment of political, economic, fiscal, and other stars will be necessary for Japan's government to fully implement their stated ambitions over the next five to ten years.

Adam P. Liff, Jeffrey W. Hornung