East Asia

Japan
commentary
Japan's Hormuz Dilemma
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Aug 16, 2019
The Hill
With rising tensions between the United States and Iran, the United States wants to create a coalition to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, and wants Japan to join. While Japan is one of America's staunchest allies in the Indo-Pacific, any decision to support coalition efforts is likely to put Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a difficult position.
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North Korea
commentary
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christian Curriden, Dung Huynh
Aug 12, 2019
38 North
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
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Taiwan
commentary
Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Aug 9, 2019
Institut Montaigne
Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.
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Military Facilities
commentary
The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia
Timothy R. Heath
Aug 7, 2019
World Politics Review
China and Cambodia have reportedly signed a secret agreement allowing the Chinese navy to use a military facility near Ream, along Cambodia's southern coast, though both countries deny the reports. The installation of a Chinese military facility in Cambodia, if realized, would further complicate an already sensitive and tense situation in the region.
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China
commentary
Yes, Sam Huntington Has Insights to Guide U.S. Competition with China
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Jul 25, 2019
Financial Times
Many U.S. observers believe that the United States is declining relative to China. The United States' long-term competitiveness will be served neither by assuming that China is fated to collapse on account of its internal contradictions nor by presuming that it is destined to preside over a world order with Chinese characteristics. Sustainable strategy requires a measured disposition.
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North Korea
commentary
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jul 15, 2019
The National Interest
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
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Hong Kong
commentary
Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 3, 2019
The Hill
Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.
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North Korea
commentary
How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jul 2, 2019
The Hill
The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.
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Politics and Government
commentary
One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 21, 2019
Foreign Policy
The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's “one country, two systems” policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.
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North Korea
commentary
One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes
Soo W. Kim
Jun 17, 2019
The Hill
After two summits between the United States and North Korea, and little to show in the way of deliverables on dismantlement, hopes that a third summit may yield a denuclearization deal seem a bit unrealistic. Essentially, there has been no indication of intent on Kim's part to denuclearize. But the North Korea problem is much greater than nukes.
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North Korea
commentary
Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jun 5, 2019
East Asia Forum
North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity
Nathan Ryan
Jun 3, 2019
The Cipher Brief
The world's attention will be fixed on Japan as it hosts the Rugby World Cup in September and the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Japan's cyber defenses will need to be strong enough to keep attackers out and resilient enough to restore systems should things go wrong.
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Drug Markets and Supply
commentary
China's Ban on Fentanyl Drugs Won't Likely Stem America's Opioid Crisis
Bryce Pardo @brycepardo, Beau Kilmer @BeauKilmer
May 22, 2019
Los Angeles Times
Given China's recent decision to ban the unauthorized manufacture of fentanyl, authorities there appear to recognize a growing problem. But China cannot solve the U.S. opioid problem. The United States could do more to reduce demand for opioids as well as drug users' exposure to these powerful drugs.
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China
commentary
Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 15, 2019
The Diplomat
China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.
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China
commentary
Getting to Know the Competition
Cortez A. Cooper III
May 13, 2019
RealClearDefense
Americans are facing a new reality in global great power relations that will define the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy for the foreseeable future. Understanding China's threat perceptions, while remaining clear-eyed regarding differences in objectives, is essential to developing strategies to deter conflict.
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Japan
commentary
With Little Fanfare, Japan Just Changed the Way It Uses Its Military
Jeffrey W. Hornung
May 3, 2019
Foreign Policy
In early April, Japan deployed its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) abroad to join a multinational force not connected to the United Nations. This is the first time that SDF personnel will participate in overseas peacekeeping operations not under UN control. The difference may not seem important, but it is.
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Syria Changed the Iranian Way of War

Japan's Hormuz Dilemma

Illicit Supply of Fentanyl and Other Synthetic Opioids

The Policy Currents Podcast

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Developing Strategies for Summer Learning

Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs

Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change

East Asia

Japan's Hormuz Dilemma

Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea

Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia

Yes, Sam Huntington Has Insights to Guide U.S. Competition with China

Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting

Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail

How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations

One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems

One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes

Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Political and Strategic Risks

Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity

China's Ban on Fentanyl Drugs Won't Likely Stem America's Opioid Crisis

Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight

Getting to Know the Competition

With Little Fanfare, Japan Just Changed the Way It Uses Its Military

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