Egypt

commentary

Economic Recovery in Egypt Should Include Women

Despite tremendous strides in educational attainment, women's engagement in the labor force in Egypt remains limited. Will Egypt's post-pandemic recovery further exacerbate structural barriers and inequities? Or could the current economic crisis be an opportunity to develop new opportunities to employ women and foster conditions for a more inclusive and diversified labor force?

Louay Constant

blog

A Proposed COVID-19 Cure, Economic Decline, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the unintended consequences of a proposed COVID-19 treatment, another wave of economic destruction, North Korea after Kim Jong Un, and more.

commentary

Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency

Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.

David E. Thaler, Yousuf Abdelfatah

commentary

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.

Colin P. Clarke

blog

How the Drinking Bird Foiled a Spruce Goose Engineer

The famous drinking bird toy gave RAND's Dick Murrow an idea that might help Egyptian farmers. But Murrow, who previously led Howard Hughes's Spruce Goose design team, couldn't secure funding to get the concept off the ground.

commentary

Egypt's Suez Canal: An Attenuated Lifeline

The U.S. Navy has enjoyed the luxury of being able to transit the Suez Canal without hindrance for decades. However, the risk of losing access — perhaps quickly and unexpectedly — should inform Navy strategic and operational planning.

Scott Savitz, Paul DeLuca

commentary

It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure

Pessimistically declaring the Arab Spring a failure in 2016 would be as naive as optimistically declaring it a success in 2011. Something comes next—but what?

Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson

announcement

RAND's Shelly Culbertson Publishes Book on Middle East After the Arab Spring

A new book by RAND's Shelly Culbertson mixes travel memoir, reporting, and analysis across six Middle Eastern countries, presenting diverse experiences of the Arab Spring.

commentary

Passing Judgment on Russian Plane Crash Before the Facts Are In

A bright flash and catastrophic event suggest an explosion, but do not necessarily exclude the possibility of a mechanical failure. This would not, in fact, be the first time evidence pointed to a terrorist attack when none existed.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Partisans Without Parties

It is tempting to describe Egypt's parliamentary elections as history repeating itself. Yet today's Egypt is not Mubarak's Egypt. Rather, it is a state transitioning from single-party rule to a new system whose pecking order is still being hashed out.

Emad Shahin, Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Seduced by a Strongman?

It is not true that domestic politics can be quarantined from foreign policy. In fact, Egypt's domestic and foreign policies are becoming more entangled by the day. And that bleed-over should raise concerns.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Somalia on the Mediterranean

Libya is as vulnerable to further inroads by ISIS now as Syria was a year ago. What can the United States and its allies do to stop the hemorrhaging? Many options have been debated, but none look very promising.

Christopher S. Chivvis

commentary

The U.S. Can't Count on Regional Support in the Fight Against ISIS

Regional governments may put some of their differences aside to help fight ISIS. But in a region rife with turmoil and multiple internal fissures, Washington cannot count on its confrontation with ISIS as its partners' overriding priority.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

blog

With the Death Toll Rising in Gaza, Is There Any Hope for Peace?

Casualties are rising in the conflict between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. Are there any realistic expectations for peace in the region? Who could broker a settlement between Hamas and Israel?

commentary

The Egyptian Regime's Achilles' Heel

As the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood reclaiming power recedes, it will become difficult for the new authorities in Egypt to hold together a coalition that is built solely on its members' shared antipathy for the Islamist group.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

What's Next for the Muslim Brotherhood?

Some believe the Muslim Brotherhood should stay in the political game, adopting the role of loyal opposition. The Brotherhood would remain a minority party, but it could continue to hold offices, provide social assistance that the government does not, and demonstrate its continuing strength at the polls.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

blog

Dalia Dassa Kaye: Don't Cut Economic Aid to Egypt

It's pretty clear that the U.S. administration is frustrated with the way Egypt is going, says Dalia Dassa Kaye. There are few good choices. What is unfortunate is the development of cutting economic assistance to Egypt. That is sending exactly the wrong message to the Egyptian people and the broader region.

blog

Things Could Get Worse in Egypt

As terrible as yesterday was in Egypt, things could get worse, says Jeffrey Martini, a RAND Middle East analyst. While the military-ruled government appears to be trying to break the neck of the Muslim Brotherhood, one shoe that hasn't dropped is the arrest of senior Muslim Brotherhood leaders.

commentary

Egyptian Liberals, Please Stand Up

While Egypt really is in trouble, what is needed is not a U.S. signal in the form of an aid cut off or another European mediation effort, it is for Egyptian liberals to stand up and condition their participation in government on genuine national reconciliation.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

The Enduring Mirage of the Arab Spring

U.S. policy should not be hamstrung by a narrow focus on democratization, writes Seth G. Jones. More than ever, the United States and its allies should think first about protecting their vital strategic interests in Egypt and the region.

Seth G. Jones

commentary

The Biggest Loser of Cairo's Coup: Turkey

The military coup deposing Egypt's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, has sparked an important shift in the regional balance of power in the Middle East. Morsi's ouster deals a strong blow to the Turkey-Qatar-Egypt “pro-change” axis and to Turkey's hopes of playing a larger role in the region.

F. Stephen Larrabee

blog

In Egypt, Polarization Stands in the Way of Stability

The establishment of a stable government in Egypt is an elusive goal that depends on finding ways to reduce seemingly intractable levels of political polarization, says Jeffrey Martini. There is little cause for optimism that polarization will diminish any time soon.

commentary

Halting Aid to Egypt Over Military 'Coup' Would Hurt US Interests

Critics advocate for acknowledging that what occurred in Egypt is a coup and shutting off the more than $1.5 billion that Egypt receives annually from the US government. But this position fails to appreciate the limits of the leverage Washington derives from its aid to Cairo and the potential consequences of halting it.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

The Egyptian Military's Playbook

The Egyptian military, still bruised from its last stint in power, is likely to proceed with caution this time around. If it does intervene, it will likely seek some acquiescence from the Islamists and will want to quickly form an inclusive caretaker government.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Egypt's Self-Fulfilling Prophesy

Rebel, or Tamarud, is a petition drive aimed at ousting President Morsi by collecting more signatures calling for his resignation than the number of votes he received in the 2012 elections. On June 30, the organizers will take to the streets in a rally that is likely to touch off clashes with security forces and Morsi's supporters.

Jeffrey Martini

blog

Luxor Governor's Resignation Highlights Growing Divide in Egypt

The governor of the Egyptian city of Luxor, Mohamed El-Khayat, resigned amid protests last week, just days after being appointed to the post by President Mohamed Morsi. His selection was controversial due to his affiliation with an Islamist terror group that in 1997 killed 62 people in Luxor, many of them tourists.

blog

In Brief: Jeffrey Martini on Mapping Egyptian Politics

In this video, RAND Middle East analyst Jeffrey Martini discusses what past electoral performance and the current political context say about the Islamists' strength in Egypt and what it means for the United States.

Jeffrey Martini

blog

New RAND Study Examines Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt

While much has been written on the electoral strength of Islamists in Egypt, most of the analysis has been done at the national level, ignoring regional divides within the country. A new report identifies the areas where Islamist parties run strongest, and the areas where non-Islamists are most competitive.

commentary

Egypt's Constitutional Referendum Was an Opportunity Lost

The Egyptian process left no room for broad deliberation of the constitutional issues, or even for educating citizens about the text of the document on which they were asked to vote, writes Laurel Miller.

Laurel E. Miller

commentary

Political Impasse in Egypt

If there ever was a honeymoon in Egypt's post-Mubarak politics, it is long over. The two main ideological camps—Islamists and secular-liberals—have shown a willingness to cooperate only when brought together by a common foe, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Don't Give Up on Egypt's Political Transition Just Yet

Many transitions around the world in recent decades have been just as chaotic, yet 180-degree returns to autocracy have been exceedingly rare, writes Laurel Miller.

Laurel E. Miller

commentary

Muslim Brotherhood Failing to Learn from Mistakes

The Muslim Brotherhood is falling into the same trap of overreach exhibited by the Egyptian military when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) held the reins of authority during the first 16 months of the transition, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Headscarves on Egyptian Newscasts Are a Victory for Tolerance

Lifting the Egyptian ban on headscarves on TV newscasts can be seen as a positive development. It ends state discrimination against those who wish to show their faith outwardly.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

How Does Arab Spring Compare to Third Wave Transitions?

The changes underway in the Arab world may lead to various possible destinations that differ both from their points of departure and from liberal democracy, write Laurel Miller and Jeffrey Martini.

Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Changing of the Guard in Egypt

Morsi's moves were certainly dramatic, and he may not be done. He has “decreed” that he has the right to select the next Constituent Assembly—deciding the constitution—if this one fails or is disbanded, writes Julie Taylor.

Julie E. Taylor

commentary

Egypt's New President Has the Mandate—What about the Power?

Mohamed Morsi's victory is a huge step in Egypt's political development, but his authorities were recently curtailed by the military and it is unclear how much power he will actually wield, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

The Egyptian Military Wins Again

The Muslim Brotherhood now faces a choice. It can seat Mursi and continue to legitimate a post-Mubarak transition that seems designed to advance the narrow interests of Egypt's officer corps. Or it can return to the streets with the aim of unseating the military council, writes Jeff Martini.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Cairo's Candidate Shuffle

Just as before the disqualifications, the fundamental decision voters face is about the scope and nature of the change Egypt will undergo in the coming years. And there are still candidates representing almost every position on that spectrum, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

The Year of the Arab Spring

The Arab Spring demonstrated that leaderless revolutions are difficult to repress or co-opt. Unfortunately, it is also true that leaderless revolts find it difficult to make transition to authority, writes Charles Ries.

Charles P. Ries @charles_ries

commentary

Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future

The SCAF's attempts to curtail dissent and the democratic process have fueled doubts about its true intentions. Will the military fulfill its promise to support democracy? Or will it seek to replace Mubarak's rule with its own or that of a friendly autocrat? write Jeffrey Martini and Julie Taylor.

Jeffrey Martini, Julie E. Taylor

commentary

In Obama Speech, Will There Be Aid for Arab Spring Nations?

Assisting Arab democratic transitions will not eliminate religious extremism. But successful transitions would directly challenge the jihadist brands that promote attacks on America, writes Julie Taylor.

Julie E. Taylor

commentary

Is the Arab World Changing for the Better?

If some measure of democracy does result, the elected governments likely will reflect the popular antipathy that the "Arab street" has for both the United States and Israel, writes David Aaron.

David Aaron

commentary

Five Myths about the Muslim Brotherhood

Much of what we know—or think we know—about the Muslim Brotherhood's ambitions, beliefs and history is clouded by misperceptions, writes Lorenzo Vidino.

Lorenzo Vidino

commentary

Egypt Faces Rough, Uncharted Road

The most favorable outcome achievable in Egypt might be what we see in Iraq, but without the violence, writes Harold Brown.

Harold Brown

commentary

Keep U.S. Aid Flowing to Egypt's Military

Continuing support for the Egyptian military will be crucial for U.S. influence and for an evolution in Egypt that can meet American interests, writes Robert E. Hunter.

Robert E. Hunter

commentary

The Domino Effect of Arab Unrest

There is no clear political party or leader ready to step in if the regime in Egypt falls. However, this protest is not without leadership; it is spearheaded by a large network of Egyptian human rights groups and other citizens, writes Julie Taylor.

Julie E. Taylor