Egypt

Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Engineers and Engineering
blog
How the Drinking Bird Foiled a Spruce Goose Engineer
Jun 29, 2017
The famous drinking bird toy gave RAND's Dick Murrow an idea that might help Egyptian farmers. But Murrow, who previously led Howard Hughes's Spruce Goose design team, couldn't secure funding to get the concept off the ground.
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United States Navy
commentary
Egypt's Suez Canal: An Attenuated Lifeline
Scott Savitz, Paul DeLuca
Sep 14, 2016
The National Interest
The U.S. Navy has enjoyed the luxury of being able to transit the Suez Canal without hindrance for decades. However, the risk of losing access — perhaps quickly and unexpectedly — should inform Navy strategic and operational planning.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Jun 15, 2016
Newsweek
Pessimistically declaring the Arab Spring a failure in 2016 would be as naive as optimistically declaring it a success in 2011. Something comes next—but what?
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Middle East
announcement
RAND's Shelly Culbertson Publishes Book on Middle East After the Arab Spring
Apr 19, 2016
A new book by RAND's Shelly Culbertson mixes travel memoir, reporting, and analysis across six Middle Eastern countries, presenting diverse experiences of the Arab Spring.
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Aircraft
commentary
Passing Judgment on Russian Plane Crash Before the Facts Are In
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Nov 12, 2015
The Hill
A bright flash and catastrophic event suggest an explosion, but do not necessarily exclude the possibility of a mechanical failure. This would not, in fact, be the first time evidence pointed to a terrorist attack when none existed.
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Egypt
commentary
Partisans Without Parties
Emad Shahin, Jeffrey Martini
Oct 29, 2015
Foreign Affairs
It is tempting to describe Egypt's parliamentary elections as history repeating itself. Yet today's Egypt is not Mubarak's Egypt. Rather, it is a state transitioning from single-party rule to a new system whose pecking order is still being hashed out.
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Egypt
commentary
Seduced by a Strongman?
Jeffrey Martini
Apr 30, 2015
Foreign Affairs
It is not true that domestic politics can be quarantined from foreign policy. In fact, Egypt's domestic and foreign policies are becoming more entangled by the day. And that bleed-over should raise concerns.
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Libya
commentary
Somalia on the Mediterranean
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 19, 2015
Foreign Policy
Libya is as vulnerable to further inroads by ISIS now as Syria was a year ago. What can the United States and its allies do to stop the hemorrhaging? Many options have been debated, but none look very promising.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The U.S. Can't Count on Regional Support in the Fight Against ISIS
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Sep 16, 2014
The New York Times
Regional governments may put some of their differences aside to help fight ISIS. But in a region rife with turmoil and multiple internal fissures, Washington cannot count on its confrontation with ISIS as its partners' overriding priority.
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Gaza Strip
blog
With the Death Toll Rising in Gaza, Is There Any Hope for Peace?
Jul 22, 2014
Casualties are rising in the conflict between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. Are there any realistic expectations for peace in the region? Who could broker a settlement between Hamas and Israel?
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Egypt
commentary
The Egyptian Regime's Achilles' Heel
Jeffrey Martini
Feb 21, 2014
Foreign Affairs
As the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood reclaiming power recedes, it will become difficult for the new authorities in Egypt to hold together a coalition that is built solely on its members' shared antipathy for the Islamist group.
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Egypt
commentary
What's Next for the Muslim Brotherhood?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Aug 26, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Some believe the Muslim Brotherhood should stay in the political game, adopting the role of loyal opposition. The Brotherhood would remain a minority party, but it could continue to hold offices, provide social assistance that the government does not, and demonstrate its continuing strength at the polls.
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Egypt
blog
Dalia Dassa Kaye: Don't Cut Economic Aid to Egypt
Aug 22, 2013
It's pretty clear that the U.S. administration is frustrated with the way Egypt is going, says Dalia Dassa Kaye. There are few good choices. What is unfortunate is the development of cutting economic assistance to Egypt. That is sending exactly the wrong message to the Egyptian people and the broader region.
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Egypt
blog
Things Could Get Worse in Egypt
Aug 15, 2013
As terrible as yesterday was in Egypt, things could get worse, says Jeffrey Martini, a RAND Middle East analyst. While the military-ruled government appears to be trying to break the neck of the Muslim Brotherhood, one shoe that hasn't dropped is the arrest of senior Muslim Brotherhood leaders.
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Egypt
commentary
Egyptian Liberals, Please Stand Up
Jeffrey Martini
Aug 1, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
While Egypt really is in trouble, what is needed is not a U.S. signal in the form of an aid cut off or another European mediation effort, it is for Egyptian liberals to stand up and condition their participation in government on genuine national reconciliation.
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Egypt
commentary
The Enduring Mirage of the Arab Spring
Seth G. Jones
Jul 22, 2013
Foreign Affairs
U.S. policy should not be hamstrung by a narrow focus on democratization, writes Seth G. Jones. More than ever, the United States and its allies should think first about protecting their vital strategic interests in Egypt and the region.
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Turkey
commentary
The Biggest Loser of Cairo's Coup: Turkey
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jul 19, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
The military coup deposing Egypt's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, has sparked an important shift in the regional balance of power in the Middle East. Morsi's ouster deals a strong blow to the Turkey-Qatar-Egypt “pro-change” axis and to Turkey's hopes of playing a larger role in the region.
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Egypt
blog
In Egypt, Polarization Stands in the Way of Stability
Jul 18, 2013
The establishment of a stable government in Egypt is an elusive goal that depends on finding ways to reduce seemingly intractable levels of political polarization, says Jeffrey Martini. There is little cause for optimism that polarization will diminish any time soon.
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Egypt
commentary
Halting Aid to Egypt Over Military 'Coup' Would Hurt US Interests
Jeffrey Martini
Jul 11, 2013
Christian Science Monitor
Critics advocate for acknowledging that what occurred in Egypt is a coup and shutting off the more than $1.5 billion that Egypt receives annually from the US government. But this position fails to appreciate the limits of the leverage Washington derives from its aid to Cairo and the potential consequences of halting it.
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Egypt
commentary
The Egyptian Military's Playbook
Jeffrey Martini
Jul 2, 2013
Foreign Affairs
The Egyptian military, still bruised from its last stint in power, is likely to proceed with caution this time around. If it does intervene, it will likely seek some acquiescence from the Islamists and will want to quickly form an inclusive caretaker government.
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Egypt
commentary
Egypt's Self-Fulfilling Prophesy
Jeffrey Martini
Jun 28, 2013
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Rebel, or Tamarud, is a petition drive aimed at ousting President Morsi by collecting more signatures calling for his resignation than the number of votes he received in the 2012 elections. On June 30, the organizers will take to the streets in a rally that is likely to touch off clashes with security forces and Morsi's supporters.
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Egypt
blog
Luxor Governor's Resignation Highlights Growing Divide in Egypt
Jun 25, 2013
The governor of the Egyptian city of Luxor, Mohamed El-Khayat, resigned amid protests last week, just days after being appointed to the post by President Mohamed Morsi. His selection was controversial due to his affiliation with an Islamist terror group that in 1997 killed 62 people in Luxor, many of them tourists.
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Political Reform Movements
blog
In Brief: Jeffrey Martini on Mapping Egyptian Politics
Jeffrey Martini
Apr 8, 2013
In this video, RAND Middle East analyst Jeffrey Martini discusses what past electoral performance and the current political context say about the Islamists' strength in Egypt and what it means for the United States.
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Democracy
blog
New RAND Study Examines Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt
Mar 22, 2013
While much has been written on the electoral strength of Islamists in Egypt, most of the analysis has been done at the national level, ignoring regional divides within the country. A new report identifies the areas where Islamist parties run strongest, and the areas where non-Islamists are most competitive.
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Nation Building
commentary
Egypt's Constitutional Referendum Was an Opportunity Lost
Laurel E. Miller
Dec 21, 2012
U.S. News & World Report
The Egyptian process left no room for broad deliberation of the constitutional issues, or even for educating citizens about the text of the document on which they were asked to vote, writes Laurel Miller.
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Egypt
commentary
Political Impasse in Egypt
Jeffrey Martini
Dec 13, 2012
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
If there ever was a honeymoon in Egypt's post-Mubarak politics, it is long over. The two main ideological camps—Islamists and secular-liberals—have shown a willingness to cooperate only when brought together by a common foe, writes Jeffrey Martini.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Don't Give Up on Egypt's Political Transition Just Yet
Laurel E. Miller
Nov 28, 2012
U.S. News & World Report
Many transitions around the world in recent decades have been just as chaotic, yet 180-degree returns to autocracy have been exceedingly rare, writes Laurel Miller.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Muslim Brotherhood Failing to Learn from Mistakes
Jeffrey Martini
Oct 18, 2012
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
The Muslim Brotherhood is falling into the same trap of overreach exhibited by the Egyptian military when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) held the reins of authority during the first 16 months of the transition, writes Jeffrey Martini.
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Religion and Civil Society
blog
Headscarves on Egyptian Newscasts Are a Victory for Tolerance
Jeffrey Martini
Sep 6, 2012
Lifting the Egyptian ban on headscarves on TV newscasts can be seen as a positive development. It ends state discrimination against those who wish to show their faith outwardly.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
How Does Arab Spring Compare to Third Wave Transitions?
Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini
Aug 17, 2012
Democracy Digest
The changes underway in the Arab world may lead to various possible destinations that differ both from their points of departure and from liberal democracy, write Laurel Miller and Jeffrey Martini.
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Egypt
commentary
Changing of the Guard in Egypt
Julie E. Taylor
Aug 14, 2012
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Morsi's moves were certainly dramatic, and he may not be done. He has “decreed” that he has the right to select the next Constituent Assembly—deciding the constitution—if this one fails or is disbanded, writes Julie Taylor.
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Egypt
commentary
Egypt's New President Has the Mandate—What about the Power?
Jeffrey Martini
Jun 25, 2012
The RAND Blog
Mohamed Morsi's victory is a huge step in Egypt's political development, but his authorities were recently curtailed by the military and it is unclear how much power he will actually wield, writes Jeffrey Martini.
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Politics and Government
commentary
The Egyptian Military Wins Again
Jeffrey Martini
Jun 22, 2012
Foreign Affairs
The Muslim Brotherhood now faces a choice. It can seat Mursi and continue to legitimate a post-Mubarak transition that seems designed to advance the narrow interests of Egypt's officer corps. Or it can return to the streets with the aim of unseating the military council, writes Jeff Martini.
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Egypt
commentary
Cairo's Candidate Shuffle
Jeffrey Martini
Apr 19, 2012
Foreign Affairs
Just as before the disqualifications, the fundamental decision voters face is about the scope and nature of the change Egypt will undergo in the coming years. And there are still candidates representing almost every position on that spectrum, writes Jeffrey Martini.
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Nation Building
commentary
The Year of the Arab Spring
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Dec 20, 2011
GlobalSecurity.org and The RAND Blog
The Arab Spring demonstrated that leaderless revolutions are difficult to repress or co-opt. Unfortunately, it is also true that leaderless revolts find it difficult to make transition to authority, writes Charles Ries.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future
Jeffrey Martini, Julie E. Taylor
Aug 25, 2011
Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2011
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Egypt
commentary
In Obama Speech, Will There Be Aid for Arab Spring Nations?
Julie E. Taylor
May 19, 2011
CNN
Assisting Arab democratic transitions will not eliminate religious extremism. But successful transitions would directly challenge the jihadist brands that promote attacks on America, writes Julie Taylor.
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Global Security
commentary
Is the Arab World Changing for the Better?
David Aaron
May 3, 2011
CQ Global Researcher
If some measure of democracy does result, the elected governments likely will reflect the popular antipathy that the "Arab street" has for both the United States and Israel, writes David Aaron.
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Egypt
commentary
Five Myths about the Muslim Brotherhood
Lorenzo Vidino
Mar 6, 2011
The Washington Post
Much of what we know—or think we know—about the Muslim Brotherhood's ambitions, beliefs and history is clouded by misperceptions, writes Lorenzo Vidino.
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Egypt
commentary
The Domino Effect of Arab Unrest
Julie E. Taylor
Feb 1, 2011
CNN
There is no clear political party or leader ready to step in if the regime in Egypt falls. However, this protest is not without leadership; it is spearheaded by a large network of Egyptian human rights groups and other citizens, writes Julie Taylor.
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