Emerging Technologies

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Brain and Machine Confluence Requires Multi-Sectoral Regulation to Maximize Gains

As the commercialization of brain-computer interface technology expands, it would be prudent for international policymakers to consider how this technology should be regulated, in order to reap its benefits and minimize its risks.

Sana Zakaria @drsana_zak, Joana Gomes Beirao, et al.

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Export Controls Give ASML and the Netherlands an Opportunity to Lead by Example. Will They Take It?

Dutch tech company ASML makes the complex machines required to construct advanced microchips, and it sells many of these machines to China. Harmonization of export controls between the United States and the Netherlands could limit China's development of military technologies and its human rights abuses.

Martijn Rasser, Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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Dementia Rates, Deepfakes, Migrant Students: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the decline of dementia rates among Americans, the dangers of deepfakes, data privacy after the reversal of Roe v. Wade, and more.

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The Age of Uncrewed Surface Vessels

A new age of naval warfare has been inaugurated in the Black Sea, defined by an emerging weapon. Uncrewed surface vessels could become a centerpiece of naval warfare in the coming decades, one that navies may ignore at their peril.

Scott Savitz

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America May Not Be Ready for the Looming Tsunami of Deepfakes

Images and videos have been falsified since the first photographs were taken. But deepfakes are fundamentally different. Their realism, and the scale and ease with which they can be produced, make them incredibly potent disinformation tools.

Jared Mondschein @JSMondschein, Christopher Joseph Doss @Chris_J_Doss, et al.

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Biotechnology and Today's Warfighter

Biotechnology has a broad and often misunderstood scope, one with significant implications for today's warfighter, and it may be reaching a critical junction. As it continues to mature, proactive policy becomes necessary for the federal government to leverage emerging capabilities effectively and remain competitive.

Timothy Marler, Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein

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The CHIPS Act Alone Won't Secure U.S. Semiconductor Supply Chains

The implementation of the CHIPS Act shows promise for revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry via investments in research and development, workforce development, and incentive programs. But executing on these ambitions could take some time and may not resolve all semiconductor supply chain risks.

Jared Mondschein @JSMondschein

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Preparing for a Post-Quantum Future

Future quantum computers could create a significant national security risk by enabling attackers to break a foundational element of security in America's networked communication infrastructure. The United States is taking strides to address national security risks from quantum computing, but there is a long road ahead.

Michael J. D. Vermeer @MJDVermeer

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Will Robotized Fire Power Replace Manned Air Power?

Russia's war in Ukraine entered the summer of 2022 with no clear military victor in sight. Although it is important to exercise caution in drawing any major conclusions, some powerful signs about the future of warfare can be derived from this conflict.

Peter A. Wilson

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Facebook Misinformation Is Bad Enough. The Metaverse Will Be Worse

Virtual reality environments such as the metaverse will enable psychological and emotional manipulation of users at a level unimaginable in today's media. We must not wait until these technologies are fully realized to consider appropriate guardrails for them. We can reap the benefits of the metaverse while minimizing its potential for great harm.

Rand Waltzman

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'The Future Could Be Brilliant': RAND's CEO Is an 'Apocaloptimist'

Jason Matheny, RAND's new president and CEO, explains why he's cautiously optimistic about the future of humanity, the importance of public service, and RAND's role in shaping policy solutions.

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Hack Post-Quantum Cryptography Now So That Bad Actors Don't Do It Later

The U.S. government should consider offering a public cash bounty to anyone who can crack the new forms of encryption that are being rolled out to defend against quantum computers. If a bounty helps catch a vulnerability before it's deployed, then the modest cost of the bounty could prevent much higher costs down the line.

Edward Parker, Michael J. D. Vermeer @MJDVermeer

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Synthetic Opioids, Ukrainian Grain, the Metaverse: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on countering the illegal flow of synthetic opioids, freeing up Ukrainian grain to prevent famine, the importance of defining the metaverse, and more.

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The Metaverse: What It Is and Is Not

The metaverse is quickly expanding, but its meaning remains unclear. Until an agreement on a definition of “metaverse” is reached, efforts to manage the technology development and related public policy could be muddled at best.

Swaptik Chowdhury, Timothy Marler

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Beware the Allure of Training Technology

In addition to focusing on acquiring technology that helps retain a competitive advantage, the U.S. Department of Defense could also focus on codifying processes that align technology with user needs and that adapt as technology, military operations, and needs change. Considering context when planning the development and use of training technology could be crucial.

Timothy Marler