Epidemiology

commentary

We Studied COVID-19 Cases After Birthdays. Family Gatherings Can Still Be Dangerous

The high toll of COVID-19 in the United States is likely partly due to informal social gatherings that have not been subject to state and local restrictions. They are often small, intimate, and involve people we trust. And that makes them dangerous.

Christopher M. Whaley @cm_whaley, Anupam B. Jena

commentary

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

RAND analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

Lawrence Baker, Pedro Nascimento de Lima @PedroNdeLima, et al.

commentary

Do Children Really Transmit COVID-19 Less Than Adults? The Evidence Is Questionable

The theory that children are unlikely to contract or spread COVID-19 may feel reassuring, but it's based on flawed science. Until more is known, adopting aggressive strategies to limit viral spread in schools is the best way to keep students and teachers safe.

Laura F. Garabedian, Rebecca Lee Haffajee

blog

What Happens When States Reopen, Truth Decay, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the health and economic consequences of states reopening, the dangers of Truth Decay during the coronavirus crisis, helping refugees, and more.

commentary

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions Presents Stark Health and Economic Choices

RAND's new COVID-19 interventions impact tool uses epidemiological and economic models and continually refreshed data to estimate what could happen as restrictions are eased. The tool won't make the choices confronting state leaders less painful. But it can provide clear, evidence-based estimates of the health and economic trade-offs.

Jeanne S. Ringel @JeanneRingel, Raffaele Vardavas, et al.

q&a

Reopening America—The Health and Economic Trade-Offs: Q&A with RAND Experts

Local and state officials are thinking through whether, when, and how to lift social-distancing restrictions. We asked three RAND researchers about the complex problem of reopening.

commentary

Estimates of COVID-19's Fatality Rate Might Change. And Then Change Again.

With infections of the new coronavirus confirmed in countries around the world, people are following the daily tally of COVID-19 cases, wondering exactly how lethal this new disease is. The truth is, it's hard to know.

Raffaele Vardavas, Courtney A. Gidengil @c_gidengil, et al.

commentary

An Outbreak of Outbreaks

Lately, stories about outbreaks seem to be spreading faster than the diseases themselves. An outbreak of measles in Ohio is just part of an 18-year high of U.S. cases. Meanwhile, polio continues to circulate in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria, while spreading to other countries, like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Syria.

Melinda Moore, Andrew M. Parker, et al.