Forecasting Methodology

Forecasting Methodology
commentary
Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World
Mann Virdee @MannVirdee, Megan Hughes
Jan 28, 2022
The RAND Blog
Scenarios are a useful tool for informing policy, guiding strategies, and accommodating future change. Using scenario planning to target potential problems or areas for development and building resilience can pinpoint robust policies that could be viable across a range of future states.
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Forecasting Methodology
commentary
How Horizon Scanning Can Give the Military a Technological Edge
Sarah Grand-Clement
Feb 8, 2019
UK MOD Guide to Defence and Security
Horizon scanning could promote innovative practices and innovation uptake, through the adoption of new ideas, equipment, and methods, with benefits that could positively affect the UK economy as a whole. But a wider mechanism for processing and assessing the selected developments would be needed.
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Robust Decision Making
commentary
Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens
Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert, Marjolijn Haasnoot
May 9, 2017
Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
It is difficult to determine what actions balance society's goals where there is deep uncertainty about the consequences. The decisionmaking under uncertainty methodology provides tools to acknowledge uncertainty, avoid overconfidence, promote deliberation, and help craft consensus on sensible approaches to climate change.
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Data Analysis
commentary
No Company Should Be Able to Keep You from Checking Your Government's Math
Brian A. Jackson
Jan 18, 2017
Inside Sources
Data and computer models are becoming more and more important for making policy decisions on everything from prison sentences to tax bills. But citizens should be able to “check the math” on decisions that affect them.
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Crime and Violence Prevention
commentary
Pitfalls of Predictive Policing
Jessica Saunders
Oct 11, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
The Chicago Police Department's predictive policing program didn't work. To achieve even a 5 percent drop in the city's homicide rate, enormous leaps in both prediction and intervention effectiveness are necessary.
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Law Enforcement
commentary
CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing
John S. Hollywood
Sep 21, 2016
Crain's Chicago Business
Predictive policing — the use of computer models to identify areas or people at greater risk of being involved in a serious crime — is yielding results for police. How authorities plan to respond to the data is key.
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Critical Infrastructure Protection
commentary
Infrastructure Design Must Change with Climate
Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert
Aug 12, 2016
Orange County Register
Until recently, infrastructure engineers could use data on past weather to predict future climate. But this is no longer an option. More and more, engineers must consider the effects of climate change. Failure to do so would threaten public safety.
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Global Climate Change
commentary
Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty
Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert
Aug 11, 2015
Nature Climate Change News and Views
Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.
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Crime and Violence Prevention
commentary
What Research Says About Profiling
Michael D. Rich @michaeldrich
Dec 18, 2014
The RAND Blog
When police take action on the basis of race, creed, or ethnicity it is corrosive, unfair, ineffective, and can stoke the flames of police-community tension. But as we have found from a variety of assessments, law enforcement is best served when it bases its activities on risk, not on personal characteristics.
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commentary
Building a Resilient Europe to Face Future Societal Changes to 2030
Benoit Guerin, Daniel Schweppenstedde
Mar 10, 2014
The RAND Blog
Future “societal” trends, ranging from the future of the labor market to the evolving relationship between citizens and the state, are shrouded in uncertainty, which makes it difficult to develop robust, sensible predictions. A RAND Europe report analyzes global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU.
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Russia
commentary
I Predicted Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Paul D. Miller
Mar 10, 2014
Foreign Policy
The Russian military intervention caught many foreign policy analysts by surprise. Articles explaining why Russia wouldn't intervene ran in Foreign Affairs, Time, and the New York Times; and even the intelligence community was caught off guard. Events have proven them wrong.
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commentary
Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World
Nidhi Kalra, Laura Bonzanigo
Feb 28, 2014
The World Bank Let's Talk Development Blog
Changing how we make development decisions requires a cultural shift as much as it requires an analytical shift. Methodological innovations like Robust Decision Making can help. By motivating and equipping analysts to manage uncertainty, they can shape how we think about, discuss, and make decisions.
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Crime and Violence Prevention
commentary
Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball
Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood
Nov 15, 2013
Government Technology
Predictive policing is not an end-all solution, but rather a tool that must be used in concert with other policing resources as part of a broader anti-crime effort. Used properly, predictive policing can predict the risk of future events, but not the events themselves.
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European Union
commentary
The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends
Stijn Hoorens @StijnHoorens
May 9, 2013
Bureau of European Policy Advisors Monthly Bulletin
When planning for the future, we should understand that the capacity to predict the future is rather limited and poor. Rather, an ability to anticipate plausible trends and their potential consequences is more realistic, writes Stijn Hoorens.
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Quoted

The very fact that Russia felt the need to resort to overt, large-scale conventional force in Ukraine—despite years of operating there in the gray zone—demonstrates that at least in Russian president Vladimir Putin's mind, these ambiguous uses of force in Ukraine failed to achieve their desired ends.

Raphael S. Cohen

Director, Strategy and Doctrine Program, RAND Project AIR FORCE

Source: The National Interest

Centering Putin's interests and catering to his emotional state violates a fundamental bargaining precept: Never negotiate against yourself. To be clear, it's good to understand your opponent's perspective. But first, negotiate for your interests, not for theirs. Second, learn what they really want before offering concessions. Third, make sure they can actually deliver.

Raymond Kuo

Political Scientist

Source: RealClearDefense

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Forecasting Methodology

Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World

How Horizon Scanning Can Give the Military a Technological Edge

Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens

No Company Should Be Able to Keep You from Checking Your Government's Math

Pitfalls of Predictive Policing

CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing

Infrastructure Design Must Change with Climate

Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty

What Research Says About Profiling

Building a Resilient Europe to Face Future Societal Changes to 2030

I Predicted Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World

Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball

The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends

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