Forecasting Methodology

Public Health Preparedness

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Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap
This week, we discuss preparing for future pandemics; planning now for a negotiated outcome in Ukraine; insights from Ukraine that relate to Taiwan; the need for more data to help reduce law enforcement–related deaths; how China might react to U.S. posture changes; and using statistics to improve military force planning.
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Nov 4, 2022

Military Force Planning

commentary
Better Defense Planning Could Use Statistics to Try to See into the Future
Statistical forecasting models that are grounded in empirical data can provide a valuable supplement to more-traditional methods. These tools allow for a more-structured and robust exploration of the future, its implications, and our assumptions about it.
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Oct 19, 2022
The RAND Blog
Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick
Forecasting Methodology

commentary
Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World
Scenarios are a useful tool for informing policy, guiding strategies, and accommodating future change. Using scenario planning to target potential problems or areas for development and building resilience can pinpoint robust policies that could be viable across a range of future states.
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Jan 28, 2022
The RAND Blog
Mann Virdee @MannVirdee, Megan Hughes
Forecasting Methodology

commentary
How Horizon Scanning Can Give the Military a Technological Edge
Horizon scanning could promote innovative practices and innovation uptake, through the adoption of new ideas, equipment, and methods, with benefits that could positively affect the UK economy as a whole. But a wider mechanism for processing and assessing the selected developments would be needed.
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Feb 8, 2019
UK MOD Guide to Defence and Security
Sarah Grand-Clement
Robust Decision Making

commentary
Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens
It is difficult to determine what actions balance society's goals where there is deep uncertainty about the consequences. The decisionmaking under uncertainty methodology provides tools to acknowledge uncertainty, avoid overconfidence, promote deliberation, and help craft consensus on sensible approaches to climate change.
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May 9, 2017
Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert, Marjolijn Haasnoot
Data Analysis

commentary
No Company Should Be Able to Keep You from Checking Your Government's Math
Data and computer models are becoming more and more important for making policy decisions on everything from prison sentences to tax bills. But citizens should be able to “check the math” on decisions that affect them.
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Jan 18, 2017
Inside Sources
Brian A. Jackson
Crime and Violence Prevention

commentary
Pitfalls of Predictive Policing
The Chicago Police Department's predictive policing program didn't work. To achieve even a 5 percent drop in the city's homicide rate, enormous leaps in both prediction and intervention effectiveness are necessary.
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Oct 11, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Jessica Saunders
Law Enforcement

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CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing
Predictive policing — the use of computer models to identify areas or people at greater risk of being involved in a serious crime — is yielding results for police. How authorities plan to respond to the data is key.
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Sep 21, 2016
Crain's Chicago Business
John S. Hollywood @JohnS_Hollywood
Critical Infrastructure Protection

commentary
Infrastructure Design Must Change with Climate
Until recently, infrastructure engineers could use data on past weather to predict future climate. But this is no longer an option. More and more, engineers must consider the effects of climate change. Failure to do so would threaten public safety.
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Aug 12, 2016
Orange County Register
Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert
Global Climate Change

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Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty
Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.
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Aug 11, 2015
Nature Climate Change News and Views
Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert
Crime and Violence Prevention

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What Research Says About Profiling
When police take action on the basis of race, creed, or ethnicity it is corrosive, unfair, ineffective, and can stoke the flames of police-community tension. But as we have found from a variety of assessments, law enforcement is best served when it bases its activities on risk, not on personal characteristics.
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Dec 18, 2014
The RAND Blog
Michael D. Rich @michaeldrich
commentary
Building a Resilient Europe to Face Future Societal Changes to 2030
Future “societal” trends, ranging from the future of the labor market to the evolving relationship between citizens and the state, are shrouded in uncertainty, which makes it difficult to develop robust, sensible predictions. A RAND Europe report analyzes global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU.
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Mar 10, 2014
The RAND Blog
Benoit Guerin, Daniel Schweppenstedde
Russia

commentary
I Predicted Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
The Russian military intervention caught many foreign policy analysts by surprise. Articles explaining why Russia wouldn't intervene ran in Foreign Affairs, Time, and the New York Times; and even the intelligence community was caught off guard. Events have proven them wrong.
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Mar 10, 2014
Foreign Policy
Paul D. Miller
commentary
Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World
Changing how we make development decisions requires a cultural shift as much as it requires an analytical shift. Methodological innovations like Robust Decision Making can help. By motivating and equipping analysts to manage uncertainty, they can shape how we think about, discuss, and make decisions.
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Feb 28, 2014
The World Bank Let's Talk Development Blog
Nidhi Kalra, Laura Bonzanigo
Crime and Violence Prevention

commentary
Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball
Predictive policing is not an end-all solution, but rather a tool that must be used in concert with other policing resources as part of a broader anti-crime effort. Used properly, predictive policing can predict the risk of future events, but not the events themselves.
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Nov 15, 2013
Government Technology
Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood @JohnS_Hollywood
European Union

commentary
The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends
When planning for the future, we should understand that the capacity to predict the future is rather limited and poor. Rather, an ability to anticipate plausible trends and their potential consequences is more realistic, writes Stijn Hoorens.
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May 9, 2013
Bureau of European Policy Advisors Monthly Bulletin
Stijn Hoorens @StijnHoorens

Quoted

Software supply chain security has emerged as a leading risk because of the massively fragmented and decentralized nature of modern software development. Unlike other problems in cybersecurity, this is a discrete problem, where the data exist. Information required to map software dependents or dependencies is knowable because there exists a finite limit to the number of nodes and dependencies.

Sasha Romanosky

Senior Policy Researcher

Source: The Hill

Compared to White women, Black women are 3.7 times more likely to die and Asian women 1.8 times more likely to die during or within the 6 weeks after pregnancy.…[W]omen experiencing disadvantage (e.g. domestic abuse, mental health illness, substance abuse) [are] also at greater risk of death during or soon after pregnancy.

Lucy Hocking

Senior Analyst

Source: The RAND Blog

China's Overseas Military Diplomacy and Implications for U.S. Interests

Unhoused Population Increased by 18 Percent in Three Hot-Spot L.A. Neighborhoods

Japan's Strategic Shift: Significant, but Implementation Hurdles May Await

Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine, Gun Violence, Migrant Surges: RAND Weekly Recap

RAND Experts Discuss the Implications of China Easing Zero-COVID Rules

The Policy Currents Podcast

Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive

Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research

Forecasting Methodology

Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap

Better Defense Planning Could Use Statistics to Try to See into the Future

Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World

How Horizon Scanning Can Give the Military a Technological Edge

Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens

No Company Should Be Able to Keep You from Checking Your Government's Math

Pitfalls of Predictive Policing

CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing

Infrastructure Design Must Change with Climate

Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty

What Research Says About Profiling

Building a Resilient Europe to Face Future Societal Changes to 2030

I Predicted Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World

Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball

The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends

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