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Security Cooperation
commentary
The U.S.-France Dustup Over Counterterrorism in the Sahel
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jun 23, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
It's time for Paris and Washington to get together with the G5 nations of the Sahel and draft a strategy for achieving shared objectives. The French cannot do it alone or even with the support of the G5 nations. The U.S. would be penny wise but pound foolish to stay aloof or even just uphold the status quo.
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France
commentary
Macron's Fractious France
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
May 12, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Right-wing nationalism is rising in Europe, but Emmanuel Macron's election in France shows that support remains for liberal-democracy and the European Union. But the struggle over France's future is far from over and Macron will need to tackle his country's economic problems head-on.
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Mali
commentary
What Mali Really Needs
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jan 23, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Mali needs more international engagement, as well as serious pressure on the Malian state to strengthen its hold on the country. The key will be helping beyond just security force assistance and conventional economic development aid; Mali needs help governing.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Emergencies: France, Mali, and Turkey Are Playing with Fire
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Aug 15, 2016
Breaking Defense
The leaders of France, Mali, and Turkey have declared formal states of emergency. France's Hollande and Mali's Keïta, while responding to real threats, are risking democracy. Erdogan appears to be targeting democracy and using Turkey's recent failed coup as a pretext.
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
Why Brexit Won't Necessarily Hurt NATO
Michael Spirtas
Jul 3, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Concerns that the Brexit vote could weaken NATO are overblown. There will likely be a wide range of fallout that will spread beyond the economic realm, but the European Union is not NATO and it's far too early to expect dramatic outcomes.
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Intelligence Collection
commentary
Europe's Terror Fight Far from Over
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Jean-Francois Clair
Mar 22, 2016
CNN
Salah Abdeslam is suspected of being the logistics man for the November terrorist attacks in Paris. His capture may provide authorities with a window into the ISIS network in Europe.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
An African Country the West Has Ignored Could Have a Big Impact on the Global War on Terror
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Feb 26, 2016
Quartz
This week's presidential election in Niger is of real importance for U.S. interests in Africa and the global campaign against militant Islamists. A clean and peaceful election would constitute a step forward that could help secure an effective counterterrorism partner in both the short and long term.
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Refugees
commentary
France Is Right to Stay the Course
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard
Nov 25, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
President Hollande announced that 30,000 Syrian refugees would be welcomed in France, honoring the commitment France made to its European partners before the Paris attacks. Altering its policy would only give the terrorists what they want.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
ISIS Will Become More Deadly Before It Dies
Seth G. Jones @SethGJones
Nov 18, 2015
Slate
The lesson with ISIS is straightforward. Western populations should be prepared for an upsurge in violence if ISIS continues to lose territory. There has already been a growth in attacks and plots across the West with operational or inspirational ties to ISIS.
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France
commentary
Insights on the Paris Terror Attacks from RAND Experts
Nov 17, 2015
RAND experts weigh in on what the wave of coordinated terror attacks across Paris means for France, the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS, the global refugee crisis, and more.
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Military Strategy
commentary
The French Way of War
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Nov 17, 2015
Politico
There is a French way of warfare that reflects the French military's lack of resources and its modest sense of what it can achieve. They specialize in carefully apportioned and usually small but lethal operations, often behind the scenes.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Why the Paris Terrorists Couldn't Be Stopped
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Nov 16, 2015
Slate
Terrorists almost always have the advantage. Theoretically, they can attack anything, anywhere, anytime. And governments cannot protect everything, everywhere, all the time.
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Emergency Preparedness
commentary
Time to Prepare for the Unthinkable
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Nov 16, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
Given ISIS's strategy, it seems only a matter of time before these extremists might attempt an attack in the United States. The irony is that the very rights that Americans hold so dear (liberty, privacy, freedom) place it at greater risk. So what should America do to prepare?
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Terrorist Bombings
commentary
Big Questions Facing France
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Nov 14, 2015
CNN
In Paris, the heavily armed terrorists reportedly struck at six locations, including restaurants, a football stadium, and a theater during a rock concert. It seems clear the killers must have had some confederates. That would mean some terrorists are still at large.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
After Attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait, West Must Do More to Fight Surge of Terrorist Attacks
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 29, 2015
New York Daily News
The terrorist attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait are just the latest warnings that ISIS is turning its campaign into a global enterprise.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
France Is Replacing the UK as America's Top Ally in Europe
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin, Peter A. Wilson
Mar 30, 2015
Newsweek
The United States' relationship with France should be recognized and strengthened. France retains the military capability and the political moxie to contribute significantly and aggressively to collective responses to security threats to the Atlantic Alliance.
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France
commentary
The Front National and the Future of French Foreign Policy
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard
Mar 25, 2015
War on the Rocks
France's far-right party Front National is ascendant. Its leader could be a strong contender in 2017's presidential elections. Do the Front National's current and, possibly, future successes have implications for France's partners and allies in Europe and beyond?
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Help Malians Fight Back
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Mar 13, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
The March 7 terrorist attack that killed five people in a nightclub in Bamako, Mali, underscores the importance of international support for the West African country, which has become another front in the struggle against Islamist radicalism.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Different Countries, Different Ways of Countering Terrorism
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Jean-Francois Clair
Mar 2, 2015
The Hill
France and the United States follow different approaches in dealing with terrorist suspects. This divergence reflects differences in the threat, historical experience, law, available resources, and public attitudes. France faces a more serious terrorist threat than the U.S. does.
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Domestic Intelligence
commentary
Predicting the 'Dangerousness' of Potential Terrorists
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Jean-Francois Clair
Mar 2, 2015
The Hill
Predicting 'dangerousness' of potential terrorists is a hit-and-miss endeavor. Unless someone is waving a gun, it is extremely difficult. Even with direct access to the subject, parole boards, suicide prevention units and even trained clinicians get it wrong.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Attempting to Understand the Paris Attacks
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Jean-Francois Clair
Feb 26, 2015
The Hill
The investigation will eventually fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge of the events leading up to the attacks in Paris, but some questions will remain unanswered. Embedded in the unknowns are some of the chronic dilemmas faced by counterterrorist authorities everywhere.
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France
commentary
Vive France's Defense of Its Jewish Citizens
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Feb 13, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
France is not the problem when it comes to defending Jewish lives and Jewish rights. With a few exceptions, the French state and nation have been stalwart on these issues, if only because the French government has understood that those who strike at Jews usually are striking at values dear to France.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Eight Lessons from the Charlie Hebdo Attack
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 23, 2015
Slate
Among the lessons to be learned from the attacks in Paris are that terrorism has many audiences, Al-Qaida remains a threat, would-be warriors are unconcerned with the schisms among jihadist camps, Europe has a more serious problem, such an attack could happen in the U.S., and intelligence is crucial.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Why al Qaeda in Yemen Attacked Paris
Angel Rabasa
Jan 12, 2015
USA Today
The bloodshed in the Paris offices of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo was a startling reminder of al Qaeda's ambitions, capabilities, and ruthlessness. And whether or not the attack was planned as a marketing device to help al Qaeda emerge from the expanding shadow of the Islamic State, it may be having that effect.
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Terrorism
blog
Terror in Paris, Answers from RAND Experts
Jan 7, 2015
The attack that claimed the lives of 12 people in the offices of a Paris-based satirical magazine sent waves of terror and disbelief across France today. RAND experts discuss what the terrorists stand to gain from the attack, what it could mean for Muslims around the world, and more.
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France
commentary
Does France Have the Master Plan to Defeat ISIS?
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
Sep 24, 2014
The National Interest
In Mali, France stopped jihadists from taking over, ejected them from the country almost entirely, and struck a major blow to their ability to threaten France and the region. This success story provides important lessons for the U.S. debate about how to deal with ISIS.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
France Gets Tougher on Terrorism
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jul 29, 2014
U.S. News & World Report
The launch of Barkhane, a new military operation by France, signals a change. Rather than simply reacting to an emergency as it did in Mali, France is committing to a long-term counterterrorism campaign, a much greater and more public commitment. This is welcome news for the United States.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The End of Freedom Fries
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
Feb 7, 2014
The National Interest
As embattled French president François Hollande prepares for his state visit to Washington next week, defense cooperation is sure to be a bright spot on the agenda—especially when it comes to emerging security challenges in Africa.
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Central Africa
commentary
The Central African Republic Must Save Itself
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Dec 13, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
The coincidence of the passing of Nelson Mandela last week with France's decision to intervene in the Central African Republic highlights a number of inconvenient truths about Africa and the role of the international community in its affairs.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
A First Step in Geneva
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
Nov 25, 2013
Foreign Policy
The Geneva agreement is only a first step toward a comprehensive deal but it is an important achievement. Iran's ability to move toward a nuclear weapons breakout capability has been halted in return for limited sanctions relief.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
The Geneva Blame Game
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
Nov 15, 2013
Lobe Log
Iran and the P5+1 (the U.S., Britain, France, China, and Russia plus Germany) came tantalizingly close to reaching a nuclear deal this past weekend in Geneva, but the talks ended without an agreement. Although both Iran and the United States expressed optimism that much was achieved, a blame game between the different players soon ensued.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
A Not-So-Special Relationship?
F. Stephen Larrabee
Sep 11, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
While the House of Commons vote against Britain's participation in a military strike against Syria was largely attributable to short-term miscalculations on Cameron's part, it also reflects important long-term trends that could complicate U.S.-British ties and weaken the traditionally strong bonds between the two countries.
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Global Security
commentary
When Armies Divide: Securing Nuclear Arsenals During Internal Upheavals
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Apr 12, 2013
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
With an army divided, any type of foreign intervention would be complex and fraught with extraordinary risk—success would be a long shot. But the loss of a nuclear weapon or fissile material would change the world.
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Algeria
blog
A New Book from Brian Michael Jenkins: When Armies Divide
Apr 11, 2013
In 1961, four French generals launched a coup against the government of President Charles de Gaulle and conceivably might have ended up with a nuclear device. In When Armies Divide, RAND's Brian Michael Jenkins uses this unusual chapter in history to discuss what can happen when nuclear states are threatened by revolts, coups, and civil wars.
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Mali
commentary
Foreign Intervention in Mali Is Libya in Reverse
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
Jan 25, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
France is in Mali not just to prop up a failing state in French Africa, but because Mali was becoming a magnet for jihadis from around the world and Paris rightly feared the country could become the next Afghanistan—only much closer to Europe, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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France
commentary
The French Intervention in Mali Is Necessary, but Risky
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jan 17, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
No solution is likely to offer more than a short-term reprise if it is not accompanied by real progress toward resolving Mali's political crisis and strengthening the Malian state and Malian democracy, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin.
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France
commentary
France Needs More Than Force in Mali
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jan 17, 2013
CNN
France should coordinate military action with efforts to engage with local factions to use as partners and proxies, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin. This is, in effect, how France conquered and secured northern Mali in the first place a century ago.
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Mortality
commentary
Americans Dying Twice as Fast as French from Treatable Conditions
Ellen Nolte
Oct 1, 2012
The RAND Blog
Despite high per-capita expenditures in the U.S., Americans under the age of 65 are less likely than their peers in France, Germany, or the United Kingdom to receive timely and appropriate health care, writes Ellen Nolte.
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United Kingdom
commentary
Obama's Calculated Gamble on Libya Strategy
F. Stephen Larrabee
Apr 4, 2011
CNN
Pushing the European allies, especially Britain and France, to take more responsibility in managing crises would reduce the costs and burdens on the United States while providing an incentive for the Europeans to take defense more seriously, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
commentary
France's Creeping Reintegration
F. Stephen Larrabee
Mar 24, 2009
GlobalSecurity.org
At the upcoming NATO summit in Strasbourg-Kehl, French President Sarkozy is expected to formally announce France's return to NATO's integrated military command, from which President de Gaulle withdrew France in 1966. The full reintegration of France into NATO, if confirmed, will remove an important irritant in U.S.-French relations and open up new possibilities for strengthening U.S.-European cooperation more broadly, writes Stephen Larrabee.
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commentary
Pro-American Yes, French Poodle No
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
May 7, 2007
International Herald Tribune
Pro-American Yes, French Poodle No, in International Herald Tribune on May 7, 2007.
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commentary
Immigrants in France
Robert A. Levine
Dec 10, 2004
United Press International
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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commentary
French Tussle Over Muslim Head Scarf is Positive Push for Women's Rights
Cheryl Benard
Jan 5, 2004
Christian Science Monitor
French President Jacques Chirac has been sharply criticized by Muslim clerics around the world for his recent call for a ban on the Islamic head scarf, or hijab, in French public schools. Mr. Chirac's move has been attacked as a curtailment of personal freedom and an assault on Islam.
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commentary
How Deep an Ocean?
Robert E. Hunter
Feb 23, 2003
Newsday
Whether or not there is war in Iraq, NATO, the European Union and transatlantic relations already have been deeply affected, posing the gravest challenge to all three since at least the end of the Cold War, writes Robert Hunter in an commentary.
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