Geopolitical Strategic Competition

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Extremism, Medicaid, Florida's 'Don't Say Gay' Law: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing domestic extremism, managing reductions in Medicaid enrollment, the effects of Florida's “Don't Say Gay” law, and more.

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Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough

The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick in Conversation

Though not a great power war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused many to wonder what a true great power war in Europe or the Indo-Pacific would look like, and especially what kind of world would emerge afterwards. Two RAND researchers discuss how their recent report sheds light on this issue.

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Violence in Sudan, Alcohol Use, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the violence in Sudan, preventing alcohol-related deaths, the North Korean nuclear threat, and more.

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A Civilian U.S. 'Joint Chiefs' for Economic Competition with China?

China's aggressive activities are presenting a serious, sustained challenge to the international order. To position itself for this new era, the United States could create a civilian equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff with a mandate to manage the expanding role of U.S. civilian departments in geopolitical and economic competition.

Barry Pavel @BarryPavel, Daniel Egel

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Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater

Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. How do we interpret Putin's statements? While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Stick with Europe

The United States' chief competitive advantage in the contest with China is its dominant global network of friends and allies. Now is the time to strengthen those coveted ties—in Europe and elsewhere.

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'

When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative.

Scott Savitz

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Japan's New Security Policies: A Long Road to Full Implementation

The historic ambition contained within Japan's new defense strategies is notable. But the reality is that an extraordinary alignment of political, economic, fiscal, and other stars will be necessary for Japan's government to fully implement their stated ambitions over the next five to ten years.

Adam P. Liff, Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War

China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.

Timothy R. Heath

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Twenty Years After the Iraq War, a Q&A with RAND Experts

On the 20th anniversary of the war in Iraq, RAND experts discussed what the war means for the people of Iraq and the veterans who fought there, what lessons the U.S. military learned (or did not learn), and what effect it has had on the balance of power in the Middle East and the global reputation of the United States.

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Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.

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What Does Russia's War on Ukraine Mean for the International Order?

Russia's war on Ukraine has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. It has also highlighted the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: A Bleak Outlook for Russia

Whatever may happen in Ukraine or in Russia, things will never be the same. A Russian failure in Ukraine could lead to escalation and a world-changing wider war, or it could lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make for a very different world.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia

The election of the Philippines' new president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in May 2022 has proven exceptionally significant for Washington's security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Marcos has prioritized the maintenance of healthy ties to the United States, marking a sharp departure from the foreign policy of his predecessor.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Great Power Competition Is on the Arctic Agenda

Despite its military problems in Ukraine, Russia remains a formidable potential adversary in the Arctic. And there is a growing realization that China is not going away in the Arctic, bringing both of the United States' strategic competitors into Alaska's backyard. Can great power politics be checked at the door of the Far North?

Abbie Tingstad, Yuliya Shokh

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India Upholds the Rules-Based Liberal International Order—But in Its Own Way

Contrary to continued U.S. questions about the degree of New Delhi's commitment to the liberal international order, India has shown that it is committed in its own, sometimes limited way. Of course, securing Indian national interests will always be paramount. U.S. policymakers might recognize that any additional pressure is likely to be counterproductive.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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The Racial Wealth Gap, the Effects of Long COVID, Teacher Diversity: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on understanding the racial wealth gap, why long COVID may threaten the U.S. economy, what prevents people of color from becoming and staying teachers, and more.

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Protests in China, Negotiating with Russia, L.A.'s 'Mansion Tax': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on protests in China amid the government's zero-COVID policy, the potential harm in negotiating with Russia, building more affordable housing in Los Angeles, and more.

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Racism and Patient Safety, Abortion After Dobbs, Homelessness: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss how racism impacts patient safety; the effects of overturning Roe v. Wade; trauma in the U.S. Intelligence Community; addressing homelessness in L.A.; disputes in the South China Sea; and how space mirrors might help address climate change.

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Strategic Advantage, Sovereignty and Australia's Geopolitical Identity

In Australia, which has experienced few national existential crises, there appears to be little understanding of or consideration given to all the nuanced contours of winning. Australia may need to critically assess its strategic traditions to develop a broader conceptualization of how to secure the safety and well-being of the nation and position itself advantageously.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

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Civic Education, Twitter's Bot Problem, Police Reform: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses civic and citizenship education in America, addressing Twitter’s bot problem, why community engagement is key to police reform, and more.

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Putin's Latest Threats, U.S. Policy in the Middle East, Disaster Recovery: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Russia's troop mobilization and the ongoing war in Ukraine, U.S. policy in the Middle East, building a more diverse teacher workforce, and more.

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China's Military Aid Is Probably Less Than You Think

The first comprehensive assessment of Chinese military aid shows that China's $560 million total during 2013-2018 pales in comparison to the U.S. total of over $35 billion in the same period. This should offer advantages in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

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Embracing Intrinsic Cultural Advantages in Innovation

The United States has long enjoyed the benefits of novel technology, but it could lose ground soon as other countries advance. Could it be time for the United States to embrace the advantages in innovation that it holds relative to near-peers like China?

Will Shumate, Timothy Marler

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Overturning Roe, a New Mental Health Hotline, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how repealing Roe v. Wade could affect women in the military, whether America is prepared to launch a new emergency mental health hotline, Russia's war in Ukraine, and more.

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Science and Security: Setting the Direction for the UK's Research Relationship with China

UK-China research has the potential to sustain the very forms of academic excellence that a more-isolationist approach sets out to protect, while also raising the possibility of bridge-building and tackling shared problems. For this to become a reality, knowledge and understanding of China in the United Kingdom must improve.

Peter Carlyon

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Has the War in Ukraine Damaged Russia's Gray Zone Capabilities?

Russia's actions are to blame for the damage done to its gray zone capabilities, but it's the West's choice to see whether this respite represents a short-term aberration or presents opportunities for some long-term fixes.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Gun Policy, China and Taiwan, Russian Propaganda: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on reducing America's unacceptably high rates of gun violence, what would happen if China “quarantines” Taiwan, and Russia's “firehose of falsehood.”

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It's Time to Drop 'Competition' in the National Defense Strategy

What should the U.S. Defense Department do during peacetime if the United States is not competing with China and Russia? Simply put, it should prepare to win the next war, while defeating any military aggression below the threshold of conflict.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Russian Mercenaries in Great-Power Competition: Strategic Supermen or Weak Link?

The weaknesses within Russian mercenary forces and within the Russian state in relation to press-ganged youths, conscripts, and casualties may offer opportunities for exploitation in great-power competition. These broader weaknesses in Russian national will to fight could be examined to identify more ways to prevent Russia from aggressively undermining Western democracy.

Molly Dunigan, Ben Connable

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Thinking in (Napoleonic) Times: Historical Warnings for an Era of Great-Power Competition

Over the last several years, great-power competition has become a major topic of discussion, prompting policymakers, scholars, and pundits alike to look to the past for lessons to explain the emerging contest between the United States and China. Considering how a variety of historical powers have faced rising challengers can aid our understanding of the challenges ahead.

Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans

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This Is Not a Great-Power Competition

The emerging conventional wisdom among foreign policy analysts in Washington is that a new era of great-power competition is upon us. But does that phrase really capture today's reality?

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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The Need to Think More Clearly About 'Great-Power Competition'

Today's world order is increasingly defined by competition between the United States and a host of major powers, especially China and Russia. Who is America's principal competitor and over what is it competing? What is America’s ultimate objective? And how will it prepare its economy and its society for infinite competition of an indefinite nature?

Ali Wyne

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Cluster Munitions and Rearming for Great Power Competition

The United States might need Cluster munitions, anti-personnel landmines, and tactical nuclear weapons to deter or defeat aggression. If policymakers choose to lift bans on these munitions, the ensuing policy restrictions might be tailored to address where these capabilities are necessary.

David E. Johnson

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Managing Chaos in an Era of Great Power Competition

As Washington policymakers seek a new strategic course, U.S. national security strategy should not neglect the importance of competition short of armed conflict. A U.S. strategy that incorporates this perspective from the beginning could manage chaos at a reasonable cost.

Austin Long, Linda Robinson, et al.