International Diplomacy

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India Can Bridge the U.S.-Russia Divide over Ukraine

No country is as well positioned as India to mediate between Russia and the United States, and bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. Even limited success in ending the war will bolster India's credentials as an emerging great power, capable of accomplishing remarkable things that others cannot.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.

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Is Australia's Defense Strategy Based on a Mistaken Assumption?

The concept of ”impactful projection“has become a topic of heightened interest in the Australian strategic discourse, as pundits wait on further information from the Defense Strategic Review. But is the concept underpinned by a fundamentally mistaken assumption?

Marigold Black, Austin Wyatt

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The End and Beyond

We don't know yet know how the war in Ukraine may end. Despite heavy casualties, neither side is visibly falling apart or appears ready to back down. While no scenario can be excluded, the unequal strategic situation pushes future war scenarios toward variations of a stalemate.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Ukraine Should Not Close Off Routes to the Negotiating Table

Ukraine and Russia will probably eventually return to the table—perhaps not this month or even this year—and therefore it is important to debate ideas for how to get there, not to dismiss them.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe

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Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing

Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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What Does Russia's War on Ukraine Mean for the International Order?

Russia's war on Ukraine has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. It has also highlighted the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea

There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?

Erik Mobrand

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: A Bleak Outlook for Russia

Whatever may happen in Ukraine or in Russia, things will never be the same. A Russian failure in Ukraine could lead to escalation and a world-changing wider war, or it could lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make for a very different world.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia

The election of the Philippines' new president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in May 2022 has proven exceptionally significant for Washington's security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Marcos has prioritized the maintenance of healthy ties to the United States, marking a sharp departure from the foreign policy of his predecessor.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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One Year of Russia's War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the one-year anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine: What has stood out to RAND experts so far? And what are they watching as the conflict continues?

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The Three Vladimir Putins

What happens next in the war in Ukraine depends almost exclusively on the mindset, will, and decisions of Vladimir Putin. The various descriptions of Putin suggest three different characters: strongman Putin, messianic Putin, and rational Putin. We may take more comfort in the last. We probably shouldn't.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

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Great Power Competition Is on the Arctic Agenda

Despite its military problems in Ukraine, Russia remains a formidable potential adversary in the Arctic. And there is a growing realization that China is not going away in the Arctic, bringing both of the United States' strategic competitors into Alaska's backyard. Can great power politics be checked at the door of the Far North?

Abbie Tingstad, Yuliya Shokh

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Preparing for the Next India-China Border Crisis

Mounting tensions between India and China due to Chinese encroachment on their disputed border affect the United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy. Washington should assist New Delhi in deterring further Chinese attempts to nibble away at Indian territory and be ready to respond quickly in case events spiral out of control.

Lisa Curtis, Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman