International Diplomacy

commentary

What's the Harm in Talking to Russia? A Lot, Actually

Despite the way it is commonly portrayed, diplomacy is not intrinsically and always good, nor is it cost-free. In the Ukraine conflict, the problems with a push for diplomacy are especially apparent. The likely benefits of negotiations are minimal, and the prospective costs could be significant.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

Governance in Space: Mining the Moon and Beyond

Without further cooperation and agreement among space powers, multiple, competing governance systems may end up being established, further increasing potential for conflict. The time to address this issue is now, so that the use of deep-space resources contributes to prosperity, security, and freedom on Earth and throughout the solar system.

Jan Osburg, Mary Lee @MaryLee_PhD

commentary

How Russia's War in Ukraine Has Impacted Its Christian Image

Over the past decade, the Russian government has taken pains to present itself as a bastion of Christianity and traditional values. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, however, there have been noticeable cracks in the receptivity to this messaging strategy.

Ryan Bauer

commentary

America's Pacific Island Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The United States hosted its first Pacific Islands Summit in September. Pacific Island leaders and observers from over a dozen states participated in the event and pledged to jointly tackle various challenges. But this historic summit was hardly an absolute success, and should be put within its proper context.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

blog

Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss preparing for future pandemics; planning now for a negotiated outcome in Ukraine; insights from Ukraine that relate to Taiwan; the need for more data to help reduce law enforcement–related deaths; how China might react to U.S. posture changes; and using statistics to improve military force planning.

commentary

Enhance U.S. Rare Earth Security Through International Cooperation

Most rare earth elements and materials are sourced from overseas but China dominates extraction and processing. With closer multinational cooperation, the United States and its allies and partners could reduce vulnerabilities due to the dependency on China.

Marta Kepe @martakepe, Fabian Villalobos @doktor_wolfhaus

commentary

How Should the U.S. Military Share Secrets?

For security cooperation to work, allies may need access to details of U.S. military plans and activities. But does the need for a clearly defined U.S. advantage prevent sharing information that may be broadly in the U.S. interest? Who should evaluate this advantage, and at what level?

Andrew Radin @andrewmradin

blog

Racism and Patient Safety, Abortion After Dobbs, Homelessness: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss how racism impacts patient safety; the effects of overturning Roe v. Wade; trauma in the U.S. Intelligence Community; addressing homelessness in L.A.; disputes in the South China Sea; and how space mirrors might help address climate change.

commentary

Planning Now for a Negotiated Outcome in Ukraine

The United States should consider keeping open lines of communication with Russia. While it may not lead to peace in Ukraine any time soon, it could help mitigate the risks of dramatic escalation and indefinite war.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe

commentary

The West and Russia the Day After

In the 1990s, after the breakup of the USSR, the West adapted to and helpfully influenced the birth of 15 new republics. If liberalizing change comes anew, the West may seek to help Russia heal itself for the long term.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

Strategic Advantage, Sovereignty and Australia's Geopolitical Identity

In Australia, which has experienced few national existential crises, there appears to be little understanding of or consideration given to all the nuanced contours of winning. Australia may need to critically assess its strategic traditions to develop a broader conceptualization of how to secure the safety and well-being of the nation and position itself advantageously.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

commentary

Xi Jinping Is Weaker Than You Think

Although Xi wields significant influence over Chinese domestic politics—certainly more than his most recent predecessors—he still needs support from the Party elite. And on that front, some cracks are showing.

Howard Wang

commentary

Protecting Ukraine's Future Security

Western support for Ukraine's future security could depend in part on how the war ends and the extent to which Moscow remains threatening. Ukraine can better protect its security through robust, tangible security ties with the West.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?

The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill

commentary

American Investment in Mideast to Stay Focused on Larger Economies Amid Ukraine War

China is often viewed as the economic powerhouse in the Middle East, but the United States has extensive trade, investment, and financial links. U.S. economic involvement in the Middle East is likely to stay focused on larger markets in line with economic growth, without dramatic shifts in location or magnitude.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz