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International Diplomacy

Japan
commentary
Japan's Hormuz Dilemma
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Aug 16, 2019
The Hill
With rising tensions between the United States and Iran, the United States wants to create a coalition to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, and wants Japan to join. While Japan is one of America's staunchest allies in the Indo-Pacific, any decision to support coalition efforts is likely to put Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a difficult position.
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North Korea
commentary
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christian Curriden, Dung Huynh
Aug 12, 2019
38 North
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
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Taiwan
commentary
Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Aug 9, 2019
Institut Montaigne
Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.
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Iran
commentary
Iran's Cooperation with the Taliban Could Affect Talks on U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 9, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has acknowledged that his country has some level of cooperation with the Taliban. How did Iran's relationship with the Taliban come about? And how might it affect the future of U.S.-Taliban talks?
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Reagan's Cold War Lessons for Handling Russia
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Aug 9, 2019
RealClearWorld
Rising public protests in Russia may be putting the Kremlin on the defensive at home. But Moscow is playing offense abroad, challenging the West more than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency. Reagan's strategy to counter the Kremlin back then offers insights that could help guide U.S. policy today.
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Military Facilities
commentary
The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia
Timothy R. Heath
Aug 7, 2019
World Politics Review
China and Cambodia have reportedly signed a secret agreement allowing the Chinese navy to use a military facility near Ream, along Cambodia's southern coast, though both countries deny the reports. The installation of a Chinese military facility in Cambodia, if realized, would further complicate an already sensitive and tense situation in the region.
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China
commentary
Yes, Sam Huntington Has Insights to Guide U.S. Competition with China
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Jul 25, 2019
Financial Times
Many U.S. observers believe that the United States is declining relative to China. The United States' long-term competitiveness will be served neither by assuming that China is fated to collapse on account of its internal contradictions nor by presuming that it is destined to preside over a world order with Chinese characteristics. Sustainable strategy requires a measured disposition.
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North Korea
commentary
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jul 15, 2019
The National Interest
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
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Hong Kong
commentary
Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 3, 2019
The Hill
Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.
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North Korea
commentary
How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jul 2, 2019
The Hill
The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Preparing for a Venezuela After Maduro
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 24, 2019
Foreign Affairs
If it becomes evident that Maduro isn't about to fall, then the Trump administration should revisit its sanctions and rescind those that weigh most heavily on the Venezuelan people, while targeting and isolating the regime.
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Politics and Government
commentary
One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 21, 2019
Foreign Policy
The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's “one country, two systems” policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.
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Iran
commentary
A Post-2020 U.S. Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Elisa Catalano Ewers
Jun 20, 2019
Foreign Policy
Now that the United States is out of the Iran nuclear deal, signing back on will not be as simple or as practical as some may hope. Too much has happened since it was first inked in 2015. With the political landscape in Tehran and Washington still taking shape, those who want to return to some kind of deal should start planning.
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North Korea
commentary
One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes
Soo W. Kim
Jun 17, 2019
The Hill
After two summits between the United States and North Korea, and little to show in the way of deliverables on dismantlement, hopes that a third summit may yield a denuclearization deal seem a bit unrealistic. Essentially, there has been no indication of intent on Kim's part to denuclearize. But the North Korea problem is much greater than nukes.
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Iran
commentary
The Costs of Confrontation with Iran Are Mounting
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jun 17, 2019
The Hill
Even if the United States and Iran avoid a direct military clash, recent escalation and the U.S. maximum pressure campaign are exacting long-term costs for U.S. interests and regional stability in ways that may be difficult if not impossible to reverse.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Can Washington and Moscow Agree to Limit Political Interference?
Samuel Charap @scharap, Ivan Timofeev
Jun 13, 2019
War on the Rocks
After his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia had proposed a mutual non-interference pledge. The concept of elaborating norms of non-interference on a mutual basis might be the best way to stabilize U.S.-Russian relations and prevent the damaging episodes of recent years from happening again.
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