International Diplomacy

Turkey
commentary
A Way Forward for the United States and Turkey
Nilsu Goren, Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jul 9, 2020
Al-Monitor
Relations between the United States and Turkey, while fraught with tension, must also align with a mutual interest in stability in the Middle East and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. It may be important for the region's stability and prosperity to find constructive ways for the United States to work with Turkey in the years ahead.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
The Cost of Brexit Uncertainty and the Negative Implications for the UK Economy
Christian Van Stolk, Marco Hafner
Jul 8, 2020
The RAND Blog
Leaving the European Union has had an overall negative economic impact on the UK economy and there are additional economic costs associated with the uncertainty surrounding the new relationship. Will there be a deal and if there is a deal what type of deal is likely to be in place?
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International Economic Relations
commentary
Demystifying the Belt and Road Initiative
Rafiq Dossani
Jul 6, 2020
Encompass
Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China works with more than 70 countries to design and implement large infrastructure projects. Why are countries of all stripes turning to China for funding when the world is awash with cash?
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North Korea
commentary
Will the Real Kim Yo Jong Stand Up?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jul 6, 2020
The Hill
It is incredibly difficult to get any reliable information about the leaders in North Korea. This is especially true with Kim Jong Un's younger sister, Kim Yo Jong. But it's in the best interests of the United States to get to know as much as possible about someone who could become the leader of a nuclear-armed state like North Korea.
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China
commentary
Chinese Border Aggression Against India Likely Unrelated to Pandemic
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 6, 2020
The Diplomat
Some argue that Beijing's aggression at the China-India border is part of an attempt to exploit the pandemic. But it may simply be a continuation of China's threatening behavior in the Indo-Pacific, which began before COVID-19 started to spread.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia
Luke Griffith
Jul 1, 2020
RealClearPolicy
By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.
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North Korea
commentary
Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Jun 29, 2020
The National Interest
The end of the Korean War and peace on the peninsula are no more likely to occur as the result of a peace agreement than has North Korean denuclearization occurred as the result of multiple denuclearization agreements. Ultimately, North Korean objectives matter, and real peace does not appear to be part of those objectives.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 18, 2020
The Diplomat
China hailed Philippines President Duterte's announcement in February of an end to the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months as evidence the United States was losing the great power competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. But on June 2, Duterte decided to postpone the VFA termination, breathing new life into the decades-long agreement.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
As COVID-19 Makes Clear, U.S. Allies in the Indo-Pacific, Not the Money They Pay to Host U.S. Forces, Are the Value Proposition
Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Jun 12, 2020
The Dlplomat
The great value the United States extracts from its alliances with Japan and South Korea is not the money they provide to offset the costs of hosting U.S. forces; the value is the deep and abiding alliances themselves and the liberal, democratic, rule of law market economies and societies to which they link the United States.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
commentary
Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Frank G. Klotz
Jun 11, 2020
Newsweek
Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the continued reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to other countries to conduct nuclear tests of their own.
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North Korea
commentary
For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold, Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Jun 8, 2020
RealClearDefense
Would Kim Jong Un's death improve U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? Maybe not. North Korea's advancing nuclear and other military capabilities are driving an expanded set of problems, and while Kim's sudden death might constitute a destabilizing factor for the regime, the available evidence suggests the regime itself is the problem.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?
Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Jun 8, 2020
The Hill
The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
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Taiwan
commentary
Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 3, 2020
The Diplomat
For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why the United States Will Need a New Foreign Policy in 2020
Raphael S. Cohen
May 26, 2020
The Hill
Even before the pandemic, the United States faced a growing strategic predicament: U.S. challenges are mounting, and America's international commitments increasingly outstrip its means to fulfill them.
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Russia
commentary
Russia's Challenge and Syria's Chance
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh
May 20, 2020
Newsweek
With much of Syria lying in ruins, Russia can back a revived United Nations–led peacemaking process, or see the West rebuff its appeals for large-scale aid. If Russia chooses wisely, the West, wealthy Gulf countries, and China could help. If Moscow procrastinates, the West may withhold assistance and continue cooperation with regional partners.
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China
commentary
China's Aggression Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Has Little to Do with COVID-19
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 20, 2020
World Politics Review
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to monopolize the attention of leaders around the world, some international observers of China have concluded that Beijing is attempting to exploit the crisis for geopolitical gain. The reality is that China has been engaging in the same types of pressure tactics for years and will likely continue once the pandemic passes.
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International Diplomacy

A Way Forward for the United States and Turkey

The Cost of Brexit Uncertainty and the Negative Implications for the UK Economy

Demystifying the Belt and Road Initiative

Will the Real Kim Yo Jong Stand Up?

Chinese Border Aggression Against India Likely Unrelated to Pandemic

Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia

Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?

China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines

As COVID-19 Makes Clear, U.S. Allies in the Indo-Pacific, Not the Money They Pay to Host U.S. Forces, Are the Value Proposition

Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now

For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat

Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?

Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?

Why the United States Will Need a New Foreign Policy in 2020

Russia's Challenge and Syria's Chance

China's Aggression Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Has Little to Do with COVID-19

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