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International Trade

United Kingdom
commentary
Finding the Real Will of the People
Charlene Rohr, Jonathan Grant
Apr 30, 2019
The New European
It's not surprising that the British Parliament is struggling to find a solution to the Brexit impasse. That's because the 2016 vote revealed nothing about the sort of Brexit people actually wanted. When researchers asked Brits to choose between four options in 2017, there was no obvious winner.
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China
commentary
Book Review: 'Unrivaled' by Michael Beckley
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Apr 18, 2019
The National Interest
In Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower Michael Beckley argues not only that U.S. preeminence is safer than most contemporary commentary would have one believe, but also that it is more resilient.
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United Kingdom
commentary
Life After Brexit Need Not Be a Disaster for the UK
Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz
Mar 18, 2019
The Hill
Leaving the European Union without a deal will be costly for Britain. But there are actions that could be taken now to help improve the economic prospects of a fully independent UK.
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Public Evidence of Huawei as a Cyber Threat May Be Elusive, but Restrictions Could Still Be Warranted
Timothy R. Heath
Mar 7, 2019
The Hill
Although a “smoking gun” of Huawei involvement in government-directed espionage remains elusive, the United States has compelling security and economic reasons to consider limiting the involvement of Chinese telecommunications companies in its domestic networks.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The End of the End of History?
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jan 8, 2019
The Wall Street Journal
The Trump administration has taken steps that represent a significant retreat from the norm-based, world order that the United States has championed since 1945. If this shift continues, what might be the impact?
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International Trade
commentary
Engagement vs. Competition: The China Policy Debate
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Dec 31, 2018
The Hill
There is a consensus that the U.S. is engaged in an intensifying strategic competition with China. It's less clear what relationship the U.S. should seek and can plausibly achieve with its competitor. An inability to classify China along the ally-to-adversary continuum limits, if not precludes, America's ability to formulate a coherent strategy.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
The Trump-Xi Meeting at G-20: Kicking the Can Down the Road
Rafiq Dossani
Dec 14, 2018
RealClearWorld
Much was expected of the discussion at the 2018 G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires between the United States and China on their ongoing trade war. However, nothing of significance emerged. With signs of a global economic slowdown surfacing earlier than expected, the failed outcomes of this meeting could come back to haunt world leaders.
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United Kingdom
commentary
The UK Can't Have Its Brexit Cake and Eat It Too
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Dec 11, 2018
The Hill
If the UK wishes to negotiate free-trade deals around the world, it has to either rebuild a border in Ireland or put up a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. If it crashes out of the EU with no agreement, the economic costs are the highest and border chaos is likely.
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Politics and Government
commentary
We Asked the British Public What Kind of Brexit They Want—and a Norway-Like Deal Is the Clear Winner
Charlene Rohr, David Howarth, Jonathan Grant
Oct 11, 2018
The Conversation
The Brexit referendum outcome reveals very little about what people actually wanted. But a RAND Europe study of what people value about the EU finds that their priorities map most squarely onto a Norway-style model for future relations between the UK and the EU.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
The Implications of U.S.-China Trade Tensions for Japan
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Sep 18, 2018
Kyodo News
Washington and Beijing seem prepared to begin decoupling from one another economically, which puts Tokyo in a difficult position. Japan may have to devise new strategies not only for sustaining its growth, but also for insulating itself from the impact of deteriorating relations between the United States and China.
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Globalization
commentary
The Global Order Will Outlast U.S. Leadership
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Aug 23, 2018
The Wall Street Journal
Even if America bails on the international order there is plenty of evidence that Europe, China, Japan, and the rest of the developed world will maintain existing multilateral structures and build new ones. The order will survive but may become less liberal, less democratic, and perhaps less peaceful.
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Threat Assessment
commentary
The Security Risks of a Trade War with China
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Aug 6, 2018
Foreign Affairs
As U.S.-China trade tensions continue to rise, many observers are focused on the potential for a full-fledged trade war that could destabilize the world economy. But there are security concerns as well. A China less constrained by and invested in economic ties with the United States could pose a greater challenge to U.S. foreign policy.
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Trade Barriers
commentary
The U.S.-China Trade War: Different Messages
Rafiq Dossani
Jul 20, 2018
RealClearWorld
The trade war between the United States and China began with the notification of tariffs on $34 billion of traded goods on each side. Officials on both sides of the Pacific are using different messages to convey the dispute. What are the real impacts likely to be?
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Arctic Region
commentary
Cooperation in the Arctic Likely to Continue—For Now
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Antonia Ward
Jul 12, 2018
The RAND Blog
Risks for serious tensions in the Arctic during the 2020s are likely to be overstated. Key players in the Arctic appear likely to continue working together to enhance the economic potential of the region and resolve conflicts before they emerge, as opportunities in the Arctic continue to grow.
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China
commentary
Book Review: Elizabeth Economy's The Third Revolution
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Jun 26, 2018
Global Asia
The United States' attitude towards China is undergoing a significant recalibration, perhaps the most fundamental since Beijing's crackdown at Tiananmen Square almost three decades ago. Harnessing its resurgence while tempering its revisionism will likely be Washington's most vexing long-term policy challenge.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Need for Superpowers to Embrace a Vision of World Affairs
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Jun 21, 2018
The RAND Blog
A superpower promotes a conception of world affairs that attracts others, enabling it to advance its objectives and amplify its values far more than it could on its own. Washington has a significant edge over Beijing in this regard.
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