International Trade

commentary

Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Export Controls Give ASML and the Netherlands an Opportunity to Lead by Example. Will They Take It?

Dutch tech company ASML makes the complex machines required to construct advanced microchips, and it sells many of these machines to China. Harmonization of export controls between the United States and the Netherlands could limit China's development of military technologies and its human rights abuses.

Martijn Rasser, Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

commentary

Russian Aircraft Keep Crashing. Could Sanctions Be the Cause?

At least six fixed-wing Russian aircraft have crashed over Russian-controlled airspace since September. Sanctions placed on Russia by the West could well be affecting Russia's ability to manufacture and maintain parts needed to keep aircraft safe.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

commentary

Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?

Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.

Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini

commentary

American Investment in Mideast to Stay Focused on Larger Economies Amid Ukraine War

China is often viewed as the economic powerhouse in the Middle East, but the United States has extensive trade, investment, and financial links. U.S. economic involvement in the Middle East is likely to stay focused on larger markets in line with economic growth, without dramatic shifts in location or magnitude.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

blog

Gun Storage, the Dangers of Replacement Theory, War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how Americans store their guns, why ‘replacement theory' is a danger to us all, the war in Ukraine, and more.

essay

The Economic Returns of Foreign Language Learning

If just 10 percent more students in the United Kingdom mastered Arabic, Mandarin, French, or Spanish, the economic returns could be measured in billions of British pounds. Removing the language barrier reduces trade costs.

commentary

Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain

As Russia has been blockading ports around Odesa, Ukrainian grain exports in May were more than 60 percent lower than a year ago. Global hunger has hit a new high while 22 million tons of grain in Ukraine could rot if not exported soon.

Bradley Martin, William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

Russia Does Not Seem to Be After Ukraine's Gas Reserves

There seems to be very little reason to believe that the true stakes of the war in Ukraine are the country's natural gas reserves, as some have speculated. Ukrainian gas fields appear too small to justify the costs of the invasion, too hard to keep, and almost impossible for Russia to exploit.

Krystyna Marcinek @KMMarcinek

commentary

Russia Engine Troubles: Is Putin's Behavior Catching Up with Him?

Actions taken to curb Russian malign activities around the globe appear to be affecting Russia's marine and aerospace engine sector. Efforts to arrest Russia's bad behavior might gain momentum if more countries followed the lead of Norway, which chose supporting sanctions over short-term economic gain.

Chandler Sachs, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini

commentary

Depoliticizing Russian Gas in Europe

At their June 16 Summit in Geneva, Presidents Biden and Putin might consider how to reduce the sharp tensions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Cooperation among governments and companies may offer potential.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Richard Kauzlarich

commentary

An Economic Blueprint for North Korea

It would be simplistic to think that developing detailed blueprints for economic development in North Korea could on its own cut through decades of conflict and mistrust, triggering political and economic reform. But by expanding the terms of the debate it might move the needle on peace.

Krishna B. Kumar

commentary

RCEP Forms the World's Largest Trading Bloc. What Does This Mean for Global Trade?

In November, 15 nations signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free-trade agreement of economic and political significance eight years in the making. Why have some heralded RCEP as a landmark agreement?

Tobias Sytsma

commentary

A Free Trade Agreement Still Comes with Costs

Major issues must be resolved before any UK-EU agreement on post-Brexit trade and economic relations is completed. There will be substantial costs associated with even a zero-tariff trade deal.

Charles P. Ries @charles_ries, Marco Hafner

commentary

The Cost of Brexit Uncertainty and the Negative Implications for the UK Economy

Leaving the European Union has had an overall negative economic effect on the UK economy, and there are additional economic costs associated with the uncertainty surrounding the new relationship. Will there be a deal? And if so, what type of deal is likely?

Christian Van Stolk, Marco Hafner