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Iraq

Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
If We Don't Get the Peace Right, Iraq Will Slide Back into the Morass
Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Feb 12, 2018
Newsweek
Actions taken now by the United States, the Iraqi government, and private parties could determine the war-torn country's future. The message the Sunnis receive in these next six months will determine whether Iraq is on the path to stability.
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United States
blog
Trump's First State of the Union: Insights from RAND
Jan 31, 2018
RAND research, analysis, and expertise provide context for the issues discussed in the president's first State of the Union address, including infrastructure, North Korea, and opioids.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
essay
What Life Under ISIS Looked Like from Space
Jan 9, 2018
Satellite images show how ISIS attempted to govern in Iraq and Syria, the economic damage the group left behind, and what it will take to rebuild.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
ISIS Could Rise Again
Benjamin Bahney, Patrick B. Johnston @J0HNST0N
Dec 15, 2017
Foreign Affairs
ISIS has a tried-and-true playbook for bringing itself back from near death. Just a few years ago, it managed to resurrect itself after apparent defeat. And the history of that resurrection should serve as a warning of what may be coming now.
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Terrorism Financing
q&a
Oil, Extortion Still Paying Off for ISIS
Oct 27, 2017
The Cipher Brief
ISIS's oil revenues declined from a peak of $40 million per month in 2015 to $4 million per month as of early October 2017. Despite the massive reduction, it's still a substantial amount of money for a group whose expenditures decrease with the size of the population and territory it controls and decreased recruitment.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
How ISIS Is Transforming
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Sep 25, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The campaign to counter ISIS has made significant progress, but predictions of the group's demise are premature. It is transitioning from an insurgent organization with a fixed headquarters to a clandestine terrorist network dispersed throughout the globe.
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Political Reform Movements
q&a
The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson
Aug 23, 2017
It's too early to say whether the Arab Spring will turn out to be a success or not. The Arab Spring was about people deciding what they did not want and rising up against it, but they hadn't worked out what they did want. Many of them still have hope.
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Nation Building
commentary
Islamic State 2.0
Seth G. Jones
Aug 10, 2017
The Wall Street Journal
Many of Iraq's Sunnis are frustrated with the slow pace of reconstruction and a Baghdad government they consider too friendly to Iran. The U.S. needs to shift from supporting military operations in cities such as Mosul to helping the Iraqi government better address political grievances. Failure risks sowing the seeds of ISIS's resurgence.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Moving Beyond Mosul
Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Jul 18, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
The Islamic State group has been defeated in Mosul. But this military routing isn't enough to ensure lasting stability, either in Mosul or in Iraq more broadly. What comes next will require careful planning, diplomacy, implementation, and coordination.
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Counterterrorism
blog
Vickers, Crocker, Bergen, and Mudd Headline RAND ISIS Conference
Jul 6, 2017
Panelists at a RAND conference on ISIS agreed that efforts to protect the U.S. homeland and conduct campaigns to dismantle extremist groups have had success. But many long-term challenges to the broader world order remain that will require strategic patience.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 22, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Islamic State's Disposable Army
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 20, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. The group targets malcontents and the most suggestible, knowing they are desperate to belong to something and willing to die for it.
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Syria
commentary
When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 16, 2017
Defense One
The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State
Natasha Lander, Kimberly Jackson
Jun 5, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Despite substantial policy and military focus, U.S. attempts to stop the Islamic State group have met with only varying degrees of success. A patient, long-term U.S. investment in governance—including a renewed commitment to addressing the root causes of instability in the Middle East—is needed in Iraq and Syria.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
What Happens After ISIS Goes Underground
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Chad C. Serena
May 30, 2017
The National Interest
As the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria suffers defeats on the battlefield, it is expanding its cyber presence to continue to encourage attacks abroad. The more the group relies on cyberspace, the more likely it will expose important segments of its organization to detection and disruption.
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Iraq

Expanding the ISIS Brand

If We Don't Get the Peace Right, Iraq Will Slide Back into the Morass

Trump's First State of the Union: Insights from RAND

What Life Under ISIS Looked Like from Space

ISIS Could Rise Again

Oil, Extortion Still Paying Off for ISIS

How ISIS Is Transforming

The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson

Islamic State 2.0

Moving Beyond Mosul

Vickers, Crocker, Bergen, and Mudd Headline RAND ISIS Conference

Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?

The Islamic State's Disposable Army

When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?

Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State

What Happens After ISIS Goes Underground

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