Iraq

Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Competition in Iraq
Ben Connable, James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 5, 2020
Rudaw
Tensions between the United States and Iran reached a boiling point in January 2020, when Iranian-backed forces attacked U.S. military and diplomatic facilities on Iraqi soil, and the United States retaliated. Policymakers and experts again asked: Why are we in Iraq? What would happen if we left, and why would it matter?
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Iran
commentary
Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence
Jordan R. Reimer @Jordan_R_Reimer
Jan 17, 2020
The World Post
Last year, Iran faced protests at home as well as in Iraq and Lebanon, where thousands rallied against Tehran's regional hegemony. But with its recent machinations and the fallout over the killing of Soleimani, Iran has succeeded in changing the regional conversation.
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Iran
blog
Iran, Mental Health and Jail, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 10, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on Iran and Iraq following the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, supporting those experiencing mental illness in jails, Russia's hostile measures, and more.
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Iran
commentary
How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?
Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ariane M. Tabatabai
Jan 7, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.
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Iraq
commentary
Baghdad Siege Wasn't Benghazi, and Never Will Be
Raphael S. Cohen
Jan 6, 2020
Fox News Channel
Given the heightened tension between the United States and Iran and the ongoing instability in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad may very well be attacked again. If such an attack were to be successful, it would be more akin to the fall of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon than the U.S. mission in Benghazi.
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Iraq
commentary
Iraq's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops Is Iran's True Victory
Ben Connable
Jan 6, 2020
Los Angeles Times
If American soldiers are ejected from Iraq, the consequences may be far-reaching and damaging to U.S. strategic interests. What options remain to reset the relationship between Washington and Baghdad?
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Iran
commentary
All-Out U.S.-Iran War Is Unlikely. But Low-Level War Expected to Continue
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 6, 2020
Fox News Channel
Iranian retaliation for Soleimani's killing and counter-retaliation by the United States seem likely. But Tehran and Washington have good reasons to inflict limited pain without engaging in a full-scale war.
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Iraq
commentary
Can Iraq Evict U.S. Forces?
Stacie L. Pettyjohn @StaciePettyjohn
Jan 6, 2020
The Washington Post
The Iraqi parliament voted to expel U.S. troops from Iraq. This vote was nonbinding, and the Iraqi caretaker government cannot pass laws, but it does indicate that a majority in parliament wants U.S. forces to leave.
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Iran
blog
Iranian Commander Soleimani Killed: RAND Experts React
Jan 3, 2020
The White House has confirmed that a U.S. airstrike authorized by President Trump killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani just outside the Baghdad airport in Iraq. We've rounded up how RAND researchers reacted to the news.
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Iraq
commentary
Iraq at the Crossroads
Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100
Dec 18, 2019
Fox News Channel
The protests gripping Iraq pose an extraordinary challenge to Baghdad's political leadership, which must move the country ahead or step aside. Unless it finds the will to compromise for the common good, the governing class could risk thrusting the country into civil war.
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Medicare
blog
Medicare, Climate Change, 'Superbugs': RAND Weekly Recap
Nov 22, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on opening Medicare to Americans at age 50, how to assess climate change plans, antibiotic-resistant superbugs, and more.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
The Arab Spring in the Upside-Down
Jordan R. Reimer @Jordan_R_Reimer
Nov 21, 2019
The World Post
Where the original Arab Spring protests removed authoritarian leaders, the current demonstrators in Iraq and Lebanon are trying to topple popularly elected governments. This could have dramatic implications for the future of representative democracy in the Middle East.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Don't Overestimate the Power of Iraqi Protests
Jeffrey Martini, Ariane M. Tabatabai
Nov 14, 2019
Foreign Policy
As protests in Iraq grow, a “good news” narrative seems to be developing that they are a significant blow to Iranian influence. But the bigger story is not who is up and who is down between Washington and Tehran; it is that yet another Arab public has taken to the streets demanding change.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
How the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Provides a Boost to ISIS
Colin P. Clarke
Oct 21, 2019
Fox News Channel
President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria could provide the ISIS terrorist group with the time and space to regrow its organization and extend its networks throughout the Middle East. The longer-term strategic effects of the decision could reverberate in the region for years to come.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey Martini
Oct 21, 2019
Fox News
Without an orderly process for its national security decisions, the Trump administration has defaulted to the worst option regarding Syria. The sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces has left an opening for Russia to exploit. It also left the Kurds, a U.S. partner, to fend off a Turkish assault.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Indecision in Washington Compounded the Kurds' Dilemma
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey Martini
Oct 18, 2019
The Hill
Core qualities of statesmanship and statecraft have been notably lacking in charting the U.S. administration's Syria end game. This has compounded the unavoidable costs of withdrawal with charges of betrayal and a retreat under fire.
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Quoted

The failure of the jihadists can be judged a victory—albeit a costly one—over an organized effort to instigate violence in the United States. The country, however, has not exhausted its inventory of disaffected young men (and women) who may, in the future, embrace jihadism or other extremist ideologies on offer to convey their discontent.

Brian Michael Jenkins

Senior Adviser to the RAND President

Source: The Hill

Beijing's rising assertiveness against Hong Kong, Taiwan, and counter claimants in the East and South China Seas, and now even against India along the Himalayas, has resulted in unprecedented agreement across the Indo-Pacific and beyond that China's muscular approach is an unwelcome development in the region.

Derek Grossman

Senior Defense Analyst

Source: Nikkei Asian Review

The Role of Allies and Partners in U.S. Military Strategy and Operations

Hedgemony: A Game of Strategic Choices

Georgia: From COVID-19 to a Critical Test of Democracy

The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper Visits RAND

The Policy Currents Podcast

Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Planning for the Rising Costs of Dementia

Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research

Iraq

Competition in Iraq

Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence

Iran, Mental Health and Jail, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap

How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?

Baghdad Siege Wasn't Benghazi, and Never Will Be

Iraq's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops Is Iran's True Victory

All-Out U.S.-Iran War Is Unlikely. But Low-Level War Expected to Continue

Can Iraq Evict U.S. Forces?

Iranian Commander Soleimani Killed: RAND Experts React

Iraq at the Crossroads

Medicare, Climate Change, 'Superbugs': RAND Weekly Recap

The Arab Spring in the Upside-Down

Don't Overestimate the Power of Iraqi Protests

How the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Provides a Boost to ISIS

The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand

Indecision in Washington Compounded the Kurds' Dilemma

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