Skip to page content

Law of the Sea

commentary

The Philippines' and Vietnam's South China Sea Strategies Have Failed
There is no silver bullet to resolving China's rising assertiveness throughout the South China Sea. But what is obvious at this point is that neither transparency as with the Philippines, nor opacity as with Vietnam, is working.
Jul 15, 2024

commentary

How to Respond to China's Tactics in the South China Sea
China has the Philippines in an ever-tightening stranglehold that is increasingly compromising the latter's sovereignty and territorial integrity at sea. If international law is to be upheld and borders are to remain inviolable, the United States should do more to help the Philippines.
Jun 3, 2024
commentary

Persistent Gray Zone Aggression in the South China Sea Calls for Increased Coordination in Rule of Law
By not providing consistent leadership on priority issues, and by allowing China to assert hegemony, the United States is losing its strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific. Establishing a Combined Maritime Forces focused on law enforcement as a soft power approach would provide a cohesive structure, improved partnerships, and a clear way to push back against Chinese gray-zone tactics and overt aggression.
Apr 16, 2024
commentary

IUU Fishing: A Maritime Security Threat Requiring Unique Solutions
Fish depreciate, have tighter profit margins than drugs, and have a consumer base that can impact demand. Using the weak points in illegal, unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing business models to decrease profitability won't solve IUU fishing worldwide, but it can decrease IUU fishing.
Feb 8, 2024
commentary

China Doesn't Get It
Beijing likely believes it is in its interest to signal strength and show no intention of conceding on its claims or positions. But that does not mean that will work to further China's interests. In fact, the opposite is true, given that China's behavior is backfiring in spectacular fashion.
Oct 10, 2023
commentary

With ASEAN Paralyzed, Southeast Asia Seeks New Security Ties
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations tirelessly proclaims its centrality to the region, but its inability to develop a coherent response to Chinese aggression or the crisis in Myanmar has effectively killed that claim. ASEAN members will inevitably continue to seek out alternative paths.
Sep 18, 2023
commentary

Is Seabed Mining an Opportunity to Break China's Stranglehold on Critical Minerals Supply Chains?
China dominates global supply chains for nearly all critical mineral resources, including the rare earths that power decarbonization technologies. Seabed mining may be a way to diversify critical minerals supply chains and break China's stranglehold on supplies of some of the world's most important natural resources.
Nov 21, 2022
commentary

A United Strategy Could Reap Rewards for the United Kingdom in the High North
The multifaceted nature of Arctic policies, stretching from climate security and scientific cooperation to economic development and conflict mitigation, may require a whole-of-government approach from the United Kingdom. Such an approach could be necessary for the United Kingdom to appear a credible partner to Arctic countries and other third parties.
Feb 2, 2022
essay

Manipulating the Climate: What Are the Geopolitical Risks?
Geoengineering technologies that could block the sun's rays or siphon huge amounts of carbon from the air are not that far out of reach. Yet the international community has not established the kinds of guardrails you might expect for potentially world-changing technologies.
Dec 29, 2021
commentary

Don't Be Fooled by China's Mask Diplomacy
China has provided coronavirus-related aid to hundreds of countries. This appears to be an effort to make the world forget its role in the COVID-19 crisis, and to take advantage of its neighbors' current distraction.
May 5, 2020
commentary

Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea
Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.
May 4, 2020
commentary

A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us
China's armed fishing militia plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Why did Beijing create a maritime militia to begin with and how has it evolved over time? What does this history suggest about its future?
Apr 6, 2020
commentary

Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?
China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?
Jan 16, 2020
commentary

Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea
With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”
Nov 15, 2019
commentary

Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea
What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.
Aug 19, 2019
commentary

Time to Speak Up About the South China Sea
Some leaders in Southeast Asia may fear that new or enhanced postures in the South China Sea could antagonize China. But directly calling out China's breaks from the status quo or intimidation tactics may not necessarily put these countries at risk of Chinese countermeasures.
Mar 20, 2019
commentary

How Not to Compete in the Arctic
The Arctic defies simplistic views of geopolitical friends and foes. The United States and its allies do not necessarily agree on key issues, while U.S. strategic competitors might find common ground with America. The United States could fine-tune its defense policy tools in the Arctic to ensure that its actions do not hamper relations with allies and shore up the position of adversaries.
Feb 27, 2019
commentary

The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China—and Now's the Time to Do It
Even in its resurrected form, the Quad could be in danger of failing to achieve its mission. The Quad might consider getting its house in order by extending dialogue partnerships to ASEAN maritime counterclaimant states.
Oct 22, 2018
commentary

Assessing Recent Developments in Indonesian Maritime Security
Despite a daunting set of maritime challenges, Indonesia has placed renewed emphasis on maritime security governance. While the programs in place may take decades to bear fruit, Indonesia is on the path to securing the waterways and infrastructure so key to its overall economic development.
Oct 12, 2018
commentary

Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea
Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.
May 11, 2018
commentary

China Welcomes Its Newest Armed Force: The Coast Guard
China's recent move to transfer responsibility for the China Coast Guard to the People's Armed Police will have major symbolic implications for China's presence in disputed waters. It can no longer claim its presence in the South China Sea is purely civilian in nature.
Apr 4, 2018
commentary

Vietnam's Remarkable Month of Balancing Against China in the South China Sea
Vietnam in March very publicly engaged in a string of activities to strengthen deterrence against China in the South China Sea. But Hanoi's push to deepen external defense ties with states that can help its cause will not necessarily translate into greater risk-taking in the region.
Mar 26, 2018
commentary

What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?
The shift in U.S. climate policy away from greenhouse gas reduction is significant for the Arctic, which is experiencing global warming at an accelerated rate. And a recent executive order will pave the way for expanded oil and gas drilling. How will these changes shape the Arctic in years to come?
May 25, 2017
commentary

The Era of Coast Guards in the Asia-Pacific Is Upon Us
Coast guards, not navies, are the new asset of choice in East and Southeast Asia to assert sovereignty over disputed waters. China has been expanding its coast guard fleet and many states, like Vietnam and the Philippines, lack the funds to match it.
Mar 8, 2017
commentary

China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now
China has probably tolerated Vietnam's South China Sea construction activities because it feels confident in its military position in the region. Chinese leaders might change their stance if they believe Vietnam is trying to enlist the support of the U.S. or other partners to settle bilateral disputes.
Mar 3, 2017
commentary

The New 'Normal' in the East China Sea
China and Japan are engaged in a long-term test of wills over disputed waters and territory in the East China Sea. The Japanese government has acknowledged the challenge it faces and has begun to invest in infrastructure and personnel projects to address it.
Feb 27, 2017
commentary

History and Current Developments Regarding Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration
As Asia-Pacific countries develop policies to regulate maritime zones of jurisdiction, the importance of coast guards as instruments of state policy has been growing. Taiwan's Coast Guard is an increasingly effective force.
Feb 15, 2017
commentary

South Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Chinese Fishing, with Violent Results
In the Yellow Sea and elsewhere, Chinese fishermen have shown an increasing willingness to challenge attempts by coast guards to enforce fishing laws. Earlier this week, after repeated warnings, the Korea Coast Guard opened fire on a Chinese vessel fishing illegally in Korean waters.
Nov 4, 2016
commentary

China's Actions Are Causing U.S. 'Militarization' of the Pacific
Beijing's aggression in the Asia-Pacific is threatening key U.S. allies, causing America to respond. Any change in U.S. policy must be based on changes in Chinese behavior.
Nov 3, 2016
commentary

The Crucial South China Sea Ruling No One Is Talking About
The PCA found in July that China's coast guard had breached several UNCLOS articles governing safety and navigation at sea. Hopefully, this will help build a legal case that abiding by basic maritime safety principles is in the interest of all countries, including China.
Sep 16, 2016
commentary

China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea
Since the PCA tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines' case on July 12, invalidating many of China's claims in the South China Sea, Beijing has sought to demonstrate its military strength in the region. The PLAAF's H-6K has played a key role.
Aug 2, 2016
commentary

Judgment on the South China Sea: What's Next?
On July 12, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines' claims to maritime entitlements in the South China Sea. How China reacts could have far-reaching consequences for all nations that depend on a peaceful and integrated Southeast Asia.
Jul 22, 2016
commentary

Indonesia-China Tensions in the Natuna Sea: Evidence of Naval Efficacy Over Coast Guards?
The notion that Southeast Asian countries should employ coast guards instead of navies to enforce maritime laws had been gaining currency. But many of the coast guard fleets lack sufficient capacity to deal with the threats along their coast and in disputed waters in the South China Sea.
Jul 5, 2016
commentary

The Day After: The Fallout from the Philippines Arbitration Case Against China
What compels compliance with rulings based on international law? Whether or not China will pay a political price for ignoring a U.N. Law of the Sea Convention ruling will to a large degree be determined by how forceful other states respond in the aftermath of court action.
Jun 30, 2016
commentary

South China Sea Spat a Symptom of U.S.-China Jockeying for Advantage
A spate of high-profile diplomatic feuds and military actions related to the South China Sea has raised concern about the direction of U.S.-China relations. Neither country is well positioned politically or economically to engage in a long-term, antagonistic relationship, let alone a major conflict.
Jun 27, 2016
commentary

The Importance of Sunnylands for U.S.-ASEAN Relations
The first ever Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit held on U.S. soil took place earlier this month. Its success should be measured by the fact that the U.S. prioritized relations with the region enough to host its first summit. It should be regarded as the beginning of a new era in U.S.-ASEAN relations.
Feb 24, 2016
commentary

Obama Doubles Down on Maritime Capacity Building in Southeast Asia
By contributing to coast guard capacity building by donating ships and funding, the United States has found an important and politically viable avenue to bolster maritme security to partners and allies in Southeast Asia.
Dec 15, 2015
commentary

How Will China Respond to Future U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations?
On October 27, the USS Lassen carried out the first freedom of navigation patrol to challenge China's territorial claims in the South China Sea. In assessing China's potential response to follow-on operations, the extremes of either complete inaction or a military attack can be ruled out.
Oct 29, 2015
commentary

China's Airfield Construction at Fiery Cross Reef in Context: Catch-Up or Coercion?
Even if China really sees itself as undertaking legitimate activities to protect its rightful interests, it is not surprising that its rival claimants, as well as the United States and other countries in the region, see Beijing's island building activities as efforts to improve China's abilities to bully its neighbors.
Aug 11, 2015
commentary

China's Island-Building Stirs Fears, but Creates Openings for U.S.
News of proposed Navy patrols nearby disputed islands claimed by China suggests that the United States is toughening its response to Beijing's assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea.
May 18, 2015
commentary

Crimea, Climate Change, and U.S.-Russian Relations: A Perfect Storm
Russia possesses the world's most Arctic shoreline, water, and operating resources. But the United States is also an Arctic nation, even if much of the American public tends to under-appreciate this special status.
May 6, 2014
commentary

How to Avert a Sea Catastrophe with China
The United States should propose and pursue an East Asian maritime partnership, inviting to join all states that share its interest in assured access and passage, writes David Gompert.
May 9, 2013
commentary

Will China's Nationalism Come Back to Bite Leaders?
It is possible that at some point, anti-Japan protests could slip beyond the regime's control, and Party leaders worry that mishandling such tensions could affect the regime's legitimacy—and ultimately erode its grip on power, writes Scott Harold.
Sep 5, 2012
commentary

Odd Man Out at Sea
The United States has yet to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. As a result, the U.S., the world's leading maritime power, is at a military and economic disadvantage, write Thad W. Allen, Richard L. Armitage, and John J. Hamre.
Apr 25, 2011
commentary

Industry Insights: What's So Hard About Stopping Piracy?
Containing persistent maritime disorder might be more fruitful and could lay the foundations for a successful transition to better use of the sea once the societal factors—an even longer term problem—have been resolved, writes Laurence Smallman.
Apr 11, 2011
commentary

Kowtowing to Pirates' Ransoms Fuels Maritime Piracy
Instead of fanning piracy, international businesses need to heed policy. Ransoms in the short term can only lead to more problems in the long term, writes Laurence Smallman.
Apr 11, 2011
commentary

Piracy Still Threatens the Freedom of the Seas
As recent events off the Horn of Africa have demonstrated, armed violence at sea is emerging as a growing threat.... Piracy, in particular, threatens the freedom of the seas, increases the cost of international business, endangers political security through corruption, and could trigger a major environmental disaster, write Peter Chalk, Laurence Smallman.
Apr 3, 2009

Quoted

Mandatory evacuation orders are issued when disasters have potentially life-threatening impacts. Disaster after disaster, orders resulted in evacuations that have saved untold lives. Milton is rapidly intensifying and expected to be one of the largest hurricanes on record when it hits the United States. Staying in place could have severe, life-threatening consequences.

Aaron Clark-Ginsberg

Behavioral/Social Scientist
Source: rand.org
The mechanisms behind the apparent adverse effects of climate change on human health are not entirely understood. However, the need for pre-planning for these events to prevent poor health outcomes is clear. Especially among the most vulnerable populations, it is critical to develop and implement mitigating strategies.

Mahshid Abir

Senior Physician Policy Researcher, Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Source: rand.org