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Libya

Libya
commentary
Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?
Nathan Vest
Mar 27, 2019
RealClearWorld
The Libyan Civil War has largely been contained to pockets of violence. Prolonged battles decimated cities such as Benghazi, Derna, and Sirte, but the majority of the country has been spared large-scale destruction. However, that could change soon.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Migrants
commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Amanda Kadlec, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Sep 25, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
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Libya
commentary
How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further
Amanda Kadlec
Jul 7, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations
Hans Binnendijk, David C. Gompert
May 2, 2017
The National Interest
Steps are needed to fill the vacuum left as the caliphate collapses, lest forces on the ground turn on each other to gain control. The answer is for NATO to act under U.S. leadership. The alternative is either chaos or Iran, backed by Russia, filling the void.
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Migrants
essay
Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know
May 2, 2017
The countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea are facing unprecedented stress. A former lieutenant with the Italian Navy is now a RAND researcher, working to help others appreciate the scope of the crisis.
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Russia
commentary
What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War
Christopher S. Chivvis, Amanda Kadlec
Mar 26, 2017
Fortune
Indications that Russia could intervene militarily in Libya's civil war are growing. If it does, the Trump White House will face a tangle of unpleasant choices with far-reaching consequences.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
All Eyes on Sirte: Beating the Islamic State, but Losing Libya
Amanda Kadlec
Jun 23, 2016
War on the Rocks
At a time when the U.N.-sponsored Government of National Accord could be working to unite Libya's armed groups and promote political stability, it has instead become entwined in the race for Sirte.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 11, 2016
Foreign Policy
If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.
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Tunisia
blog
Tunisia's Role in Fight Against Terrorism Discussed at RAND Conference
Mar 30, 2016
The fight against terrorism in Tunisia is a shared priority and responsibility with the U.S. and Europe but will also depend greatly on solving the security issues in neighboring Libya, according to participants at a March 23 conference at RAND.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Use Force to Forge Peace in Libya
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 17, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Five years after the uprising against Qaddafi and the civil war that followed, Libya is now home to the second-largest and fastest-growing Islamic State group affiliate outside Iraq and Syria. The U.S. and its allies need to step in to help restore Libyan sovereignty.
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Libya
commentary
The Three Challenges of Countering ISIS in Libya
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 5, 2016
The Arab Weekly
ISIS's expansion in Libya is a threat to the security of Libyans, to the region, and to Europe. U.S. and European cooperation to counter ISIS is essential and Libya is unlikely to ever be peaceful without outside military support.
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Threat Assessment
commentary
Benghazi: Questions Unasked and Opportunities Missed
Radha Iyengar Plumb
Oct 22, 2015
War on the Rocks
Instead of asking whether a video precipitated the attack or whether Ambassador Stevens should have been in Benghazi on that fateful night, the right question to ask is under what conditions the United States should have a diplomatic presence in high-risk areas.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Algeria: The Bastion of North Africa
Christopher S. Chivvis, Amanda Kadlec
Aug 11, 2015
The National Interest
Algeria could be a key regional partner for the United States and France in security and counterterrorism efforts against Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. It has a clear interest in quelling the threat posed by regional jihadists and it has local knowledge that could be helpful to U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
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Migrants
q&a
How to Solve the Mediterranean's Migrant Crisis
Giacomo Persi Paoli
May 28, 2015
The RAND Blog
Destroying smugglers' vessels could contribute to reducing illegal migration and impact the business model that makes smuggling so profitable. But it won't stop smuggling altogether.
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