Libya

Air Defense

commentary
Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems
External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.
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Jul 2, 2020
John V. Parachini @JohnParachini, Peter A. Wilson

Russia

commentary
Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared
Russia is seeking more access and freedom of movement in the Mediterranean region, and is bolstering its military footprint to achieve this objective. The United States and NATO could respond by developing a more robust southern strategy, with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively.
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Jun 30, 2020
Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh, et al.
Libya

commentary
Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?
The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?
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Jun 2, 2020
Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke
Libya

commentary
Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?
Weapons proliferation has been a security concern for Libya and its neighbors since the revolution of 2011. If foreign arms transfers into Libya aren't reduced, the country's security situation will continue to deteriorate, giving militant groups a chance to increase their lethality and further destabilize the region.
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Dec 13, 2019
Nathan Vest
Libya

commentary
Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?
The Libyan Civil War has largely been contained to pockets of violence. Prolonged battles decimated cities such as Benghazi, Derna, and Sirte, but the majority of the country has been spared large-scale destruction. However, that could change soon.
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Mar 27, 2019
Nathan Vest
International Diplomacy

commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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Jun 1, 2018
Karl P. Mueller
Security Cooperation

commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Feb 19, 2018
Colin P. Clarke
Migrants

commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
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Sep 25, 2017
Amanda Kadlec, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Libya

commentary
How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further
Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.
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Jul 7, 2017
Amanda Kadlec
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

commentary
NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations
Steps are needed to fill the vacuum left as the caliphate collapses, lest forces on the ground turn on each other to gain control. The answer is for NATO to act under U.S. leadership. The alternative is either chaos or Iran, backed by Russia, filling the void.
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May 2, 2017
Hans Binnendijk, David C. Gompert
Migrants

essay
Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know
The countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea are facing unprecedented stress. A former lieutenant with the Italian Navy is now a RAND researcher, working to help others appreciate the scope of the crisis.
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May 2, 2017
Russia

commentary
What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War
Indications that Russia could intervene militarily in Libya's civil war are growing. If it does, the Trump White House will face a tangle of unpleasant choices with far-reaching consequences.
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Mar 26, 2017
Christopher S. Chivvis, Amanda Kadlec
The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

commentary
All Eyes on Sirte: Beating the Islamic State, but Losing Libya
At a time when the U.N.-sponsored Government of National Accord could be working to unite Libya's armed groups and promote political stability, it has instead become entwined in the race for Sirte.
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Jun 23, 2016
Amanda Kadlec
The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

commentary
In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...
If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.
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May 11, 2016
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Colin P. Clarke
Tunisia

blog
Tunisia's Role in Fight Against Terrorism Discussed at RAND Conference
The fight against terrorism in Tunisia is a shared priority and responsibility with the U.S. and Europe but will also depend greatly on solving the security issues in neighboring Libya, according to participants at a March 23 conference at RAND.
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Mar 30, 2016
Security Cooperation

commentary
Use Force to Forge Peace in Libya
Five years after the uprising against Qaddafi and the civil war that followed, Libya is now home to the second-largest and fastest-growing Islamic State group affiliate outside Iraq and Syria. The U.S. and its allies need to step in to help restore Libyan sovereignty.
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Feb 17, 2016
Christopher S. Chivvis

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Libya

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems

Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared

Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?

Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya

How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further

NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations

Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know

What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War

All Eyes on Sirte: Beating the Islamic State, but Losing Libya

In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...

Tunisia's Role in Fight Against Terrorism Discussed at RAND Conference

Use Force to Forge Peace in Libya

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