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Libya

International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Migrants
commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Amanda Kadlec @alidraak, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Sep 25, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
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Libya
commentary
How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further
Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Jul 7, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations
Hans Binnendijk, David C. Gompert
May 2, 2017
The National Interest
Steps are needed to fill the vacuum left as the caliphate collapses, lest forces on the ground turn on each other to gain control. The answer is for NATO to act under U.S. leadership. The alternative is either chaos or Iran, backed by Russia, filling the void.
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Migrants
essay
Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know
May 2, 2017
The countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea are facing unprecedented stress. A former lieutenant with the Italian Navy is now a RAND researcher, working to help others appreciate the scope of the crisis.
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Russia
commentary
What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War
Christopher S. Chivvis, Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Mar 26, 2017
Fortune
Indications that Russia could intervene militarily in Libya's civil war are growing. If it does, the Trump White House will face a tangle of unpleasant choices with far-reaching consequences.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
All Eyes on Sirte: Beating the Islamic State, but Losing Libya
Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Jun 23, 2016
War on the Rocks
At a time when the U.N.-sponsored Government of National Accord could be working to unite Libya's armed groups and promote political stability, it has instead become entwined in the race for Sirte.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 11, 2016
Foreign Policy
If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.
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Tunisia
blog
Tunisia's Role in Fight Against Terrorism Discussed at RAND Conference
Mar 30, 2016
The fight against terrorism in Tunisia is a shared priority and responsibility with the U.S. and Europe but will also depend greatly on solving the security issues in neighboring Libya, according to participants at a March 23 conference at RAND.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Use Force to Forge Peace in Libya
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 17, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Five years after the uprising against Qaddafi and the civil war that followed, Libya is now home to the second-largest and fastest-growing Islamic State group affiliate outside Iraq and Syria. The U.S. and its allies need to step in to help restore Libyan sovereignty.
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Libya
commentary
The Three Challenges of Countering ISIS in Libya
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 5, 2016
The Arab Weekly
ISIS's expansion in Libya is a threat to the security of Libyans, to the region, and to Europe. U.S. and European cooperation to counter ISIS is essential and Libya is unlikely to ever be peaceful without outside military support.
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Threat Assessment
commentary
Benghazi: Questions Unasked and Opportunities Missed
Radha Iyengar @RadhaKIyengar
Oct 22, 2015
War on the Rocks
Instead of asking whether a video precipitated the attack or whether Ambassador Stevens should have been in Benghazi on that fateful night, the right question to ask is under what conditions the United States should have a diplomatic presence in high-risk areas.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Algeria: The Bastion of North Africa
Christopher S. Chivvis, Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Aug 11, 2015
The National Interest
Algeria could be a key regional partner for the United States and France in security and counterterrorism efforts against Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. It has a clear interest in quelling the threat posed by regional jihadists and it has local knowledge that could be helpful to U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
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Migrants
q&a
How to Solve the Mediterranean's Migrant Crisis
Giacomo Persi Paoli @GPersiPaoli
May 28, 2015
The RAND Blog
Destroying smugglers' vessels could contribute to reducing illegal migration and impact the business model that makes smuggling so profitable. But it won't stop smuggling altogether.
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Egypt
commentary
Seduced by a Strongman?
Jeffrey Martini
Apr 30, 2015
Foreign Affairs
It is not true that domestic politics can be quarantined from foreign policy. In fact, Egypt's domestic and foreign policies are becoming more entangled by the day. And that bleed-over should raise concerns.
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Migrants
commentary
What Does It Take to Rescue Migrants at Sea?
Giacomo Persi Paoli @GPersiPaoli
Apr 23, 2015
The RAND Blog
European Union leaders gathered today for an emergency summit to discuss a concerted response to the humanitarian disaster unfolding in the Mediterranean Sea. As a former officer serving aboard an Italian Navy warship deployed in Operation Mare Nostrum in November 2013, Giacomo Persi Paoli is well aware of the challenges.
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Libya
commentary
Somalia on the Mediterranean
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 19, 2015
Foreign Policy
Libya is as vulnerable to further inroads by ISIS now as Syria was a year ago. What can the United States and its allies do to stop the hemorrhaging? Many options have been debated, but none look very promising.
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Air Warfare
commentary
NATO's Campaign in Libya Offers Salient Lessons for the Air War Against ISIL
Karl P. Mueller
Nov 25, 2014
Defense One
The NATO air campaign that helped defeat Qaddafi's regime in Libya has received relatively little mention in public discussion of the ongoing air strikes against ISIS. But the campaign in Libya offers at least five lessons that deserve greater attention today.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Another Example of Obama's Light-Footprint Strategy
Seth G. Jones
Sep 17, 2014
Politico
President Obama's campaign against ISIS militants marks a notable strategic shift in the conduct of warfare against terrorists and insurgents. It eschews the use of overwhelming force and embraces a light-footprint strategy that relies on precision strikes from U.S. aircraft, clandestine ground units, and local allies.
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Iraq
commentary
Would U.S. Air Power Work in Iraq?
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 18, 2014
CNN
With the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) making significant gains over the past week, including advancing closer to Baghdad, U.S. President Barack Obama is reportedly considering whether to deploy U.S. air power to assist Iraq's armed forces. But what would such an intervention mean in practical terms? And how effective an option would it be?
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
NATO Needs a Southern Strategy
F. Stephen Larrabee, Peter A. Wilson
Feb 26, 2014
Epoch Times
If NATO wants to avoid strategic irrelevance, it needs to give increasing attention to the threats from the Middle East and North Africa region. A southern strategy should draw on recent experience, such as NATO's intervention in Libya and the successful operation in Mali.
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Libya
blog
Libya and the Limits of Liberal Intervention
Jan 9, 2014
A forthcoming book from RAND senior political scientist Christopher S. Chivvis recounts the story of how the United States and its European allies went to war against Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, why they won the war, and what the implications will be for NATO, Europe, and Libya.
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Libya
commentary
Libya Needs Outside Help to Avoid Perpetual War
Christopher S. Chivvis
Oct 11, 2013
Christian Science Monitor
If steps are not taken to get control of security, there is little hope for Libya's future. Qaddafi's fateful warning that Libya would become a “Somalia on the Mediterranean” without him could come true. The investment that NATO and its partners made in toppling Qaddafi would then be almost entirely wasted.
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Counterterrorism
blog
Do U.S. Raids in Libya, Somalia Signal a Shift in Terror Strategy?
Oct 10, 2013
The raids that the United States conducted over the weekend in Libya and Somalia could signal a new focus in Washington on capturing terrorist suspects and gathering intelligence rather than relying on drone strikes. RAND experts Linda Robinson, Angel Rabasa, and Seth Jones comment.
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Global Security
commentary
How to Keep Our Embassies Safe
William Young
Jun 12, 2013
CNN
The best way to safeguard U.S. diplomatic missions abroad is to think hard up front about the purpose of the mission and to constantly reassess it in light of changing conditions, writes William Young.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Libya Needs U.S. Help for Security
Christopher S. Chivvis
May 13, 2013
CNN
By adopting a laissez-faire policy toward security in Libya after the war, the United States and its allies who helped the Libyan rebels topple Gadhafi share in the responsibility for the country’s current predicament, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Military Tactics
commentary
Unlearning the Lessons of Iraq
Christopher S. Chivvis
Mar 14, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Trepidation about boots-on-the-ground engagement has unnecessarily forestalled even small-scale efforts to repair Libya's fractured security environment....Meanwhile, in Syria, the over-learned lessons of Iraq are taking an even more serious toll, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
NATO, US Must Shore Up Libya
Christopher S. Chivvis
Feb 15, 2013
Christian Science Monitor
A smaller-scale training mission to help the Libyan government build reliable forces that will answer to the country's elected leadership would do much to help the Libyan state get control over its own territory, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Mali
commentary
Foreign Intervention in Mali Is Libya in Reverse
Christopher S. Chivvis
Jan 25, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
France is in Mali not just to prop up a failing state in French Africa, but because Mali was becoming a magnet for jihadis from around the world and Paris rightly feared the country could become the next Afghanistan—only much closer to Europe, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
The Challenges of Libya's Post-Qadhafi Transition
Christopher S. Chivvis
Oct 26, 2012
U.S. News & World Report
Libya should remain in charge of its own post-conflict path, but it needs the help of external actors to succeed with its transition, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
Libya and the Future of Liberal Intervention
Christopher S. Chivvis
Oct 12, 2012
The RAND Blog and Survival
As a case of military intervention, Libya does not tell us much about how useful the lower-cost, lighter footprint adopted there can be under more challenging conditions, or when the objective is broader and more transformational, as was the case at the outset in Iraq and Afghanistan, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
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Terrorist Organizations
commentary
Libya's Downward Spiral
Christopher S. Chivvis
Sep 14, 2012
Foreign Policy
Libya is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan, let alone Somalia. It has much going for it that these post-conflict cases did not, including relatively unified citizens, wealth, a neighborhood comparatively conducive to stability, and a clear victory over the former regime, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Global Security
commentary
Violence in Libya Leaves Unanswered Questions
Christopher S. Chivvis
Sep 12, 2012
The RAND Blog
Qaddafi is gone, but if violence spreads, it could call into question the no-footprint post-conflict model that the United States and its allies chose after last year's intervention, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
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Nation Building
commentary
A Year After the Fall of Tripoli, Libya Still Fragile
Christopher S. Chivvis
Aug 23, 2012
CNN
The countries that helped topple Moammar Gadhafi a year ago have a special obligation to ensure the new Libyan government gets all the help it needs to respond to these new threats effectively, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Nation Building
commentary
Bringing Libya Under Control
Frederic Wehrey
Feb 25, 2012
NYTimes.com on February 24, 2012 and in International Herald Tribune
While NATO countries and allies like Jordan and Qatar have started to train and equip the security forces, there is more that outsiders can do to help, writes Frederic Wehrey.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Syria Is Trending Toward the Libya Model
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Feb 14, 2012
U.S. News & World Report, Debate Club
If the Syrian opposition clearly asks for American help, if the rest of the Arab world supports such a military intervention, and if America's European allies prove ready to join in—and indeed lead—such an effort, the United States should contribute those military assets which only it can provide, writes James Dobbins.
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Nation Building
commentary
The Year of the Arab Spring
Charles P. Ries
Dec 20, 2011
RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org
The Arab Spring demonstrated that leaderless revolutions are difficult to repress or co-opt. Unfortunately, it is also true that leaderless revolts find it difficult to make transition to authority, writes Charles Ries.
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Nation Building
commentary
An Open Door in Libya
Christopher S. Chivvis, Frederic Wehrey
Oct 20, 2011
CNN
The days and weeks after a victory like this are a golden hour that set in motion either a virtuous cycle of increasing security and economic growth, or a downward spiral into insecurity, factionalism and economic chaos, write Christopher S. Chivvis and Frederic Wehrey.
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Nation Building
commentary
Libyan Nation Building After Qaddafi
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Frederic Wehrey
Aug 23, 2011
Foreign Affairs
If Libya is to have a chance of replacing Qaddafi with something better, the United States, its allies, and the rest of the international community will need to pivot very quickly from the rather straightforward requirements of war fighting to taking seriously the complex and demanding tasks of peace building, write James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey.
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Libya
commentary
How Might bin Laden's Demise Affect Business?
Charles Wolf, Jr.
May 25, 2011
RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org
Given how markets are responding thus far, Osama Bin Laden's death is likely to have a modestly positive and buoyant effect on equity markets, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
A Recipe for Military Disaster: Mixing Idealism and Realism
Harold Brown
Apr 30, 2011
The Washington Post
In many cases, idealism and realism conflict, as evidenced by U.S. military interventions over the past four decades, writes Harold Brown.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Expect Regime Change in Libya, Yemen
Julie E. Taylor
Apr 25, 2011
CNN
The countries in a possible "second wave" of Arab revolutions have dim prospects for consolidated democracies. Other than tribes, Libya essentially has no civil society, and it has a long-isolated educated class. Yemen has civil society organizations but fewer well-educated individuals, writes Julie Taylor.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Time to Arm Libyan Rebels: Here's How
Angel Rabasa
Apr 13, 2011
Christian Science Monitor
The long-term objective of a train-and-equip program for the Libyan revolutionary government would be to create a professional military force in a post-Qaddafi Libya that could support democratic institutions free of extremist elements, writes Angel Rabasa.
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United Nations
commentary
The Allies in Libya: A New Paradigm for Intervention?
Robert E. Hunter
Apr 10, 2011
European Affairs
What has been happening in North Africa this year, in what seems to be the leading edge of a great wind of change sweeping the Arab world, will require the Europeans (along with the U.S. and others) to be deeply and durably engaged there — economically, politically and in humanitarian terms, writes Robert E. Hunter.
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United Kingdom
commentary
Obama's Calculated Gamble on Libya Strategy
F. Stephen Larrabee
Apr 4, 2011
CNN
Pushing the European allies, especially Britain and France, to take more responsibility in managing crises would reduce the costs and burdens on the United States while providing an incentive for the Europeans to take defense more seriously, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Libya
commentary
Arm the Libyan Rebels to Fight Gadhafi
Angel Rabasa
Mar 24, 2011
CNN
What the United States did in Bosnia might hold the key for an effective response to the crisis in Libya, writes Angel Rabasa.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
What Intervention Looks Like
Robert E. Hunter
Mar 16, 2011
Foreign Affairs
The question, then, is whether stopping the fighting—which could also require forcibly removing Qaddafi—is worth the price of deep military engagement and responsibility for Libya's postwar future, writes Robert E. Hunter.
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Libya
commentary
Can You Hear Libya Now?
Dan Gonzales @gonzadan, Sarah Harting
Mar 5, 2011
The New York Times
The U.S. and its allies could help Libyans communicate with the outside world by deploying cellphone base stations on aircraft or tethered balloons, write Dan Gonzales and Sarah Harting.
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Libya
commentary
Libya's Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi?
Frederic Wehrey
Feb 28, 2011
Foreign Affairs
The new, post-Qaddafi era is likely to be marked by the emergence of long-suppressed domestic groups jostling for supremacy in what is sure to be a chaotic political scene, writes Frederic Wehrey.
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