Low-Intensity Conflict

Russia
commentary
Has the War in Ukraine Damaged Russia's Gray Zone Capabilities?
Raphael S. Cohen
Jun 22, 2022
The National Interest
Russia's actions are to blame for the damage done to its gray zone capabilities, but it's the West's choice to see whether this respite represents a short-term aberration or presents opportunities for some long-term fixes.
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Refugees
blog
Helping Ukrainian Refugees, Truth Decay, Algorithmic Inequity: RAND Weekly Recap
Apr 1, 2022
This weekly recap focuses on how to help Ukrainian refugees, the link between cognitive processes and Truth Decay, tracking wastewater to understand the spread of COVID-19, and more.
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China
commentary
The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats
Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga
Jun 29, 2021
The Diplomat
Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.
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Russia
blog
Summit a Chance to Clarify U.S.-Russia Relations: RAND Call With Experts
Jun 10, 2021
RAND experts discuss possible topics of conversation and potential takeaways from the upcoming summit between the United States and Russia. The summit will be a chance to rebuild and review the countries' fraught relationship.
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Russia
commentary
Will Russia's Risk-Aversion Keep It Away from Ukraine?
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Apr 28, 2021
RealClearWorld
Russia could blunder in Ukraine as Soviet rulers did in Afghanistan. Unlike then, however, a new Russian thrust into Ukraine could lead to early, heavy casualties. This could quickly bring home to the Kremlin the political costs of any incursion.
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Summer Learning
blog
Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap
Apr 23, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
blog
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, COVID-19 Variants, Myanmar: RAND Weekly Recap
Feb 12, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, sexual assault and sexual harassment in the military, how couples can sleep better during the pandemic, and more.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jul 15, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.
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Military Technology
commentary
The Risks of Autonomous Weapons Systems for Crisis Stability and Conflict Escalation in Future U.S.-Russia Confrontations
Burgess Laird
Jun 3, 2020
Russia Matters
While autonomous weapons systems are still in their early development stages, it is worth the time of policymakers to carefully consider whether their putative operational advantages are worth the potential risks of instability and escalation they may raise.
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Libya
commentary
Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?
Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke
Jun 2, 2020
Defense One
The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why the United States Will Need a New Foreign Policy in 2020
Raphael S. Cohen
May 26, 2020
The Hill
Even before the pandemic, the United States faced a growing strategic predicament: U.S. challenges are mounting, and America's international commitments increasingly outstrip its means to fulfill them.
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Information Operations
commentary
Exposing Russian Information Operations Does Not Violate the First Amendment
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
May 11, 2020
The Hill
Russia's hostile information operations are continuous and extend to a broad range of domestic issues. First Amendment concerns are important, but they do not protect hostile information campaigns by foreign actors, nor are they a legal excuse for inaction by the United States.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory
Raphael S. Cohen
Jan 22, 2020
War on the Rocks
Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.
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Indonesia
commentary
Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 16, 2020
World Politics Review
China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?
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Iran
blog
Iran, Mental Health and Jail, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 10, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on Iran and Iraq following the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, supporting those experiencing mental illness in jails, Russia's hostile measures, and more.
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Iran
commentary
How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?
Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ariane M. Tabatabai
Jan 7, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.
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Vietnam
commentary
How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christopher Sharman
Dec 31, 2019
War on the Rocks
Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.
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China
commentary
What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Dec 30, 2019
South China Morning Post
While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.
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Warfare and Military Operations
commentary
Bad Idea: Assuming the Small Wars Era Is Over
Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans, Alexandra Stark
Dec 18, 2019
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The national security community doesn't need to deny the potential for future great power conflict—or neglect to prepare for it—in order to acknowledge the enduring reality of asymmetric threats. Containing, resolving, and even preventing smaller conflicts is essential to avoiding bigger ones.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Nov 15, 2019
The Diplomat
With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution
Daniel Egel, Eric Robinson @RobinsonEricD, Charles T. Cleveland, Christopher Oates
Oct 31, 2019
War on the Rocks
How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?
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Information Operations
commentary
What Translation Troubles Can Tell Us About Russian Information Warfare
Joe Cheravitch
Oct 4, 2019
Small Wars Journal
Moscow's form of information warfare targeting the West has attracted significant international attention since 2014, especially through its reinvigorated military intelligence branch. Nonetheless, little research has focused on these campaigns' apparent shortcomings. Most notable among operational errors are the confusing translation mistakes that undermine attempts at covert influence efforts.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 19, 2019
Maritime Issues
What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.
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China
commentary
Managing U.S. Military-to-Military Relations with China, a Strategic Competitor in an Era of Renewed Great Power Competition
Scott W. Harold
Mar 8, 2019
ChinaFile
The United States National Security Strategy describes a return of great power rivalry with China as the leading challenger, and the National Defense Strategy prioritizes strategic competition. What are the implications for U.S.-China military-to-military relations?
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Russia
commentary
Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe
Raphael S. Cohen, Andrew Radin @andrewmradin
Feb 26, 2019
War on the Rocks
They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one.
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commentary
What Does America's Political Polarization Mean for Competition with China?
Timothy R. Heath
Nov 9, 2018
The Hill
Political polarization in the United States potentially carries significant implications for America's strategic competition with China. Leaders in Washington will need to work to mitigate the effects of polarization and manage competition with China in a stable, effective manner.
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Information Operations
commentary
Political Warfare Is Back with a Vengeance
Raphael S. Cohen, Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100
Apr 13, 2018
The National Interest
The United States' principal adversaries are fighting and gaining ground by employing a host of tactics short of all-out war. This form of warfare, once called political warfare, is back with a vengeance, empowered by new tools and techniques.
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Gaza Strip
commentary
How Salafism's Rise Threatens Gaza
Colin P. Clarke
Oct 11, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The rise of hardline Salafism is a worrisome trend in Gaza, where Salafists could surpass Hamas as the most dangerous threat to other Palestinians and the state of Israel. Such a result could signal the sabotage of yet another chance for progress in one of the world's longest-running conflicts.
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Military Strategy
commentary
Managing Chaos in an Era of Great Power Competition
Austin Long, Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100, Seth G. Jones
Sep 5, 2017
War on the Rocks
As Washington policymakers seek a new strategic course, U.S. national security strategy should not neglect the importance of competition short of armed conflict. A U.S. strategy that incorporates this perspective from the beginning could manage chaos at a reasonable cost.
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Asymmetric Warfare
commentary
Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
Raphael S. Cohen
Aug 3, 2017
War on the Rocks
After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
essay
The Price of Peace
Jun 24, 2015
Groundbreaking analysis by a team of RAND economists and policy experts reveals how much Israelis and Palestinians stand to lose from the enduring conflict, and how much they could gain in peace.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
War or Peace? Putting a Price on the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries, C. Ross Anthony
Jun 9, 2015
Newsweek
Today, more than 90 percent of Israelis and Palestinians were born after 1948 and have known nothing other than some version of the impasse. Both sides could be better off with a stable two-state solution. Prolonging the impasse for another generation would have real costs.
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Global Security
commentary
Greater Disorder Does Not Imply Greater Insecurity
Ali Wyne
Jan 7, 2015
The American Interest
President Obama observed in June that the world is less violent than it has ever been. While his proposition may seem incongruous with the present crises across Eurasia, the evidence suggests that the world is indeed becoming more secure.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
The Foreign Policy Essay: The Limits of Small Footprints
Stephen Watts
Mar 31, 2014
Lawfare
The history of “small-footprint approaches” should be sobering. It suggests that such approaches are good at preventing allied governments from losing against rebels, but are not very good at actually winning wars.
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Asymmetric Warfare
blog
New RAND Report Updates, Expands Research on Successful Counterinsurgency Approaches
Sep 27, 2013
When a country is threatened by an insurgency, what efforts give its government the best chance of prevailing? A new update to a RAND 2010 study expands the data set of 30 insurgencies to 71 and compares all 71 of them begun and completed worldwide since World War II.
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