Low-Intensity Conflict

commentary

Has the War in Ukraine Damaged Russia's Gray Zone Capabilities?

Russia's actions are to blame for the damage done to its gray zone capabilities, but it's the West's choice to see whether this respite represents a short-term aberration or presents opportunities for some long-term fixes.

Raphael S. Cohen

blog

Helping Ukrainian Refugees, Truth Decay, Algorithmic Inequity: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to help Ukrainian refugees, the link between cognitive processes and Truth Decay, tracking wastewater to understand the spread of COVID-19, and more.

commentary

The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats

Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

blog

Summit a Chance to Clarify U.S.-Russia Relations: RAND Call With Experts

RAND experts discuss possible topics of conversation and potential takeaways from the upcoming summit between the United States and Russia. The summit will be a chance to rebuild and review the countries' fraught relationship.

commentary

Will Russia's Risk-Aversion Keep It Away from Ukraine?

Russia could blunder in Ukraine as Soviet rulers did in Afghanistan. Unlike then, however, a new Russian thrust into Ukraine could lead to early, heavy casualties. This could quickly bring home to the Kremlin the political costs of any incursion.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

blog

Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.

blog

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, COVID-19 Variants, Myanmar: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, sexual assault and sexual harassment in the military, how couples can sleep better during the pandemic, and more.

commentary

An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?

Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

commentary

The Risks of Autonomous Weapons Systems for Crisis Stability and Conflict Escalation in Future U.S.-Russia Confrontations

While autonomous weapons systems are still in their early development stages, it is worth the time of policymakers to carefully consider whether their putative operational advantages are worth the potential risks of instability and escalation they may raise.

Burgess Laird

commentary

Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?

Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Why the United States Will Need a New Foreign Policy in 2020

Even before the pandemic, the United States faced a growing strategic predicament: U.S. challenges are mounting, and America's international commitments increasingly outstrip its means to fulfill them.

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

Exposing Russian Information Operations Does Not Violate the First Amendment

Russia's hostile information operations are continuous and extend to a broad range of domestic issues. First Amendment concerns are important, but they do not protect hostile information campaigns by foreign actors, nor are they a legal excuse for inaction by the United States.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory

Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?

China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

blog

Iran, Mental Health and Jail, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Iran and Iraq following the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, supporting those experiencing mental illness in jails, Russia's hostile measures, and more.

commentary

How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?

Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.

Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ariane M. Tabatabai

commentary

How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers

Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christopher Sharman

commentary

What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020

While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Bad Idea: Assuming the Small Wars Era Is Over

The national security community doesn't need to deny the potential for future great power conflict—or neglect to prepare for it—in order to acknowledge the enduring reality of asymmetric threats. Containing, resolving, and even preventing smaller conflicts is essential to avoiding bigger ones.

Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans, Alexandra Stark

commentary

Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea

With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution

How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?

Daniel Egel, Eric Robinson @RobinsonEricD, et al.

commentary

What Translation Troubles Can Tell Us About Russian Information Warfare

Moscow's form of information warfare targeting the West has attracted significant international attention since 2014, especially through its reinvigorated military intelligence branch. Nonetheless, little research has focused on these campaigns' apparent shortcomings. Most notable among operational errors are the confusing translation mistakes that undermine attempts at covert influence efforts.

Joe Cheravitch

commentary

Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea

What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Managing U.S. Military-to-Military Relations with China, a Strategic Competitor in an Era of Renewed Great Power Competition

The United States National Security Strategy describes a return of great power rivalry with China as the leading challenger, and the National Defense Strategy prioritizes strategic competition. What are the implications for U.S.-China military-to-military relations?

Scott W. Harold

commentary

Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe

They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one.

Raphael S. Cohen, Andrew Radin @andrewmradin

commentary

What Does America's Political Polarization Mean for Competition with China?

Political polarization in the United States potentially carries significant implications for America's strategic competition with China. Leaders in Washington will need to work to mitigate the effects of polarization and manage competition with China in a stable, effective manner.

Timothy R. Heath

commentary

Political Warfare Is Back with a Vengeance

The United States' principal adversaries are fighting and gaining ground by employing a host of tactics short of all-out war. This form of warfare, once called political warfare, is back with a vengeance, empowered by new tools and techniques.

Raphael S. Cohen, Linda Robinson

commentary

How Salafism's Rise Threatens Gaza

The rise of hardline Salafism is a worrisome trend in Gaza, where Salafists could surpass Hamas as the most dangerous threat to other Palestinians and the state of Israel. Such a result could signal the sabotage of yet another chance for progress in one of the world's longest-running conflicts.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Managing Chaos in an Era of Great Power Competition

As Washington policymakers seek a new strategic course, U.S. national security strategy should not neglect the importance of competition short of armed conflict. A U.S. strategy that incorporates this perspective from the beginning could manage chaos at a reasonable cost.

Austin Long, Linda Robinson, et al.

commentary

Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza

After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza.

Raphael S. Cohen

essay

The Price of Peace

Groundbreaking analysis by a team of RAND economists and policy experts reveals how much Israelis and Palestinians stand to lose from the enduring conflict, and how much they could gain in peace.

commentary

War or Peace? Putting a Price on the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse

Today, more than 90 percent of Israelis and Palestinians were born after 1948 and have known nothing other than some version of the impasse. Both sides could be better off with a stable two-state solution. Prolonging the impasse for another generation would have real costs.

Charles P. Ries @charles_ries, C. Ross Anthony

commentary

Greater Disorder Does Not Imply Greater Insecurity

President Obama observed in June that the world is less violent than it has ever been. While his proposition may seem incongruous with the present crises across Eurasia, the evidence suggests that the world is indeed becoming more secure.

Ali Wyne

commentary

The Foreign Policy Essay: The Limits of Small Footprints

The history of “small-footprint approaches” should be sobering. It suggests that such approaches are good at preventing allied governments from losing against rebels, but are not very good at actually winning wars.

Stephen Watts

blog

New RAND Report Updates, Expands Research on Successful Counterinsurgency Approaches

When a country is threatened by an insurgency, what efforts give its government the best chance of prevailing? A new update to a RAND 2010 study expands the data set of 30 insurgencies to 71 and compares all 71 of them begun and completed worldwide since World War II.