Maghreb

commentary

Abraham Accords Offer Historic Opportunity to Spur Mideast Growth

The Abraham Accords have heralded a dramatic shift in the relationship between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world. While these accords represent a major political breakthrough, they also represent a possible new chapter in the region's development: away from conflict and toward a shared economic vision of prosperity.

Daniel Egel, Shira Efron, et al.

commentary

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems

External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.

John V. Parachini @JohnParachini, Peter A. Wilson

commentary

Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared

Russia is seeking more access and freedom of movement in the Mediterranean region, and is bolstering its military footprint to achieve this objective. The United States and NATO could respond by developing a more robust southern strategy, with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively.

Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh, et al.

commentary

Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?

Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?

Weapons proliferation has been a security concern for Libya and its neighbors since the revolution of 2011. If foreign arms transfers into Libya aren't reduced, the country's security situation will continue to deteriorate, giving militant groups a chance to increase their lethality and further destabilize the region.

Nathan Vest

commentary

African Dictators Have Been Losing Power—Some to Democratic Governments. Militaries Can Tip the Scales Toward Democracy

Africa's security forces most often make headlines when they commit atrocities, crack down on protesters, or seize power in coups. But Africa's troops can also contribute to democracy and peace when they lay down their arms or refuse orders to turn their guns against the people.

Nathaniel Allen, Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes

commentary

Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?

The Libyan Civil War has largely been contained to pockets of violence. Prolonged battles decimated cities such as Benghazi, Derna, and Sirte, but the majority of the country has been spared large-scale destruction. However, that could change soon.

Nathan Vest

commentary

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Karl P. Mueller

commentary

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya

Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.

Amanda Kadlec, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson

q&a

The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson

It's too early to say whether the Arab Spring will turn out to be a success or not. The Arab Spring was about people deciding what they did not want and rising up against it, but they hadn't worked out what they did want. Many of them still have hope.

commentary

How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further

Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.

Amanda Kadlec

commentary

The U.S.-France Dustup Over Counterterrorism in the Sahel

It's time for Paris and Washington to get together with the G5 nations of the Sahel and draft a strategy for achieving shared objectives. The French cannot do it alone or even with the support of the G5 nations. The U.S. would be penny wise but pound foolish to stay aloof or even just uphold the status quo.

Michael Shurkin

commentary

NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations

Steps are needed to fill the vacuum left as the caliphate collapses, lest forces on the ground turn on each other to gain control. The answer is for NATO to act under U.S. leadership. The alternative is either chaos or Iran, backed by Russia, filling the void.

Hans Binnendijk, David C. Gompert

essay

Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know

The countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea are facing unprecedented stress. A former lieutenant with the Italian Navy is now a RAND researcher, working to help others appreciate the scope of the crisis.