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Middle East

International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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U.S.-European Relations
commentary
Assessing Transatlantic Fallout After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal
James Hoobler
May 31, 2018
American Institute for Contemporary German Studies
The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has set off another round of reflection on the state and future of the transatlantic alliance. Though this dispute may not in itself lead to a full breach in the transatlantic relationship, it joins a growing list of sharp disagreements impacting U.S. alliances.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
Regime Appears Fragile as Iranians Turn Much of Their Ire Inward
Richard Charles Baffa @R_Baffa, Nathan Vest
May 21, 2018
The Hill
Economic hardship is fueling unrest in Iran. New sanctions stemming from the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal may exacerbate already difficult conditions. Now might be the time to exert maximum pressure on the regime in an effort to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table.
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Gaza Strip
commentary
Five Thoughts on Jerusalem, Gaza, and What's in Between
Shira Efron @ShiraEfron
May 15, 2018
The Hill
Dozens of people have been killed and over 2,000 injured in protests in the Gaza Strip along the border with Israel. Continued clashes are expected until the fundamental problems of the strip are solved, including the governance vacuum, the Palestinian Authority-Hamas rift, and the conflict with Israel.
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Russia
commentary
The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East
Ben Connable, Becca Wasser @Becca_Wasser
May 10, 2018
London School of Economics
The greatest limitation of Russia's Middle East strategy is that it is not Russia, but the Middle Eastern states themselves that determine the depth of their relations with Moscow. Just as Russia seeks to engage in the Middle East for its own benefit, these states also seek to use Russia to their advantage.
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U.S.-European Relations
commentary
The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye
May 10, 2018
The Hill
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The U.S. Is Out of the Iran Deal. What Now?
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
May 9, 2018
Reuters
Abandoning the nuclear agreement with Iran isolates the United States, reneges on an American commitment, adds to the risk of a trade war with U.S. allies and a hot war with Iran, and diminishes the prospects of an agreement to eliminate the North Korean threat.
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Syria
commentary
What Does Mission Accomplished in Syria Really Mean?
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Apr 30, 2018
United Press International
The use of chemicals cannot be allowed to become an acceptable form of warfare either in Syria or anywhere else. Mission accomplishment in Syria, just like in chemical weapon nonproliferation, will require far more than missile strikes alone.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Is America Ready for a Peace Deal in Afghanistan?
Laurel E. Miller, Stephen Watts
Apr 27, 2018
The National Interest
The Trump administration appears to be following its predecessor in imagining a political endgame in Afghanistan. It is focused on military efforts to try to turn the tide of the conflict, in hopes of negotiating from a stronger position. But if all sides continue to seek military advantage, negotiations will never commence.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Stabilization Is Essential to Accomplishing the Mission
Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100
Apr 24, 2018
The RAND Blog
There's good reason to hope that the forthcoming policy on stabilization in places like Iraq will get the United States to the right middle road. But this new effort will fall short if Congress doesn't maintain the necessary funding for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development.
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Refugees
commentary
Europe's Great Challenge: Integrating Syrian Refugees
Ernesto F. L. Amaral, Mahlet A. Woldetsadik, Gabriela Armenta
Apr 20, 2018
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Since March, 2011, close to 1 million Syrian refugees have requested asylum in European countries, with Germany being the primary destination. Social and economic policies to deal with the refugee crisis will require collaborative planning, monitoring, and assessment efforts to be successful.
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Chemical Terrorism
commentary
Arms Control Hostage to Skripal and Syria Attacks
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Apr 19, 2018
RealClearDefense
Two prominent poisoning assassination attempts and Kremlin denials of gas attacks by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad raise doubts about Moscow's commitment to the purposes of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Never has the future of negotiated arms control involving Russia been at greater risk.
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Chemical Weapons and Warfare
commentary
A Norm in Crisis: Implications of Persistent Chemical Weapons Use
Natasha Lander
Apr 18, 2018
RealClearDefense
The international community should consider serious options to hold perpetrators of chemical attacks accountable and stop further attacks. These are not easy choices. But the alternative is accepting that long-held norms are crumbling, and the world is sliding back to a time when inhumane tools of war were common.
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Turkey
commentary
Turkey's Double Standard: How Ankara's Actions Contradict Its Claims of Opposing the Islamic State
Ahmet S. Yayla, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 13, 2018
Foreign Policy
Turkey wants to take credit for the demise of the Islamic State, insisting that Turkey's actions in northern Syria have helped lay the groundwork for a sustainable peace. But the evidence clearly suggests otherwise.
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Syria
commentary
Conditioning American Withdrawal from Syria
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey Martini
Apr 9, 2018
Al-Monitor
U.S. forces will soon withdraw from Syria, and the U.S. State Department put a hold on further stabilization assistance to areas liberated from the Islamic State. The U.S. and its partners should offer stabilization and reconstruction help, particularly in regions where much of the damage was the result of American-supported military operations.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Iran: The Nuclear Agreement Will Survive, at Least for Now
Richard Charles Baffa @R_Baffa
Apr 4, 2018
The Hill
A U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal does not necessarily mean the deal will collapse. But a broader collapse of the agreement along with the imposition of harsh sanctions in the coming months could sharply escalate tensions with Iran.
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Middle East

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

Assessing Transatlantic Fallout After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal

Regime Appears Fragile as Iranians Turn Much of Their Ire Inward

Five Thoughts on Jerusalem, Gaza, and What's in Between

The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East

The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal

The U.S. Is Out of the Iran Deal. What Now?

What Does Mission Accomplished in Syria Really Mean?

Is America Ready for a Peace Deal in Afghanistan?

Stabilization Is Essential to Accomplishing the Mission

Europe's Great Challenge: Integrating Syrian Refugees

Arms Control Hostage to Skripal and Syria Attacks

A Norm in Crisis: Implications of Persistent Chemical Weapons Use

Turkey's Double Standard: How Ankara's Actions Contradict Its Claims of Opposing the Islamic State

Conditioning American Withdrawal from Syria

Iran: The Nuclear Agreement Will Survive, at Least for Now

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