Middle East

commentary

From the Ashes of Hamas-Israel War, Can Economics Drive Peace?

The economic costs of the violence in Gaza threaten Israel's economic future. For the Palestinians, the costs may be so large that they undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. But the magnitude of these economic losses may, paradoxically, forge a new pathway toward peace once the fighting stops.

Daniel Egel

commentary

The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix

Today's terrorist threat matrix seems more like an abstract expressionist painting. To those accustomed to traditional landscapes, it is difficult to discern what it depicts. The fighting in Gaza may well provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region, the magnitude and shape of which will depend on the course of the conflict.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

blog

'Israel's 9/11,' Promoting the 988 Hotline, the Future of Space: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the Oct. 7 attack wasn't Israel's 9/11, humanity's future approach to space, the pressing need to ensure more people know about the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, and more.

commentary

The West's Incoherent Critique of Israel's Gaza Strategy

The battlefield geography of Gaza means that any operation there would turn into a bloody, highly destructive ground operation, with a lot of civilians caught in the crossfire. While Israel can mitigate some of these effects, neither Israel nor any other military can prevent them entirely. In this war, there is no happy medium.

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

Why the Oct. 7 Attack Wasn't Israel's 9/11

There are some basic strategic lessons to be learned from the U.S. response to 9/11 that are applicable to Israel's unfolding operation in Gaza. But in many key ways, the two conflicts couldn't be further apart.

Raphael S. Cohen

blog

Supporting Veterans, Israel-Hamas War, AI and Geopolitics: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on supporting America's veterans, what Israel's ground offensive in Gaza can and cannot accomplish, how AI might affect the rise and fall of nations, and more.

commentary

What Israel's Ground Offensive Can—and Cannot—Accomplish

Weeks after terrorist attacks left 1,400 Israelis dead, Israel has started its much-anticipated ground offensive in Gaza. But what can such an operation hope to achieve, and why launch such a campaign now?

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

Terror and the Secondary Trauma of Social Media

As graphic images from Israel and Gaza proliferate on social media, it is likely that these images are having significant negative impacts on the mental health and well-being of many. Mitigating their impact on global mental health might require making hard choices and doing the work to forge community bonds that prioritize everyone's well-being.

Douglas Yeung @DouglasCYeung

commentary

The History of Hostage Negotiations Tells Us Empathy Isn't Enough

History offers no prescriptions on how to bargain for human life. The circumstances of each case differ, but lessons can be learned.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

blog

Disinformation Amid the Israel-Hamas War, U.S. Gun Policy, Cannabis: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the information war may play out between Israel and Hamas, what the evidence says (and doesn't say) about U.S. gun policy, supply models for recreational cannabis, and more.

commentary

Lies, Misinformation Play Key Role in Israel-Hamas Fight

At the strategic level, the war in Gaza is about perception, telling a story about who is the victim and who is the aggressor. Lies, mistruths, and disinformation will play a key and continuing role in this fight.

Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, William Marcellino

blog

Israel-Hamas War, AI and Gene Editing, Social Media Regulation: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the Israel-Hamas war, the convergence of machine learning and gene editing, regulating social media while protecting free speech, and more.

commentary

What North Korea Is Learning from the Hamas-Israel War

South Korea and the United States should rein in North Korean nuclear weapon production and prepare to respond to escalated North Korean coercion. While Kim Jong-un probably won't resort to a Hamas-style attack, he certainly shares Hamas' goal of cultivating U.S. reluctance to get involved militarily in the region.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

The Four Questions the U.S. Military Should Be Asking About Operation Swords of Iron

The war in Gaza, much like previous Israeli wars, will likely yield a host of lessons for American military planners. It's not too early to identify the right questions to be asking as the conflict unfolds.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

Sparing Civilian Lives in Gaza

How do you protect innocent civilians while conducting effective urban military operations against an enemy who is integrated into the civilian population and entrenched in a location's infrastructure? Despite the ferocity of the Hamas attack and the Israeli response, the moral obligation to reduce civilian harm cannot be ignored.

Karen M. Sudkamp