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Middle East

Syria
commentary
Russia's Risky Game Plan for Syria
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Oct 29, 2019
The National Interest
It will take time to assess the extent to which Russia has “won“ in Syria. Absent a peaceful end to the conflict and an infusion of large-scale Western aid, downside risks for Russia could take some of the bloom off of its rose in Syria.
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Domestic Terrorism
blog
White Supremacist Terrorism, Wildfires, the Dark Web: RAND Weekly Recap
Nov 1, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on violent white supremacy, power outages to prevent wildfires, how to catch criminals on the dark web, and more.
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Syria
blog
The Syria Withdrawal, Climate Policy, Drones: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 25, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on the effects of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, one expert's take on climate policy, how drones could help get blood to soldiers who need it, and more.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
How the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Provides a Boost to ISIS
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 21, 2019
Fox News Channel
President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria could provide the ISIS terrorist group with the time and space to regrow its organization and extend its networks throughout the Middle East. The longer-term strategic effects of the decision could reverberate in the region for years to come.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey Martini
Oct 21, 2019
Fox News
Without an orderly process for its national security decisions, the Trump administration has defaulted to the worst option regarding Syria. The sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces has left an opening for Russia to exploit. It also left the Kurds, a U.S. partner, to fend off a Turkish assault.
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Iran
commentary
Iran, the Unitary State
Afshon Ostovar, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Oct 18, 2019
Foreign Affairs
Current and future U.S. policy toward Iran must begin with the premise that the Islamic Republic is the sum of its parts and that to try to empower moderates or disempower hard-liners is naive. Rather, Washington should strive to deal with Iran as it is, not as Washington wishes it were.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Indecision in Washington Compounded the Kurds' Dilemma
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey Martini
Oct 18, 2019
The Hill
Core qualities of statesmanship and statecraft have been notably lacking in charting the U.S. administration's Syria end game. This has compounded the unavoidable costs of withdrawal with charges of betrayal and a retreat under fire.
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Iran
commentary
Iran's Proxies Are More Powerful Than Ever
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 16, 2019
Foreign Policy
The Trump administration has pursued a so-called maximum pressure strategy designed to alter the course of Iran's foreign and security policies, which relies heavily on sanctions to change Iranian behavior. Financial sanctions are an important part of any counterterrorism strategy. But they aren't enough.
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Cyber Warfare
blog
Virtual Societal Warfare, Iran, Opioids: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 11, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on the risk of virtual societal welfare, Iran's domestic debates, federal policy options for supervised consumption sites, and more.
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Politics and Government
commentary
The Realities of Civil War
Gian Gentile
Oct 9, 2019
The National Interest
Civil war is not a pretty thing to see or be a part of. Those understandably engaged with the intense debate over whether or not the president should be impeached should not suggest that impeachment would result in civil war in our country. There are peaceful means available for us as Americans to follow in order to solve the problems at hand.
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Tobacco and Smoking
blog
E-Cigarettes, 'Stand Your Ground,' Cyber Coercion: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 20, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on the planned federal ban on flavored e-cigarettes, “stand your ground” laws, understanding cyber coercion, and more.
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Democracy
commentary
African Dictators Have Been Losing Power—Some to Democratic Governments. Militaries Can Tip the Scales Toward Democracy
Nathaniel Allen, Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Sep 16, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Africa's security forces most often make headlines when they commit atrocities, crack down on protesters, or seize power in coups. But Africa's troops can also contribute to democracy and peace when they lay down their arms or refuse orders to turn their guns against the people.
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Israel
commentary
Israel’s War with Iran May Be Going Too Far
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Sep 16, 2019
The National Interest
Israel has a right to defend itself from Iranian threats to its country. American leaders should consider balancing support for Israel's efforts to counter Iran with firm redlines about activities negatively impacting American interests.
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Iran
commentary
Syria Changed the Iranian Way of War
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 16, 2019
Foreign Affairs
To get a sense of the playbook that Tehran might consult in any future conflict with the United States, Washington should pay close attention to what the Iranians have learned in Syria.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Hormuz Dilemma
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Aug 16, 2019
The Hill
Japan is a staunch U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific. But any decision to support a coalition against Iran in the Middle East is likely to put Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a tough position.
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Counterinsurgency
commentary
Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
David E. Thaler, Yousuf Abdelfatah
Aug 12, 2019
Small Wars Journal
Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.
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