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Middle East

Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Congress Can Save Arms Control
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Greg Thielmann
Nov 27, 2018
The Hill
The Trump administration is seeking agreements with North Korea and Iran to eliminate their nuclear arms potential. Success may hinge on cooperation between the White House and Congress.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Could America Use Its Leverage to Alter the Saudis' Behavior?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Becca Wasser @Becca_Wasser
Nov 15, 2018
Newsweek
As the Saudis' chief political and military partner and the undisputed security guarantor in the Middle East, the United States has considerable influence it can wield over Saudi decisionmaking. The Trump administration could consider using its influence to encourage Saudi leadership to moderate its assertive and damaging policies abroad.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Is Major Realignment Taking Place in the Middle East?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Oct 31, 2018
Foreign Affairs
The shifting alignments in the Middle East have intensified since the murder of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. Turkey has drifted away from NATO and toward Iran and Russia. Like Tehran and Moscow, Ankara is now more anti-Western than at any point in recent memory. What does this mean for the United States?
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Saudi Arabia
commentary
The Khashoggi Case and the Cost of Subcontracting U.S. Policy
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Oct 23, 2018
The Hill
Following the killing of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the United States needs to, at minimum, return toward a distinctly American policy toward the Middle East, one which can be distinguished from that of its local partners.
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Iran
commentary
America's Indefinite Endgame in Syria
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Oct 16, 2018
The Atlantic
The Trump administration's position on the Syrian civil war has shifted from countering ISIS to containing Iran. America will remain in Syria as long as Iran does. But an unending timetable for the withdrawal of troops is far more problematic for Washington than it is for Tehran.
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Terrorism Financing
commentary
ISIS's New Plans to Get Rich and Wreak Havoc
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 10, 2018
Foreign Policy
Although the Islamic State has lost nearly 98 percent of the territory it once controlled, it is ripe for a comeback in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq and Syria. The group has proven that it is capable of making money even without controlling large population centers.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Power of Affiliates: Which Islamic State Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 9, 2018
The National Interest
With ISIS's caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even deadlier and more capable than the core organization was during its peak. And with franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there's no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world's most dangerous terrorist group.
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Afghanistan
commentary
The Risks of Permanent War
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Sep 28, 2018
Just Security
Why is America in Afghanistan? What interests justify its sacrifices? How will the war end? If the United States finds it hard to answer such questions after nearly two decades, the coming years are unlikely to provide clarity. If a campaign has no end, it can have no objective. If it has no objective, it cannot be won.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Why We Should Measure the Economic Impact of Terrorism in the Middle East
Antonia Ward @antoniahward
Sep 24, 2018
Georgetown Security Studies Review
Though physical impacts of terrorism in the Middle East should be the main focus of counterterrorism efforts, financial impacts should not be ignored. Officials could help mitigate devastating economic effects by identifying and protecting essential regional revenue streams like tourism and oil.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Can U.S. Pressure Lead to a New Iran Nuclear Deal?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Eric Brewer
Sep 18, 2018
Foreign Policy
It could be a mistake for the United States to assume that more pressure will bring Iran closer to ending or reducing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. When it comes to measures aimed at Iran's nuclear program, more pressure could worsen nuclear risks and further drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies.
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Information Operations
commentary
Iran's Disinformation Campaigns
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 24, 2018
Foreign Affairs
New reports suggest that the Kremlin may have company in its efforts to shape the United States' domestic information landscape: Iran. As Americans prepare to return to the voting booths this fall, Washington would be well advised to look into Iran's disinformation capabilities and intentions.
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Syria
commentary
The Growing Risk of a New Middle East War
Richard C. Baffa, Nathan Vest
Aug 21, 2018
United Press International
Escalating clashes between Israeli and Iranian forces in Syria have demonstrably increased the risk of a new, large-scale regional conflict that would likely involve the U.S. military. Tehran's continued provocations and violations of Israel's stated red lines are fueling escalation with the potential to rapidly spin out of control.
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Iran
commentary
Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help the U.S.?
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Aug 7, 2018
The Hill
What happens if leaving the Iran nuclear deal and applying “maximum pressure” doesn't lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse? The Trump administration may find that it's much easier to break a deal than to replace it with something better.
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Iran
commentary
Regime Change in Iran: Watch What You Ask For
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Aug 2, 2018
USA Today
Mike Pompeo's speech in May signaled a desire for regime change in Iran, but the U.S. will have to change its approach to shape a positive outcome. This could involve targeting sanctions more narrowly rather than seeking to impoverish the general population. And lifting the ban on Iranian visitors to the U.S. would be a good start.
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Russia
commentary
Russia's Wars and Trump
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Jul 11, 2018
The Hill
At the July 16 summit in Helsinki, President Trump might stress that the West will persist in imposing costs on Russia for current and any future malign interventions. At the same time, he could offer to work with Putin in the search for peace in Syria and Ukraine if Moscow were to decide to withdraw its forces.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Time to Make a Deal on Syria
Samuel Charap @scharap, Jeffrey Martini
Jul 10, 2018
Foreign Policy
U.S. leverage is much diminished by the Assad regime's recent gains but there are still opportunities for Washington and Russia to achieve a settlement that preserves some U.S. interests. These include maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State and constraining Iranian influence in Syria.
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