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Middle East

Afghanistan
commentary
Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 23, 2017
The Cipher Brief
The Trump administration faces the choice of losing quickly by withdrawing from Afghanistan; losing slowly by staying at the current, inadequate levels of commitment; or not losing by increasing that commitment enough to maintain a stalemate on the battlefield.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The U.S.-France Dustup Over Counterterrorism in the Sahel
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jun 23, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
It's time for Paris and Washington to get together with the G5 nations of the Sahel and draft a strategy for achieving shared objectives. The French cannot do it alone or even with the support of the G5 nations. The U.S. would be penny wise but pound foolish to stay aloof or even just uphold the status quo.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 22, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Islamic State's Disposable Army
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 20, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. The group targets malcontents and the most suggestible, knowing they are desperate to belong to something and willing to die for it.
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Syria
commentary
When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 16, 2017
Defense One
The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
The Diplomat
Being a proactive contributor to peace involves risk if a country is serious about gaining real-world experience. Pulling out of South Sudan deprives Japan's Self-Defense Force of crucial operational experience and sends a confusing message to the United States and the international community.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye, Jeffrey Martini
Jun 7, 2017
The National Interest
Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State
Natasha Lander, Kimberly Jackson
Jun 5, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Despite substantial policy and military focus, U.S. attempts to stop the Islamic State group have met with only varying degrees of success. A patient, long-term U.S. investment in governance—including a renewed commitment to addressing the root causes of instability in the Middle East—is needed in Iraq and Syria.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
What Happens After ISIS Goes Underground
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Chad C. Serena
May 30, 2017
The National Interest
As the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria suffers defeats on the battlefield, it is expanding its cyber presence to continue to encourage attacks abroad. The more the group relies on cyberspace, the more likely it will expose important segments of its organization to detection and disruption.
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Iran
commentary
Why Trump's Pressures on Iran Won't Benefit America
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
May 25, 2017
Fortune
The Trump administration has demonstrated a renewed policy of pressure against Iran. In doing so, it risks losing the ability to leverage the greatest potential source of change in Iran: millions of Iranians who want a better country at peace with the world.
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Turkey
commentary
A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?
Stephen J. Flanagan
May 21, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
While Turkish President Erdogan and U.S. President Trump emphasized the positive aspects of bilateral relations after their meeting, there remain points of contention. The stakes at this meeting and its outcome are high for both Turkey and the United States, and could mark a major milestone in the relationship.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
ISIS: Weakened but Still Potent
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 18, 2017
The Cipher Brief
ISIS is being defeated as an insurgency while preparing to transform into a clandestine terrorist group. But ISIS will continue to pose a serious threat to the countries where it operates and to the Western nations that it targets as it evolves.
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Gaza Strip
commentary
Hamas's Strategic Rebranding
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 17, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Hamas has unveiled a revised version of its charter that appears to soften the group's stance toward Israel. Does this represent a shift away from violence and toward a more lasting and peaceful political presence? Or is it a ploy to buy time to rearm?
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Terrorism Financing
commentary
Can the Islamic State Survive Financially?
Patrick B. Johnston @J0HNST0N, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 15, 2017
Lawfare
Significant gains have been made in attacking the Islamic State's cash and diminishing its ability to finance high-frequency attacks in Iraq and Syria. But the group may retain enough money to support sporadic attacks in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe.
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Politics and Government
commentary
Toward a Renewed Middle East Peace Process
Shira Efron @ShiraEfron
May 11, 2017
The Jewish Journal
Momentum is building toward resumption of the dormant Middle East peace process. But there will need to be a clear, consistent plan that delivers quick, tangible results to both sides and helps restore trust between them in order for a peace plan to succeed.
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Special Operations Forces
commentary
SOF's Evolving Role: Warfare 'By, With, and Through' Local Forces
Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100
May 9, 2017
The Cipher Brief
U.S. special operations forces are not providing the muscle of the frontline combat troops fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Instead, they are providing meaningful support to the various indigenous forces. If they succeed, this model could become a standard option in the U.S. military playbook.
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Middle East

Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing

The U.S.-France Dustup Over Counterterrorism in the Sahel

Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?

The Islamic State's Disposable Army

When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?

Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal

Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides

Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State

What Happens After ISIS Goes Underground

Why Trump's Pressures on Iran Won't Benefit America

A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?

ISIS: Weakened but Still Potent

Hamas's Strategic Rebranding

Can the Islamic State Survive Financially?

Toward a Renewed Middle East Peace Process

SOF's Evolving Role: Warfare 'By, With, and Through' Local Forces

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