Middle East

Middle East
commentary
In the Middle East, Russia and China Expand Their Influence
Ali Wyne, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 18, 2020
Lawfare
While the United States is concerned primarily about a resurgent China's inroads in the Middle East, it is also nervous about the gambits of a revanchist Russia. As the United States decides when and how to contest China and Russia—in and beyond the Middle East—it will have to resist alarmism as vigorously as complacency.
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Afghanistan
commentary
The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out
Abdul Sayed, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 14, 2020
Newsweek
The Afghan Taliban is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United States. Washington seems to be holding out hope that the deal will stabilize the country. But the Islamic State Khorasan Province remains a concern. The Islamic State in Afghanistan may be down, but it's not out.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Is al Qaida Still a Threat?
Asfandyar Mir, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 9, 2020
Foreign Affairs
Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
The Evidence on Kids and COVID-19, China's Use of Big Data, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 4, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on what we know (and what we don't) about kids and COVID-19, how China is using big data, the future of telemedicine, and more.
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Lebanon
commentary
Addressing Lebanon's Ailments, Acute and Chronic
Krishna B. Kumar @kbkumar_, Louay Constant @LouayConstant
Sep 1, 2020
RealClearWorld
The recent explosion in Beirut has again led to calls for political and economic reforms in Lebanon. The country has an economy in crisis, corruption, few job opportunities, and an influx of 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Sustained global investment is needed if Lebanon is to recover over the long run.
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Political Reform Movements
blog
Radicalization, the Gender Pay Gap, Israel-UAE Deal: RAND Weekly Recap
Aug 21, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the potential for a new era of radicalization, insights into the gender pay gap, why the Israel-UAE deal doesn’t merit the hype, and more.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why Israel-UAE Deal Doesn't Merit the Hype
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Aug 18, 2020
Al-Monitor
Some have called the Israel-UAE normalization agreement a geopolitical earthquake. But the hyperbole is not warranted; this deal is unlikely to be a strategic game changer in the Middle East.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
What to Watch to Understand the Sino-Iranian Relationship
Colin P. Clarke, Mollie Saltskog
Aug 13, 2020
Lawfare
Beijing and Tehran are in the process of finalizing an ambitious partnership covering a range of security and economic issues. The United States should not overreact to shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, and should instead keep an eye out to assess the evolution of the relationship and take stock of what is delivered instead of what is merely promised.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Can America Weaken the Russia-Iran Axis?
Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Jul 31, 2020
Newsweek
America's slow-motion retreat in Syria could embolden Iran and Russia and perhaps lead them to underestimate U.S. resolve to protect its interests in the Middle East. Clearer U.S. priorities and more deliberate engagement could reduce risk and help avoid miscalculation.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Can Sudan Escape Its History as a Transit Hub for Violent Extremist Organizations?
Peter Chalk, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Colin P. Clarke
Jul 24, 2020
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Sudan continues to confront major challenges that could derail its path back to the mainstream of international politics. Sudan must show that it is no longer a haven for terrorist and violent extremist groups and that it is committed to ensuring that this remains true.
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Syria
commentary
With Rollout of Caesar Sanctions on Syria, U.S. Is Just Getting Started in New Bid to End War
Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz
Jul 22, 2020
RealClearDefense
In June, the U.S. government announced the implementation of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act with a flurry of sanctions against 39 people and entities connected with the Assad regime. There is much more to come. Syria, and Russia and Iran, have not yet felt the Caesar Act in full force.
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Summer Learning
blog
COVID Learning Loss, Russian Trolls, Artificial Intelligence: RAND Weekly Recap
Jul 17, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on helping students recover learning losses, fighting Russian trolls, racial disparity in unemployment benefits, the race for AI leadership, and more.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jul 15, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.
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Turkey
commentary
A Way Forward for the United States and Turkey
Nilsu Goren, Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jul 9, 2020
Al-Monitor
Relations between the United States and Turkey, while fraught with tension, must also align with a mutual interest in stability in the Middle East and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. It may be important for the region's stability and prosperity to find constructive ways for the United States to work with Turkey in the years ahead.
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Air Defense
commentary
Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems
John V. Parachini, Peter A. Wilson
Jul 2, 2020
RealClearDefense
External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.
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Russia
commentary
Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared
Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh, Bradley Martin, Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock
Jun 30, 2020
Newsweek
Russia is seeking more access and freedom of movement in the Mediterranean region, and is bolstering its military footprint to achieve this objective. The United States and NATO could respond by developing a more robust southern strategy, with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively.
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Middle East

In the Middle East, Russia and China Expand Their Influence

The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

The Evidence on Kids and COVID-19, China's Use of Big Data, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap

Addressing Lebanon's Ailments, Acute and Chronic

Radicalization, the Gender Pay Gap, Israel-UAE Deal: RAND Weekly Recap

Why Israel-UAE Deal Doesn't Merit the Hype

What to Watch to Understand the Sino-Iranian Relationship

Can America Weaken the Russia-Iran Axis?

Can Sudan Escape Its History as a Transit Hub for Violent Extremist Organizations?

With Rollout of Caesar Sanctions on Syria, U.S. Is Just Getting Started in New Bid to End War

COVID Learning Loss, Russian Trolls, Artificial Intelligence: RAND Weekly Recap

An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?

A Way Forward for the United States and Turkey

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems

Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared

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