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Middle East

Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Can U.S. Pressure Lead to A New Iran Nuclear Deal?
Ariane Mitra Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Eric Brewer
Sep 18, 2018
Foreign Policy
It could be a mistake for the United States to assume that more pressure will bring Iran closer to ending or reducing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. When it comes to measures aimed at Iran's nuclear program, more pressure could worsen nuclear risks and further drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies.
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Information Operations
commentary
Iran's Disinformation Campaigns
Ariane Mitra Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 24, 2018
Foreign Affairs
New reports suggest that the Kremlin may have company in its efforts to shape the United States' domestic information landscape: Iran. As Americans prepare to return to the voting booths this fall, Washington would be well advised to look into Iran's disinformation capabilities and intentions.
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Syria
commentary
The Growing Risk of a New Middle East War
Richard C. Baffa @R_Baffa, Nathan Vest
Aug 21, 2018
United Press International
Escalating clashes between Israeli and Iranian forces in Syria have demonstrably increased the risk of a new, large-scale regional conflict that would likely involve the U.S. military. Tehran's continued provocations and violations of Israel's stated red lines are fueling escalation with the potential to rapidly spin out of control.
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Iran
commentary
Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help the U.S.?
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye
Aug 7, 2018
The Hill
What happens if leaving the Iran nuclear deal and applying “maximum pressure” doesn't lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse? The Trump administration may find that it's much easier to break a deal than to replace it with something better.
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Iran
commentary
Regime Change in Iran: Watch What You Ask For
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Aug 2, 2018
USA Today
Mike Pompeo's speech in May signaled a desire for regime change in Iran, but the U.S. will have to change its approach to shape a positive outcome. This could involve targeting sanctions more narrowly rather than seeking to impoverish the general population. And lifting the ban on Iranian visitors to the U.S. would be a good start.
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Russia
commentary
Russia's Wars and Trump
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Jul 11, 2018
The Hill
At the July 16 summit in Helsinki, President Trump might stress that the West will persist in imposing costs on Russia for current and any future malign interventions. At the same time, he could offer to work with Putin in the search for peace in Syria and Ukraine if Moscow were to decide to withdraw its forces.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Time to Make a Deal on Syria
Samuel Charap @scharap, Jeffrey Martini
Jul 10, 2018
Foreign Policy
U.S. leverage is much diminished by the Assad regime's recent gains but there are still opportunities for Washington and Russia to achieve a settlement that preserves some U.S. interests. These include maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State and constraining Iranian influence in Syria.
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Afghanistan
commentary
Afghan Ceasefires Offer Hope for a Peaceful Future
Laurel E. Miller
Jun 25, 2018
The Hill
Parallel ceasefires in Afghanistan by the Afghan government and the Taliban for the end of the holy month of Ramadan brought a short respite from the violence. This was an unprecedented development, but was it an opening for resolution of the conflict?
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Afghanistan
q&a
A Way Forward in Afghanistan: Q&A with Laurel Miller
Jun 21, 2018
As the United States approaches its 17th year of military involvement in Afghanistan, Laurel Miller, a senior foreign policy expert at RAND, describes the current situation and hopes for the future.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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U.S.-European Relations
commentary
Assessing Transatlantic Fallout After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal
James Hoobler
May 31, 2018
American Institute for Contemporary German Studies
The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has set off another round of reflection on the state and future of the transatlantic alliance. Though this dispute may not in itself lead to a full breach in the transatlantic relationship, it joins a growing list of sharp disagreements impacting U.S. alliances.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
Regime Appears Fragile as Iranians Turn Much of Their Ire Inward
Richard C. Baffa @R_Baffa, Nathan Vest
May 21, 2018
The Hill
Economic hardship is fueling unrest in Iran. New sanctions stemming from the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal may exacerbate already difficult conditions. Now might be the time to exert maximum pressure on the regime in an effort to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table.
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Gaza Strip
commentary
Five Thoughts on Jerusalem, Gaza, and What's in Between
Shira Efron @ShiraEfron
May 15, 2018
The Hill
Dozens of people have been killed and over 2,000 injured in protests in the Gaza Strip along the border with Israel. Continued clashes are expected until the fundamental problems of the strip are solved, including the governance vacuum, the Palestinian Authority-Hamas rift, and the conflict with Israel.
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Russia
commentary
The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East
Ben Connable, Becca Wasser @Becca_Wasser
May 10, 2018
London School of Economics
The greatest limitation of Russia's Middle East strategy is that it is not Russia, but the Middle Eastern states themselves that determine the depth of their relations with Moscow. Just as Russia seeks to engage in the Middle East for its own benefit, these states also seek to use Russia to their advantage.
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U.S.-European Relations
commentary
The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye
May 10, 2018
The Hill
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The U.S. Is Out of the Iran Deal. What Now?
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
May 9, 2018
Reuters
Abandoning the nuclear agreement with Iran isolates the United States, reneges on an American commitment, adds to the risk of a trade war with U.S. allies and a hot war with Iran, and diminishes the prospects of an agreement to eliminate the North Korean threat.
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Middle East

Can U.S. Pressure Lead to A New Iran Nuclear Deal?

Iran's Disinformation Campaigns

The Growing Risk of a New Middle East War

Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help the U.S.?

Regime Change in Iran: Watch What You Ask For

Russia's Wars and Trump

Time to Make a Deal on Syria

Afghan Ceasefires Offer Hope for a Peaceful Future

A Way Forward in Afghanistan: Q&A with Laurel Miller

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

Assessing Transatlantic Fallout After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal

Regime Appears Fragile as Iranians Turn Much of Their Ire Inward

Five Thoughts on Jerusalem, Gaza, and What's in Between

The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East

The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal

The U.S. Is Out of the Iran Deal. What Now?

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