Military Aircraft

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Nuclear Deterrence, Russia and Iran, Deepfakes: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how much is “enough” for U.S. nuclear forces, the budding Russia-Iran partnership, the challenge of detecting deepfakes, and more.

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F-16s Are No Magic Bullet for Ukraine, but They Are a Game Changer with the Right Munitions

Will F-16s win the war for Ukraine? No. Only ground victories and unacceptable Russian losses will force Putin to negotiate. However, a long-term commitment to supporting a well-equipped, sizable F-16 force will improve the likelihood of Ukrainian success even if an F-16 never shoots a Russian fighter.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

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Why Improve Ukraine's Deep-Strike Capability?

Coordinated deep-strike capabilities—air-launched and ground-launched—will be most effective in degrading Russian forces and operations. Using air and ground launchers would force Russian commanders to devote substantial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to attempt to find these systems.

John Hoehn, Hunter Stoll, et al.

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The Uncounted Losses to Russia's Air Force

The Russians have burned through more of the expected life span of their aircraft more quickly than anticipated. To make up for it, they'll have to procure more aircraft, increase maintenance, reduce operations, or accept a smaller force—or some combination of those.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

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UFOs Are Not the Only Potential Threat in American Skies

How can the United States best monitor its millions of square miles of domestic airspace for unidentified anomalous phenomena—what were once called UFOs—or anything else? Public reporting could help officials identify potential threats—but it'd help if the sightings being reported were actually unknown aerial phenomena and not U.S. military aircraft.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, Ashley Gromis, et al.

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Is the Warning Clock on Our National Defense Running Out?

The United States has never invoked a ten-year rule regarding preparations for long-term military competition with China, as Great Britain did after World War I. But there have been times when the United States has behaved as if such a rule were in place.

Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn, Thom Shanker

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Can Cheap Drones Be the Answer to Tensions in the Taiwan Strait?

The more we learn about the war in Ukraine, the more we come to know that drones will play an increasingly important role on the modern battlefield. But how is the U.S. military thinking about what role these aircraft might play in future wars? When paired with modern sensors, could they offer an asymmetric advantage in future competitions?

Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn, Thom Shanker

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What Is the Long-Term Strategy for Ukraine's Air Force?

It is encouraging that Ukraine might receive F-16s to improve its combat capabilities. Western policymakers might begin thinking now about what the Ukrainian Air Force may require in the future, especially if the Russian threat remains acute.

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Arming Teachers, F-16s for Ukraine, Commercial Spaceflight: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how teachers feel about arming teachers, what F-16s will (and won't) do for Ukraine, the need to regulate commercial spaceflight, and more.

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What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine

After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.

Brynn Tannehill

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F-16s Will Bolster Ukraine's Fighting Force

F-16s going to Ukraine could help it defend against Russian aerial assaults. But their greatest value may be to augment future Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at retaking occupied land. This will require training and exercising, but Ukrainian forces are fully capable of mastering it.

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Why Does Ukraine Want Western Jets?

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has requested Western fighter jets. Why does it want them? Of what use could they be? And what are some of their limitations?

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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What Difference Will Polish and Slovakian Fighter Jets Make to Ukraine?

The news that Poland and Slovakia are to deliver MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine signals a departure from the longstanding stance of the international community, which had hitherto resisted Kyiv's calls for more combat aircraft. While this donation will be welcomed in Ukraine, it could raise political and practical issues the West must address to maximize the benefits and mitigate the risks.

James Black

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The Political Dilemma May Be Just the Tip of the Iceberg for Europe When Deciding Whether to Send Fighter Jets to Ukraine

Supplying military equipment to another country's forces can be far from straightforward. The logistical, operational, and technical considerations are immensely complex, and any offer made by NATO allies to Ukraine might best come with a credible plan for deployment and effect—not just a cheque that cannot be cashed.

James Black, Ben Caves

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As F-15s Leave Okinawa, an Opportunity to Change Indo-Pacific Air Tactics with Unmanned Options

As it considers its future force mix and posture in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere, the U.S. Air Force has options that go beyond traditional platforms. Among them are rapidly maturing concepts for generating and sustaining high-tempo operations in forward areas with autonomous, runway-independent air vehicles.

David A. Ochmanek