Military Doctrine

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50 Years Without the Draft: Behind the Bold Move That Ended Conscription, and What's Next for the All-Volunteer Force

On the 50th anniversary of the all-volunteer force, the important question is: “How has the move to manning the Army without relying on conscription fared?” The short answer: Quite well.

Bernard D. Rostker

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The Will to Fight in the Age of Social Media

Social media messaging has played a decisive role in strengthening Ukraine's will to fight—arguably the single most important factor in war—against Russia.

William Marcellino, Michael J. McNerney

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Problems in U.S. Schools, Conflict with Russia, Opioid Trafficking: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on what America's school district leaders are worried about, how to break the cycle of conflict with Russia, a new report on synthetic opioid trafficking, and more.

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Trying to Forestall the Next Civilian Casualty Horror

After civilians are injured or killed, the U.S. Defense Department isn't doing enough to learn from its own failures. The Pentagon needs to devote resources and senior leader attention to an issue that has historically lacked both. Civilian protection should become the singular priority for a critical mass of people across the organization.

Michael J. McNerney, Gabrielle Tarini @gabbytarini

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Preventing Civilian Casualties, Drinking During the Pandemic, Vaccination Equity: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to reform the Pentagon’s policies on civilian casualties, secondary school principals’ well-being, alcohol use in the COVID-19 era, and more.

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The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning

U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, William Marcellino, et al.

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Grand Strategy Is Total: French Gen. Andre Beaufré on the Nuclear Age

Gen. André Beaufre, the father of contemporary French strategic thought, epitomizes better than anyone the traits that make modern French military theory unusually rich. He is also a key for accessing a rich and distinctly different way of thinking about war with direct applications for today, whether one is pondering Afghanistan or how to deal with China.

Michael Shurkin

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Modern War for Romantics: Ferdinand Foch and the Principles of War

Recent American military history suggests civilian and military leaders could benefit from studying French military strategy. For those who wish to understand French military thinking, the place to start is with Marshal Ferdinand Foch.

Michael Shurkin

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Can Iraq Evict U.S. Forces?

The Iraqi parliament voted to expel U.S. troops from Iraq. This vote was nonbinding, and the Iraqi caretaker government cannot pass laws, but it does indicate that a majority in parliament wants U.S. forces to leave.

Stacie L. Pettyjohn

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AI for Peace

The United States should apply lessons from the 70-year history of governing nuclear technology by building a framework for governing AI military technology. An AI for Peace program should articulate the dangers of this new technology, principles to manage the dangers, and a structure to shape the incentives for other states.

Patrick S. Roberts @RamblingRoberts

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A Code of Conduct for AI in Defense Should Be an Extension of Other Military Codes

An AI code of conduct for defense should look a lot like all other defense codes of conduct. A global society that would create the Geneva Convention is a society that believes in a moral code for warfare. This same code could extend into its weaponized algorithms.

Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc

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Anticipating a New Russian Military Doctrine in 2020: What It Might Contain and Why It Matters

The United States and its allies should anticipate the possibility of an updated Russian military doctrine as early as 2020. Evaluating this document closely is important for understanding Russian threat perceptions and the leadership's methods to address those threats.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

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The Insurgent Counter-Insurgent: The French Army's Hero and Some Truths About Modern Warfare

When asked about their heroes, one name comes up with French Army officers more than any other: Hélie Denoix de Saint Marc. Saint Marc lived an extraordinary life, to be sure. But his story also contains important lessons about modern warfare and counter-insurgency warfare in particular, the work of training local forces, and the imperative of aligning military means with realistic political objectives.

Michael Shurkin

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The Flawed Logic of Proportionality

President Trump halted a retaliatory strike against Iran on the basis that it would have claimed many Iranian lives and was not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. There are many good reasons to avoid attacking Iran, but if Washington must resort to force in the future, it should avoid the flawed logic of proportionality.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Getting to Know the Competition

Americans are facing a new reality in global great power relations that will define the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy for the foreseeable future. Understanding China's threat perceptions, while remaining clear-eyed regarding differences in objectives, is essential to developing strategies to deter conflict.

Cortez A. Cooper III

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Japan's Invisible Hand

Shinzo Abe has cemented his position as Japan's prime minister for the next three years. Now he is expected to make a concerted push for revising the Constitution, which has not been amended since 1947. But the Japanese public is not convinced of the need to revise the Constitution, making his efforts likely to fail.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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The Risks of Permanent War

Why is America in Afghanistan? What interests justify its sacrifices? How will the war end? If the United States finds it hard to answer such questions after nearly two decades, the coming years are unlikely to provide clarity. If a campaign has no end, it can have no objective. If it has no objective, it cannot be won.

Ali Wyne

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Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea

Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Nguyen Nhat Anh

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Toward One Understanding of Multiple Domains

The U.S. defense community can and should do what it can to get the most benefit from operating across domains. It just needs to remember to proceed carefully to discern between actual benefits and falsehoods that may do more harm than good.

Michael Spirtas

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Meet France's War Philosophers

Gen. Vincent Desportes and Col. Michel Goya draw on careers focused on the study and practice of war and share a grimmer and more Hobbesian vision than what one normally meets in French public debates. This makes them appealing guides to the dark world in which the French now find themselves.

Michael Shurkin

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Xi's Consolidation of Power at the 19th Party Congress: Implications for PLA Aerospace Forces

Xi Jinping has emerged from the 19th Party Congress stronger than at least his past two predecessors. He solidified his grip on power and revealed significant changes to the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase

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What a 1963 Novel Tells Us About the French Army, Mission Command, and the Romance of the Indochina War

The novel La 317e Section (The 317th Platoon) informs and reflects an operating style rooted in the French Army's collective memory of the colonial wars. Colonial operations tended to be low-budget, small-footprint missions that placed junior officers in positions of considerable authority and responsibility. Service promised quick glory but was also more dangerous.

Michael Shurkin

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Managing Chaos in an Era of Great Power Competition

As Washington policymakers seek a new strategic course, U.S. national security strategy should not neglect the importance of competition short of armed conflict. A U.S. strategy that incorporates this perspective from the beginning could manage chaos at a reasonable cost.

Austin Long, Linda Robinson, et al.

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Why Strategies Disappoint — and How to Fix Them

Strategies fail because leaders are unwilling to make difficult decisions at the risk of being wrong. Can the new U.S. administration succeed in fixing the strategy process?

Raphael S. Cohen

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Five Simple Strategy Lessons for a New Secretary of Defense

Secretary of Defense James Mattis will need to lay the intellectual groundwork to fulfill President Trump's promise of “a great rebuilding” of the United States military. History suggests that how the strategies are developed may be as important to their success as what they say.

Raphael S. Cohen

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The U.S. Military: Between a Rock and a Repulsive Place

There is a reasonable argument that the best route to address pedophilia and other human rights violations by Afghan forces is to remain engaged, and to make U.S. support conditioned upon remediation and accountability, as the Leahy law requires. Others might insist that the U.S. guarantee that not a single taxpayer dollar goes to an Afghan soldier who commits gross violations of human rights.

Jeffrey Eggers

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Russia's New Military Doctrine: Same as the Old Doctrine, Mostly

Russia maintains it will use military force only defensively, when other options have failed. But this is the doctrine of a state that sees a lot to defend against, even as its interests expand globally. The danger is Moscow's view of threats everywhere may prove self-fulfilling.

Olga Oliker

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Yes, Russia's Military Is Getting More Aggressive

As Russia's relations with the U.S. and Europe have deteriorated following Moscow's aggression in Ukraine, fly-bys of European neighbors by Russian aircraft have taken on new urgency. How should the West think about these provocative flights in light of understanding Russia's nuclear threat?

James T. Quinlivan

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Is Obama a Modern-Day Quintus Fabius Maximus?

Critics say President Obama dragged his feet on sending more troops to Afghanistan, on addressing the dangers in Libya, on providing support to Syria's rebels and, most recently, on initiating military action against Islamic State. But is that necessarily such a bad thing?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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An Inconvenient War

Congress has not addressed President Obama's plans to take other military steps against ISIS. Some members of Congress do not want to vote on the use of military force until after the upcoming elections. Among these are some who fear their vote could cost them votes.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Ukraine and the Death of Territorial Integrity

Russia's increasingly brazen violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity threatens to undermine the widely accepted principle that international borders are not subject to further revision, a principle that has contributed to a global decline in interstate war in recent decades.

Bryan Frederick

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War Robots Will Lessen Killing—Not Increase It

Could armed autonomous robots embark on a campaign of indiscriminate killing? John Matsumura says that there is a convincing base of evidence that robots are more likely to prevent slaughter than engage in it.

John Matsumura

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How Would Iran Fight Back?

Iranian leaders are well aware that they cannot defeat the U.S. military in a face-to-face conflict. But as Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel demonstrated, battlefield losses (or draws) can be turned into psychological victories, writes Alireza Nader.

Alireza Nader

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History Shows Danger of Arbitrary Defense Cuts

As America embarks on a tough strategic journey in the aftermath of Iraq, and contends with an ailing economy, it is wise to be mindful of the difference between hope and fact, writes Paula G. Thornhill.

Paula G. Thornhill

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Dueling Doctrines: Mullen vs. Powell? Or Mullen & Powell vs. Rumsfeld?

Reflecting changes in the American approach to counterinsurgency, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen recently enunciated a new and apparently more restrained doctrine for the use of armed force. But is this really a repudiation of the so-called Powell Doctrine, asks James Dobbins.

James Dobbins

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Countering the Military's Latest Fad: Counterinsurgency

When Defense Secretary Gates announced that he was dismissing Gen. McKiernan as the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan and replacing him with Lt. Gen. McChrystal, he signaled his support for an intellectual movement that in a few short years has come to dominate military thinking in Washington, writes Celeste Ward.

Celeste Gventer

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A New National Strategy for Korea: North Korea Threats Require Deterrence, Reconciliation

The new Korean government should fully recognize the North Korean military threats and respond by fielding military counters against dangerous North Korean military capabilities, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Ad Men for U.S. Defense

Improving the U.S. military's brand identity demands more than just a catchy new slogan. While communications can help explain U.S. policies, the behavior of every soldier, sailor, airman and marine is what ultimately determines how civilians view U.S. forces, write Todd Helmus, Russell Glenn and Christopher Paul in a commentary appearing in United Press International.

Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Russell W. Glenn, et al.

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Lessons from the Past for Iraq's Future

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Bruce Hoffman

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Swarming—The Next Face of Battle

Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation as we.

John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt

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Learn the Lessons: Know the Price of Iraq War Before Fighting Erupts

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter

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To Intervene or Not to Intervene

When U.S. policymakers contemplate intervention abroad, they should do so with abundant humility, if not timidity, because of the profoundly uncertain connections between the blunt instruments they can use and the complex ends they seek.

Charles Wolf, Jr.

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A Balance of Mom, Apple Pie and Grand Strategy

Baseball, the least military of team sports, is the most highly attuned to reflecting the classic dilemma of grand strategy.

David Ronfeldt