Military Intelligence

commentary

South Korea Should Consider Sticking with Intelligence-Sharing Pact with Japan

South Korea announced its intent to withdraw from an intelligence-sharing arrangement with Japan. There are four reasons that Seoul should strongly consider reversing course.

Scott W. Harold

blog

Roberta Wohlstetter: A Military Analyst Ahead of Her Time

RAND researcher Roberta Wohlstetter is known for her theory about why the attack on Pearl Harbor took the United States by surprise. Her book was later used as a lens for analyzing the Cuban Missile Crisis and the 2001 terrorist attacks.

commentary

Intelligence Losses Pose Large Risks as U.S. Troops Head Home

Departing theaters such as Syria and Afghanistan carries a host of associated risks, challenges and potential benefits. Leaders would be well served to factor into the debate the importance of U.S. intelligence collection capabilities, its connection to U.S. presence overseas and its role in anticipating current and future threats.

Jason H. Campbell @JasonHCampbell, Javed Ali

commentary

Explaining the Defense Intelligence Agency's Critical Role in National Security

Despite its varied roles and responsibilities, the DIA can be boiled down to just two core missions: intelligence analysis and intelligence collection. Having a better understanding of these core missions could help to properly frame the agency’s value to the intelligence, military, and policymaking communities.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Presidential Intelligence Briefings: The Process Is Working. But Is Trump Listening?

President Trump receives intelligence briefings on a fairly regular basis and he appears engaged in discussions with senior staff and the intelligence community about content. Ideally, this process is informing his national security decisionmaking.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

blog

Mert Davies: All-Star Pioneer of the Cosmos

Merton Davies spent his early years using satellite imagery to spy on terrestrial targets. His work led to the first successful reconnaissance satellite, Corona. Later, he used deep-space photographs to map the planets in our solar system.

commentary

Adapting the President's Daily Brief to Trump

President-elect Trump is receiving President Obama's version of the daily briefing; it has yet to be tailored to his preferences, to which every president is entitled. The intelligence community should seek to adapt the briefing to maximize its interest and relevance to the president-elect.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

ISIS vs Special Ops

However critical to the fight against ISIS, using special operations forces for raids represents only half of the needed military adjustment. The other half is the effort to build indigenous forces capable of taking and holding territory in Iraq and Syria.

Linda Robinson

commentary

Loose Clicks Sink Ships: When Social Media Meets Military Intelligence

Social media updates can reveal military intelligence. But stopping a soldier from posting a geotagged tweet or Instagram photo presents challenges.

Douglas Yeung @DouglasCYeung, Olga Oliker

commentary

Disrupting Terrorist Safe Havens

Disrupting the terrorist safe havens in Syria and Iraq would require a balanced approach that makes the business of terrorist planning and training difficult without entangling U.S. forces in new conflicts and angering the very populations the United States seeks to assist.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

The Downside of Drones

The chief political drawback is that target countries' populations view drone attacks as violations of their sovereignty every bit as much as manned raids. The chief military drawback: A drone attack destroys the critical intelligence that is needed to ensure that the tactical strike can be converted to strategic advantage.

Linda Robinson

blog

Do U.S. Raids in Libya, Somalia Signal a Shift in Terror Strategy?

The raids that the United States conducted over the weekend in Libya and Somalia could signal a new focus in Washington on capturing terrorist suspects and gathering intelligence rather than relying on drone strikes. RAND experts Linda Robinson, Angel Rabasa, and Seth Jones comment.

commentary

Calling for a Time-Out in the Army Intelligence Software Debate

The Army's Distributed Common Ground System (DCGS) program has been getting much attention from Congress, and its future was the subject of a heated exchange between the Army's Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno and Representative Duncan Hunter in May.

Christopher G. Pernin, Isaac R. Porche III

commentary

Learning Curve

The post-Vietnam “never again” attitude led to a severe atrophy of the U.S. military's counterinsurgency skills and it is quite possible that the U.S. military will go through a similar phase of unlearning over the next several years, writes James Dobbins.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

commentary

New 'Rule Book' to Set Parameters for Targeted Killings

A constrictive rule book against direct-action counterterrorism techniques could be in tension with operational realities. But it would go some way toward establishing the legal and ethical framework under which such difficult decisions are made, writes Patrick Johnston.

Patrick B. Johnston

commentary

Do Targeted Killings Work?

When terrorists are afraid to poke their heads above ground, it becomes exceedingly difficult for them to communicate, coordinate, and conduct attacks—especially sophisticated ones like 9/11, writes Patrick B. Johnston.

Patrick B. Johnston

commentary

What Should We Expect of Our Spies?

Questions not asked or stories not imagined by policy are not likely to be answered or developed by intelligence, writes Gregory F. Treverton.

Gregory F. Treverton

commentary

Al-Qaeda after bin Laden

Wary of communicating with each other and with al Qaeda's field commands, al Qaeda central could become more isolated, more dependent on its affiliates, allied groups, and individual acolytes, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Book Review: 'Fallout' by Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz

Anyone concerned about nuclear proliferation or interested in the world of espionage will want to read Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz's provocative new book, "Fallout: The True Story of the CIA's Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking," which tells a fascinating story whose characters come straight out of a spy novel, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Wanted Dead or Alive? When We Don't Get Our Man

On his first day in office, President Barack Obama issued a dramatic series of executive orders intended to symbolize a change of direction in America's "war" on terrorism. Despite the headlines these orders generated, a more significant policy shift may have been the one signaled the week before his inauguration, writes Benjamin Runkle.

Benjamin Runkle

commentary

The Secret Briefing Obama Needs on Day One

A select few Americans will ever see the president's daily brief -- a digest of the intelligence community's most closely guarded secrets. But trust me, Barack Obama is going to need much more useful information than he is getting now, writes Gregory F. Treverton.

Gregory F. Treverton

commentary

Iran's Covert War in Iraq

Published commentary by RAND staff: Iran's Covert War in Iraq, in the Washington Times.

Rick Brennan, Jr. @rickbrennanjr

commentary

Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering

Published commentary by RAND staff: Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering, in the Washington Times.

James B. Bruce

commentary

Lessons for Intelligence in the Campaign Against al Qaeda

Published commentary by RAND staff: Lessons for Intelligence in the Campaign Against al Qaeda, in Vanguard magazine.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

True Intelligence Reform Is Cultural, Not Just Organizational Chart Shift

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Gregory F. Treverton, Peter A. Wilson

commentary

Why Allies Send Spooks to America

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Seth G. Jones

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Intelligence -- a Funhouse of Reflections

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Gregory F. Treverton

commentary

A Perilous Dialogue of Pessimists

Published commentary by RAND staff.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

commentary

Why We Didn't Get the Picture

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Bruce Berkowitz

commentary

Fight Terrorism With Intelligence, Not Might

Fight terrorism with intelligence, not might.

Sara A. Daly

commentary

The Big Difference Between Intelligence and Evidence

Usually intelligence does not offer crystal-clear answers, and we should not hang decisions to go to war or do anything else on its ability to do so, writes Bruce Berkowitz in a Washington Post commentary.

Bruce Berkowitz

commentary

Dissect the Divisions

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Gregory F. Treverton

commentary

Terror's Aftermath: A Counterterrorism Policy for Yesterday's Threat

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Bruce Hoffman

commentary

Intelligence in the Information Age; Spy Data For Sale

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Kevin M. O'Connell