Military Technology

Artificial Intelligence
commentary
AI for Peace
Patrick Roberts
Dec 13, 2019
War on the Rocks
The United States should apply lessons from the 70-year history of governing nuclear technology by building a framework for governing AI military technology. An AI for Peace program should articulate the dangers of this new technology, principles to manage the dangers, and a structure to shape the incentives for other states.
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Fighter Aircraft
commentary
B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Is Handy, but It May Not Be the Perfect Fit
Carl Rhodes @CarlRhodes
Dec 2, 2019
The Australian
Some in the Australian defence community have called for significant changes to the Australian Defence Force structure in response to changing global strategic conditions. Before Australia considers any new long-range strike capabilities, an analysis of alternatives that examines both cost and capability is essential.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
Military Deception: AI's Killer App?
Edward Geist, Marjory S. Blumenthal @marjorysb
Oct 23, 2019
War on the Rocks
Contrary to the promise that AI would deliver an omniscient view of everything happening in the battlespace—the goal of U.S. military planners for decades—it now appears that technologies of misdirection are winning. Military deception, in short, could prove to be AI’s killer app.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
Embrace Open-Source Military Research to Win the AI Competition
Jasmin Leveille
Oct 16, 2019
War on the Rocks
Unless the Pentagon embraces a more open approach to artificial intelligence, it will be left behind. Private sector innovation in this space is too fast. But what are the risks of disseminating potentially sensitive AI technology? And what should not be disclosed?
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
A Code of Conduct for AI in Defense Should Be an Extension of Other Military Codes
Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc
Sep 11, 2019
Friends of Europe's Debating Security Plus 2019 Programme
An AI code of conduct for defense should look a lot like all other defense codes of conduct. A global society that would create the Geneva Convention is a society that believes in a moral code for warfare. This same code could extend into its weaponized algorithms.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
Here's What an AI Code of Conduct for the Pentagon Might Look Like
Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc
Jun 24, 2019
C4ISRNET
Advocates want a code of conduct for how artificial intelligence will be used and oversight to ensure it is being followed. DoD could identify areas where it might use AI in the foreseeable future and set rules and guidelines for business uses, non-lethal military uses, and lethal uses.
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Satellite Communication
commentary
Space Safety Coordination: A Norm for All Nations
Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock
Apr 16, 2019
Small Wars Journal
As space becomes more congested with satellites, the need for every nation to actively participate in the space safety coordination system grows. Most spacefaring countries participate, but a few countries do not—notably, Russia and China. That creates greater potential for collisions and hazards from debris.
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Forecasting Methodology
commentary
How Horizon Scanning Can Give the Military a Technological Edge
Sarah Grand-Clement
Feb 8, 2019
UK MOD Guide to Defence and Security
Horizon scanning could promote innovative practices and innovation uptake, through the adoption of new ideas, equipment, and methods, with benefits that could positively affect the UK economy as a whole. But a wider mechanism for processing and assessing the selected developments would be needed.
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Military Technology
commentary
America's National Defense Strategy and the Paradox of Technology
Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 4, 2019
The National Interest
The need for the military to make greater investments in technology is difficult if not impossible to separate from the risks posed by an increasing military reliance on this technology. Striking a balance between the two won't be easy.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
Does the U.S. Face an AI Ethics Gap?
Benjamin Boudreaux
Jan 11, 2019
RealClearDefense
Instead of worrying about an artificial intelligence “ethics gap,” U.S. policymakers and the military community could embrace a leadership role in AI ethics. This may help ensure that the AI arms race doesn't become a race to the bottom.
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Information Operations
blog
And, By the Way, They Were All Women: RAND Hosts Forum on 21st-Century Warfare Honoring Roberta Wohlstetter
Nov 26, 2018
National security experts, flag officers, and decisionmakers attended the Roberta Wohlstetter Forum on National Security at RAND's Washington office on October 24. The featured speakers, moderators, organizers, donor, and namesake for the event were all women.
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Military Strategy
commentary
Small States Can Use Naval Mines and Unmanned Vehicles to Deter Maritime Aggression
Scott Savitz
Jul 16, 2018
RealClearDefense
Small coastal nations face potential threats from larger, more powerful adversaries. Their coastlines represent vulnerabilities that a foe may seek to exploit. But these nations can hinder and deter potential aggressors by using less expensive systems, such as naval mines and unmanned vehicles.
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Communication Technology
essay
70 Years of Innovation at RAND
May 9, 2018
Seventy years ago, a group of researchers established the independent RAND Corporation. From the first satellite design, to helping ensure GPS as a public good, to laying the groundwork for the internet, RAND has been making a difference ever since.
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Military Strategy
commentary
Cluster Munitions and Rearming for Great Power Competition
David E. Johnson @DaveJohnsonDC
May 9, 2018
War on the Rocks
The United States might need Cluster munitions, anti-personnel landmines, and tactical nuclear weapons to deter or defeat aggression. If policymakers choose to lift bans on these munitions, the ensuing policy restrictions might be tailored to address where these capabilities are necessary.
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Communication Systems
commentary
Our Reliance on Space Tech Means We Should Prepare for the Worst
James Black
Mar 12, 2018
Defense News
Space-enabled connectivity, technology, and services support a diverse array of political, military and economic activities, many of which modern life on Earth relies upon and which the public often takes for granted. How prepared is global society to deal with the growing reliance on this technology and to mitigate associated risks?
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Submarines
commentary
Location, Location, Location: Evaluating Risks to Submarines from Low-Yield Warhead and Submarine Missile Launch Detection
Austin Long
Mar 12, 2018
Lawfare
Experts can argue that a low-yield SLBM might not be worth deploying as it would put U.S. submarines at unacceptable risk. But the costs to adversaries to develop the capability to target U.S. submarines with nuclear weapons are substantial. In contrast, the costs to the United States are low, requiring only modification to an existing warhead.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
A 'Glass Half-Full': Next Steps for Enhancing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Scott Boston, Abby Doll, David Ochmanek, David A. Shlapak
Feb 12, 2018
The RAND Blog
The United States and key allies have taken steps toward redressing the imbalance in military power between NATO and Russia in Northeastern Europe. But NATO's defense planners must be clear-eyed about what remains to be done.
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Cybersecurity
commentary
How the Pentagon Should Deter Cyber Attacks
Christopher Paul, Rand Waltzman
Jan 10, 2018
Strategy Bridge
Foreign hackers are not afraid to launch attacks on the United States in cyberspace that they would not dare risk in a real theater of war. As cyber aggression gets worse and more brazen, the U.S. must figure out how to deter foreign actors in cyberspace as effectively as it does in nuclear and conventional warfare.
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Space Science and Technology
blog
Mert Davies: All-Star Pioneer of the Cosmos
Jan 5, 2018
Merton Davies spent his early years using satellite imagery to spy on terrestrial targets. His work led to the first successful reconnaissance satellite, Corona. Later, he used deep-space photographs to map the planets in our solar system.
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Decisionmaking
commentary
The American Intellectual Property
Timothy Marler
Dec 19, 2017
RealClearDefense
In a continued search for competitive advantage, the United States may be asking the wrong question. Perhaps the question should be, how to most effectively cultivate what is inherent in Americans.
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Information Operations
commentary
Invisible Doomsday Machines: The Challenge of Clandestine Capabilities and Deterrence
Brendan Rittenhouse Green, Austin Long
Dec 15, 2017
War on the Rocks
As the United States increasingly contemplates acquiring clandestine capabilities for deterrence and warfighting, it should consider rethinking its approach to managing these programs. A unified management approach would go a great distance toward meeting the challenges of these capabilities.
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Global Security
commentary
Military Power Cannot Close the Defense Strategy Gap
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr
Oct 30, 2017
War on the Rocks
As defense debates heat up this season, most of the noise will be around how to use defense investments. But it’s time to consider the radical notion that the best answer to strategic insolvency isn’t budgetary. It’s not even military. It is geopolitical and diplomatic.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
Artificial Intelligence and the Military
Robert W. Button
Sep 7, 2017
RealClearDefense
AI has many possible applications for the military, such as providing unpredictable and adaptive adversaries for training fighter pilots. But what are the implications of AI adoption?
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
How Did North Korea Get Its Nuclear Capabilities So Far So Fast?
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Aug 14, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
The recent North Korean missile tests and other provocations have sent shock waves through the global national security community and heightened tensions throughout the region. How has North Korea increased its missile capabilities so dramatically in such a short period of time?
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Military Strategy
commentary
Thinking Constructively About Overmatch
Robert W. Button
Mar 21, 2017
RealClearDefense
To regain military superiority the Pentagon has suggested a strategy that focuses on emerging technologies and deterrence. But it will need more than new technologies to deter and respond to aggression; it should also take into account grand strategy and acquisition considerations and keep countering Russia and China a top priority.
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Military Acquisition and Procurement
commentary
Acquisition in Transition
Irv Blickstein
Feb 21, 2017
RealClearDefense
The DoD acquisition system is complex and ever-changing. It requires a trained and active workforce that has the support of Congress. Allowing some of the reforms to take place in a measured fashion would be a wise choice for the new administration and Congress.
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Military Acquisition and Procurement
commentary
Uncertainty Ahead: Defense Technology and Acquisition Trends in 2017
Cynthia R. Cook @CynthiaRCook
Jan 3, 2017
The Cipher Brief
The change in administration, coupled with the new management structure being imposed by Congress on the Department of Defense's acquisition enterprise is creating a shifting and unpredictable landscape for 2017.
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Cyber Warfare
commentary
America's Cyber Security Dilemma — and a Way Out
Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Dec 22, 2016
Defense One
The United States should continue to pursue international cooperation in cyberspace, improve its ability to identify and expose the sources of attacks, and improve its oversight of the development and adoption of cyber-related technologies.
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Military Technology
commentary
Approaching Future Offsets
Yuna Huh Wong
Dec 21, 2016
The Hill
Grand strategy, acquisitions, and technological considerations may shape the debate about the future of the U.S. military for some time to come. Only where all three elements align are future offsets likely to succeed.
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Military Technology
commentary
DIUx: Capturing Technological Innovation
Cynthia R. Cook @CynthiaRCook
Nov 23, 2016
The Cipher Brief
The Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx) aims to find new sources of advanced technology to give America an edge over potential foes. DIUx is evidence of another form of innovation: organizing in new ways to capture new ideas.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
Killer Robots: Moral Concerns vs. Military Advantages
Colin Roberts
Nov 4, 2016
The National Interest
The U.S. military should balance Americans' ethical concerns over computers making life and death decisions with the need to maintain an edge in the face of rapid advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning across the globe.
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Intelligence Community
commentary
The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence in Intelligence Agencies
Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc
Jul 18, 2016
The National Interest
The defense community has already begun a healthy dialogue about the ethics of AI in combat systems. The intelligence community should develop standards for AI risk assessments and assign responsibility for conducting them.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
How to Overcome the Risks of Artificial Intelligence
Andrew J. Lohn @andrewjlohn, Andrew Parasiliti, William Welser IV
Oct 22, 2015
TIME
The warnings and promises of artificial intelligence aren't new, but advances in technology make them more pressing.
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Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
commentary
Armed Drone Myth 3: Global Proliferation Demands Blanket Restrictions on Sales
Lynn E. Davis, Michael J. McNerney, Daniel Byman
Feb 19, 2015
The RAND Blog
More than 70 countries have acquired drones of different classes and for different purposes. However, the number of countries actually developing
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Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy
commentary
Managing Technology in an Unmanageable World
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Feb 19, 2015
The Hill
The need for purposeful and focused R&D in the U.S. has never been greater, but technology is advancing so quickly that the structures available to manage it have not kept pace. A comprehensive examination of the technological landscape is needed to help the government take a more holistic approach to investing in and regulating technologies.
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Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
commentary
Armed Drone Myth 1: They Will Transform How War Is Waged Globally
Lynn E. Davis, Michael J. McNerney, Daniel Byman
Feb 17, 2015
The RAND Blog
Long-range military drones are fundamentally misunderstood. Their champions wrongly contend they are revolutionizing warfare, while critics fear their spread would greatly increase the threat that China, terrorists, and others pose.
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Military Information Technology Systems
commentary
Decoding the Breach: The Truth About the CENTCOM Hack
David C. Gompert, Martin C. Libicki
Feb 3, 2015
The Mark News
When ISIS hackers hijacked the Twitter account of U.S. Central Command on Jan. 12, they falsely claimed that they had hacked into U.S. military computers. While the incident was embarrassing, it was not concerning in operational military terms. It was, however, damaging to the counterinsurgency against ISIS.
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Transportation Safety
commentary
What if Distracted Driving Was Safe?
James M. Anderson
Jul 1, 2014
The RAND Blog
According to consumer research, the ability to consume media, write an email, or even sleep during transport is a key selling point for autonomous vehicles (self-driving cars), which could be widely available in the fairly near future. Autonomous vehicle technology could also produce a wide range of public benefits.
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Databases and Data Collection, Analysis, and Processing
commentary
How Do We Deal with a Flood of Data?
Isaac R. Porche III, Bradley Wilson, Erin-Elizabeth Johnson
Jun 23, 2014
Future Force
Despite the value of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, the amount of data they generate has become overwhelming. If the Navy does not change the way it processes information, it will reach an ISR “tipping point”—as soon as 2016.
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Border and Port Security
blog
Saving Money by Using Advanced DoD Sensors on the U.S. Border
Dan Gonzales @gonzadan, Laura Patton
Jun 6, 2014
There is no legal reason why a DoD sensor should be excluded from use in an interagency technology demonstration or in an actual counterdrug operation as long as a valid request for support is made by an appropriate law enforcement official and no personally identifiable or private information on U.S. citizens is collected.
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Military Satellites
commentary
Satellites for Rent
Timothy M. Bonds, Isaac R. Porche III
Nov 8, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Reports earlier this year that the U.S. Department of Defense leased a Chinese satellite to support military operations in Africa sparked concern that the arrangement could compromise control over U.S. military communications, or, worse, allow Chinese intelligence gatherers access to privileged military data.
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Military Technology
commentary
War Robots Will Lessen Killing—Not Increase It
John Matsumura
Oct 18, 2013
Christian Science Monitor
Could armed autonomous robots embark on a campaign of indiscriminate killing? John Matsumura says that there is a convincing base of evidence that robots are more likely to prevent slaughter than engage in it.
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Military Information Technology Systems
commentary
Calling for a Time-Out in the Army Intelligence Software Debate
Christopher G. Pernin, Isaac R. Porche III
Aug 21, 2013
The RAND Blog
The Army's Distributed Common Ground System (DCGS) program has been getting much attention from Congress, and its future was the subject of a heated exchange between the Army's Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno and Representative Duncan Hunter in May.
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United States Air Force
blog
A Cybercrisis Is Inevitable — and Manageable
Martin C. Libicki
Jan 9, 2013
The United States can manage a cybercrisis by taking steps to reduce the incentives for other states to step into crisis, by controlling the narrative, understanding the stability parameters of the crises, and trying to manage escalation if conflicts arise.
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Global Security
commentary
Security Strategies for U.S. Diplomatic Compounds
William Young
Sep 19, 2012
The RAND Blog
Going forward, it's clear the security plan for the U.S. diplomatic presence abroad must include well-developed strategies to both detect and prevent an assault like the one in Libya before it occurs, writes William Young.
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Libya
commentary
Can You Hear Libya Now?
Dan Gonzales @gonzadan, Sarah Harting
Mar 4, 2011
New York Times
The U.S. and its allies could help Libyans communicate with the outside world by deploying cellphone base stations on aircraft or tethered balloons, write Dan Gonzales and Sarah Harting.
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commentary
Swarming -- The Next Face of Battle
John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt
Sep 29, 2003
Aviation Week & Space Technology
Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation as we.
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