National Security and Terrorism

commentary

A Tale of Two Wars and the Pitfalls of Success

Russia's war in Ukraine once again poses questions about how the United States prepares for conflict—not only which weapons it buys, but also how it envisions great-power wars in the 21st century. If the United States does learn the lessons of this war, then it may secure the U.S. military's edge for decades to come.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

Preparing for Strategic Competition: The Need for Irregular Warfare Professional Military Education

The Department of Defense does not provide the irregular warfare professional military education necessary for success in competition and conflict in the 21st century. This is a not a new problem, but it is one that may deserve new attention from Congress and the Pentagon.

Charles T. Cleveland, Daniel Egel, et al.

commentary

Japan's Strategic Shift: Significant, but Implementation Hurdles May Await

Japan's new strategic documents appear to demonstrate a recognition in Tokyo that it must do more for its own defense in the face of unprecedented security challenges. The dedication of resources, pursuit of new capabilities, and overarching commitment to a more robust defense are all significant moves that represent landmark change by one of America's key allies.

Jeffrey W. Hornung, Christopher B. Johnstone

blog

Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine, Gun Violence, Migrant Surges: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the United States can help avoid a long war in Ukraine, responding to the gun violence crisis, limits on teachers’ instruction, and more.

commentary

Appreciating U.S. Ground Force Contributions to Operation Inherent Resolve

Defeating ISIS hinged on a ground fight, requiring the grueling liberation of territory kilometer by kilometer. While Iraqi forces bore the brunt of frontline fighting, U.S. forces were also engaged in on-the-ground combat operations that hastened the defeat of ISIS. Appreciating such contributions will be necessary to distill the right lessons so that we might correctly apply them to future irregular warfare.

Jeffrey Martini, Sean M. Zeigler, et al.

commentary

Unlocking Training Technology for Multi-Domain Operations

Multi-domain operations (MDO) can present many challenges for training. Involvement of various disparate organizations and services can exacerbate these challenges and can require balancing centralized coordination with decentralized training objectives. If MDO is to provide new benefits, the training community may need to solve old problems. It may need to communicate more effectively.

Timothy Marler

blog

Regulating Space, Threats to Critical Infrastructure, Psychedelics: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the need for governance in outer space, why the recent FAA system failure was a wake-up call, the changing policy landscape around psychedelic therapies, and more.

commentary

'Strategic Ambiguity' May Have U.S. and Taiwan Trapped in a Prisoner's Dilemma

For its proponents, the idea of strategic ambiguity seems to have become an end in itself that has not adapted, and logically cannot adapt to the disruptive growth in Beijing's military power. The conditions under which the policy worked seem to have evaporated with China's rise. Strategic clarity may offer a way out of this dilemma.

Raymond Kuo @Kuorum1

commentary

How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected

There are predictions aplenty that Russia's war on Ukraine will persist. But it could also end soon. Kremlin regime change, a Russian army collapse, or a Ukrainian win are possible. None of these contingencies should be ruled out.

Peter A. Wilson, William Courtney @courtneywmh

blog

U.S. Gun Laws, China's COVID Outbreak, Space in 2050: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on gun policy in America, the myth of America's “Ukraine fatigue,” the COVID outbreak in China, and more.

commentary

What's Korean About South Korea's Indo-Pacific Strategy?

The Korean Indo-Pacific Strategy may not be a sign of South Korea pivoting or leaning toward the United States over China. That conclusion could present a false dichotomy.

Erik Mobrand

commentary

How Big of a Fleet? A Look at the U.S. Navy's Size and Readiness Needs

Congress is trying to nudge the Navy to expand the size of the fleet. But without comparable levels of funding for personnel, maintenance, technology upgrades, logistics and other support functions, a larger fleet could come at the cost of readiness.

Bradley Martin, Scott Savitz

commentary

Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Could Taiwan Defend with Uncrewed Surface Vessels?

Ukraine has demonstrated the ability of explosive uncrewed surface vessels to target ships. These weapons could play a role in preventing Chinese forces from successfully invading Taiwan in potential future scenarios.

Scott Savitz

commentary

Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy

Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett