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North Africa

Libya
commentary
How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further
Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Jul 7, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.
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Political Reform Movements
q&a
The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson
Aug 23, 2017
It's too early to say whether the Arab Spring will turn out to be a success or not. The Arab Spring was about people deciding what they did not want and rising up against it, but they hadn't worked out what they did want. Many of them still have hope.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Can the Islamic State Survive If Baghdadi Is Dead?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 30, 2017
Foreign Policy
If and when self-declared Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is killed, it will have little effect on the threat posed by the Islamic State to global security. The far more important objective is to continue dismantling the organization as a whole, including its affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Afghanistan.
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Engineers and Engineering
blog
How the Drinking Bird Foiled a Spruce Goose Engineer
Jun 29, 2017
The famous drinking bird toy gave RAND's Dick Murrow an idea that might help Egyptian farmers. But Murrow, who previously led Howard Hughes's Spruce Goose design team, couldn't secure funding to get the concept off the ground.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The U.S.-France Dustup Over Counterterrorism in the Sahel
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jun 23, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
It's time for Paris and Washington to get together with the G5 nations of the Sahel and draft a strategy for achieving shared objectives. The French cannot do it alone or even with the support of the G5 nations. The U.S. would be penny wise but pound foolish to stay aloof or even just uphold the status quo.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
The Diplomat
Being a proactive contributor to peace involves risk if a country is serious about gaining real-world experience. Pulling out of South Sudan deprives Japan's Self-Defense Force of crucial operational experience and sends a confusing message to the United States and the international community.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations
Hans Binnendijk, David C. Gompert
May 2, 2017
The National Interest
Steps are needed to fill the vacuum left as the caliphate collapses, lest forces on the ground turn on each other to gain control. The answer is for NATO to act under U.S. leadership. The alternative is either chaos or Iran, backed by Russia, filling the void.
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Migrants
essay
Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know
May 2, 2017
The countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea are facing unprecedented stress. A former lieutenant with the Italian Navy is now a RAND researcher, working to help others appreciate the scope of the crisis.
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Russia
commentary
What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis, Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Mar 26, 2017
Fortune
Indications that Russia could intervene militarily in Libya's civil war are growing. If it does, the Trump White House will face a tangle of unpleasant choices with far-reaching consequences.
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United States Navy
commentary
Egypt's Suez Canal: An Attenuated Lifeline
Scott Savitz, Paul DeLuca
Sep 14, 2016
The National Interest
The U.S. Navy has enjoyed the luxury of being able to transit the Suez Canal without hindrance for decades. However, the risk of losing access — perhaps quickly and unexpectedly — should inform Navy strategic and operational planning.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
All Eyes on Sirte: Beating the Islamic State, but Losing Libya
Amanda Kadlec @alidraak
Jun 23, 2016
War on the Rocks
At a time when the U.N.-sponsored Government of National Accord could be working to unite Libya's armed groups and promote political stability, it has instead become entwined in the race for Sirte.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Jun 15, 2016
Newsweek
Pessimistically declaring the Arab Spring a failure in 2016 would be as naive as optimistically declaring it a success in 2011. Something comes next—but what?
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 11, 2016
Foreign Policy
If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.
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Tunisia
commentary
Tunisia Is an Arab Spring Success Story
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Apr 21, 2016
Observer
Tunisia has not unraveled into civil war like Syria or Libya. It has not undergone a counter-revolution that returned it to the autocracy of its pre-revolution days, like Egypt has. Tunisia is fragile, but its success is vital to the long-term stability and societal health of the Middle East.
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Middle East
announcement
RAND's Shelly Culbertson Publishes Book on Middle East After the Arab Spring
Apr 19, 2016
A new book by RAND's Shelly Culbertson mixes travel memoir, reporting, and analysis across six Middle Eastern countries, presenting diverse experiences of the Arab Spring.
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
NATO's Southern Exposure: The Real Threats to Europe—and the Alliance
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
Apr 18, 2016
Foreign Affairs
If NATO fails to define a strategy for its southern challenges (terrorism and the ongoing influx of migrants), it could slip into strategic irrelevance.
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Page 1 of 8

North Africa

How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further

The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson

Can the Islamic State Survive If Baghdadi Is Dead?

How the Drinking Bird Foiled a Spruce Goose Engineer

The U.S.-France Dustup Over Counterterrorism in the Sahel

Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal

NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations

Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean: What You Need to Know

What Americans Need to Know if Russia Intervenes in Libya's Civil War

Egypt's Suez Canal: An Attenuated Lifeline

All Eyes on Sirte: Beating the Islamic State, but Losing Libya

It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure

In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...

Tunisia Is an Arab Spring Success Story

RAND's Shelly Culbertson Publishes Book on Middle East After the Arab Spring

NATO's Southern Exposure: The Real Threats to Europe—and the Alliance

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