North Africa

Counterterrorism
commentary
Can Sudan Escape Its History as a Transit Hub for Violent Extremist Organizations?
Peter Chalk, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Colin P. Clarke
Jul 24, 2020
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Sudan continues to confront major challenges that could derail its path back to the mainstream of international politics. Sudan must show that it is no longer a haven for terrorist and violent extremist groups and that it is committed to ensuring that this remains true.
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Air Defense
commentary
Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems
John V. Parachini, Peter A. Wilson
Jul 2, 2020
RealClearDefense
External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.
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Russia
commentary
Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared
Colin P. Clarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh, Bradley Martin, Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock
Jun 30, 2020
Newsweek
Russia is seeking more access and freedom of movement in the Mediterranean region, and is bolstering its military footprint to achieve this objective. The United States and NATO could respond by developing a more robust southern strategy, with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively.
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Libya
commentary
Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?
Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke
Jun 2, 2020
Defense One
The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?
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Gender Equity in the Workplace
commentary
Economic Recovery in Egypt Should Include Women
Louay Constant @LouayConstant
May 11, 2020
United Press International
Despite tremendous strides in educational attainment, women's engagement in the labor force in Egypt remains limited. Will Egypt's post-pandemic recovery further exacerbate structural barriers and inequities? Or could the current economic crisis be an opportunity to develop new opportunities to employ women and foster conditions for a more inclusive and diversified labor force?
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
A Proposed COVID-19 Cure, Economic Decline, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
May 1, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the unintended consequences of a proposed COVID-19 treatment, another wave of economic destruction, North Korea after Kim Jong Un, and more.
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Libya
commentary
Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?
Nathan Vest
Dec 13, 2019
Defense One
Weapons proliferation has been a security concern for Libya and its neighbors since the revolution of 2011. If foreign arms transfers into Libya aren't reduced, the country's security situation will continue to deteriorate, giving militant groups a chance to increase their lethality and further destabilize the region.
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Democracy
commentary
African Dictators Have Been Losing Power—Some to Democratic Governments. Militaries Can Tip the Scales Toward Democracy
Nathaniel Allen, Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes
Sep 16, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Africa's security forces most often make headlines when they commit atrocities, crack down on protesters, or seize power in coups. But Africa's troops can also contribute to democracy and peace when they lay down their arms or refuse orders to turn their guns against the people.
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Counterinsurgency
commentary
Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
David E. Thaler, Yousuf Abdelfatah
Aug 12, 2019
Small Wars Journal
Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.
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Libya
commentary
Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?
Nathan Vest
Mar 27, 2019
RealClearWorld
The Libyan Civil War has largely been contained to pockets of violence. Prolonged battles decimated cities such as Benghazi, Derna, and Sirte, but the majority of the country has been spared large-scale destruction. However, that could change soon.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Migrants
commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Amanda Kadlec, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Sep 25, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
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Political Reform Movements
q&a
The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson
Aug 23, 2017
It's too early to say whether the Arab Spring will turn out to be a success or not. The Arab Spring was about people deciding what they did not want and rising up against it, but they hadn't worked out what they did want. Many of them still have hope.
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Libya
commentary
How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further
Amanda Kadlec
Jul 7, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Can the Islamic State Survive If Baghdadi Is Dead?
Colin P. Clarke
Jun 30, 2017
Foreign Policy
If and when self-declared Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is killed, it will have little effect on the threat posed by the Islamic State to global security. The far more important objective is to continue dismantling the organization as a whole, including its affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Afghanistan.
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North Africa

Can Sudan Escape Its History as a Transit Hub for Violent Extremist Organizations?

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems

Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared

Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

Economic Recovery in Egypt Should Include Women

A Proposed COVID-19 Cure, Economic Decline, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?

African Dictators Have Been Losing Power—Some to Democratic Governments. Militaries Can Tip the Scales Toward Democracy

Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency

Is an Escalation Imminent in Western Libya?

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya

The Post–Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson

How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further

Can the Islamic State Survive If Baghdadi Is Dead?

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