North Korea

Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Feb 6, 2019
The National Interest
It is difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. In September, 2018, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But despite Kim's offer, he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, according to multiple reports. If Kim decides to keep stalling, serious tensions could follow.
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United States
blog
State of the Union 2019: Insights from RAND
Feb 6, 2019
To shed light on a wide range of topics that figured in President Trump's second State of the Union address, we've rounded up insights from some of RAND's objective and nonpartisan research, analysis, and expertise.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Congress Can Save Arms Control
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Greg Thielmann
Nov 27, 2018
The Hill
The Trump administration is seeking agreements with North Korea and Iran to eliminate their nuclear arms potential. Success may hinge on cooperation between the White House and Congress.
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North Korea
commentary
Why North Korea Sanctions Relief Is Inappropriate at This Time
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Nov 26, 2018
NK News
In early 2018, Kim Jong Un signaled that he was ready to negotiate abandoning North Korea's nuclear weapons with the United States. But since then, Pyongyang hasn't taken steps to denuclearize. The DPRK's actions speak louder than its words.
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North Korea
commentary
How America Can Test North Korea's True Intentions
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Nov 26, 2018
The National Interest
While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has suggested he may be prepared to abandon his nuclear ambitions, there has been no proof that he is serious. The United States could take steps to discover Kim's true intentions.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korean Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Oct 11, 2018
Newsweek
Kim Jong Un has regularly promised to denuclearize, but he's been all talk. And this year, North Korea has probably built five to nine more nuclear weapons. There are steps that could make a difference if taken before the North Korean nuclear weapon threat grows any further.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Making Sense of South Korea's Cautious Optimism on North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 24, 2018
Pacific Council on International Policy
South Korea is cautiously optimistic that North Korea will denuclearize, and it hopes that this will lead to the normalization of relations. The vast majority of U.S. observers believe that the North is bluffing. Seoul and Washington should continue to strive for transparency about the future of the peninsula.
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Japan
commentary
Success with North Korea Still Needs Japan
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 27, 2018
The Japan Times
Japan has stakes in the outcome of regional diplomacy involving North Korea. It could play a role far beyond simply writing checks for an agreement, but has not held any bilateral meetings with the other actors. Diplomats hoping to fit their approach to the realities of the geopolitical situation could benefit from Japan's active involvement.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why This Wasn't Kim's Father's—or Grandfather's—Summit
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 13, 2018
Reuters
This is the third time the United States and North Korea have started down a path toward denuclearization and normalization of relations. The difference now is that Trump and Kim have committed themselves earlier on in the process and more publicly than their predecessors did.
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North Korea
commentary
Difficulties Integrating North Korean Defectors Suggest Challenges in Reunifying Korea
Sebastian Joon Bae
Jun 11, 2018
The Cipher Brief
Despite expansive government aid, North Korean defectors in South Korea remain a nation within a nation, co-existent yet separate. If South Korea cannot fully adopt and assimilate 30,805 North Korea defectors, how will South Korea ever embrace roughly 25 million North Koreans in the event of reunification?
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Kim-Trump Summit Rife with Opportunity for U.S.
Michael J. Mazarr
Jun 11, 2018
The Hill
The growing costs of planning for Korean military contingencies place a burden on U.S. defense resources. If Tuesday's summit becomes a step toward eventual guarantees against aggression, the U.S. could remove a major Korean conflict from the top rungs of its defense planning roster, freeing resources for other worries.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Six Lessons for Today from Past Summits
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Michael Haltzel
Jun 5, 2018
Fox News Channel
To prepare for possible meetings with his North Korean and Russian counterparts, President Trump can learn lessons from decades of high-profile summits between U.S. presidents and Kremlin leaders.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
North Korea Is Not Like Libya
Karl P. Mueller
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Canceled Summit Doesn't Spell End to U.S.-North Korea Nuclear Diplomacy
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
May 25, 2018
The Hill
President Trump canceled his June 12 meeting with Kim Jong-un but left the door open for a future one. Successful diplomacy will require tending and fostering U.S. relations with China, Japan, and South Korea while forging an entirely new relationship with North Korea.
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U.S.-European Relations
commentary
The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal
Dalia Dassa Kaye
May 10, 2018
The Hill
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.
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Chemical Weapons and Warfare
commentary
A Norm in Crisis: Implications of Persistent Chemical Weapons Use
Natasha Lander
Apr 18, 2018
RealClearDefense
The international community should consider serious options to hold perpetrators of chemical attacks accountable and stop further attacks. These are not easy choices. But the alternative is accepting that long-held norms are crumbling, and the world is sliding back to a time when inhumane tools of war were common.
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North Korea

Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit

State of the Union 2019: Insights from RAND

Congress Can Save Arms Control

Why North Korea Sanctions Relief Is Inappropriate at This Time

How America Can Test North Korea's True Intentions

North Korean Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words

Making Sense of South Korea's Cautious Optimism on North Korea

Success with North Korea Still Needs Japan

Why This Wasn't Kim's Father's—or Grandfather's—Summit

Difficulties Integrating North Korean Defectors Suggest Challenges in Reunifying Korea

Kim-Trump Summit Rife with Opportunity for U.S.

Six Lessons for Today from Past Summits

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

Canceled Summit Doesn't Spell End to U.S.-North Korea Nuclear Diplomacy

The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal

A Norm in Crisis: Implications of Persistent Chemical Weapons Use

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