Nuclear Deterrence

commentary

Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing

Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?

On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Young-jun Kim

commentary

Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security

Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

North Korea's Version of 'Take Your Daughter to Work Day' Went Out with a Bang—Literally

With the spotlight having long been fixed on the nuclear issue, the public debut of Kim Jong-un's “most beloved” child seems as though it could be an impeccably timed distraction to keep the international community from focusing on seeking an enduring solution to Pyongyang's rapidly advancing weapons systems.

Soo Kim

commentary

Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake

Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?

The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?

The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill

commentary

A Moment of Strategic Clarity

With the Russian mobilization and declared annexation, whatever prospects there were for a negotiated peace seem to have all but vanished. Any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

blog

Veterans Health Care, Media Literacy, Sleep Retreats: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the challenges of VA community care, the importance of improving middle schoolers' media literacy skills, tips to improve sleep, and more.

blog

Back to School, Vaccinating Kids, Space Security: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the well-being of America's educators, the effort to vaccinate kids and teens, security in outer space, and more.

commentary

Three Principles for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security

In his inaugural address in 1998, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung defined three principles for Korean Peninsula peace and security. How might these principles be adjusted to manage today's changing North Korean threats and the Korean security environment?

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Young-jun Kim

commentary

A Renewed Nuclear Deal With Iran: Turning Back the Clock?

Diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran are in Vienna trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015. But even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

blog

RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021

Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.

commentary

North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace

Nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea have hovered at a standstill since 2019. With the door to diplomacy seemingly closed and North Korea marching forward on weapons development and making threatening statements, what are the prospects for Pyongyang's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula?

Soo Kim

commentary

Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is

Nuclear-war strategists' work offers a warning for Congress: The more times a game is played, the more treacherous it becomes, because when both sides believe catastrophe will always be averted in the end, each behaves more rashly. In the debt-ceiling dispute, the United States could end up defaulting precisely because each side keeps waiting for the other to blink.

Edward Geist @sovietologist