Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Jul 14, 2021
The National Interest
The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Diana Y. Myers
Jul 13, 2021
The National Interest
Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.
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Iran
commentary
Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal
Mayumi Fukushima
Jun 28, 2021
The National Interest
History shows that many countries with advanced nuclear technologies but without nuclear bombs opt to stay that way. There are reasons to believe that Iran, too, may choose to remain non-nuclear at least in the foreseeable future.
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North Korea
commentary
Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation
Soo Kim @mllesookim
May 6, 2021
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan
Sayuri Romei
Apr 30, 2021
Asahi Shimbun
As the only country to suffer the horrors of wartime atomic bombings, one would assume Japan would eagerly sign any treaty to ban such weapons. Why hasn't Japan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in January 2021?
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap
Apr 16, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on how the pandemic is shaping demographic trends, targeting vaccines to "high-contact" people, the Iran Threat Network, and more.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Apr 14, 2021
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iran is blaming Israel for a blackout at one of its nuclear research facilities. This attack is likely to complicate nuclear diplomacy and further erode trust between Tehran and Washington. Also, it may only incentivize Iran to advance its nuclear program.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Arms Control Held Hostage
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Dec 28, 2020
The Hill
President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Sep 28, 2020
The National Interest
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
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Democracy
blog
Summer Reading List for Congress
Aug 18, 2020
During the August recess Hill staff should have an opportunity to step back from the fast pace of votes and hearing preparation to examine priorities for the fall and beyond. This list of must-read research and commentary covers some policy issues they will likely be addressing after the break.
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North Korea
commentary
In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Aug 17, 2020
The National Interest
North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Negotiating with Great Powers on Nuclear Arms
Frank G. Klotz, John Lauder, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Aug 3, 2020
RealClearDefense
New START, the U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, expires in February 2021. Washington insists that any follow-on accord must include China. But overcoming Beijing's reticence to engage in nuclear talks will likely take deft diplomacy, time, and patience.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jul 15, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia
Luke Griffith
Jul 1, 2020
RealClearPolicy
By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
commentary
Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Frank G. Klotz
Jun 11, 2020
Newsweek
Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the reliability of the U.S. arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to others to conduct nuclear tests.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom
Soo Kim @mllesookim
May 19, 2020
The National Interest
Kim Jong Un's return, while it leaves much to be desired in the way of explanation, should send one message to the international audience: North Korea's fate rests still in the hands of Kim Jong Un. And judging by appearances in recent days, Kim does not appear to intend to change the course of his strategy to reduce tensions with the United States.
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Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal

Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation

Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan

COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap

The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions

Arms Control Held Hostage

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

Summer Reading List for Congress

In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

Negotiating with Great Powers on Nuclear Arms

An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?

Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia

Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now

North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom

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