Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

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North Korea Is Forcing U.S. Military Counters

If the U.S. military shoots down a North Korean ICBM fired in the direction of the United States and its territories, North Korea will regard it as an act of war. Even in the realm of North Korean rhetoric, this is extreme.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing

Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

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A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea

There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?

Erik Mobrand

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation

If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?

On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Young-jun Kim

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Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security

Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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North Korea's Version of 'Take Your Daughter to Work Day' Went Out with a Bang—Literally

With the spotlight having long been fixed on the nuclear issue, the public debut of Kim Jong-un's “most beloved” child seems as though it could be an impeccably timed distraction to keep the international community from focusing on seeking an enduring solution to Pyongyang's rapidly advancing weapons systems.

Soo Kim

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Nuclear Weapons and Putin's 'Holy War'

Russia's nuclear saber-rattling has shifted the stakes of the war in Ukraine. But enabling Russia's blackmail doesn't prevent the catastrophic costs of nuclear escalation. It merely shifts those costs away from Russia and into the future, inviting other nuclear states to pull the same move for their conquests.

Krystyna Marcinek @KMMarcinek

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Putin's Gambits, Xi Jinping, Machine Learning: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Putin's latest “desperate measures” in Ukraine, support for Xi Jinping, whether machine-learning tools can tell if you're lying, and more.

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Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake

Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

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Legalizing Cannabis, the Russian Nuclear Threat, Digital Offshoring: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on cannabis legalization, the Russian nuclear threat, the effects of digital offshoring, and more.

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Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?

The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?

The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill

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A Moment of Strategic Clarity

With the Russian mobilization and declared annexation, whatever prospects there were for a negotiated peace seem to have all but vanished. Any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

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Veterans Health Care, Media Literacy, Sleep Retreats: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the challenges of VA community care, the importance of improving middle schoolers' media literacy skills, tips to improve sleep, and more.