Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Arms Control Held Hostage
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Dec 28, 2020
The Hill
President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Sep 28, 2020
The National Interest
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
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Democracy
blog
Summer Reading List for Congress
Aug 18, 2020
During the August recess Hill staff should have an opportunity to step back from the fast pace of votes and hearing preparation to examine priorities for the fall and beyond. This list of must-read research and commentary covers some policy issues they will likely be addressing after the break.
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North Korea
commentary
In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Aug 17, 2020
The National Interest
North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Negotiating with Great Powers on Nuclear Arms
Frank G. Klotz, John Lauder, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Aug 3, 2020
RealClearDefense
New START, the U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, expires in February 2021. Washington insists that any follow-on accord must include China. But overcoming Beijing's reticence to engage in nuclear talks will likely take deft diplomacy, time, and patience.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jul 15, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Israeli involvement in recent attacks on Iran would not be surprising, and more such attacks might be coming. However, Israel's bet that the Iranians will not respond is risky. It's hard to control escalation when things are so volatile, especially as hardline Iranian leaders may increase pressure to retaliate.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia
Luke Griffith
Jul 1, 2020
RealClearPolicy
By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
commentary
Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Frank G. Klotz
Jun 11, 2020
Newsweek
Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the reliability of the U.S. arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to others to conduct nuclear tests.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom
Soo Kim @mllesookim
May 19, 2020
The National Interest
Kim Jong Un's return, while it leaves much to be desired in the way of explanation, should send one message to the international audience: North Korea's fate rests still in the hands of Kim Jong Un. And judging by appearances in recent days, Kim does not appear to intend to change the course of his strategy to reduce tensions with the United States.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
May 8, 2020
The National Interest
Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea After Kim Jong Un: 'How' Matters More Than 'Who'
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Apr 28, 2020
Nikkei Asian Review
With rumors swirling that Kim Jong Un has suffered a health crisis, some are already asking who might succeed him as leader of North Korea. But who is not the most important question. What will matter more is what the new regime does to establish its legitimacy and how the United States and its allies respond.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
New START Is Not NAFTA
William Courtney @courtneywmh, John Lauder
Apr 8, 2020
The Hill
The 2010 New START Treaty with Russia reduces long-range nuclear arms. President Trump may seek a different deal, however, as he did in renegotiating NAFTA. But NAFTA talks succeeded because America had predominant leverage and because Canada and Mexico are friends. Neither holds true with Russia.
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Russia
blog
New START, Trump's Middle East Peace Plan, New Tobacco Products: RAND Weekly Recap
Feb 21, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on why the United States should extend the New START agreement, Trump's Middle East peace plan, new tobacco products, and more.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Jumpstarting Arms Control Talks with Russia: A Low-Risk Gambit
Luke Griffith
Feb 13, 2020
Defense One
In 2019, Russia proposed a moratorium on missile deployments in Europe. If the United States does not accept, it could increase the threat to NATO allies and provide Moscow with more bargaining chips in future arms negotiations.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock
Feb 13, 2020
Inkstick
Russia and the United States are still locked in a nuclear cold war. Thousands of nuclear weapons are deployed, some on high alert. Although the United States prudently withdrew from several past arms control treaties with Russia, it could be in America's interest to extend New START.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations with U.S.
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Dec 20, 2019
Nikkei
North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.
Read More »

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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Arms Control Held Hostage

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

Summer Reading List for Congress

In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

Negotiating with Great Powers on Nuclear Arms

An Israeli Escalation Against Iran?

Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia

Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now

North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom

North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization

North Korea After Kim Jong Un: 'How' Matters More Than 'Who'

New START Is Not NAFTA

New START, Trump's Middle East Peace Plan, New Tobacco Products: RAND Weekly Recap

Jumpstarting Arms Control Talks with Russia: A Low-Risk Gambit

Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War

North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations with U.S.

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