Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021
Dec 21, 2021
Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Dec 16, 2021
Prospects and Perspectives
Nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea have hovered at a standstill since 2019. With the door to diplomacy seemingly closed and North Korea marching forward on weapons development and making threatening statements, what are the prospects for Pyongyang's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula?
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Dispute Resolution
commentary
Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is
Edward Geist @sovietologist
Nov 29, 2021
The Atlantic
Nuclear-war strategists' work offers a warning for Congress: The more times a game is played, the more treacherous it becomes, because when both sides believe catastrophe will always be averted in the end, each behaves more rashly. In the debt-ceiling dispute, the United States could end up defaulting precisely because each side keeps waiting for the other to blink.
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North Korea
blog
North Korea, Sexual Violence in the U.S. Military, America's Labor Shortage: RAND Weekly Recap
Nov 5, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on how to deal with a nuclear North Korea, preventing sexual violence in the military, supporting immigrant children in U.S. schools, and more.
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Nuclear Deterrence
blog
Nuclear Deterrence, COVID-19 and Infant Deaths, Criminal Justice Reform: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 22, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on why the United States doesn’t need more nuclear weapons, increased infant deaths during the pandemic, preventing veteran suicide, and more.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Oct 20, 2021
The National Interest
The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.
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Military Strategy
commentary
The U.S. Doesn't Need More Nuclear Weapons to Counter China's New Missile Silos
Edward Geist @sovietologist
Oct 18, 2021
The Washington Post
There's little reason for the United States to worry much about whatever the Chinese military is building in hundreds of new missile silos in China. America and its allies have ways to counter any threats these silo fields pose.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
Soo Kim @mllesookim
Jul 14, 2021
The National Interest
The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Diana Y. Myers
Jul 13, 2021
The National Interest
Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.
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Iran
commentary
Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal
Mayumi Fukushima
Jun 28, 2021
The National Interest
History shows that many countries with advanced nuclear technologies but without nuclear bombs opt to stay that way. There are reasons to believe that Iran, too, may choose to remain non-nuclear at least in the foreseeable future.
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North Korea
commentary
Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation
Soo Kim @mllesookim
May 6, 2021
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan
Sayuri Romei
Apr 30, 2021
Asahi Shimbun
As the only country to suffer the horrors of wartime atomic bombings, one would assume Japan would eagerly sign any treaty to ban such weapons. Why hasn't Japan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in January 2021?
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap
Apr 16, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on how the pandemic is shaping demographic trends, targeting vaccines to "high-contact" people, the Iran Threat Network, and more.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Apr 14, 2021
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iran is blaming Israel for a blackout at one of its nuclear research facilities. This attack is likely to complicate nuclear diplomacy and further erode trust between Tehran and Washington. Also, it may only incentivize Iran to advance its nuclear program.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
Arms Control Held Hostage
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Dec 28, 2020
The Hill
President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo Kim @mllesookim
Sep 28, 2020
The National Interest
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021

North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace

Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is

North Korea, Sexual Violence in the U.S. Military, America's Labor Shortage: RAND Weekly Recap

Nuclear Deterrence, COVID-19 and Infant Deaths, Criminal Justice Reform: RAND Weekly Recap

Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy

The U.S. Doesn't Need More Nuclear Weapons to Counter China's New Missile Silos

Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal

Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation

Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan

COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap

The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions

Arms Control Held Hostage

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

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