Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia
Luke Griffith
Jul 1, 2020
RealClearPolicy
By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
commentary
Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Frank G. Klotz
Jun 11, 2020
Newsweek
Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the continued reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to other countries to conduct nuclear tests of their own.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom
Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
May 19, 2020
The National Interest
Kim Jong Un's return, while it leaves much to be desired in the way of explanation, should send one message to the international audience: North Korea's fate rests still in the hands of Kim Jong Un. And judging by appearances in recent days, Kim does not appear to intend to change the course of his strategy to reduce tensions with the United States.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
May 8, 2020
The National Interest
Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea After Kim Jong Un: 'How' Matters More Than 'Who'
Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Apr 28, 2020
Nikkei Asian Review
With rumors swirling that Kim Jong Un has suffered a health crisis, some are already asking who might succeed him as leader of North Korea. But who is not the most important question. What will matter more is what the new regime does to establish its legitimacy and how the United States and its allies respond.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
New START Is Not NAFTA
William Courtney @courtneywmh, John Lauder
Apr 8, 2020
The Hill
The 2010 New START Treaty with Russia reduces long-range nuclear arms. President Trump may seek a different deal, however, as he did in renegotiating NAFTA. But NAFTA talks succeeded because America had predominant leverage and because Canada and Mexico are friends. Neither holds true with Russia.
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Russia
blog
New START, Trump's Middle East Peace Plan, New Tobacco Products: RAND Weekly Recap
Feb 21, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on why the United States should extend the New START agreement, Trump's Middle East peace plan, new tobacco products, and more.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Jumpstarting Arms Control Talks with Russia: A Low-Risk Gambit
Luke Griffith
Feb 13, 2020
Defense One
In 2019, Russia proposed a moratorium on missile deployments in Europe. If the United States does not accept, it could increase the threat to NATO allies and provide Moscow with more bargaining chips in future arms negotiations.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Bruce McClintock @BHMcClintock
Feb 13, 2020
Inkstick
Russia and the United States are still locked in a nuclear cold war. Thousands of nuclear weapons are deployed, some on high alert. Although the United States prudently withdrew from several past arms control treaties with Russia, it could be in America's interest to extend New START.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations with U.S.
Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Dec 20, 2019
Nikkei
North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
AI for Peace
Patrick Roberts @RamblingRoberts
Dec 13, 2019
War on the Rocks
The United States should apply lessons from the 70-year history of governing nuclear technology by building a framework for governing AI military technology. An AI for Peace program should articulate the dangers of this new technology, principles to manage the dangers, and a structure to shape the incentives for other states.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Understanding Iran's Nuclear Escalation Strategy
Eric Brewer, Ariane M. Tabatabai
Dec 12, 2019
War on the Rocks
Throughout 2019, Iran has gradually reduced its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. What are its goals in doing this? Why has it adopted this strategy? And perhaps most importantly, how far does Iran intend to go?
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Return of Nuclear Doomsday
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Dec 12, 2019
The Hill
Elder statesmen are again warning of nuclear dangers. But have they risen? Maybe, but they remain only faint echoes of Cold War era risks, creating an opportunity to deliberately and carefully take steps to avoid future risks.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
U.S. Economic War on China Weakens Nuclear North Korea, Too
Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Oct 18, 2019
Nikkei Asian Review
An effective way to bend North Korea toward denuclearization may be exerting consistent and targeted pressure on China. Diminishing Beijing's relevance isn't a cure-all. But it could pierce Kim's illusion of invincibility and place him in a bind to make some concessions.
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Submarines
commentary
Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating
John Birkler, Robert Murphy
Oct 1, 2019
The Australian
Whether Australia should operate and maintain nuclear-propelled attack submarines has been debated for years. While controversial to some, the option of nuclear subs in Australia's future fleet may be a useful alternative given trends in the country's security environment.
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Wargaming
essay
A Wargame at RAND Puts Teen Girls in Command
Aug 20, 2019
RAND analysts developed and hosted a wargame to help young women learn firsthand about national security. It's a lesson in strategy, in the hard realities behind news headlines, but also in agility and resilience. In that, it's not so far removed from the daily life of a teenage girl.
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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia

Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now

North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom

North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization

North Korea After Kim Jong Un: 'How' Matters More Than 'Who'

New START Is Not NAFTA

New START, Trump's Middle East Peace Plan, New Tobacco Products: RAND Weekly Recap

Jumpstarting Arms Control Talks with Russia: A Low-Risk Gambit

Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War

North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations with U.S.

AI for Peace

Understanding Iran's Nuclear Escalation Strategy

Return of Nuclear Doomsday

U.S. Economic War on China Weakens Nuclear North Korea, Too

Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating

A Wargame at RAND Puts Teen Girls in Command

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