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Oceania

Oceania
commentary
America's Strategy in Oceania: Time for a Better Approach
Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, Alan Tidwell
Jul 19, 2021
War on the Rocks
China has moved in earnest to engage with Oceania, while the United States is vying to get a toehold in the region. To develop an effective strategy for engaging there, Washington could seek guidance from key allies to better understand their experience, lessons, and efforts already underway.
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China
commentary
The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats
Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga
Jun 29, 2021
The Diplomat
Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Australian and U.S. Military Health Professionals Can Help Address Pacific Island Needs
David Brewster, Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, Beth Grill
May 5, 2021
The Strategist
Australia and the United States can combine their military health capabilities to help improve the long-term health security of Pacific island countries. These partnerships should be carefully planned and focus on enduring engagement.
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Drug Markets and Supply
commentary
Australia Contained COVID-19 Early On. Can It Do the Same with Synthetic Opioids?
Bryce Pardo @brycepardo, Shann Hulme, Jirka Taylor
Apr 30, 2021
The RAND Blog
Australia is at risk of a fentanyl problem, but it is better prepared than North America. If the country can make the same kind of concerted effort it did to keep COVID-19 at bay, that could save thousands of lives.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
What to Expect When You're Expecting So Much from the Quad
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Mar 31, 2021
CNN
In March, the leaders of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia met virtually for their first Quadrilateral Security Dialogue group meeting. What are the goals of the Quad? What tangibly can or will the Quad do and what does it look like in practice?
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Military Ships and Naval Vessels
commentary
Australian Naval Shipbuilding: First Things First
Paul DeLuca, Roger Lough
Jan 22, 2021
Australian Defense
Australia will soon begin production of Attack-class submarines and Hunter-class frigates, ostensibly bringing more than $100 billion in new naval ship construction to domestic industry. While many in political and labour circles see this as a boon for Australian companies, actual domestic spending may be far less than imagined.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Biden Will Inherit Healthy Indo-Pacific Alliances
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 11, 2021
Nikkei Asia
Certainly there is much work ahead as the United States embarks on the next chapter of competition against China throughout the Indo-Pacific. But U.S. alliances and partnerships are in good shape—the result of a growing Indo-Pacific consensus on the existential economic and security threat China poses.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Persistent Security Concerns in an Election Year
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Dec 10, 2020
Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific
The security challenges facing the incoming Biden administration are likely to remain largely the same as those in 2020. The increasing geopolitical, military, and economic heft of the Indo-Pacific region means the United States will likely continue to prioritize this region in 2021.
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International Trade
commentary
RCEP Forms the World's Largest Trading Bloc. What Does This Mean for Global Trade?
Tobias Sytsma
Dec 9, 2020
The RAND Blog
In November, 15 nations signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free-trade agreement of economic and political significance eight years in the making. Why have some heralded RCEP as a landmark agreement?
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Biden Administration Could Benefit from Keeping an Indo-Pacific Focus
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Nov 30, 2020
Nikkei Asia
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden may be poised to reverse many of President Donald Trump's policies, but one that is very likely to remain is the Indo-Pacific strategy. Any changes will probably be stylistic rather than substantive.
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Oceania
commentary
PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 14, 2020
The Diplomat
The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
America's Indo-Pacific Vision Is Becoming a Reality—Because of China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 14, 2020
Nikkei Asian Review
The Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy has received a significant boost in recent months toward achieving its goal of keeping the region “free and open” from Chinese coercion. Ironically, China itself has been doing the boosting.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
America Is Betting Big on the Second Island Chain
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 8, 2020
The Diplomat
The United States has deep and abiding interests in the Second Island Chain. But China's growing influence in the region could complicate U.S. plans. Washington will almost certainly seek to strengthen security cooperation with Pacific Island states in the Second Island Chain and bolster defensive positions on U.S. territories in the region.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Quad Is Poised to Become Openly Anti-China Soon
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 28, 2020
The Wire
What has been striking about the Quad thus far is that it has resisted openly identifying China as the primary target it seeks to rein in. If the Quad is to be sustained, then it will likely have to come to grips with a forward-leaning approach to opposing Chinese activities.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Indo-Pacific Contest: It Could be Time for Fresh Ideas on Allied Security Cooperation
John Blaxland, Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney
Jul 8, 2020
Pacific Forum
U.S. and Australian interests in the Pacific and Southeast Asia face unprecedented challenges from China, and Australia may not be able to handle them on its own. Momentum is growing for heightened cooperation between Australia and the United States.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Japan and Dynamic Force Employment
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 23, 2020
Yomiuri Shimbun
In April, the United States ended a program that maintained a rotational bomber force to the U.S. territory of Guam. While the removal of a permanent bomber presence in the region has caused some in Japan to worry, U.S. commitment to Japan's defense shows no sign of changing nor does America's deterrent capability.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Apr 9, 2020
The Diplomat
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Delayed Chuuk Secession Vote a Win for U.S. Policy in Oceania
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 6, 2020
The Diplomat
In February, the island of Chuuk postponed a referendum vote on secession from the Federated States of Micronesia. At least for the time being, Chuuk's decision is a significant victory in the U.S. diplomatic, economic, and security competition with China in the Pacific Islands.
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Wildfires
blog
Australia's Fires, Artificial Intelligence, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 24, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on Australia's devastating fires, how artificial intelligence could manipulate the masses, the fentanyl crisis, and more.
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Wildfires
commentary
Australia's Fires: Respond Now, but Also Measure Toll on People for the Future
Melissa L. Finucane @MelissaFinucane
Jan 20, 2020
The RAND Blog
As an Australian, Melissa Finucane has watched with anguish as massive bushfires devastated wide swaths of her home country. As a researcher who studies community resilience, she can't help but think of how much blood, sweat, tears, and money will be required to recover.
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China
commentary
What Does Beijing Want from the Pacific Islands?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase
Dec 9, 2019
ChinaFile
China's recent activities in Oceania highlight a formidable two-pronged strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement that Washington and its allies and partners will have to vigorously compete against to maintain their preeminence in the Pacific.
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Fighter Aircraft
commentary
B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Is Handy, but It May Not Be the Perfect Fit
Carl Rhodes @CarlRhodes
Dec 2, 2019
The Australian
Some in the Australian defence community have called for significant changes to the Australian Defence Force structure in response to changing global strategic conditions. Before Australia considers any new long-range strike capabilities, an analysis of alternatives that examines both cost and capability is essential.
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Taiwan
commentary
China Will Struggle to Shut Taiwan Out of the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 3, 2019
The Hill
With the decisions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati to recognize Beijing over Taipei, the list of Taiwan's official diplomatic partners has decreased to 15. But China is likely to have a difficult time eliminating Taiwan's presence diplomatically in the Pacific.
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Submarines
commentary
Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating
John Birkler, Robert Murphy
Oct 1, 2019
The Australian
Whether Australia should operate and maintain nuclear-propelled attack submarines has been debated for years. While controversial to some, the option of nuclear subs in Australia's future fleet may be a useful alternative given trends in the country's security environment.
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International Economic Relations
commentary
Maintaining the U.S. Edge in the Freely Associated States
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase
Sep 3, 2019
East Asia Forum
In the geo-strategically vital region of the Freely Associated States (FAS), China is increasingly competing with the United States for influence. The United States and its allies and partners will need to engage not only with economic aid, but also with other issues including health, economic development, natural disasters, climate change and illegal fishing to sustain a strong partnership with the FAS.
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Gun Violence
blog
Gun Policy, Cannabis, ISIS: RAND Weekly Recap
Aug 9, 2019
This weekly recap looks at gun policy in America, the cannabis market in Washington state, countering an ISIS comeback, and more.
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Gun Violence
blog
Christchurch, Brexit, China and Israel: RAND Weekly Recap
Mar 22, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on the Christchurch shootings, how the UK can improve its post-Brexit prospects, China and Israel's evolving relationship, and more.
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Terrorism
commentary
The Christchurch Massacre Was Another Internet-Enabled Atrocity
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Mar 20, 2019
The Hill
Terrorism has become an internet-enabled abuse—incited, propagated, and sometimes organized and concealed by online activity. Who should be held accountable for abusive content, the author or the publisher? And what role should the government play in regulating it?
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Security Cooperation
commentary
How the U.S. Is Thinking About the Quad
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Feb 7, 2019
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
The United States has been consistent in discussing the security objectives it seeks to promote through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But U.S. interactions with other Quad partners have likely convinced Washington to repackage public presentation of the dialogue proceedings and manage its expectations of what the Quad can realistically achieve.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China—and Now's the Time to Do It
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 22, 2018
Foreign Policy
Even in its resurrected form, the Quad could be in danger of failing to achieve its mission. The Quad might consider getting its house in order by extending dialogue partnerships to ASEAN maritime counterclaimant states.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Is India the Weakest Link in the Quad?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 23, 2018
Foreign Policy
India's sustained membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue would fit with the goal of balancing against China to deter it from further militarizing the Indo-Pacific. But New Dehli may be getting cold feet.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Quad: Second Verse, Same as the First?
Ali Wyne
Jun 15, 2018
The Diplomat
Members of “the Quad”—an informal collaborative arrangement among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia—have proven incapable of adopting either a shared understanding of or unified policies toward China.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Potential of the Quadrilateral
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Feb 22, 2018
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS)
The countries of the Quadrilateral Security Framework are the region's four most capable maritime powers, and are naturally concerned with China's assault on international rules and norms. If ever put in place, the Quad could contribute to the maintenance of security and order in the Indo-Pacific maritime commons.
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Cybercrime
commentary
Gaming Policy in Cyberspace
Michelle Price, Igor Mikolic-Torreira
Aug 23, 2017
Policyforum.net
Hacked devices and intellectual property theft are a rich hunting ground for policy development. The challenge posed by Internet-connect devices is only getting worse as the number of online devices continues to grow.
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Intelligence Community
commentary
Five Eyes at 70: Where to from Here?
Cameron Colquhoun, Bradley Knopp, Arzan Tarapore
Apr 21, 2017
RealClearWorld
The Five Eyes intelligence alliance of the U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand began in the Cold War to meet the threat posed by the Soviet Union. Today, the nations' intelligence communities must contend with domestic terrorism and cyber threats while remaining ahead of Russia and China.
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Intelligence Collection
commentary
Three Ways to Improve Australia's Intelligence Capability
Arzan Tarapore
Apr 4, 2017
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
Intelligence agencies should become centers of expertise, focus on what matters for their customers, and coordinate a network of partners. To better deliver on these three priorities, the Australian Intelligence Community should consider a leadership structure with authority to guide and coordinate these processes.
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Domestic Violence
commentary
Domestic Violence as a Way of Life: The Reality for Papua New Guinea's Women
Mahlet Atakilt Woldetsadik
Dec 31, 2014
The RAND Blog
Violence against women is a persistent problem around the world. That's particularly true of Papua New Guinea, where abuse of women by domestic partners, gang members, and members of law enforcement is widespread, drawing comparisons to conditions in conflict zones.
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Australia
blog
Could the Sydney Cafe Siege Happen Elsewhere?
Dec 17, 2014
As the world mourns those lost in the Sydney cafe siege, investigations have begun examining the efficacy of Australia's anti-terrorism measures and details about the background and motives of the gunman. At the same time, terrorism experts are reflecting on where else such an attack could emerge.
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Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy
commentary
Measuring Impact: How Australia and the UK Are Tackling Research Assessment
Catriona Manville
Dec 8, 2014
The Guardian
The UK is the first country to attempt to allocate funding based on the wider societal impact of research, and in 2012, a subset of higher education institutions in Australia ran a small-scale pilot exercise to assess impact and understand the potential challenges of the process. What can be learned by comparing the UK and Australian approaches?
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Defense Infrastructure
commentary
Should the U.S. Move the Marines to Guam?
Michael J. Lostumbo
Feb 28, 2014
The Diplomat
The option to permanently base Marines on Guam should hinge on the benefits of the location and the costs. Guam scores poorly on both counts and better options exist. However, previous guidance provided to the Marine Corps constrains consideration of such options.
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Military Strategy
commentary
Paths to Victory in the Australian Defence and Security Context
Christopher Paul
Oct 2, 2013
The Strategist
The historical importance of commitment and motivation and the need to overmatch insurgents suggest that Australia should weigh any commitment of support against existing conditions, those that can be changed and those that can't, writes Christopher Paul.
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Global Climate Change
commentary
Green Buildings, Jobs and Summits
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Sep 25, 2009
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
If the United States is to be a global competitor in green building technology, it needs to learn from some of the countries that are at the table in Pittsburgh this week, writes Charles Ries.
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commentary
The New Politics of the Pacific Sends Shudders Through Australia
Robert E. Hunter
Jul 24, 2000
Los Angeles Times
Like everyone else concerned with Asia, Australia also is taking a hard look at China's future, as well as at Washington's approach to it. It's not clear that Canberra and Washington see eye to eye.
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