Oceania

commentary

Is Australia's Defense Strategy Based on a Mistaken Assumption?

The concept of ”impactful projection“has become a topic of heightened interest in the Australian strategic discourse, as pundits wait on further information from the Defense Strategic Review. But is the concept underpinned by a fundamentally mistaken assumption?

Marigold Black, Austin Wyatt

commentary

New Zealand Is Done with Speaking Softly to China

In three short years, New Zealand has gone from saying next to nothing about China to saying quite a lot. What has prompted New Zealand to suddenly take a firmer stand on China?

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

America's Pacific Island Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The United States hosted its first Pacific Islands Summit in September. Pacific Island leaders and observers from over a dozen states participated in the event and pledged to jointly tackle various challenges. But this historic summit was hardly an absolute success, and should be put within its proper context.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Strategic Advantage, Sovereignty and Australia's Geopolitical Identity

In Australia, which has experienced few national existential crises, there appears to be little understanding of or consideration given to all the nuanced contours of winning. Australia may need to critically assess its strategic traditions to develop a broader conceptualization of how to secure the safety and well-being of the nation and position itself advantageously.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

commentary

The Indo-Pacific Mostly Backs 'One China,' but Taiwan Gets Some Love, Too

Almost the entire Indo-Pacific region backs China over Taiwan. But U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August trip to Taiwan made it clear that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan's cause, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island. This suggests that Beijing's assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

China's Pacific Push Is Backfiring

Beijing has had only limited success in spreading its influence in the Pacific, with the notable exceptions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati. To be sure, other victories should be expected to follow. The overall picture, however, is far more challenging for China.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine May Harden U.S. Indo-Pacific Allies

The effects of Russia's war against Ukraine stretch worldwide as countries watch Ukraine's unfolding tragedy to glean possible lessons for their own security. Understanding how Australia and Japan are perceiving the conflict could be critical for allied strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Jeffrey W. Hornung, Hayley Channer

blog

Russian Mercenaries, Online Extremism, the Commercial Space Market: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Russia's use of mercenaries, understanding how extremist movements operate online, trends in the commercial space market, and more.

commentary

Why Most of the Indo-Pacific Tiptoes Around Russia

Since the start of Russia's increasingly brutal war in Ukraine, the West has ramped up pressure on the rest of the world to condemn Moscow's belligerence and join sanctions against Russia and its regime. In the vast Indo-Pacific region, however, the West's message has fallen flat.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Making AUKUS Work

In September 2021, President Biden announced the creation of AUKUS, a trilateral, experimental arrangement among the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom focused on defense technology. The barriers to success are numerous but the partnership could offer significant opportunities.

Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, Alan Tidwell

commentary

Not So Quiet on the Southern Front

Australia faces stiff geopolitical competition in Antarctica, and it's not just China and Russia with eyes on the prize. If the Antarctic becomes a hub of geopolitical tension, Australia may need to revise its strategy.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

commentary

The Definition of Mobilisation

In Australia, the prevailing view of mobilisation is that it is an activity associated with going to war. But it should also include preparing for, and where possible, preventing a range of potential hazards, as well as supporting subsequent recovery efforts.

Joanne Nicholson, Marigold Black, et al.

commentary

America's Strategy in Oceania: Time for a Better Approach

China has moved in earnest to engage with Oceania, while the United States is vying to get a toehold in the region. To develop an effective strategy for engaging there, Washington could seek guidance from key allies to better understand their experience, lessons, and efforts already underway.

Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, Alan Tidwell

commentary

The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats

Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

commentary

Australian and U.S. Military Health Professionals Can Help Address Pacific Island Needs

Australia and the United States can combine their military health capabilities to help improve the long-term health security of Pacific island countries. These partnerships should be carefully planned and focus on enduring engagement.

David Brewster, Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney, et al.