Petroleum

commentary

Navigating Speed Bumps to a Possible Federal Vehicle Miles Traveled Fee

It's been clear for years that the gas tax has been losing its ability to pay for America's existing roads and bridges, let alone improvements and new construction. A vehicle miles traveled fee could provide a potential option for a 21st-century transportation funding system.

Liisa Ecola, Laura Patton

commentary

Overlapping Environmental Disasters Put a Strain on Gulf Communities

For Gulf Coast residents, dealing with the impact of the Deepwater Horizon disaster is challenging enough. With the Taylor Energy spill, they may face an even more daunting recovery, one that could take decades. Acknowledging the extent and complexity of recovery is the first step toward supporting coastal communities to build their resilience in the face of overlapping disasters.

Melissa L. Finucane

commentary

Could America Use Its Leverage to Alter the Saudis' Behavior?

As the Saudis' chief political and military partner and the undisputed security guarantor in the Middle East, the United States has considerable influence it can wield over Saudi decisionmaking. The Trump administration could consider using its influence to encourage Saudi leadership to moderate its assertive and damaging policies abroad.

Ariane M. Tabatabai, Becca Wasser

q&a

Oil, Extortion Still Paying Off for ISIS

ISIS's oil revenues declined from a peak of $40 million per month in 2015 to $4 million per month as of early October 2017. Despite the massive reduction, it's still a substantial amount of money for a group whose expenditures decrease with the size of the population and territory it controls and decreased recruitment.

commentary

King Salman and Putin Deals Leave the U.S. Out in the Cold

Riyadh plans to invest in Russian energy assets and possibly arms. The deals will lead to the manufacture of arms in Saudi Arabia and likely the transfer of military technology. These agreements thwart the U.S.- and EU-led sanctions regime and send an important signal to Washington.

Becca Wasser, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

commentary

How the Gulf Row Could Tear Libya Apart Even Further

Since Gadhafi was removed from power, Gulf nations have been vying for position in Libya through proxy forces to influence political outcomes. Libya's rival militias — armed and funded by their respective Gulf sponsors — set the framework for the civil conflict that erupted in 2014 and continues today. Current tensions between Qatar and its neighbors are adding to the instability.

Amanda Kadlec

commentary

Cutting the Islamic State's Money Supply

Airstrikes have hit ISIL tanker trucks, oil fields, refineries, and banks, but it would be a mistake to view the group as a poor man's version of its old self. New steps are needed to counter its multi-million dollar taxation and extortion machine.

Eric Robinson @RobinsonEricD

commentary

Crude Economics, Crude Politics: Who Wins and Who Loses with Cheap Oil?

What is the outlook for oil prices? And how can we assess the balance between positive effects on national security and negative effects on the national economy?

Charles Wolf, Jr.

commentary

What Will Happen After the Oil Export Ban Is Repealed?

Without the crude oil export ban, producers could sell their product abroad without discounting it, and the Gulf Coast refineries could specialize in the heavier oil for which they are optimized. On the whole, the global refining industry would likely enjoy efficiency gains.

Keith Crane, Nathaniel Lutovsky

commentary

Why Selling Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Is a Bad Idea

Some lawmakers are proposing a sell-off of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to finance highway and bridge work. This is a shortsighted strategy.

Keith Crane

commentary

How to Improve Oregon's Mileage-Fee Experiment

Oregon is rolling out the nation's first large-scale pilot to examine switching to a mileage fee instead of the gas tax. The trial is a welcome next step toward understanding how mileage fees can be deployed.

Liisa Ecola, Laura Patton

commentary

Peacetime Fuel 'Tankering' Could Save $25 Million Per Year

Fuel tankering involves carrying excess fuel on an aircraft when flying from origins where fuel is less expensive than at the destination. Tankering fuel to a conflict zone such as Afghanistan is almost always cost-effective, but the story is more complex in other regions because of the way fuel is purchased and resold within the DoD itself.

Christopher A. Mouton

commentary

Oil Bonanza: Good News for the World

World oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since June 2014 and over the next several years prices are more likely to fall than to rise. The global economy will benefit hugely from this shift, and it's possible that global security will also benefit from lower oil prices.

Charles Wolf, Jr.

commentary

ISIS Aims to Occupy Mecca

As ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi reaches for control of the holy sites in and around Mecca and Medina and the wealth that comes with them, the U.S., NATO, and others should consider providing significant equipment and know-how to shore up the border defenses of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan.

William Young

commentary

Can Eurasian Energy Compete?

Cheaper oil, government interference, and market dynamics jeopardize the future of Russian and Caspian energy. To be globally competitive, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan should let the private sector play a greater role and make more decisions on commercial, rather than political grounds.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Richard Kauzlarich, et al.

commentary

The Upside of Lower Oil Prices

Movement toward sharply lower oil prices should be a prominent component of any strategy directed at disabling many of the world's most disruptive threats: Iran's nuclear development, ISIS, Hamas attacks on Israel, and Russia's threat to Ukraine.

Charles Wolf, Jr.

blog

What Mobility Might Look Like in the U.S. in 2030

Mobility — the ability to travel from one location to another — may look very different in the United States in the year 2030. Three key drivers differentiate possible scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulations, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures.

blog

Using Air Power Against Pirates Off West Africa

A U.S. Official has confirmed that two mariners thought to be U.S. Citizens were kidnapped from an American ship in a pirate attack off of the West African coast — the 40th such attack reported in the Gulf of Guinea in 2013. The current security situation in the Gulf has affected petroleum and natural gas production.

commentary

Paying for Infrastructure, a Taxing Issue

If the user pays idea is worth saving, the United States needs a different calculation, writes Liisa Ecola. Some states are looking at mileage fees. With mileage fees, you pay based on the number of miles you drive, rather than the number of gallons of gas used.

Liisa Ecola

commentary

Prices Will Still Be Dictated by World Markets and the Middle East Will Continue to Bedevil Policymakers

Even if the United States no longer imports oil from the Middle East, the United States will still be vulnerable to oil price shocks driven by developments in the Middle East, writes Keith Crane.

Keith Crane

commentary

Assessing the Iranian Sanctions

The sanctions have imposed economic costs and have effectively signaled that not only the United States, but much of the rest of the world, see Iran's policies on nuclear enrichment as a serious potential threat to the region and the world, writes Keith Crane.

Keith Crane

blog

U.S. Military's Role with Petroleum Is to Assure Security

When the U.S. Department of Defense purchases oil, it has almost no effect on world oil prices, according to new RAND reports. That means reducing fuel consumption is the only effective way for the Pentagon to cut its petroleum expenses.

commentary

Among Potential Deficit Remedies, Don't Rule Out Raising Gas Tax

A proposed 15-cents-a-gallon gas tax is worth a second look. Among various painful options put forward in the Deficit Reduction Commission's draft report, this tax hike may be well justified, write Martin Wachs.

Martin Wachs

commentary

The Future of Transportation Finance: A New Generation of User Fees

The principle of paying for roads and transit by charging those who use the system has served our nation well, but in its current form it will soon outlive its usefulness, writes Martin Wachs.

Martin Wachs

commentary

On Carbon Dioxide, a Better Alternative

A carbon dioxide tax with refund is fair because the people responsible for the most emissions would pay the most. The tax would also be progressive. Many Americans with lower incomes would find the refund would more than defray the higher costs of gasoline and electric power, write Keith Crane and James Bartis.

Keith Crane, James T. Bartis

commentary

Paying for Our Transportation Needs

Published commentary by RAND staff: Paying for Our Transportation Needs, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Martin Wachs

commentary

Fueling Opportunity

Published commentary by RAND staff: Fueling Opportunity in the Washington Times.

John D. Graham

commentary

Katrina Shows Supply Chain Needs National Attention

Published commentary by RAND staff: Katrina Shows Supply Chain Needs National Attention in the Los Angeles Business Journal.

David S. Ortiz, Henry H. Willis @HenryHWillis

commentary

Iraqi Oil and the Global Economy

If Saddam Hussein is ousted as leader of Iraq, the United States will face critical decisions about the future of the world's second-largest oil reserves, writes policy analyst James Bartis.

James T. Bartis