Saudi Arabia

commentary

Implementing Arab Gulf Reconciliation

As the Arab Gulf states prepare to engage with a new U.S. administration, their recent reconciliation announcement offers an opportunity to advance their interests as well as mutual interests with the United States. But the Gulf states' intent to end their feud will very likely not be sufficient unless the agreement is deepened through confidence-building measures and expanded by reaching a parallel understanding with Turkey.

Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Iran, the Unitary State

Current and future U.S. policy toward Iran must begin with the premise that the Islamic Republic is the sum of its parts and that to try to empower moderates or disempower hard-liners is naive. Rather, Washington should strive to deal with Iran as it is, not as Washington wishes it were.

Afshon Ostovar, Ariane M. Tabatabai

blog

Saudi Arabia, Border Troops, China's Military: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to deter aggression abroad, examining the need for U.S. troops at the border, China's aerospace capabilities, and more.

commentary

Could America Use Its Leverage to Alter the Saudis' Behavior?

As the Saudis' chief political and military partner and the undisputed security guarantor in the Middle East, the United States has considerable influence it can wield over Saudi decisionmaking. The Trump administration could consider using its influence to encourage Saudi leadership to moderate its assertive and damaging policies abroad.

Ariane M. Tabatabai, Becca Wasser

commentary

Is Major Realignment Taking Place in the Middle East?

The shifting alignments in the Middle East have intensified since the murder of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. Turkey has drifted away from NATO and toward Iran and Russia. Like Tehran and Moscow, Ankara is now more anti-Western than at any point in recent memory. What does this mean for the United States?

Colin P. Clarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai

commentary

The Khashoggi Case and the Cost of Subcontracting U.S. Policy

Following the killing of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the United States needs to, at minimum, return toward a distinctly American policy toward the Middle East, one which can be distinguished from that of its local partners.

James Dobbins

commentary

Expanding the ISIS Brand

Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Saudi Arabia and Iran May Be Headed Toward War

America should encourage Tehran and Riyadh to settle their differences, not facilitate aggressive Saudi action. Otherwise, the region will be plunged into an even bigger crisis—without an end in sight.

Alireza Nader

commentary

Saudi Shakeup Gives the U.S. an Opening with Iran

If Saudi Arabia forces a showdown with Iran, the U.S. will find itself in the middle of it. Washington and Tehran need to come to an understanding so as not to further inflame the region. Demonizing Iran for all the ills of the Middle East is counterproductive and will lead to further escalation.

Amir Handjani, Alireza Nader

commentary

King Salman and Putin Deals Leave the U.S. Out in the Cold

Riyadh plans to invest in Russian energy assets and possibly arms. The deals will lead to the manufacture of arms in Saudi Arabia and likely the transfer of military technology. These agreements thwart the U.S.- and EU-led sanctions regime and send an important signal to Washington.

Becca Wasser, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

commentary

Female Drivers Can Put Saudis on Road to Enhanced Growth

Allowing women to get behind the wheel will likely lead to significant long-term changes in Saudi Arabia's economy and the participation of women in the labor force.

Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson

commentary

State Competition, Not Sectarianism, Key Driver of Middle East Politics

Sectarianism is real and dangerous in the Middle East, but the region is more complicated. The next leaders in Iran and Saudi Arabia, under pressure from youthful populations and worsening economic challenges, may no longer see value in a costly sectarian agenda.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

commentary

Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides

Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jeffrey Martini

commentary

A Persistent and Resilient Adversary: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

The history of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula catalogues every dimension of frustration in combatting terrorism. But is it possible that the United States and its Gulf allies are finally getting the measure of AQAP?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Is the Surge in Terrorist Attacks Coincidence or Coordinated Campaign?

Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed (or ignored) to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

The Next Generation of Leaders in the Gulf

The face of leadership in the Persian Gulf is getting younger. There are reasons not to assume that the Gulf's young leaders will gravitate to democratization. But their rise does provide an opportunity for a much-needed update to U.S. strategy in the region.

Becca Wasser, Jeffrey Martini

commentary

Saudi-Iranian Tensions

The nuclear accord between Iran and the United States has induced a sense of abandonment in Riyadh. The Saudis may fear that Washington might one day replace its alliance with Saudi Arabia with a new partnership with Iran; or perhaps more realistically, that Washington might come to depend less on Riyadh given improving ties with Iran.

Alireza Nader

commentary

Peace in the Middle East: America's New Post-Iran Deal Challenge

It is no surprise that the final Iran nuclear deal was met with opposition in Israel and Saudi Arabia. For all the talk about whether or not this is a good deal, negotiating with Iran was the original sin from their perspective.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jeffrey Martini

q&a

The Iran Nuclear Deal: RAND Experts Answer Questions About the Days Ahead

Diplomats have reached a nuclear agreement with Iran. Now, the United States faces important policy decisions that will help shape the days ahead and the relationship that emerges between Iran and the other parties involved.

commentary

What Pakistan and Saudi Arabia Want from Each Other

Whatever overlapping interests they may have in dangerous groups like Lashkar-e Taiba, the Saudis and Pakistanis have much bigger reasons for seeking each other's friendship. These reasons may be largely transactional, but the transaction has been a mutually beneficial one for nearly 40 years.

Jonah Blank

commentary

Yemen: Victim of the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry

Instability in Yemen does not benefit Iran, Saudi Arabia, or the United States. AQAP is a major threat to all three countries. And neither side in the Yemeni conflict has the capability to impose central authority in Yemen by itself.

Alireza Nader

commentary

Relax, Iran Is Not Taking Over the Middle East

Nuclear negotiations should not be held hostage to all of the things Iran may be doing right or wrong. The conflicts in the Middle East are much more complex than 'Iran on the march' theories would have us believe.

Alireza Nader

commentary

ISIS Aims to Occupy Mecca

As ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi reaches for control of the holy sites in and around Mecca and Medina and the wealth that comes with them, the U.S., NATO, and others should consider providing significant equipment and know-how to shore up the border defenses of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan.

William Young

commentary

The Tortured Roots of Sectarian Violence

The recent increase of sectarian terrorism is best understood as a product of the ancient Sunni-Shiite divide, the growth of modern-day extremist groups, the Iranian-Saudi rivalry, and the growing phenomenon of fractured states.

Rick Brennan, Jr. @rickbrennanjr

commentary

Ignore Flap Over Obama Letter

While it is not surprising that the alleged letter from President Obama to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has upset domestic critics of the nuclear negotiations, the alleged correspondence has also unsettled Israel and Saudi Arabia, which fear a 'bad' deal with Iran and even secret collusion between Washington and Tehran. But such concerns seem unfounded.

Alireza Nader

commentary

Facing Syrian Realities

President Barack Obama’s upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Abdullah offers an opportunity to engage in a much needed dialogue about the future of the conflict in Syria and to hear what a strong ally and friend has to say about stability in the region.

William Young

commentary

A First Step in Geneva

The Geneva agreement is only a first step toward a comprehensive deal but it is an important achievement. Iran's ability to move toward a nuclear weapons breakout capability has been halted in return for limited sanctions relief.

Alireza Nader

commentary

The Geneva Blame Game

Iran and the P5+1 (the U.S., Britain, France, China, and Russia plus Germany) came tantalizingly close to reaching a nuclear deal this past weekend in Geneva, but the talks ended without an agreement. Although both Iran and the United States expressed optimism that much was achieved, a blame game between the different players soon ensued.

Alireza Nader

commentary

The Mirage of the Arab Spring

Like it or not, the United States counts among its allies a number of authoritarian Arab countries, and they are essential partners in protecting its interests, writes Seth G. Jones. The normative hope that liberal democracy may flourish in the future must be balanced by the need to work with governments and societies as they exist today.

Seth G. Jones

commentary

Saudi Arabia: Shi'a Pessimistic About Reform, but Seek Reconciliation

Saudi Arabia: Shi'a Pessimistic About Reform, but Seek Reconciliation in Arab Reform Bulletin

Frederic Wehrey

commentary

How Iraq's Neighbours Can Steer It Away From Destruction

Published commentary by RAND staff: How Iraq's Neighbours Can Steer It Away From Destruction, in the Financial Times.

David Aaron

commentary

The Threat of Oil Jihad

Published commentary by RAND staff: The Threat of Oil Jihad, in United Press International.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins