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International Trade
commentary
Russia Engine Troubles: Is Putin's Behavior Catching Up with Him?
Chandler Sachs, John V. Parachini
Jun 15, 2021
The RAND Blog
Actions taken to curb Russian malign activities around the globe appear to be affecting Russia's marine and aerospace engine sector. Efforts to arrest Russia's bad behavior might gain momentum if more countries followed the lead of Norway, which chose supporting sanctions over short-term economic gain.
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Military Strategy
commentary
The Suez Grounding Was an Accident. The Next Blocked Chokepoint Might Not Be
Scott Savitz
Mar 30, 2021
Defense One
The recent spectacle of a hulking container ship wedged into the Suez Canal is a reminder of how vulnerable maritime transportation is to blocked chokepoints. The fragility of maritime lifelines may encourage the use of this tactic in future conflict.
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Military Ships and Naval Vessels
commentary
Australian Naval Shipbuilding: First Things First
Paul DeLuca, Roger Lough
Jan 22, 2021
Australian Defense
Australia will soon begin production of Attack-class submarines and Hunter-class frigates, ostensibly bringing more than $100 billion in new naval ship construction to domestic industry. While many in political and labour circles see this as a boon for Australian companies, actual domestic spending may be far less than imagined.
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Submarines
commentary
Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating
John Birkler, Robert Murphy
Oct 1, 2019
The Australian
Whether Australia should operate and maintain nuclear-propelled attack submarines has been debated for years. While controversial to some, the option of nuclear subs in Australia's future fleet may be a useful alternative given trends in the country's security environment.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
How Not to Compete in the Arctic
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard
Feb 27, 2019
War on the Rocks
The Arctic defies simplistic views of geopolitical friends and foes. The United States and its allies do not necessarily agree on key issues, while U.S. strategic competitors might find common ground with America. The United States could fine-tune its defense policy tools in the Arctic to ensure that its actions do not hamper relations with allies and shore up the position of adversaries.
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commentary
Does Japan Need an Aircraft Carrier?
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Oct 5, 2018
Defense One
Japan has not possessed an aircraft carrier in more than 70 years. But that may soon change as the Japanese government is debating retrofitting a class of destroyers to turn them into aircraft carriers. Considering both operational needs and resources limitations, does an aircraft carrier for Japan make sense?
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Military Strategy
commentary
Small States Can Use Naval Mines and Unmanned Vehicles to Deter Maritime Aggression
Scott Savitz
Jul 16, 2018
RealClearDefense
Small coastal nations face potential threats from larger, more powerful adversaries. Their coastlines represent vulnerabilities that a foe may seek to exploit. But these nations can hinder and deter potential aggressors by using less expensive systems, such as naval mines and unmanned vehicles.
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Submarines
commentary
Location, Location, Location: Evaluating Risks to Submarines from Low-Yield Warhead and Submarine Missile Launch Detection
Austin Long
Mar 12, 2018
Lawfare
Experts can argue that a low-yield SLBM might not be worth deploying as it would put U.S. submarines at unacceptable risk. But the costs to adversaries to develop the capability to target U.S. submarines with nuclear weapons are substantial. In contrast, the costs to the United States are low, requiring only modification to an existing warhead.
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Ballistic Missiles
commentary
Discrimination Details Matter: Clarifying an Argument About Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads
Austin Long
Feb 16, 2018
War on the Rocks
Nuclear forces and nuclear strategy are complex and the facts surrounding them are often shrouded in classification. But if the United States were to deploy a low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead in the future, an adversary would face the same problems as it does today in knowing what the missile contains.
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China
q&a
Enhancing China's Status as a Great Power
Aug 1, 2017
The Cipher Brief
China is investing heavily in its military modernization program as it aims to extend its power in the region as well as globally. How will China's growing ability to project power affect U.S. regional goals?
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
The Hidden Potential of NATO's Gator Navies
Gregory DeMarco, Gene Germanovich @geneDC
Mar 17, 2017
Defense One
Improving U.S.-European amphibious interoperability would bolster the alliance's defense posture in a non-provocative manner that complements recent moves in land forces. The 2017 Summit in Brussels presents an opportunity to refine allied ground posture while adding this maritime dimension.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
The Era of Coast Guards in the Asia-Pacific Is Upon Us
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Mar 8, 2017
Asia Maritme Transparency Initiative
Coast guards, not navies, are the new asset of choice in East and Southeast Asia to assert sovereignty over disputed waters. China has been expanding its coast guard fleet and many states, like Vietnam and the Philippines, lack the funds to match it.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
The New 'Normal' in the East China Sea
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Feb 27, 2017
The Diplomat
China and Japan are engaged in a long-term test of wills over disputed waters and territory in the East China Sea. The Japanese government has acknowledged the challenge it faces and has begun to invest in infrastructure and personnel projects to address it.
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Taiwan
commentary
History and Current Developments Regarding Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Feb 15, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
As Asia-Pacific countries develop policies to regulate maritime zones of jurisdiction, the importance of coast guards as instruments of state policy has been growing. Taiwan's Coast Guard is an increasingly effective force.
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Military Ships and Naval Vessels
commentary
South Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Chinese Fishing, with Violent Results
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Nov 4, 2016
The Diplomat
In the Yellow Sea and elsewhere, Chinese fishermen have shown an increasing willingness to challenge attempts by coast guards to enforce fishing laws. Earlier this week, after repeated warnings, the Korea Coast Guard opened fire on a Chinese vessel fishing illegally in Korean waters.
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Arctic Region
commentary
Being Safer in the Arctic
Abbie Tingstad, Timothy William James Smith
Oct 3, 2016
The National Interest
The Arctic is more accessible than it once was, but it's still a formidable place to travel. An emergency involving a cruise ship or a downed plane could stress the search-and-rescue system. But modest investments and planning measures can make a big difference.
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Military Ships and Naval Vessels
commentary
The Crucial South China Sea Ruling No One Is Talking About
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Sep 16, 2016
The Diplomat
The PCA found in July that China's coast guard had breached several UNCLOS articles governing safety and navigation at sea. Hopefully, this will help build a legal case that abiding by basic maritime safety principles is in the interest of all countries, including China.
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United States Navy
commentary
Egypt's Suez Canal: An Attenuated Lifeline
Scott Savitz, Paul DeLuca
Sep 14, 2016
The National Interest
The U.S. Navy has enjoyed the luxury of being able to transit the Suez Canal without hindrance for decades. However, the risk of losing access — perhaps quickly and unexpectedly — should inform Navy strategic and operational planning.
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Russia
commentary
The Growing Importance of Black Sea Security
F. Stephen Larrabee, Stephen J. Flanagan
Jul 11, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
The U.S. and NATO response to Russia's more assertive policy in Europe since 2014 has focused heavily on deterring possible Russian threats to the Baltic region. As allies take steps to strengthen defense of the Baltic region, they need to pay increased attention to enhancing security and deterrence in the Black Sea area.
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Military Transformation
commentary
Book Review: 'China's Military Transformation' by You Ji
Timothy R. Heath
Jul 5, 2016
H-Net
China's military has undeniably made tremendous strides in recent years. You Ji's book provides a collection of interesting and often perceptive observations on political and intellectual aspects of a rapidly modernizing People's Liberation Army.
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Military Ships and Naval Vessels
commentary
Indonesia-China Tensions in the Natuna Sea: Evidence of Naval Efficacy Over Coast Guards?
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Jul 5, 2016
The Diplomat
The notion that Southeast Asian countries should employ coast guards instead of navies to enforce maritime laws had been gaining currency. But many of the coast guard fleets lack sufficient capacity to deal with the threats along their coast and in disputed waters in the South China Sea.
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China
commentary
South China Sea Spat a Symptom of U.S.-China Jockeying for Advantage
Timothy R. Heath
Jun 27, 2016
World Politics Review
A spate of high-profile diplomatic feuds and military actions related to the South China Sea has raised concern about the direction of U.S.-China relations. Neither country is well positioned politically or economically to engage in a long-term, antagonistic relationship, let alone a major conflict.
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Border and Port Security
commentary
Ten Years After the Safe Port Act, Are America's Ports Secure?
Henry H. Willis @HenryHWillis
Apr 6, 2016
The Cipher Brief
The economic importance and visibility of America's ports make them attractive terrorism targets. Port security has improved, but many of the threats that motivated the Safe Ports Act in 2006 remain, and new dangers have emerged, including cyber threats.
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China
commentary
Beijing Ups the Ante in South China Sea Dispute with HQ-9 Deployment
Timothy R. Heath
Mar 29, 2016
Jamestown Foundation's China Brief
China's recent deployment of HQ-9 missiles to the Paracel Islands signals its determination to consolidate its gains in the South China Sea, regardless of criticism by the United States and its allies.
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China
commentary
China's Naval Modernization: Where Is It Headed?
Timothy R. Heath
Feb 10, 2016
World Politics Review
The PLA Navy is expanding its capabilities and operations to reduce vulnerabilities in China’s near seas, but also to aggressively support its expanding global ambitions and challenge U.S. leadership in Asia.
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United States Navy
commentary
Transforming 'Distributed Lethality' Strategy into Action
Katie Jacobson
Feb 8, 2016
Breaking Defense
Distributed lethality offers a more offensive approach to using naval surface forces as potential adversaries acquire naval capabilities designed to control the sea. Translating the concept into action has implications for Navy operations, logistics, finances, and overall strategy.
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Southeast Asia
commentary
Obama Doubles Down on Maritime Capacity Building in Southeast Asia
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Dec 15, 2015
Asia Pacific Bulletin
By contributing to coast guard capacity building by donating ships and funding, the United States has found an important and politically viable avenue to bolster maritme security to partners and allies in Southeast Asia.
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China
commentary
How Will China Respond to Future U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations?
Timothy R. Heath
Oct 29, 2015
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS
On October 27, the USS Lassen carried out the first freedom of navigation patrol to challenge China's territorial claims in the South China Sea. In assessing China's potential response to follow-on operations, the extremes of either complete inaction or a military attack can be ruled out.
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commentary
The Prospective Impact of Airbus Industries on Mobile
Edward G. Keating, Irina Elena Danescu
Oct 10, 2015
AL.com
Austal USA's operations in Mobile, Alabama have benefited the broader region. Similarly, Airbus's hiring should have a net favorable impact on the region's economy, since the area does not appear to be at or near full employment.
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China
commentary
China's Airfield Construction at Fiery Cross Reef in Context: Catch-Up or Coercion?
Michael S. Chase, Benjamin Purser
Aug 11, 2015
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS
Even if China really sees itself as undertaking legitimate activities to protect its rightful interests, it is not surprising that its rival claimants, as well as the United States and other countries in the region, see Beijing's island building activities as efforts to improve China's abilities to bully its neighbors.
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China
commentary
China's Island-Building Stirs Fears, but Creates Openings for U.S.
Timothy R. Heath
May 18, 2015
World Politics Review
News of proposed Navy patrols nearby disputed islands claimed by China suggests that the United States is toughening its response to Beijing's assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea.
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International Diplomacy
blog
China Unlikely to Blink in Maritime Dispute with Vietnam over Oil Rig
Jun 12, 2014
Tensions are rising in the South China Sea, where China moved a state-owned oil rig, reportedly accompanied by six warships, into disputed waters last month, triggering anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam that resulted in four deaths. Beijing has denied reports indicating the presence of Chinese warships in the region, while Hanoi has threatened legal action.
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Transportation Safety
commentary
Death Is Never Far When You Are at Sea
Anthony L. Russell
May 12, 2014
USA Today
The U.S. marine safety record is impressive, arguably the best in the world. Yet, as the heartbreaking example of the Sewol demonstrates, the United States must never become complacent.
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Arctic Ocean
commentary
Crimea, Climate Change, and U.S.-Russian Relations: A Perfect Storm
Anthony L. Russell
May 6, 2014
gCaptain
Russia possesses the world's most Arctic shoreline, water, and operating resources. But the United States is also an Arctic nation, even if much of the American public tends to under-appreciate this special status.
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Military Strategy
commentary
By Land and by Sea
Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Evan Braden Montgomery
Jul 22, 2013
Foreign Affairs
There are good reasons for the United States to rethink how it counterbalances Iran, reassures local allies, and projects power with fewer resources. However, tying down large numbers of fighter aircraft in the Gulf is likely only to exacerbate old problems and create new ones.
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Military Budgets and Defense Spending
commentary
Budget Cuts Are Cracking the West's Defenses
F. Stephen Larrabee, Peter A. Wilson
Aug 17, 2010
Christian Science Monitor
Washington would be wise to work closely with Britain and France to ensure that their budget cuts do not threaten how the allies will, together, address common threats and security challenges, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.
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Maritime Piracy
commentary
Opposing View: Keep Arms Off Ships
Peter Chalk
May 4, 2009
USA Today
Does the provision of private security contractors provide a viable solution to the growing problem of piracy off the Horn of Africa? Quite apart from the high cost — a robust security operation can run as much as $21,000 a day — employing security contractors poses problems on several fronts, writes Peter Chalk.
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Maritime Piracy
commentary
Who Has the Will to Fight Piracy?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Apr 21, 2009
GlobalSecurity.org
The recent French and American rescues of hostages held by pirates off the coast of Somalia were necessary and proper. No one believes these actions will end piracy. But unless we impose risks on the pirates--which means taking some risks ourselves--piracy will certainly flourish, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
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commentary
Securing America's Ports
Henry H. Willis @HenryHWillis, David S. Ortiz
Mar 26, 2006
San Diego Union-Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff: Securing America's Ports, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.
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commentary
Katrina Shows Supply Chain Needs National Attention
David S. Ortiz, Henry H. Willis @HenryHWillis
Sep 26, 2005
Los Angeles Business Journal
Published commentary by RAND staff: Katrina Shows Supply Chain Needs National Attention in the Los Angeles Business Journal.
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commentary
Beware Beijing's Military Ambitions
Roger Cliff
Aug 7, 2005
Los Angeles Times
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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commentary
Strengthening the Partnership
Cheryl Benard
Feb 22, 2005
In Touch
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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commentary
Atlantic Monthly and RAND View the Future
James A. Thomson @thomson0145
Aug 1, 2003
Atlantic Monthly
The Atlantic Monthly Magazine features a compilation of ten short essays written by experts at RAND, collectively titled Headlines Over the Horizon. The RAND authors examined developments in international and military affairs drawing little attention today that are expected to be major issues in the next three to five years.
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commentary
Africa Suffers Wave of Maritime Violence
Peter Chalk
Apr 1, 2001
Jane's Intelligence Review
Southeast Asia and, especially Indonesia, continues to constitute the main area of concern when it comes to maritime piracy, typically accounting for over half the attacks reported in any given year. However, Africa is experiencing an increasingly serious problem, particularly around the Horn on the continent's east coast and the western stretch of waters from Guinea to Nigeria.
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