Somalia

Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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China
blog
China's 70th Anniversary, Wargaming, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 4, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on what the future holds for China, the importance of gender diversity in wargaming, how Army families address life's challenges, and more.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Real Questions We Should Be Asking About Niger
Philip Mudd, Andrew Liepman
Oct 30, 2017
CNN
In the wake of the deaths of four U.S. servicemen in Niger, Americans are embroiled in a pointless political squabble. The focus should be on developing a greater understanding of the risks and benefits of U.S. counterterrorism operations abroad.
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Maternal Health
commentary
Family Planning Must Be Part of the Humanitarian Response in Africa's Conflict Zones
Mahlet Atakilt Woldetsadik
Jul 1, 2015
The RAND Blog
Worldwide, nearly 800 women die every day due to mostly preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. More than half of these deaths occur in fragile states torn by armed conflict and generalized violence.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Djibouti: Outpost of Stability in an Unstable Region
K. Jack Riley @K_Jack_Riley, Seth G. Jones
Apr 10, 2015
The Hill
The collaborative role being played by the United States and Djibouti represents the kind of partnerships that are now required in the battle against terrorism, because little-known places like Djibouti are one arena where the battle could be won or lost.
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Maritime Piracy
commentary
Somali Piracy All About Economics
Peter Chalk
Oct 11, 2013
USA Today
The average Somali lives on less than $2 a day. Even fishermen, who are comparatively well off by national standards, face difficulties making a living due to the chronic depletion of sea stocks from years of poaching and illegal dumping of toxic waste. Under such circumstances, the allure of piracy is clear.
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Counterterrorism
blog
Do U.S. Raids in Libya, Somalia Signal a Shift in Terror Strategy?
Oct 10, 2013
The raids that the United States conducted over the weekend in Libya and Somalia could signal a new focus in Washington on capturing terrorist suspects and gathering intelligence rather than relying on drone strikes. RAND experts Linda Robinson, Angel Rabasa, and Seth Jones comment.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
A Threat to U.S. Interests in East Africa
Seth G. Jones
Oct 2, 2013
NYTimes.com
The Shabab terrorist attack at Westgate Mall in Kenya and its follow-up attacks in the country are a stark reminder that the Somalia-based group poses a threat to the United States and its interests in East Africa, writes Seth G. Jones.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Al Qaeda Is Far from Defeated
Seth G. Jones
Apr 30, 2012
The Wall Street Journal
As the administration looks eastward—a strategy that incorporates China's rise—underestimating al Qaeda would be a dangerous mistake, writes Seth G. Jones.
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United Nations
commentary
Industry Insights: What's So Hard About Stopping Piracy?
Laurence Smallman
Apr 11, 2011
Earth Imaging Journal
Containing persistent maritime disorder might be more fruitful and could lay the foundations for a successful transition to better use of the sea once the societal factors—an even longer term problem—have been resolved, writes Laurence Smallman.
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Water Transportation
commentary
Kowtowing to Pirates' Ransoms Fuels Maritime Piracy
Laurence Smallman
Apr 11, 2011
Bloomberg Government
Instead of fanning piracy, international businesses need to heed policy. Ransoms in the short term can only lead to more problems in the long term, writes Laurence Smallman.
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Somalia
commentary
Stormy Seas off Somalia
Peter Chalk
Feb 28, 2011
Los Angeles Times
Only by addressing the poverty and lack of central authority in Somalia can the international community lower maritime crime and violence off the Horn of Africa, writes Peter Chalk.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Al Qaeda Tipping Point? Still a Long Way to Go
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Apr 26, 2010
NationalJournal.com
Although al Qaeda appears to be coming under pressure in some dimensions, I remain wary of calling a tipping point, and I am even more skeptical about the prospect of a knockout punch, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
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Maritime Piracy
commentary
On Dry Land - The Onshore Drivers of Piracy
Peter Chalk, Laurence Smallman
Jul 3, 2009
Jane's Intelligence Review online
Piracy is a growing international problem, primarily around the Horn of Africa. The international response has been largely military in nature and focused exclusively on the maritime theatre, ignoring key land drivers of piracy, which will resurface once the military actions end, write Peter Chalk and Laurence Smallman.
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Maritime Piracy
commentary
Who Has the Will to Fight Piracy?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Apr 21, 2009
GlobalSecurity.org
The recent French and American rescues of hostages held by pirates off the coast of Somalia were necessary and proper. No one believes these actions will end piracy. But unless we impose risks on the pirates--which means taking some risks ourselves--piracy will certainly flourish, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
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commentary
Old Front Against Terrorism
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 14, 2007
San Diego Union-Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff: Old Front Against Terrorism, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.
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commentary
We've Been Down This Road Before
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jul 17, 2003
Los Angeles Times
commentaries by RAND Staff: insightful commentaries on current events, published in newspapers, magazines and journals worldwide.
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Quoted

The United States should find ways to deter Chinese aggression that don't involve making an unambiguous and costly military commitment to Taiwan. Short of such a guarantee, Washington can still make much more explicit that invading Taiwan will entail economic, political, and military consequences for China.

Michael J. Mazarr

Senior Political Scientist

Source: Foreign Affairs

The failure of the jihadists can be judged a victory—albeit a costly one—over an organized effort to instigate violence in the United States. The country, however, has not exhausted its inventory of disaffected young men (and women) who may, in the future, embrace jihadism or other extremist ideologies on offer to convey their discontent.

Brian Michael Jenkins

Senior Adviser to the RAND President

Source: The Hill

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Somalia

Expanding the ISIS Brand

China's 70th Anniversary, Wargaming, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap

The Real Questions We Should Be Asking About Niger

Family Planning Must Be Part of the Humanitarian Response in Africa's Conflict Zones

Djibouti: Outpost of Stability in an Unstable Region

Somali Piracy All About Economics

Do U.S. Raids in Libya, Somalia Signal a Shift in Terror Strategy?

A Threat to U.S. Interests in East Africa

Al Qaeda Is Far from Defeated

Industry Insights: What's So Hard About Stopping Piracy?

Kowtowing to Pirates' Ransoms Fuels Maritime Piracy

Stormy Seas off Somalia

Al Qaeda Tipping Point? Still a Long Way to Go

On Dry Land - The Onshore Drivers of Piracy

Who Has the Will to Fight Piracy?

Old Front Against Terrorism

We've Been Down This Road Before

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