South Asia

commentary

Trump 2.0 Would Get Mixed Responses in the Indo-Pacific
The responses from across the Indo-Pacific to a second Trump administration would likely be mixed, with the determining factor being whether the country in question maintains a close relationship with the United States.
Aug 22, 2024

commentary

Nurturing and Destroying Democracy: The Two Sides of Bangladesh's Ousted Awami League
Amid violent protests and mounting dissent in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation marks the end of an era, leaving Bangladesh in turmoil and casting a shadow over its democratic aspirations. The future hangs in the balance with an uncertain military role and a populace hungry for change.
Aug 6, 2024
commentary

Russia Is a Strategic Spoiler in the Indo-Pacific
Moscow has recently shown that it remains a formidable presence in the Indo-Pacific. But as long as Russian interference does not fundamentally challenge the United States' own Indo-Pacific strategy, then Moscow's interference is just part and parcel of the emerging multipolar order.
Jul 12, 2024
commentary

India Election Results—Continuity, with Some Welcome Surprises
In the recent India election, the ruling party performed worse than generally expected, losing its majority for the first time since 2014. Still, it is likely to return to power with enough seats among its alliance partner to earn a majority. While this sounds like a recipe for political instability, it need not be so.
Jun 5, 2024
commentary

India's National Elections—A New Ingredient in the Mix
As India's national elections enter their 7th and final phase of voting on June 1, a new influential phenomenon has emerged: the proliferation of what may be called “micro-news providers” almost entirely broadcasting through the medium of YouTube.
May 30, 2024
article

An Affordable Diarrhea Treatment Could Save Thousands of Children's Lives
Diarrhea kills by dehydration. The discovery that salts plus glucose and water can keep patients alive has been hailed as one of the greatest medical advances of the past century. Yet health care providers from South Asia to sub-Saharan Africa don't prescribe them enough.
May 15, 2024
commentary

U.S.-India Ties Remain Fundamentally Fragile
Despite widespread optimism about the future of the U.S.-India partnership, relations are considerably more fragile than they might appear. Indeed, the two countries continue to experience friction in several areas that, if left unaddressed, could ultimately undermine or even derail future cooperation.
Apr 7, 2024
article

How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
Climate stress will become more intense and frequent throughout CENTCOM's area of operations. CENTCOM may be called upon less to fight wars and more to airdrop humanitarian supplies or evacuate people from disaster zones. It should also plan to contribute to stability operations in the region.
Mar 15, 2024
commentary

America's Indo-Pacific Alliances Are Astonishingly Strong
As 2023 draws to a close, U.S. alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific are just about the deepest and most robust they have been in all their history. The United States will likely continue to bolster and expand its network to complicate and deter future actions that China and North Korea might take to threaten, undermine, or otherwise undo the Indo-Pacific order.
Dec 8, 2023
commentary

India-Canada Spat Is No-Win Situation for the U.S.
For the United States, the ongoing diplomatic row between Canada and India is very uncomfortable because Washington has no interest in choosing sides. The best-case scenario for the Biden administration is that Canada and India resolve their differences privately and expeditiously, without any need for U.S. mediation.
Oct 25, 2023
commentary

India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia
The jostling between India and China for influence in South Asia will likely prove crucial to the fate of U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. The good news, at least for now, is that New Delhi has been mostly successful in pushing back against Beijing's rising influence across the region.
Aug 21, 2023
commentary

India Is Becoming a Power in Southeast Asia
The moment has been long in coming, but India is turning into a strategic actor in Southeast Asia. Even though the United States and its Asian treaty allies are not involved, India's moves raise the tantalizing possibility that it will increasingly complement the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China in the coming years.
Jul 10, 2023
commentary

As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'
When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative.
Apr 11, 2023
commentary

India Can Bridge the U.S.-Russia Divide over Ukraine
No country is as well positioned as India to mediate between Russia and the United States, and bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. Even limited success in ending the war will bolster India's credentials as an emerging great power, capable of accomplishing remarkable things that others cannot.
Mar 20, 2023
commentary

Preparing for the Next India-China Border Crisis
Mounting tensions between India and China due to Chinese encroachment on their disputed border affect the United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy. Washington should assist New Delhi in deterring further Chinese attempts to nibble away at Indian territory and be ready to respond quickly in case events spiral out of control.
Feb 15, 2023
commentary

India Upholds the Rules-Based Liberal International Order—But in Its Own Way
Contrary to continued U.S. questions about the degree of New Delhi's commitment to the liberal international order, India has shown that it is committed in its own, sometimes limited way. Of course, securing Indian national interests will always be paramount. U.S. policymakers might recognize that any additional pressure is likely to be counterproductive.
Dec 9, 2022

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…

Quoted

The [Israel-Hamas] war has exacerbated a divide in American politics. Historically, Israel enjoyed wide bipartisan support. That's no longer the case with more progressives and younger voters questioning this core tenet of U.S. foreign policy. The Gaza war has certainly exacerbated this shift and it's going to continue to influence the politics of American support for years to come

Raphael S. Cohen

Director, Strategy and Doctrine Program, RAND Project AIR FORCE, and Director of the Pardee RAND Graduate School National Security Program

Source: rand.org

While there have sometimes been intense policy debates, American support for Israel was historically bipartisan. Judging by the reaction to the Gaza war at many of the leading college campuses—the crucible of future leaders—Western attitudes will only further harden against Israel. Israel has an American problem that it will struggle to effectively address.

Brian Michael Jenkins

Senior Adviser to the RAND President

Source: rand.org

Preparing the Workforce for AI: Insights for Civilian and Military Leaders

China's Use of Generative AI and Social Bots

A Year After the October 7 Start of the Israel-Hamas Conflict: Q&A with RAND Experts

October 7th and the Limits of Diplomacy

The Math Equity Equation

The Policy Currents Podcast

Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research

Improving Access to Early Childhood Education

South Asia

Trump 2.0 Would Get Mixed Responses in the Indo-Pacific

Nurturing and Destroying Democracy: The Two Sides of Bangladesh's Ousted Awami League

Russia Is a Strategic Spoiler in the Indo-Pacific

India Election Results—Continuity, with Some Welcome Surprises

India's National Elections—A New Ingredient in the Mix

An Affordable Diarrhea Treatment Could Save Thousands of Children's Lives

U.S.-India Ties Remain Fundamentally Fragile

How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations

America's Indo-Pacific Alliances Are Astonishingly Strong

India-Canada Spat Is No-Win Situation for the U.S.

India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia

India Is Becoming a Power in Southeast Asia

As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'

India Can Bridge the U.S.-Russia Divide over Ukraine

Preparing for the Next India-China Border Crisis

India Upholds the Rules-Based Liberal International Order—But in Its Own Way

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