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Southeast Asia

Vietnam
commentary
What Does Vietnam Think About America's Indo-Pacific Strategy?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 5, 2020
The Diplomat
The South China Sea is where the rubber meets the road for U.S.-Vietnam security ties, and in this regard, Hanoi has gone as far as it is comfortable. Washington should expect Vietnam to continue seeking balance between China, which has economic and military superiority over it, and the United States, which can help offset Chinese power.
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Philippines
commentary
China Refuses to Quit on the Philippines
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 22, 2020
The Diplomat
When the Filipino people elected Rodrigo Duterte to become their next president in May 2016, China saw a distinct opportunity to pull the longtime U.S. ally away from Washington and into Beijing's strategic orbit. But it remains to be seen how the long-term geopolitical competition between the United States and China over the Philippines will play out.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The Indo-Pacific Contest: It Could be Time for Fresh Ideas on Allied Security Cooperation
John Blaxland, Jennifer D. P. Moroney @jdpmoroney
Jul 8, 2020
Pacific Forum
U.S. and Australian interests in the Pacific and Southeast Asia face unprecedented challenges from China, and Australia may not be able to handle them on its own. Momentum is growing for heightened cooperation between Australia and the United States.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 18, 2020
The Diplomat
China hailed Philippines President Duterte's announcement in February of an end to the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months as evidence the United States was losing the great power competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. But on June 2, Duterte decided to postpone the VFA termination, breathing new life into the decades-long agreement.
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Military Acquisition and Procurement
commentary
Spending Smart or Spending Big: The Value of Systematic Assessments of Weapons Procurement
Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini
Jun 8, 2020
The RAND Blog
Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and inevitable economic difficulties, national governments should be encouraged to weigh their military requirements in a more cost-effective manner. Countries need to think strategically about the life cycle costs of equipment, not just the original purchase price.
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Philippines
commentary
Are Military Purchases in SE Asia for Political Balancing a Good Use of National Defense Resources?
Chandler Sachs, John V. Parachini
May 7, 2020
Asian Military Review
The Philippines has embarked upon a multi-phase, multi-year modernization of its armed forces, but some of the acquisition decisions appear to be driven by political symbolism rather than responsible military decisions. Using military procurement for political symbolism and paying a high price for it takes resources away from other pressing national security and domestic needs.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 4, 2020
The Diplomat
Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
There's Still Life in the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 4, 2020
Foreign Policy
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he would terminate the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Washington and Manila have until August 9 to save it or negotiate a new VFA to avert any further alliance crisis.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Apr 9, 2020
The Diplomat
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
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China
commentary
A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Logan Ma
Apr 6, 2020
Maritime Issues
China's armed fishing militia plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Why did Beijing create a maritime militia to begin with and how has it evolved over time? What does this history suggest about its future?
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Vietnam
commentary
China Remains Unfazed by Warming U.S.-Vietnam Security Ties
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 19, 2020
The Diplomat
In early March, the United States sent an aircraft carrier to Da Nang, Vietnam, in a display of goodwill and deepening security ties between the former adversaries. China is well aware of U.S.–Vietnam moves, and yet its public reaction to the USS Theodore Roosevelt can be summed up in one word: unfazed.
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Philippines
commentary
If U.S. Forces Have to Leave the Philippines, Then What?
Caroline Baxter @CarolineCBaxter
Feb 28, 2020
Foreign Policy Research Institute
If the United States were to lose access to bases in the Philippines, the effects would ripple outward. Maintaining alliances in the Indo-Pacific in all their manifestations is critical—and the details matter.
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Indonesia
commentary
Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 16, 2020
World Politics Review
China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?
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Vietnam
commentary
How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christopher Sharman
Dec 31, 2019
War on the Rocks
Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.
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China
commentary
What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Dec 30, 2019
South China Morning Post
While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.
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International Diplomacy
blog
Most Popular RAND Blog Commentary of 2019
Dec 23, 2019
Terrorism. The humanitarian crisis at the border. How to engage friends and foes on the world stage. Here are the top 10 commentaries that readers engaged with most on The RAND Blog in 2019.
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