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Southeast Asia

The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Southeast Asia Loves ISIS, but Is the Feeling Mutual?
Zachary Abuza, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Sep 16, 2019
Foreign Affairs
As the ISIS core in Iraq and Syria attempts to rebuild, Baghdadi and his lieutenants will have to make difficult decisions about where to allocate resources. Now that the caliphate is gone and ISIS must transform into an insurgency, the largely untested lands of Southeast Asia may yield rich rewards.
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Environmental Pollution
commentary
We Built an App to Detect Areas Most Vulnerable to Life-Threatening Haze
Tianjia Liu, Miriam Elizabeth Marlier, Jonathan J. Buonocore, Loretta J. Mickley, Ruth S. DeFries
Sep 10, 2019
The Conversation
Forest and land-use fires are ravaging Indonesia's Sumatra and Kalimantan islands. Haze from these fires threatens lives as inhaling smoke can cause heart and respiratory diseases, leading to premature deaths. We developed a new online tool to provide decision-makers with information to protect people living downwind from the fires.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 19, 2019
Maritime Issues
What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.
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North Korea
commentary
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christian Curriden, Dung Huynh
Aug 12, 2019
38 North
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
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Military Facilities
commentary
The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia
Timothy R. Heath
Aug 7, 2019
World Politics Review
China and Cambodia have reportedly signed a secret agreement allowing the Chinese navy to use a military facility near Ream, along Cambodia's southern coast, though both countries deny the reports. The installation of a Chinese military facility in Cambodia, if realized, would further complicate an already sensitive and tense situation in the region.
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China
commentary
Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 15, 2019
The Diplomat
China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.
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Indonesia
commentary
What Jokowi’s Reelection Means for Indonesia
Jonah Blank
Apr 25, 2019
Foreign Affairs
On April 17, Indonesia conducted the largest single-day vote in any nation's history. President Joko Widodo has likely netted a second term. What does that mean for his nation and its place in the world?
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China
commentary
Time to Speak Up About the South China Sea
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Mar 20, 2019
East Asia Forum
Some leaders in Southeast Asia may fear that new or enhanced postures in the South China Sea could antagonize China. But directly calling out China's breaks from the status quo or intimidation tactics may not necessarily put these countries at risk of Chinese countermeasures.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Dung Huynh
Jan 21, 2019
The Diplomat
U.S.-China tensions are rising in the South China Sea. Washington should take solace in the fact that Vietnam's “Three Nos” policy actually offers significant breathing room for defense cooperation.
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Cambodia
commentary
Does Nuon Chea Still Have No Regrets?
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Dec 19, 2018
The Diplomat
Nuon Chea was convicted of genocide in a tribunal in Phnom Penh in November for his role in the Cambodian genocide. Shelly Culbertson relays the story of her trip to interview him at his home in Pailin in 2003.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China—And Now's the Time to Do It
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 22, 2018
Foreign Policy
Even in its resurrected form, the Quad could be in danger of failing to achieve its mission. The Quad might consider getting its house in order by extending dialogue partnerships to ASEAN maritime counterclaimant states.
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Indonesia
commentary
Assessing Recent Developments in Indonesian Maritime Security
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Oct 12, 2018
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Despite a daunting set of maritime challenges, Indonesia has placed renewed emphasis on maritime security governance. While the programs in place may take decades to bear fruit, Indonesia is on the path to securing the waterways and infrastructure so key to its overall economic development.
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Vietnam
commentary
Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Nguyen Nhat Anh
May 11, 2018
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam's Remarkable Month of Balancing Against China in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 26, 2018
The Diplomat
Vietnam in March very publicly engaged in a string of activities to strengthen deterrence against China in the South China Sea. But Hanoi's push to deepen external defense ties with states that can help its cause will not necessarily translate into greater risk-taking in the region.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The Jerusalem Post
Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Expanding the ISIS Brand
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 19, 2018
The National Interest
Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.
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