Southeast Asia

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The Indo-Pacific Mostly Backs 'One China,' but Taiwan Gets Some Love, Too

Almost the entire Indo-Pacific region backs China over Taiwan. But U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August trip to Taiwan made it clear that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan's cause, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island. This suggests that Beijing's assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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New Philippine President Marcos Jr. Likely Won't Repeat Duterte's Foreign Policy Mistakes

The May 2022 election of Bongbong Marcos as the next president of the Philippines will hold significant implications for Manila's foreign policy. He is likely to be influenced by the policies of both his father, former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, yielding a new government interested in engaging China while keeping the United States close by.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Russian Mercenaries, Online Extremism, the Commercial Space Market: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Russia's use of mercenaries, understanding how extremist movements operate online, trends in the commercial space market, and more.

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Why Most of the Indo-Pacific Tiptoes Around Russia

Since the start of Russia's increasingly brutal war in Ukraine, the West has ramped up pressure on the rest of the world to condemn Moscow's belligerence and join sanctions against Russia and its regime. In the vast Indo-Pacific region, however, the West's message has fallen flat.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Taiwan Isn't the Ukraine of the Indo-Pacific. Try Vietnam Instead

Russia's war in Eastern Europe has prompted Indo-Pacific security watchers to draw comparisons between Ukraine's plight and that of Taiwan with regard to China. But the more-applicable analogy is a different Indo-Pacific country: Vietnam.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Could the U.S. Play Offense in China's Back Yard?

Relations with Cambodia and Laos have fallen victim to the U.S. administration's foreign policy priority of shared values over shared interests. This approach has failed to make headway in Cambodia and Laos, isolates the United States in a region where few countries are true democracies, and unnecessarily cedes ground to Beijing.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Still Has Much to Prove

As the Biden administration's first year comes to a close, how is the United States faring in Southeast Asia? Washington got a lot right, but it could do better to optimize competition against China and work on a more sensitive understanding of the delicate and at times precarious position Southeast Asian states are in.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Duterte's Dalliance with China Is Over

When Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte took office in 2016, he pledged to shift his country's foreign policy away from the United States in favor of China and Russia. His China-friendly policy is now effectively over, and he's doing his best to align the Philippines with the United States once more.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Reinforcing U.S. Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific After the Fall of Afghanistan

China and North Korea are seizing on the U.S. departure from Afghanistan to press their own political warfare messages. What can the United States do to mitigate the impact of the Taliban takeover on America's interests in the Indo-Pacific?

Scott W. Harold

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Biden's Indo-Pacific Policy Blueprint Emerges

The Biden administration has yet to detail its goals in the Indo-Pacific region and how it plans to achieve them. But following recent virtual engagements and U.S. visits to the region, at least three key points have crystallized.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Biden's Troubled Southeast Asia Policy Needs a Reboot

Nearly six months into Joe Biden's presidency, it is now possible to begin assessing the effectiveness of some of his administration's policies. When it comes to Southeast Asia, the Biden administration has thus far fallen short, but the future looks relatively bright with certain caveats.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Indonesia Is Quietly Warming Up to China

Improving China-Indonesia relations could have profound geostrategic significance for the United States. Washington may want to focus on assistance that would benefit Indonesia itself, not just the United States in its competition with China.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Pandemic Education, Working Mothers, Predicting Cyber Threats: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the urban-rural divide in pandemic education, supporting working moms, what makes a good COVID-19 reopening plan, and more.

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China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte's Best Efforts

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has time and again underscored his anti-U.S. and pro-Chinese orientation. Duterte now recognizes, in spite of his continued rhetoric to the contrary, that China is no friend.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Biden Should Consider Downsides of Stressing National Values in Indo-Pacific

The Biden administration has argued that the United States must strengthen its Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships to compete more successfully with China. Will Washington prioritize national interests or national values?

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman