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Taiwan

Security Cooperation
commentary
A Taiwan Contingency and Japan's Counterstrike Debate
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold, Satoru Mori
Jul 23, 2021
The Diplomat
The United States and Japan could be drawn into a conflict in the event of Chinese aggression against Taiwan whether they like it or not. Allied defense planning could consider how Japan might further reinforce deterrence and if necessary improve its ability to contribute to the common defense.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
What the United States Wants from Japan in Taiwan
Jeffrey W. Hornung
May 10, 2021
Foreign Policy
If a Taiwan conflict breaks out, what might the United States request of Japan? For the U.S.-Japan alliance, the answer is critical if the countries want to translate expressions of support into actual planning and preparation.
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China
commentary
Biden's China Reset Is Already on the Ropes
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 15, 2021
Nikkei Asia
The prospects of a U.S.-China reset are rapidly fading, and both sides bear some measure of responsibility. Beijing has refused to change its own assertive behavior. And all signs thus far point to a Biden administration that plans to take an exceptionally hard line against China.
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Taiwan
commentary
Biden Doubles Down on Trump's Taiwan Policy, but Will It Last?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Feb 5, 2021
Nikkei Asia
It's an open secret that Taiwan welcomed the Trump administration's policy to significantly strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, and it was jittery about the transition to the Biden administration. Early indications, however, are that the Biden team appears poised to opt for a stronger relationship with Taiwan as set forth under the Trump administration.
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Taiwan
commentary
Why Taiwan Can Feel at Ease with Joe Biden as U.S. President
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Dec 15, 2020
South China Morning Post
Joe Biden's win in the U.S. presidential election is causing thinly veiled heartburn in Taipei. But concerns that the incoming Biden administration might rethink Taiwan policy in favor of better relations with China are probably misguided.
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Oceania
commentary
PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 14, 2020
The Diplomat
The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Brandon Alexander Millan
Sep 25, 2020
The Diplomat
The 1992 Consensus is an agreement between the Kuomintang opposition party in Taiwan and mainland Chinese authorities on the existence of only “One China.” Maintaining the 1992 Consensus as the cornerstone of the Kuomintang's platform has not helped the party's cause, and more importantly, has probably done the opposite.
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Taiwan
commentary
Ambiguity Has Its Uses
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr
Sep 24, 2020
Foreign Affairs
As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.
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Taiwan
commentary
Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 21, 2020
South China Morning Post
HHS Secretary Alex Azar's August 9th visit to Taiwan should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening. But Taiwan should view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. U.S. objectives with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
Air Travel Data to Predict COVID Risk, Heatwave Planning, Caregiver Time Off: RAND Weekly Recap
Jun 12, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on using air travel data to predict COVID risk, planning for a heat wave during the pandemic, why caregivers need time off, and more.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?
Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Jun 8, 2020
The Hill
The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
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Taiwan
commentary
Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 3, 2020
The Diplomat
For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Where Does China's 'One Country, Two Systems' Stand in 2020?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Feb 13, 2020
The Diplomat
Hong Kong and Macau live under “one country, two systems,” and China aspires to include Taiwan in the future as well. But President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in Taiwan on January 11 resoundingly demonstrates that the arrangement is dead on arrival there.
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China
commentary
What to Expect from China in 2020
Ali Wyne, James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jan 3, 2020
The Hill
Last year was an eventful one in China, with U.S.–China trade tensions escalating, protests in Hong Kong reaching a crisis point, and President Xi Jinping further consolidating power. What might the rest of the world expect from China in 2020?
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China
commentary
What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Dec 30, 2019
South China Morning Post
While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.
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China
commentary
What Does Beijing Want from the Pacific Islands?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase
Dec 9, 2019
ChinaFile
China's recent activities in Oceania highlight a formidable two-pronged strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement that Washington and its allies and partners will have to vigorously compete against to maintain their preeminence in the Pacific.
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Taiwan
commentary
China Will Struggle to Shut Taiwan Out of the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 3, 2019
The Hill
With the decisions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati to recognize Beijing over Taipei, the list of Taiwan's official diplomatic partners has decreased to 15. But China is likely to have a difficult time eliminating Taiwan's presence diplomatically in the Pacific.
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Taiwan
commentary
A Tale of Two Cities China Ignores at Its Peril
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 12, 2019
South China Morning Post
Beijing may believe that, eventually, Taiwanese politics will turn in its favor. But it should consider experiences from the other two territories currently living under the formula—Hong Kong and Macau—to better understand why “one country, two systems” will never work in Taiwan, regardless of politics.
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Taiwan
commentary
Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Aug 9, 2019
Institut Montaigne
Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.
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Hong Kong
commentary
Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 3, 2019
The Hill
Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.
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commentary
One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jun 21, 2019
Foreign Policy
The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's “one country, two systems” policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.
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Taiwan
commentary
A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 21, 2019
The National Interest
It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.
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Border and Port Security
blog
Border Wall, Student Suspension, Syria: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 11, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on what a border wall can accomplish, reducing student suspensions, confusion over the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and more.
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Taiwan
commentary
Is a Sustainable Peace Possible in the Taiwan Strait?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 7, 2019
Foreign Policy
Between now and the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, the prospects of forging a sustainable peace between Taiwan and China are exceptionally low. Both Chinese President Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai are dug into their respective positions.
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Military Strategy
commentary
Small States Can Use Naval Mines and Unmanned Vehicles to Deter Maritime Aggression
Scott Savitz
Jul 16, 2018
RealClearDefense
Small coastal nations face potential threats from larger, more powerful adversaries. Their coastlines represent vulnerabilities that a foe may seek to exploit. But these nations can hinder and deter potential aggressors by using less expensive systems, such as naval mines and unmanned vehicles.
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Taiwan
commentary
Beijing's Threats Against Taiwan Are Deadly Serious
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 22, 2018
Foreign Policy
China's perception of the political status of Taiwan and how close Taipei and Washington have become has come to dominate cross-strait relations. Taiwan and the United States should prepare for greater hostility in the coming years, almost certainly lasting until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2020.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
China Is Tightening the Screws on Taiwan. Will Trump Act and Risk Losing Beijing?
Michael S. Chase
Feb 22, 2018
The Cipher Brief
The United States should consider ways to strengthen its engagement with Taiwan on defense and security issues that go beyond arms sales. Washington will need to do more to help Taiwan deal with other forms of Chinese pressure as well.
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Taiwan
commentary
Why China Should (Still) Feel Good About Taiwan… but Maybe Not for Long
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 24, 2018
Global Taiwan Brief
Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Taiwanese President Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. But because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.
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Military Aircraft
commentary
Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?
Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Logan Ma
Sep 13, 2017
War on the Rocks
Recent bomber flights near Taiwan represent the most concerted training regimen yet aimed at improving Chinese airpower. China seeks to enhance the PLA Air Force's capabilities and signal Beijing's will to defend its territorial claims against the U.S. and its regional allies and partners, especially Taiwan and Japan.
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase, Logan Ma
Jun 14, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.
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Taiwan
commentary
Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 10, 2017
International Security
Prolonged tensions — even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace — are likely if China's President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen cannot reach basic agreement on Taiwan's sovereignty.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why China Will Not Unify with Taiwan by 2020 — and Beijing Lacks Compelling Military Options
Timothy R. Heath
Mar 21, 2017
Lawfare
The prospects for peaceful unification of China and Taiwan continue to dim. Nothing Beijing has tried to woo or coerce Taiwan has worked. For those determined to compel Taiwan's unification, military subjugation remains a last option. But it would only worsen China's security environment.
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Taiwan
commentary
Why China Should Feel Good About Taiwan
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Feb 22, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
Chinese leaders should seek to engage in good-faith discussions with Taiwanese counterparts. Beijing should also recognize that Tsai's tentativeness about the new U.S. administration could change if cross-Strait military tensions escalate.
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Taiwan
commentary
History and Current Developments Regarding Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration
Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris
Feb 15, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
As Asia-Pacific countries develop policies to regulate maritime zones of jurisdiction, the importance of coast guards as instruments of state policy has been growing. Taiwan's Coast Guard is an increasingly effective force.
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commentary
Hey Washington Experts — Don't Roll Your Eyes Over Trump, Roll Up Your Sleeves
Michael Spirtas
Jan 12, 2017
Fox News Channel
Policy experts do not want to be irrelevant or ignored. The Trump administration does not want to fail, and needs to generate winning policies. By working together, the administration and the policy community could help one another, and, more importantly, the nation.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Walking Away from One-China Policy Imperils Taiwan
Michael S. Chase, Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Dec 22, 2016
The National Interest
The U.S. One-China policy has helped keep the peace for decades. Abandoning it now could result in stiffer Chinese resolve. Such a strategy may even backfire by triggering an otherwise avoidable crisis.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
China's Actions Are Causing U.S. 'Militarization' of the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Nov 3, 2016
The National Interest
Beijing's aggression in the Asia-Pacific is threatening key U.S. allies, causing America to respond. Any change in U.S. policy must be based on changes in Chinese behavior.
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan Should Not Worry About the Vatican
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 5, 2016
PacNet, CSIS
Concerns are growing in Taipei over whether the Holy See intends to switch its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Beijing could be entertaining Vatican requests not out of genuine interest in reestablishing relations, but to put Taiwan on edge.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
A Bumpy Road Ahead for China-Taiwan Relations
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 22, 2016
Defense Dossier
Taiwanese President Tsai has issued numerous political overtures to Beijing, yet Chinese President Xi has demonstrated a clear reluctance to accept her as a credible partner. Instead, he has turned up the heat on Tsai in an attempt to undermine her administration.
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Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan Forced to Rethink Its Air Defense Strategy
Michael J. Lostumbo
Apr 14, 2016
Defense News
Taiwan's defense problem is challenging, but it will spend a considerable sum on air defense capabilities in the coming years, and those investments could be made much more effective.
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The Elderly
commentary
Aging in Asia: Can the 'Tigers' Continue to Roar?
Rafiq Dossani, Rachel M. Swanger
Jun 16, 2015
The RAND Blog
Changing demographics will force Japan and the “Asian Tigers” — Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan — to find ways to remain economically dynamic while increasingly looking after their elderly. How might public policy help accomplish this?
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commentary
Roiling the Waters in the Taiwan Strait
Roger Cliff, Toy I. Reid
Mar 21, 2006
International Herald Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff: Roiling the Waters in the Taiwan Strait, in International Herald Tribune.
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commentary
Taiwan Risks Getting In Over Its Head
Michael D. Swaine
Apr 24, 2001
Los Angeles Times
Published commentary by RAND staff.
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