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  1. RAND
  2. >The RAND Blog
/content/rand/blog/jcr:content/par/bloglist .topic.taiwan
The RAND Blog

Taiwan

  • An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter takes off from the flight deck of the USS Mustin in the Taiwan Strait, August 18, 2020, photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Cody Beam/U.S. Navy
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Biden Doubles Down on Trump's Taiwan Policy, but Will It Last?

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Feb 5, 2021

    Nikkei Asia

    It's an open secret that Taiwan welcomed the Trump administration's policy to significantly strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, and it was jittery about the transition to the Biden administration. Early indications, however, are that the Biden team appears poised to opt for a stronger relationship with Taiwan as set forth under the Trump administration.

    Read More »
  • U.S. President-elect Joe Biden delivers a televised address to the nation at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware, December 14, 2020, photo by Mike Segar/ReutersU.S. President-elect Joe Biden delivers a televised address to the nation at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware, December 14, 2020, photo by Mike Segar/Reuters
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Why Taiwan Can Feel at Ease with Joe Biden as U.S. President

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Dec 15, 2020

    South China Morning Post

    Joe Biden's win in the U.S. presidential election is causing thinly veiled heartburn in Taipei. But concerns that the incoming Biden administration might rethink Taiwan policy in favor of better relations with China are probably misguided.

    Read More »
  • Photo by Ron Przysucha/U.S. Government Photo
    Oceania

    commentary

    PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Oct 14, 2020

    The Diplomat

    The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.

    Read More »
  • The Kuomintang party headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, August 9, 2004, <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/92283658@N00/1326494217">Photo</a> by <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alanchan/">Alan Chan</a>/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/">CC BY-NC-SA 2.0</a>
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Brandon Alexander Millan

    Sep 25, 2020

    The Diplomat

    The 1992 Consensus is an agreement between the Kuomintang opposition party in Taiwan and mainland Chinese authorities on the existence of only “One China.” Maintaining the 1992 Consensus as the cornerstone of the Kuomintang's platform has not helped the party's cause, and more importantly, has probably done the opposite.

    Read More »
  • U.S. Navy vessels in the Philippine Sea, November, 2018, photo by MC2 Kaila V. Peters/U.S. Navy
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Ambiguity Has Its Uses

    Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

    Sep 24, 2020

    Foreign Affairs

    As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.

    Read More »
  • U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar meets with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office, in Taipei, Taiwan, August 10, 2020, photo courtesy of the Taiwan Presidential Office
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Aug 21, 2020

    South China Morning Post

    HHS Secretary Alex Azar's August 9th visit to Taiwan should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening. But Taiwan should view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. U.S. objectives with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.

    Read More »
  • Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

    blog

    Air Travel Data to Predict COVID Risk, Heatwave Planning, Caregiver Time Off: RAND Weekly Recap

    Jun 12, 2020

    This weekly recap focuses on using air travel data to predict COVID risk, planning for a heat wave during the pandemic, why caregivers need time off, and more.

    Read More »
  • A sign with flags of (R-L) Tuvalu, Nauru, Taiwan, Marshall Islands, and Palau is seen before a ceremony to donate masks to Taiwan's Pacific allies, in Taipei, Taiwan, April 15, 2020, photo by Ben Blanchard/Reuters
    Security Cooperation

    commentary

    Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?

    Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold

    Jun 8, 2020

    The Hill

    The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Read More »
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers a speech at the opening session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, May 22, 2020, photo by Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Jun 3, 2020

    The Diplomat

    For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.

    Read More »
  • Taiwan Vice President-elect William Lai and incumbent Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen celebrate at a rally after their election victory in Taipei, Taiwan, January 11, 2020, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters
    International Diplomacy

    commentary

    Where Does China's 'One Country, Two Systems' Stand in 2020?

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Feb 13, 2020

    The Diplomat

    Hong Kong and Macau live under “one country, two systems,” and China aspires to include Taiwan in the future as well. But President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in Taiwan on January 11 resoundingly demonstrates that the arrangement is dead on arrival there.

    Read More »
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the opening ceremony of the second China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2019, photo by Aly Song/Reuters
    China

    commentary

    What to Expect from China in 2020

    Ali Wyne, James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

    Jan 3, 2020

    The Hill

    Last year was an eventful one in China, with U.S.–China trade tensions escalating, protests in Hong Kong reaching a crisis point, and President Xi Jinping further consolidating power. What might the rest of the world expect from China in 2020?

    Read More »
  • Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen attends a campaign rally ahead of the presidential election in Taipei, Taiwan, December 21, 2019, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters
    China

    commentary

    What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Dec 30, 2019

    South China Morning Post

    While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.

    Read More »
  • (L-R) Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, October 9, 2019, photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters
    China

    commentary

    What Does Beijing Want from the Pacific Islands?

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase

    Dec 9, 2019

    ChinaFile

    China's recent activities in Oceania highlight a formidable two-pronged strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement that Washington and its allies and partners will have to vigorously compete against to maintain their preeminence in the Pacific.

    Read More »
  • Taiwan's guards of honour attend a welcoming ceremony for Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine in Taipei, Taiwan, July 27, 2018, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters
    Taiwan

    commentary

    China Will Struggle to Shut Taiwan Out of the Pacific

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Oct 3, 2019

    The Hill

    With the decisions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati to recognize Beijing over Taipei, the list of Taiwan's official diplomatic partners has decreased to 15. But China is likely to have a difficult time eliminating Taiwan's presence diplomatically in the Pacific.

    Read More »
  • China and Taiwan flags on a chess board, photo by Kagenmi/Getty Images
    Taiwan

    commentary

    A Tale of Two Cities China Ignores at Its Peril

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Sep 12, 2019

    South China Morning Post

    Beijing may believe that, eventually, Taiwanese politics will turn in its favor. But it should consider experiences from the other two territories currently living under the formula—Hong Kong and Macau—to better understand why “one country, two systems” will never work in Taiwan, regardless of politics.

    Read More »
  • Soldiers sit on an M60A3 tank for a group photograph after an anti-invasion drill to test readiness ahead of Lunar New Year, simulating enemy invasion and the safeguarding of the weapon systems in case of air raid, in Taichung, Taiwan, January 17, 2019, Photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

    Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold

    Aug 9, 2019

    Institut Montaigne

    Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.

    Read More »
  • Protesters break the windows of the Legislative Council building on the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to China in Hong Kong, July 1, 2019, photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters
    Hong Kong

    commentary

    Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Jul 3, 2019

    The Hill

    Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.

    Read More »
  • Protesters outside police headquarters demand Hong Kong's leaders to step down and withdraw the extradition bill, in Hong Kong, June 21, 2019, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters
    Politics and Government

    commentary

    One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Jun 21, 2019

    Foreign Policy

    The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's “one country, two systems” policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.

    Read More »
  • Participants wave flags during Taiwan's National Day celebrations outside the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, October 10, 2010, photo by Nicky Loh/Reuters
    Taiwan

    commentary

    A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Mar 21, 2019

    The National Interest

    It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.

    Read More »
  • Border and Port Security

    blog

    Border Wall, Student Suspension, Syria: RAND Weekly Recap

    Jan 11, 2019

    This weekly recap focuses on what a border wall can accomplish, reducing student suspensions, confusion over the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and more.

    Read More »
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping listens to a speech during an event to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the &ldquo;Message to Compatriots in Taiwan&rdquo; at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, January 2, 2019
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Is a Sustainable Peace Possible in the Taiwan Strait?

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Jan 7, 2019

    Foreign Policy

    Between now and the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, the prospects of forging a sustainable peace between Taiwan and China are exceptionally low. Both Chinese President Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai are dug into their respective positions.

    Read More »
  • Navy ships guard while a sea mine is destroyed at the Irben Strait in the Baltic sea, near Riga, Latvia, May 20, 2009
    Military Strategy

    commentary

    Small States Can Use Naval Mines and Unmanned Vehicles to Deter Maritime Aggression

    Scott Savitz

    Jul 16, 2018

    RealClearDefense

    Small coastal nations face potential threats from larger, more powerful adversaries. Their coastlines represent vulnerabilities that a foe may seek to exploit. But these nations can hinder and deter potential aggressors by using less expensive systems, such as naval mines and unmanned vehicles.

    Read More »
  • China's aircraft carrier Liaoning takes part in a military drill of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy in the western Pacific Ocean, April 18, 2018
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Beijing's Threats Against Taiwan Are Deadly Serious

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    May 22, 2018

    Foreign Policy

    China's perception of the political status of Taiwan and how close Taipei and Washington have become has come to dominate cross-strait relations. Taiwan and the United States should prepare for greater hostility in the coming years, almost certainly lasting until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2020.

    Read More »
  • A model of Taiwanese domestically manufactured Hsiung Feng III Anti-Ship Missile is seen inside the missile launching vehicle during International Maritime and Defense Industry Exposition in Kaohsiung, Taiwan September 16, 2016
    Security Cooperation

    commentary

    China Is Tightening the Screws on Taiwan. Will Trump Act and Risk Losing Beijing?

    Michael S. Chase

    Feb 22, 2018

    The Cipher Brief

    The United States should consider ways to strengthen its engagement with Taiwan on defense and security issues that go beyond arms sales. Washington will need to do more to help Taiwan deal with other forms of Chinese pressure as well.

    Read More »
  • Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen arrives at the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, April 27, 2017
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Why China Should (Still) Feel Good About Taiwan… but Maybe Not for Long

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Jan 24, 2018

    Global Taiwan Brief

    Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Taiwanese President Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. But because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.

    Read More »
  • A Chinese military plane H-6 bomber flies over the Pacific October 27, 2013
    Military Aircraft

    commentary

    Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?

    Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Logan Ma

    Sep 13, 2017

    War on the Rocks

    Recent bomber flights near Taiwan represent the most concerted training regimen yet aimed at improving Chinese airpower. China seeks to enhance the PLA Air Force's capabilities and signal Beijing's will to defend its territorial claims against the U.S. and its regional allies and partners, especially Taiwan and Japan.

    Read More »
  • Soldiers pose for photo during International Maritime and Defense Industry Exposition in Kaohsiung, Taiwan September 16, 2016
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase, Logan Ma

    Jun 14, 2017

    Global Taiwan Brief

    Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.

    Read More »
  • People in the Taiwanese tourism industry take part in a march calling for the government to tackle the falling number of Chinese tourists visiting the island since Tsai Ing-wen took office, in Taipei, September 12, 2016
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    May 10, 2017

    International Security

    Prolonged tensions — even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace — are likely if China's President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen cannot reach basic agreement on Taiwan's sovereignty.

    Read More »
  • Soldiers drive a CM33 Clouded Leopard infantry fighting vehicle during the annual Han Kuang military drill simulating the PLA invading the island, in southern Taiwan, August 25, 2016
    International Diplomacy

    commentary

    Why China Will Not Unify with Taiwan by 2020 — and Beijing Lacks Compelling Military Options

    Timothy R. Heath

    Mar 21, 2017

    Lawfare

    The prospects for peaceful unification of China and Taiwan continue to dim. Nothing Beijing has tried to woo or coerce Taiwan has worked. For those determined to compel Taiwan's unification, military subjugation remains a last option. But it would only worsen China's security environment.

    Read More »
  • Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen waves during National Day celebrations in Taipei, Taiwan, October 10, 2016
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Why China Should Feel Good About Taiwan

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Feb 22, 2017

    Global Taiwan Brief

    Chinese leaders should seek to engage in good-faith discussions with Taiwanese counterparts. Beijing should also recognize that Tsai's tentativeness about the new U.S. administration could change if cross-Strait military tensions escalate.

    Read More »
  • Taiwanese Coast Guard patrol ship, Kaohsiung (CG 129), during a rescue drill near the coast of Itu Aba in the South China Sea, November 29, 2016
    Taiwan

    commentary

    History and Current Developments Regarding Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration

    Lyle J. Morris @LyleJMorris

    Feb 15, 2017

    Global Taiwan Brief

    As Asia-Pacific countries develop policies to regulate maritime zones of jurisdiction, the importance of coast guards as instruments of state policy has been growing. Taiwan's Coast Guard is an increasingly effective force.

    Read More »
  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York City, January 11, 2017
    Politics and Government

    commentary

    Hey Washington Experts — Don't Roll Your Eyes Over Trump, Roll Up Your Sleeves

    Michael Spirtas

    Jan 12, 2017

    Fox News Channel

    Policy experts do not want to be irrelevant or ignored. The Trump administration does not want to fail, and needs to generate winning policies. By working together, the administration and the policy community could help one another, and, more importantly, the nation.

    Read More »
  • A woman rides a bike past Taiwan and China national flags during a rally held by a group of pro-China supporters calling for peaceful reunification, Taiwan May 14, 2016.
    International Diplomacy

    commentary

    Walking Away from One-China Policy Imperils Taiwan

    Michael S. Chase, Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Dec 22, 2016

    The National Interest

    The U.S. One-China policy has helped keep the peace for decades. Abandoning it now could result in stiffer Chinese resolve. Such a strategy may even backfire by triggering an otherwise avoidable crisis.

    Read More »
  • U.S. President Barack Obama (right) stands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during an arrival ceremony at the White House in Washington, September 25, 2015
    International Diplomacy

    commentary

    China's Actions Are Causing U.S. 'Militarization' of the Pacific

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Nov 3, 2016

    The National Interest

    Beijing's aggression in the Asia-Pacific is threatening key U.S. allies, causing America to respond. Any change in U.S. policy must be based on changes in Chinese behavior.

    Read More »
  • Young Chinese faithful shelter from the sun as Pope Francis leads the Angelus prayer in Saint Peter's Square at the Vatican, May 22, 2016
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Taiwan Should Not Worry About the Vatican

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Oct 5, 2016

    PacNet, CSIS

    Concerns are growing in Taipei over whether the Holy See intends to switch its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Beijing could be entertaining Vatican requests not out of genuine interest in reestablishing relations, but to put Taiwan on edge.

    Read More »
  • Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen waves during her inauguration ceremony in Taipei, Taiwan, May 20, 2016
    International Diplomacy

    commentary

    A Bumpy Road Ahead for China-Taiwan Relations

    Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

    Sep 22, 2016

    Defense Dossier

    Taiwanese President Tsai has issued numerous political overtures to Beijing, yet Chinese President Xi has demonstrated a clear reluctance to accept her as a credible partner. Instead, he has turned up the heat on Tsai in an attempt to undermine her administration.

    Read More »
  • Taiwan-made MK-30 rockets are launched from Thunderbolt-2000 multiple rocket launchers during the annual Han Kuang military exercise in Penghu, west of Taiwan
    Taiwan

    commentary

    Taiwan Forced to Rethink Its Air Defense Strategy

    Michael J. Lostumbo

    Apr 14, 2016

    Defense News

    Taiwan's defense problem is challenging, but it will spend a considerable sum on air defense capabilities in the coming years, and those investments could be made much more effective.

    Read More »
  • Senior couple on a park bench looking at a tablet
    The Elderly

    commentary

    Aging in Asia: Can the 'Tigers' Continue to Roar?

    Rafiq Dossani, Rachel M. Swanger

    Jun 16, 2015

    The RAND Blog

    Changing demographics will force Japan and the “Asian Tigers” — Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan — to find ways to remain economically dynamic while increasingly looking after their elderly. How might public policy help accomplish this?

    Read More »
  • commentary

    Roiling the Waters in the Taiwan Strait

    Roger Cliff, Toy I. Reid

    Mar 21, 2006

    International Herald Tribune

    Published commentary by RAND staff: Roiling the Waters in the Taiwan Strait, in International Herald Tribune.

    Read More »
  • commentary

    Taiwan Risks Getting In Over Its Head

    Michael D. Swaine

    Apr 24, 2001

    Los Angeles Times

    Published commentary by RAND staff.

    Read More »

Quoted

  • Instead of a new domestic terrorism law, this moment calls for rigorous and equal enforcement of existing law, treating offenders as ordinary criminals, and avoiding legislation that may undermine Americans' rights and create labels that deepen the current political divide.

    brian michael jenkins, brian jenkins

    Brian Michael Jenkins

    Senior Adviser to the RAND President

    Source: The Hill

  • While I am glad to see all the teaching resources available today, our survey suggests a more systemic approach to expanding civic education is necessary. A first step toward that would be to make civic education a priority in state education standards and requirements.

    julia kaufman, k0442

    Julia H. Kaufman

    Senior Policy Researcher

    Source: The RAND Blog

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