Taiwan

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What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Upcoming Presidential Election Will Clarify Taiwan's China Policy

Until the Taiwanese presidential election next January, China, the United States, and many other countries will be watching Taiwan with bated breath. Across the Indo-Pacific region and the world, the hope would simply be that no matter who is elected, peace and stability continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Waiting to Impale: Defending Taiwan with Artificial Reefs

Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is arguably the most important defense problem of the next few decades. Artificial reefs could help to deter China simply by waiting to impale any potential invasion force.

Scott Savitz

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Dementia and National Security, Finland Joins NATO, the Four-Day School Week: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the risk that dementia could pose to national security, Finland's NATO membership, the downside of a four-day school week, and more.

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Juggled Plan for McCarthy-Tsai Meeting Does Taiwan No Favors

Instead of traveling to Taiwan like Nancy Pelosi did, U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is abiding by the advice of President Tsai Ing-wen to skip the trip. They will meet in California. This could be seen as a major victory for China's aggressive stance toward U.S. ties with the island and could embolden Beijing.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War

China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.

Timothy R. Heath

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Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.

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Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine, Gun Violence, Migrant Surges: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the United States can help avoid a long war in Ukraine, responding to the gun violence crisis, limits on teachers’ instruction, and more.

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'Strategic Ambiguity' May Have U.S. and Taiwan Trapped in a Prisoner's Dilemma

For its proponents, the idea of strategic ambiguity seems to have become an end in itself that has not adapted, and logically cannot adapt to the disruptive growth in Beijing's military power. The conditions under which the policy worked seem to have evaporated with China's rise. Strategic clarity may offer a way out of this dilemma.

Raymond Kuo @Kuorum1

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Could Taiwan Defend with Uncrewed Surface Vessels?

Ukraine has demonstrated the ability of explosive uncrewed surface vessels to target ships. These weapons could play a role in preventing Chinese forces from successfully invading Taiwan in potential future scenarios.

Scott Savitz

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Ten Things That Inspired Me in 2022

It would be impossible to capture all the important work that RAND does in a year. But RAND president and CEO Jason Matheny has compiled ten times he was inspired by RAND's efforts to bring insight to some of the biggest policy stories of 2022.

Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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Can the War in Ukraine Help the United States Address Security Concerns in the Indo-Pacific?

Even as the Russian military continues to struggle in Ukraine, Air Force leaders and top national security experts at the 2022 West Coast Aerospace Forum warned not to expect similar outcomes in a potential conflict with China. The 7th annual event focused on applying lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

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Taiwan, Putin's Holy War, Mining the Moon: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why China likely won't attack Taiwan anytime soon, Vladimir Putin's “holy war” in Ukraine, why it's time to make rules for space-mining, and more.

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Xi Likely Won't Be Attacking Taiwan Anytime Soon

Rather than start a war, Xi Jinping is more likely to intensify China's use of coercive measures against Taiwan, including diplomatic, economic, and military pressure coupled with cyber and psychological operations. If coercion fails, Beijing might turn to force as a last resort, but this still seems unlikely given the many complicating factors.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss preparing for future pandemics; planning now for a negotiated outcome in Ukraine; insights from Ukraine that relate to Taiwan; the need for more data to help reduce law enforcement–related deaths; how China might react to U.S. posture changes; and using statistics to improve military force planning.