Terrorism Financing

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Gun Policy, Cannabis, ISIS: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap looks at gun policy in America, the cannabis market in Washington state, countering an ISIS comeback, and more.

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Cryptocurrency, Russian Social Media, Congestion Pricing: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on cryptocurrencies, Russian social media influence, congestion pricing, and more.

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ISIS's New Plans to Get Rich and Wreak Havoc

Although the Islamic State has lost nearly 98 percent of the territory it once controlled, it is ripe for a comeback in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq and Syria. The group has proven that it is capable of making money even without controlling large population centers.

Colin P. Clarke

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Toy Drones and Twitter: The Ability of Individuals to Wreak Large-Scale Havoc

Lone wolves or small groups could use drones, virtual currencies, encrypted communications, and artificial intelligence for nefarious purposes. The threat is even greater when these technologies are used in conjunction with disinformation spread over social media.

Colin P. Clarke

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What Life Under ISIS Looked Like from Space

Satellite images show how ISIS attempted to govern in Iraq and Syria, the economic damage the group left behind, and what it will take to rebuild.

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Oil, Extortion Still Paying Off for ISIS

ISIS's oil revenues declined from a peak of $40 million per month in 2015 to $4 million per month as of early October 2017. Despite the massive reduction, it's still a substantial amount of money for a group whose expenditures decrease with the size of the population and territory it controls and decreased recruitment.

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Hezbollah Has Been Active in America for Decades

Hezbollah has been active inside the United States for decades, engaging in a range of activities that include fundraising and money laundering. The U.S. and its allies should continue to combat the financing of terrorism and take action against the funding of terrorist groups on U.S. soil.

Colin P. Clarke

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ISIS Is So Desperate It's Turning to the Drug Trade

As the Islamic State loses territory, it is forced to seek new revenue streams to exploit, including drug trafficking. Proceeds garnered from peddling narcotics affords jihadis in Europe the financial flexibility to travel to Syria, to fund attacks, and to pay for their return trips home.

Colin P. Clarke

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What Happens After ISIS Goes Underground

As the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria suffers defeats on the battlefield, it is expanding its cyber presence to continue to encourage attacks abroad. The more the group relies on cyberspace, the more likely it will expose important segments of its organization to detection and disruption.

Colin P. Clarke, Chad C. Serena

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Can the Islamic State Survive Financially?

Significant gains have been made in attacking the Islamic State's cash and diminishing its ability to finance high-frequency attacks in Iraq and Syria. But the group may retain enough money to support sporadic attacks in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe.

Patrick B. Johnston, Colin P. Clarke

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The Caliphate Is Crumbling: What Comes Next?

ISIL's caliphate is crumbling. But unless the U.S.-led coalition can reduce the many possibilities that might give ISIL's down-and-out members a reason to fight on, the militants will continue to contribute to disorder in the region.

Colin P. Clarke, Craig Whiteside

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Are Terrorists Using Cryptocurrencies?

As the U.S. Treasury Department and its partners have denied terrorists access to the international financial system, new digital currencies could become an attractive alternative. They could be used for money laundering or to pay the personnel and vendors that keep the terrorist machine running.

David Manheim, Patrick B. Johnston, et al.

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Crime and Terror in Europe: Where the Nexus Is Alive and Well

The idea of a crime-terror nexus does appear to be a major threat in Europe, where terrorists and criminals now recruit from the same milieu. Coperation between European law enforcement and intelligence agencies is critical.

Colin P. Clarke

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Cutting the Islamic State's Money Supply

Airstrikes have hit ISIL tanker trucks, oil fields, refineries, and banks, but it would be a mistake to view the group as a poor man's version of its old self. New steps are needed to counter its multi-million dollar taxation and extortion machine.

Eric Robinson @RobinsonEricD

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Islamic State May Be Down, but It's Far from Out

The Islamic State's loss of territory, money, and recruits would seem to demonstrate significant progress by the U.S.-led coalition. But if there is one accepted truism in the battle against the group, it is that its leaders intend to fight to the death to establish an Islamic caliphate.

Colin P. Clarke, Chad C. Serena

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The Islamic State's Money Problems

ISIS now faces considerable money problems. But despite the success of the coalition's counter-terrorist finance measures, it's too early to dismiss ISIS financially.

Patrick B. Johnston

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State of the Union 2016: Insights on Obama's Last Address

RAND research, analysis, and expertise provide context for many of the issues discussed in President Barack Obama's final State of the Union address, including the threat of ISIS, global climate change, and bringing peace to Syria.

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To Defeat ISIS, Focus on Its Real Sources of Strength

The threat ISIS poses today is graver than ever for two reasons: its war chest and its ability to attract foreign recruits are both at their peak. Redoubling international efforts to cut off ISIS from these two pillars of its war machine is necessary to sap the group's strength.

Benjamin Bahney, Patrick B. Johnston

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The Strategic Value of Terrorism

While terrorists and criminals joining forces is certainly a scary thought, it's nothing new and not something that works as simply in practice as it does on a white board. Still, it's a threat worth watching.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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How Global Terror Network Will Get a Boost from Iran Nuclear Deal

Iranian sponsorship of terrorist organizations cannot be divorced from the negotiations because the sanctions that will be lifted provide new sources of funding to reinforce the Iran threat network. A global strategy to address the Iran threat network is essential to stability in the region.

Colin P. Clarke

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The Enemy You Know and the Ally You Don't

Arming Iraq's Sunni militias to fight the Islamic State may seem like a quick fix, but newly declassified documents suggest it might only add fuel to the fire.

Benjamin Bahney, Patrick B. Johnston, et al.

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Islamic State's Global Expansion

The radical Islamist group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, is now expanding in roughly a dozen countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia by exploiting local grievances, doling out money, and leveraging its battlefield successes.

Seth G. Jones

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Oil Bonanza: Good News for the World

World oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since June 2014 and over the next several years prices are more likely to fall than to rise. The global economy will benefit hugely from this shift, and it's possible that global security will also benefit from lower oil prices.

Charles Wolf, Jr.

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The Upside of Lower Oil Prices

Movement toward sharply lower oil prices should be a prominent component of any strategy directed at disabling many of the world's most disruptive threats: Iran's nuclear development, ISIS, Hamas attacks on Israel, and Russia's threat to Ukraine.

Charles Wolf, Jr.

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Hit the Islamic State's Pocketbook

The Islamic State is the world's richest terrorist group, with estimated assets of $1 billion to $2 billion. Airstrikes may disrupt the flow of oil and profits, but they won't lead to the group's financial ruin anytime soon. The Islamic State will bring in an estimated $100 million to $200 million this year.

Patrick B. Johnston, Benjamin Bahney

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To Defeat the Islamic State, Follow the Money

ISIS, likely the world's richest terrorist organization, has bills to pay and mouths to feed. If U.S. President Obama wants to defeat them, he should follow the money.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

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How ISIS Funds Its Reign of Terror

ISIS raises much of its money just as a well-organized criminal gang would do. It smuggles, it extorts, it skims, it fences, it kidnaps and it shakes down. Although supposedly religiously inspired, its actions are more like those of an organized criminal cult.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

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Hitting ISIS Where It Hurts: Disrupt ISIS's Cash Flow in Iraq

President Obama's decision last week to conduct airstrikes against ISIS and send humanitarian aid will help buy time for both Iraqi and Kurdish forces to regroup. But Baghdad needs a strategy that aligns the political and economic interests of all Iraqis to hit ISIS where it hurts: its war chest.

Patrick B. Johnston, Benjamin Bahney

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When Terrorists Kill Terrorists

Battles between rival rebel groups and within terrorist organizations are not uncommon. Terrorists may compete with each other, sometimes in deadly battles, for the control of sources of financing. Some of the internal struggles are about who will lead.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Erik Nemeth Appears on History Channel's 'America's Book of Secrets: Lost Treasures'

In an episode of the History Channel's America's Book of Secrets, Erik Nemeth discusses the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum heist of 1990 and the broader implications of art crime for national security.

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Osama a Wizard of Illusion and Rhetoric

Bin Laden was chairman of the board, not CEO, using his moral authority to urge his tiny army forward, pointing out new ways to kill Americans, encouraging followers to think outside the typical terrorist playbook, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Glimpse of bin Laden Techniques in Captured Records of al-Qa'ida in Iraq

Captured financial documents of al-Qa'ida's Iraq affiliate in Anbar Province revealed its internal operations and enabled one of the most comprehensive assessments of an al-Qa'ida linked group, write Benjamin Bahney, Renny McPherson, and Howard J. Shatz.

Benjamin Bahney, Renny McPherson, et al.

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How Might bin Laden's Demise Affect Business?

Given how markets are responding thus far, Osama Bin Laden's death is likely to have a modestly positive and buoyant effect on equity markets, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.

Charles Wolf, Jr.