Terrorist Organizations

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Should Mexico's Drug Cartels Be Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations?

While the outcry over the kidnapping and murder of U.S. citizens by members of the Gulf Cartel in Mexico is understandable, stridency should not preclude strategic assessment. America's problem with drug trafficking is not the lack of statutes, but the magnitude of the problem.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Appreciating U.S. Ground Force Contributions to Operation Inherent Resolve

Defeating ISIS hinged on a ground fight, requiring the grueling liberation of territory kilometer by kilometer. While Iraqi forces bore the brunt of frontline fighting, U.S. forces were also engaged in on-the-ground combat operations that hastened the defeat of ISIS. Appreciating such contributions will be necessary to distill the right lessons so that we might correctly apply them to future irregular warfare.

Jeffrey Martini, Sean M. Zeigler, et al.

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The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

Two months after the death of al Qaida leader Aymin al-Zawahiri, experts continue to debate potential contenders for his replacement while waiting for al-Qaeda to make an announcement. A dark horse contender with long ties to Osama bin Laden could upend predictions and threaten to revive one of history's most lethal terrorist groups.

Sara Harmouch

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After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

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Civilian Casualties: Lessons from the Battle for Raqqa

The United States' emphasis on minimizing civilian harm in Raqqa, Syria, was quite clear and strong up and down the chain of command. But the way in which the U.S. military waged war in Raqqa too often undercut that commitment. The Pentagon asked RAND to find out what happened.

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Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge

In the early 1970s, amid a worldwide rash of bombings, hijackings, and hostage-takings, RAND researchers began creating the first international database of terrorist incidents. Maintained until 2009, it chronicles more than 40,000 terrorist attacks since 1968.

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Complex Calculations Shape Pakistan-TTP Negotiations

Pakistan sees the Taliban as a facilitator of discussions with the TTP, as an ally in persuading the TTP to negotiate, and as a guarantor of whatever agreement is reached. And given the Taliban's diplomatic isolation and desperate economic situation, Pakistan can in return assist Afghanistan's new rulers in gaining acceptance and aid.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Negotiating with TTP—A Different Perspective

America's withdrawal and the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan could be a primary force in shaping the trajectory of the continuing armed struggle with Pakistan's Taliban. It may be time for Islamabad to consider whether to renew efforts aimed at reaching a political settlement.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Afghanistan Was Lost Long Ago

The United States failed to build a lasting state in Afghanistan. Although the mission was not doomed from the start, early miscalculations and critical mistakes made success unlikely.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

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The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

The Afghan Taliban is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United States. Washington seems to be holding out hope that the deal will stabilize the country. But the Islamic State Khorasan Province remains a concern. The Islamic State in Afghanistan may be down, but it's not out.

Abdul Sayed, Colin P. Clarke

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Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.

Colin P. Clarke, Asfandyar Mir

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Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.

Asfandyar Mir, Colin P. Clarke

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Can Sudan Escape Its History as a Transit Hub for Violent Extremist Organizations?

Sudan continues to confront major challenges that could derail its path back to the mainstream of international politics. Sudan must show that it is no longer a haven for terrorist and violent extremist groups and that it is committed to ensuring that this remains true.

Peter Chalk, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, et al.

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Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers

Today's self-selecting solo terrorists answer only to their god, whether seeking to destroy all government, pursuing racial separation or genocidal goals, expressing sexual dissatisfaction, or simply wanting to leave their mark. Military operations are irrelevant. This is a deeper societal problem.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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The Dangers of Designating Antifa as a Terrorist Organization Now

The notion of designating Antifa as a terrorist organization may be intended to be a discrete act. But the precedent it would set could bring major strategic changes to how the United States uses counterterrorism laws, with uncertainties about whether those changes better serve national security.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill