Threat Assessment

commentary

Rightsizing the Russia Threat

A proper understanding of the threat Russia poses must begin with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But his military cannot even fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the constraints that should bound the debate about the extent of the threat.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Kaspar Pucek

commentary

UFO Research Is Only Harmed by Antigovernment Rhetoric

There is an undercurrent of conspiracy theory and, relatedly, antigovernment sentiment brewing around the issue of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). If it grows, it could prove toxic to any factual and scientific discussion of UAPs.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, Caitlin McCulloch

commentary

Cyber Attacks Reveal Uncomfortable Truths About U.S. Defenses

Without government investments and policies to drive transparency and a clear understanding of what cybersecurity tools do, how well they work, and how securely they are built, the United States risks continuing to offer its adversaries the means to undermine its systems and, ultimately, its security.

Chad Heitzenrater

commentary

Taking the Measure of AI and National Security

Transformative technologies should not be abandoned due to their risks. Instead, we should focus on understanding the threats, implementing necessary countermeasures, and utilizing the tools in a safer and more secure manner.

Christopher A. Mouton, Caleb Lucas

commentary

North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership

There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China–North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

How to Put RAND Findings on Veteran Support for Extremism in Context

A RAND survey found that U.S. veterans appeared to support extremist groups at a rate lower than the general population. In contrast, a new University of Maryland study found that veteran status was the most prominent characteristic among extremists involved in terrorism attacks with four or more victims.

Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Ryan Andrew Brown, et al.

commentary

What Are Practical Steps to Embrace the Messiness of Public-Private Collaboration in the Fight Against Botnets?

Botnets are networks of computers infected with malware that an attacker controls and uses to fulfill malicious cyber activities. Decisionmakers could incorporate a complex adaptive systems perspective to assess if their organization and immediate network, as well as the overall ecosystem, are adaptable and resilient enough to respond to botnet activities.

Daniel Cunningham

commentary

A Model for Regulating AI

While AI will bring many benefits, it is also potentially dangerous. We would do well to establish a model of oversight that focuses on the three parts of the AI supply chain: hardware, the training of each model, and rigorous review before each model is released.

Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

commentary

It Should Not Have Been a Surprise: The Threat from Putin's Russia

The recent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, left the world asking a hard question: “Are we in a new Cold War with Russia?” Our answer is to a different, and harder, and more important question: Is Russia already at war with the West?

Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn, Thom Shanker

blog

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, Neurodiversity, Russia's 'Forever War': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on public reports of unidentified aerial phenomena, neurodiversity and national security, Ukraine's path to victory, and more.

commentary

UFOs Are Not the Only Potential Threat in American Skies

How can the United States best monitor its millions of square miles of domestic airspace for unidentified anomalous phenomena—what were once called UFOs—or anything else? Public reporting could help officials identify potential threats—but it'd help if the sightings being reported were actually unknown aerial phenomena and not U.S. military aircraft.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, Ashley Gromis, et al.

commentary

The Promise—and Pitfalls—of Researching Extremism Online

How big of a problem is extremism in the United States and around the world? Is it getting worse? Are social media platforms responsible, or did the internet simply reveal existing trends? We have few answers because this research is easy to do poorly and hard to do well.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill, Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans, et al.

commentary

Tackling the Existential Threats from Artificial Intelligence

Addressing potential risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) could begin with simple steps like finding appropriate risk-management approaches, conducting research to determine how AI can better meet designers' intent, and devising responses to issues related to racism, sexism, and other biases within AI systems.

Carter C. Price @CarterCPrice, Michelle Woods

commentary

Climate Security Is National Security

Mitigating the effects of climate change will require a whole-of-government approach and a redefinition of national security to embrace a more panoramic set of risks. Government officials are saying lots of the right things. But is it being done, and done quickly enough?

Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn, Thom Shanker

commentary

Taiwan's Will to Fight May Be Stronger Than You Think

Should China mount an invasion, Taiwan's political leadership and degree of social cohesion will be the most important factors in its defense.

Timothy R. Heath