Threat Assessment

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RAND President and CEO Presenting to House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

RAND President and CEO Jason Matheny appeared on February 28, 2023, before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. His remarks covered advances in synthetic biology and artificial intelligence and their potential impact on national security.

Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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What Does China's Arctic Presence Mean to the United States?

China has engaged in economic, scientific, cultural, diplomatic, and military activities in the Arctic region. The United States sees China as a potentially destabilizing force. But there are opportunities to cooperate, for example, on climate change.

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The Intelligence Community Doesn't Warn About All Attacks Against the U.S. Homeland. Why Not?

Targets for foreign threats against the United States increasingly include entities that are not part of the U.S. government or military. But too many of these potential victims are unaware of threats against them, are not warned with intelligence reporting about such threats, and lack information about options to protect themselves.

Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc

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Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake

Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

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Microchips, Ukraine, Outer Space: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how safeguarding Taiwan is the answer to America's microchip problem, a moment of clarity in Ukraine, new rules in space, and more.

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Climate, Technology, Trust: Ways to Help Students Report Threats to Their School

When students or others don't know how to report a threat or aren't willing to do so, important opportunities to protect students may be missed. Schools receive little guidance about how to implement an effective reporting program or how to build a robust reporting culture. A recent research effort helps to fill this gap, highlighting seven key implications for school safety planning.

Pauline Moore, Brian A. Jackson

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How to Prevent, Prepare for, and Respond to Mass Attacks

A new step-by-step guide can help communities prevent shootings and other mass attacks before they happen, and save lives when they do. It's written for a variety of public- and private-sector audiences--everyone from emergency responders and school officials to security personnel and community leaders.

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After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

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Talking to Russia, Racial Bias, Mine-Hunting Dolphins: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on preventing escalation of the war in Ukraine, how racial bias compounds over time, why the Navy should stick with its mine-hunting dolphins, and more.

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A Toolkit for Avoiding Mass Shootings

RAND has developed an online educational toolkit to provide practical strategies and guidance on deterring, mitigating, and responding to mass attacks. Research highlights three top ways to mitigate and/or respond to mass attacks right now: through proactive prevention, relentless follow-up, and diligent preparation and training.

Richard H. Donohue, John S. Hollywood @JohnS_Hollywood

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States Have Leading Role to Play in Preventing Mass Shootings

As the United States grapples with how to prevent mass shootings, state governments might be best positioned to take the lead on long-term, sustainable efforts that prevent targeted violence.

Katya Migacheva, Jordan R. Reimer

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How to Avoid Extremism on Social Media

Extremist groups have been trolling the internet for decades, and they have learned to temper their words and disguise their intentions. A new scorecard can help users—or parents, or advertisers, or the social media companies themselves—understand when they might be interacting with extremist content.

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Preparing for a Cyberattack Starts at the Local Level

The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine has highlighted the need for federal, state, and local level emergency managers to prepare to respond to a cyberattack with widespread impacts that significantly disrupt critical infrastructure.

Clara Decerbo, Grace Hindmarch, et al.

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Russian Cyberattacks May Be Coming. What Might Be an Optimal Strategy for Responding?

Russia appears poised to make a first move against the United States and its allies in cyberspace. A savvy U.S. response that is deliberately measured and accompanied by the right message could end this fight after the first round.

Dmitri Alperovitch, Samuel Charap @scharap

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Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge

In the early 1970s, amid a worldwide rash of bombings, hijackings, and hostage-takings, RAND researchers began creating the first international database of terrorist incidents. Maintained until 2009, it chronicles more than 40,000 terrorist attacks since 1968.