Trade

commentary

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Long COVID Is a Mass Disability. The Labor Market Is in Denial

Forget the work-from-home revolution or quiet quitting: The COVID-19 pandemic's biggest impact on the U.S. labor market will be as a mass disability event. It's a shock that the economy is not well prepared to handle.

Kathryn A. Edwards

commentary

How COVID-19 Transformed the Jobs Market

The COVID-19 pandemic initially devastated the U.S. economy. It also exposed and exacerbated existing inequities in society. But in as yet unpredictable ways, it may have accelerated profound changes in how labor works today.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Measure ULA Reflects the Wrong Lessons from Proposition HHH

Los Angeles voters approved the so-called “mansion tax,” Measure ULA, which proponents suggested will raise funds for about 26,000 new units of affordable housing over the next decade. But a key labor provision casts doubt on that optimistic projection.

Jason M. Ward @jason_m_ward

commentary

Export Controls Give ASML and the Netherlands an Opportunity to Lead by Example. Will They Take It?

Dutch tech company ASML makes the complex machines required to construct advanced microchips, and it sells many of these machines to China. Harmonization of export controls between the United States and the Netherlands could limit China's development of military technologies and its human rights abuses.

Martijn Rasser, Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

commentary

Russian Aircraft Keep Crashing. Could Sanctions Be the Cause?

At least six fixed-wing Russian aircraft have crashed over Russian-controlled airspace since September. Sanctions placed on Russia by the West could well be affecting Russia's ability to manufacture and maintain parts needed to keep aircraft safe.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

commentary

Cannabis Legalization in Europe: Planning Ahead

Since 2012, multiple jurisdictions have changed their laws to legalize the production, possession, and use of cannabis for nonmedical purposes. While most of these changes took place in the Americas, there are signs that the European legal landscape might be changing, too.

Mafalda Pardal @PardalMafalda

commentary

Green Jobs and Skills Development for Disadvantaged Groups

Many countries have plans to increase green job opportunities. To make sure that everyone can benefit from this promised green transition, it is important to understand how people with low qualifications, and other marginalised groups, might be able to access green jobs.

Joanna Hofman @JoannaBHofman, Katrin Feyerabend, et al.

commentary

Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?

Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.

Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini

blog

Legalizing Cannabis, the Russian Nuclear Threat, Digital Offshoring: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on cannabis legalization, the Russian nuclear threat, the effects of digital offshoring, and more.

blog

Microchips, Ukraine, Outer Space: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how safeguarding Taiwan is the answer to America's microchip problem, a moment of clarity in Ukraine, new rules in space, and more.

commentary

American Investment in Mideast to Stay Focused on Larger Economies Amid Ukraine War

China is often viewed as the economic powerhouse in the Middle East, but the United States has extensive trade, investment, and financial links. U.S. economic involvement in the Middle East is likely to stay focused on larger markets in line with economic growth, without dramatic shifts in location or magnitude.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

commentary

Got a Labor Shortage? Make It Easier to Work

If the United States wants to avoid a long-term worker shortage, it should look to what policy can—but has failed to—fully address. We have a long history using carrots and sticks, but this is a problem we may not be able to cajole or punish our way out of. Finding workers can be as simple as giving more people a chance to work.

Kathryn A. Edwards

commentary

Recovered, but Not Whole: U.S. Jobs Rebounded, but Not for Everyone

The U.S. recovery from the pandemic recession has been remarkable. But it's important to note that both the recession and its recovery treated men and women differently, and treated women of color differently than white women.

Kathryn A. Edwards