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Turkey

Syria
commentary
Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jan 9, 2019
Reuters
Washington's strategy in Syria has been to impose costs on the Syrian government by diplomatic ostracism and economic sanctions. This punitive approach is morally satisfying and politically expedient, but as a practical matter it just helps perpetuate the conflict and sustain Assad's dependency on Iran.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The United States Can't Rely on Turkey to Defeat ISIS
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ahmet S. Yayla
Jan 2, 2019
Foreign Policy
Relying on Turkey to shoulder the burden of countering the Islamic State will provide the terrorist group with an opportunity to revive itself at a critical stage in the fight. Turkey's main focus is on the Kurds and Erdogan's opposition. Eradicating the Islamic State is a secondary priority that has often been ignored.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Is Major Realignment Taking Place in the Middle East?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Oct 31, 2018
Foreign Affairs
The shifting alignments in the Middle East have intensified since the murder of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. Turkey has drifted away from NATO and toward Iran and Russia. Like Tehran and Moscow, Ankara is now more anti-Western than at any point in recent memory. What does this mean for the United States?
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Turkey
commentary
Turkey's Double Standard: How Ankara's Actions Contradict Its Claims of Opposing the Islamic State
Ahmet S. Yayla, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 13, 2018
Foreign Policy
Turkey wants to take credit for the demise of the Islamic State, insisting that Turkey's actions in northern Syria have helped lay the groundwork for a sustainable peace. But the evidence clearly suggests otherwise.
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Turkey
commentary
What's Turkey Trying to Achieve in Syria?
Ahmet S. Yayla, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 2, 2018
The National Interest
Turkish President Erdoğan is attempting to cement his political legitimacy among Syrian Sunnis by portraying himself as their savior. If the United States withdraws from Syria after the mission to defeat ISIS is complete, it will essentially be ceding the advantage to Erdoğan, who can continue pushing his agenda.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Erdogan's Fatal Blind Spot
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ahmet S. Yayla
Feb 16, 2018
Foreign Policy
Erdogan's tolerance of ISIS fighters in Turkey amounts to tacit approval. The danger posed by ISIS using Turkey as a staging ground could become more formidable than the threat currently posed by Kurdish terrorism. Tolerating ISIS to fight the Kurds is therefore a dangerous and myopic policy.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Jerusalem Embassy Move Sparks Turkey-Israel War of Words
Shira Efron @ShiraEfron
Jan 2, 2018
The Cipher Brief
President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital has exacerbated tensions between Turkey and Israel. Economic interests had provided incentives for thawing relations in June 2016, but separating economic interests from political differences is harder today given the mistrust between Ankara and Jerusalem.
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Migrants
commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Amanda Kadlec, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Sep 25, 2017
Foreign Policy Concepts
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
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Turkey
commentary
A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?
Stephen J. Flanagan
May 21, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
While Turkish President Erdogan and U.S. President Trump emphasized the positive aspects of bilateral relations after their meeting, there remain points of contention. The stakes at this meeting and its outcome are high for both Turkey and the United States, and could mark a major milestone in the relationship.
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Syria
commentary
To Take Raqqa, the U.S. Must Work with Its Partner in the Fight Against the Islamic State Group
Linda Robinson @RobinsonL100
Mar 13, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Turkey strongly opposes the U.S. bid to arm the Syrian Kurds. Rushing into Raqqa without reaching agreement with Turkey would jeopardize larger U.S. regional and even global geopolitical objectives.
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Politics and Government
commentary
The Turkish-Russian Rapprochement: How Real? How Durable?
F. Stephen Larrabee
Nov 21, 2016
The National Interest
The recent strengthening of ties between Turkey and Russia may represent more of an economic marriage of convenience than a deeply rooted political alliance. On a number of important issues, particularly the Syrian conflict, the two nations have very different interests and priorities.
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Terrorist Organizations
commentary
Why Syria's War May Be About to Get Even Worse
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Chad C. Serena
Aug 25, 2016
Reuters
Whether or not Jabhat Fateh al-Sham's new name means a genuine break from its parent organization al Qaeda, the mere rebranding could prolong Syria's civil war. The worst-case scenario is that the group could embed itself within the rebel opposition in Syria the way Hezbollah did in Lebanon.
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Turkey
commentary
What Erdogan and Khomeini Have in Common
Alireza Nader
Aug 24, 2016
Foreign Policy
The analogy between Islamist Iran and a possibly soon-to-be Islamist Turkey is not perfect. But there are striking similarities between the state of affairs in Turkey today and the 1979 revolution in Iran that established the Islamic Republic.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Emergencies: France, Mali, and Turkey Are Playing with Fire
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Aug 15, 2016
Breaking Defense
The leaders of France, Mali, and Turkey have declared formal states of emergency. France's Hollande and Mali's Keïta, while responding to real threats, are risking democracy. Erdogan appears to be targeting democracy and using Turkey's recent failed coup as a pretext.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Is the Surge in Terrorist Attacks Coincidence or Coordinated Campaign?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jul 11, 2016
The Hill
Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed (or ignored) to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried.
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Russia
commentary
The Growing Importance of Black Sea Security
F. Stephen Larrabee, Stephen J. Flanagan
Jul 11, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
The U.S. and NATO response to Russia's more assertive policy in Europe since 2014 has focused heavily on deterring possible Russian threats to the Baltic region. As allies take steps to strengthen defense of the Baltic region, they need to pay increased attention to enhancing security and deterrence in the Black Sea area.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Jun 15, 2016
Newsweek
Pessimistically declaring the Arab Spring a failure in 2016 would be as naive as optimistically declaring it a success in 2011. Something comes next—but what?
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Refugees
commentary
Solutions for Educating Young Syrian Refugees
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Apr 21, 2016
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees are school-age children. They face a slew of struggles, not the least of which is the lack of education that they need to move forward in life. What can be done to improve the access to and quality of refugee education?
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Middle East
announcement
RAND's Shelly Culbertson Publishes Book on Middle East After the Arab Spring
Apr 19, 2016
A new book by RAND's Shelly Culbertson mixes travel memoir, reporting, and analysis across six Middle Eastern countries, presenting diverse experiences of the Arab Spring.
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Refugees
commentary
Battered by War, Syrian Refugee Kids Need to Be Taught
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson, Louay Constant
Jan 15, 2016
Newsweek
More than 700,000 Syrian refugee children are not receiving formal education. Host countries are struggling to create enough spaces to accommodate them in schools, and there are no formal programs to teach children who have missed years of instruction.
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Refugees
commentary
Will Today's Refugees Become the 'New Palestinians'?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Oct 9, 2015
The Hill
The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have generated the greatest volume of refugees since World War II. If the international community is to avoid seeing the emergence of a population of new Palestinians lasting decades into the future, it will have to craft a more coherent approach.
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Refugees
commentary
Syria's Simmering Crisis
Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson
Jan 21, 2015
CNN
At least half of Syrian refugee children aren't in school. Those who are face risks to the quality of education they receive, a risk they share with host-country children. But by making long-term investments, the international community can help ensure education isn't another casualty of the war.
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Developing Countries
commentary
The Health Needs of Syrian Women in and Around the Za'atari Refugee Camp
Mahlet Atakilt Woldetsadik
Oct 13, 2014
The RAND Blog
The Syrian conflict, now in its fourth year, has been the main contributor to the largest refugee crisis since the 1994 Rwandan genocide—and the problem can be expected to get worse as the fighting continues.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The U.S. Can't Count on Regional Support in the Fight Against ISIS
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Sep 16, 2014
The New York Times
Regional governments may put some of their differences aside to help fight ISIS. But in a region rife with turmoil and multiple internal fissures, Washington cannot count on its confrontation with ISIS as its partners' overriding priority.
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Gaza Strip
blog
With the Death Toll Rising in Gaza, Is There Any Hope for Peace?
Jul 22, 2014
Casualties are rising in the conflict between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. Are there any realistic expectations for peace in the region? Who could broker a settlement between Hamas and Israel?
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Is Turkey Rethinking the Syrian Kurd Issue?
F. Stephen Larrabee
Aug 21, 2013
CNN
An autonomous Kurdish region that remains an integral part of Syria, even one dominated by the PYD (the Democratic Union, the largest and best organized Kurdish opposition party), would be far less dangerous than one dominated by forces affiliated with al Qaeda.
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Turkey
commentary
The Biggest Loser of Cairo's Coup: Turkey
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jul 19, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
The military coup deposing Egypt's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, has sparked an important shift in the regional balance of power in the Middle East. Morsi's ouster deals a strong blow to the Turkey-Qatar-Egypt “pro-change” axis and to Turkey's hopes of playing a larger role in the region.
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Turkey
commentary
Erdogan's Next Steps
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jun 28, 2013
Project Syndicate
Safeguarding Turkey's interests — and Erdogan's own political agenda — depends on Erdogan's willingness to adopt a more even-handed approach to his domestic opponents, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Turkey's Perfect Storm
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jun 14, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
The spontaneous protests in Turkey, which began in Istanbul and have spread to over 70 Turkish cities, have raised serious questions about Turkey's political stability and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's leadership, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Turkey and Intervention in Syria
Christopher S. Chivvis
May 15, 2013
The RAND Blog
When President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan meet in Washington on May 16, a long list of topics will likely be on the table. The big question, however, is whether anything substantive comes from their discussions of Syria.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why It's No Longer the Chummy 1990s for Turkey, Israel
F. Stephen Larrabee
Apr 8, 2013
Christian Science Monitor
President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are working hard to repair relations between Turkey and Israel and deserve credit for their efforts. But much has changed for both countries since they cooperated in the 1990s, and progress toward rapprochement will likely be slow.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why Erdogan Wants Peace with the PKK
F. Stephen Larrabee
Mar 27, 2013
Foreign Affairs
With the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) now apparently ready to try to peacefully resolve differences with Turkey, the prospects that the uprising will come to an end have improved, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Russia Gambit
Christopher S. Chivvis, Edward P. Joseph
Feb 26, 2013
Foreign Policy
Unless he can convince allies like Turkey as well as skeptics like Russia that the United States is serious about altering the trajectory of the conflict, Kerry might as well skip the Syria talking points and focus on other issues.
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
commentary
Turkey Edges Toward Seeking NATO Support in Syria Crisis
Christopher S. Chivvis
Nov 21, 2012
The RAND Blog
As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Global Security
commentary
Taking Syria Seriously
F. Stephen Larrabee, Wasif Syed
Aug 27, 2012
Project Syndicate
The US needs a more activist, assertive policy toward Syria aimed at ending the conflict in such a way that bolsters regional stability and facilitates a peaceful democratic transition, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Wasif Syed.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Turkish-Iranian Alliance That Wasn't
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jul 12, 2012
Foreign Affairs
As pressures for greater democracy in the Middle East have intensified, Turkey and Iran have clashed more openly and each side has sought to expand its influence at the expense of the other, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Global Security
blog
Violence in Syria Intensifies as UN Plans Action Group Meeting in Geneva
Jun 28, 2012
Violence in Syria has only intensified since the failed ceasefire, leading the UN to suspend its observer mission and prompting comparisons to the war in Bosnia in the 1990s.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
The Turkish Chimera
F. Stephen Larrabee
Mar 23, 2011
Project Syndicate
The Turkish model -- with its emphasis on secularism and democracy -- has obvious appeal in a region burdened by corrupt, autocratic, incompetent, and inefficient governments. But Turkey's historical experience and political evolution differ in important ways from Arab countries', writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Turkey
commentary
The US Midterm Elections and US-Turkish Relations
F. Stephen Larrabee
Nov 23, 2010
Hürriyet Daily News and Economic Review
Some Turkish commentators have written off Obama as a lame duck and advised the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan government to begin reconsidering relations in the post-election period. However, foreign policy played virtually no role in the election, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Building on Greek-Turkish Detente
F. Stephen Larrabee, Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
May 10, 2010
Project Syndicate
Greece's high defense spending has contributed to its economic woes. Improvement in relations with Turkey could enable Greece to cut defense spending and make it easier to rescue an economy on the brink of bankruptcy, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Charles Ries.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Obama's Turkish Dilemma
F. Stephen Larrabee
Apr 6, 2009
CNN
President Obama's visit to Ankara this week highlights Turkey's growing strategic importance to the United States - and a high stakes dilemma for the President and for U.S. strategic interests, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Turkey
commentary
Turkey's Second Chance
F. Stephen Larrabee
Aug 24, 2008
Washington Times
The recent decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court not to close the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) helped Turkey - and especially Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan - narrowly dodge a dangerous political bullet, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Turkey
commentary
Turkey's Broadening Crisis
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jul 25, 2008
International Herald Tribune
Turkey is facing a domestic political crisis that not only threatens the country's internal stability but could weaken its ties to the West and exacerbate instability in the Middle East, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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commentary
A War of Nerves in Turkey
F. Stephen Larrabee
May 12, 2007
Project Syndicate
A War of Nerves in Turkey in Project Syndicate (an association that distributes commentaries to 291 newspapers in 115 countries)
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commentary
America's Turkey Problem
F. Stephen Larrabee, Suat Kiniklioglu
Feb 23, 2007
United Press International
Published commentary by RAND staff: America's Turkey Problem, in United Press International.
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commentary
Winning Back the Turks
F. Stephen Larrabee
Nov 14, 2006
International Herald Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff: Winning Back the Turks, in International Herald Tribune.
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commentary
How Iraq's Neighbours Can Steer It Away From Destruction
David Aaron
Jun 7, 2006
Financial Times
Published commentary by RAND staff: How Iraq's Neighbours Can Steer It Away From Destruction, in the Financial Times.
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commentary
Averting War with Iran
F. Stephen Larrabee, Peter A. Wilson
May 2, 2006
United Press International
Published commentary by RAND staff: Averting War with Iran, in United Press International.
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commentary
Revitalizing U.S.-Turkey Relations
Frank Carlucci, F. Stephen Larrabee
Jun 8, 2005
Washington Times
The White House meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Bush today provides an important opportunity to revitalize U.S.-Turkish relations, badly frayed by the American-led invasion of Iraq
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commentary
Northern Exposure
Cheryl Benard
Apr 7, 2003
Wall Street Journal
Northern Iraq must be handled delicately to avoid additional conflict involving the Kurdish minority.
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commentary
Turkey Walks a Tightrope Over Iraq Issues
F. Stephen Larrabee
Jan 17, 2003
Newsday
commentaries by RAND Staff: insightful commentaries on current events, published in newspapers, magazines and journals worldwide.
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