Ukraine

blog

Protests in China, Negotiating with Russia, L.A.'s 'Mansion Tax': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on protests in China amid the government's zero-COVID policy, the potential harm in negotiating with Russia, building more affordable housing in Los Angeles, and more.

commentary

Politics of Ukrainian Reconstruction

When fighting subsides, Ukraine may undergo reconstruction on the scale of the post–World War II Marshall Plan. Debate is ramping up about core issues, such as the scope of reconstruction, sources of funding, and reforms needed for success. Ukraine and the West might begin now to forge consensus on these issues.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz, Khrystyna Holynska, et al.

commentary

Ukraine's Lessons for the Future of Hybrid Warfare

A new decision-analysis approach is necessary to capture the use of disinformation in the context of hybrid warfare. Multiple tools must be integrated to help generate a robust policy response to modern hybrid threats.

Weilong Kong, Timothy Marler

blog

Taiwan, Putin's Holy War, Mining the Moon: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why China likely won't attack Taiwan anytime soon, Vladimir Putin's “holy war” in Ukraine, why it's time to make rules for space-mining, and more.

commentary

What's the Harm in Talking to Russia? A Lot, Actually

Despite the way it is commonly portrayed, diplomacy is not intrinsically and always good, nor is it cost-free. In the Ukraine conflict, the problems with a push for diplomacy are especially apparent. The likely benefits of negotiations are minimal, and the prospective costs could be significant.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

blog

Dementia Rates, Deepfakes, Migrant Students: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the decline of dementia rates among Americans, the dangers of deepfakes, data privacy after the reversal of Roe v. Wade, and more.

commentary

How Russia's War in Ukraine Has Impacted Its Christian Image

Over the past decade, the Russian government has taken pains to present itself as a bastion of Christianity and traditional values. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, however, there have been noticeable cracks in the receptivity to this messaging strategy.

Ryan Bauer

commentary

'Wonder Weapons' Will Not Win Russia's War

With its army increasingly in shambles, Russia has turned to attacking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure with Iranian-made drones in an effort to destroy Ukrainians' will to fight. These tactics will inflict pain on the Ukrainian population, but if history is any guide, they will not forestall a Russian defeat.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

blog

Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss preparing for future pandemics; planning now for a negotiated outcome in Ukraine; insights from Ukraine that relate to Taiwan; the need for more data to help reduce law enforcement–related deaths; how China might react to U.S. posture changes; and using statistics to improve military force planning.

commentary

Ukraine's Crimea Conundrum

Ukraine could be prudent to manage expectations about potential Crimea outcomes. Kyiv and its Western partners might benefit from a careful analysis of choices.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Peter A. Wilson

commentary

Nuclear Weapons and Putin's 'Holy War'

Russia's nuclear saber-rattling has shifted the stakes of the war in Ukraine. But enabling Russia's blackmail doesn't prevent the catastrophic costs of nuclear escalation. It merely shifts those costs away from Russia and into the future, inviting other nuclear states to pull the same move for their conquests.

Krystyna Marcinek @KMMarcinek

commentary

Ukraine's Dream Could Be Taiwan's Nightmare

Defenders of territorial sovereignty and a peaceful world order may be cheered by Ukraine's success, but there is danger that success could decrease the urgency of efforts to strengthen Taiwan. China will seek to learn from the problems Russia has had in Ukraine. Will the U.S. and other supporters of Taiwan do the same?

Michael Spirtas

commentary

Planning Now for a Negotiated Outcome in Ukraine

The United States should consider keeping open lines of communication with Russia. While it may not lead to peace in Ukraine any time soon, it could help mitigate the risks of dramatic escalation and indefinite war.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe

blog

Putin's Gambits, Xi Jinping, Machine Learning: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Putin's latest “desperate measures” in Ukraine, support for Xi Jinping, whether machine-learning tools can tell if you're lying, and more.

commentary

The West and Russia the Day After

In the 1990s, after the breakup of the USSR, the West adapted to and helpfully influenced the birth of 15 new republics. If liberalizing change comes anew, the West may seek to help Russia heal itself for the long term.

William Courtney @courtneywmh