Ukraine

commentary

The Russian Military's Looming Personnel Crises of Retention and Veteran Mental Heath

Russia's looming troop-retention and veteran-treatment problems are already visible on the horizon, even though they have been delayed by policy. By invading Ukraine, Russia has created a wave of severe trauma that will soon crash over its own country.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

commentary

What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine

After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.

Brynn Tannehill

commentary

Military Assistance to Ukraine Is a Rare Success

Recently, the United States reversed its long-standing opposition to sending Ukraine F-16 advanced aircraft to aid its fight against Russia. The policy reversal is a smart call. Once the aircraft are delivered and training is complete the jets will help Ukraine defend its territory more efficiently, and might even help end the war.

Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes, Richard Bennet

commentary

F-16s Will Bolster Ukraine's Fighting Force

F-16s going to Ukraine could help it defend against Russian aerial assaults. But their greatest value may be to augment future Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at retaking occupied land. This will require training and exercising, but Ukrainian forces are fully capable of mastering it.

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

Raphael S. Cohen

q&a

Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick in Conversation

Though not a great power war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused many to wonder what a true great power war in Europe or the Indo-Pacific would look like, and especially what kind of world would emerge afterwards. Two RAND researchers discuss how their recent report sheds light on this issue.

blog

Ukraine's Recovery, Mental Health First Aid, School Staffing: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the trade-offs of Ukraine's reconstruction, the effects of a Mental Health First Aid training program, school staffing challenges, and more.

commentary

What the Drone Strikes on the Kremlin Reveal About the War in Ukraine

False flag, special op, or fizzled attack—it may not be possible to get to the bottom of who launched drones at the Kremlin and why any time soon. But the incident and reactions it has elicited from the war's major players reveal just how important weaponized, long-range drones have become in this conflict.

Brynn Tannehill

commentary

Why Does Ukraine Want Western Jets?

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has requested Western fighter jets. Why does it want them? Of what use could they be? And what are some of their limitations?

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

Countering Russia's Nuclear Threat in Europe

President Vladimir Putin's announced plan to put nuclear arms in Belarus may pose risks to NATO's nuclear posture. Three decades after the Soviet collapse, some allies might be uneasy about reenergizing NATO's nuclear mission. But others might argue that not responding to Russia's plans could cause the Kremlin to doubt NATO's nuclear credibility.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater

Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. How do we interpret Putin's statements? While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

blog

Truth Decay and National Security, Gun Violence, Blockading Crimea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Truth Decay and national security, America's gun violence problem, how Ukraine could blockade Crimea, and more.

commentary

Europe: Ukraine's Essential Ally

While the United States is Ukraine's primary military backer, Europe is sharing the war's overall burden, sanctioning Russia, arming Ukraine, and helping prepare it to join the European Union, as well as absorbing huge economic costs. Europe's partnership with the United States on Ukraine may be Western diplomacy's finest hour since the Berlin Wall fell.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Hans Binnendijk

commentary

Why Blockading Rather Than Retaking Crimea Might Be Kyiv's Best Option

Ukraine may lack the military capability to retake Crimea from Russia. But Kyiv might still achieve some of its key objectives by blockading the peninsula. New technology may ease this task.

Scott Savitz, William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

What Difference Will Polish and Slovakian Fighter Jets Make to Ukraine?

The news that Poland and Slovakia are to deliver MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine signals a departure from the longstanding stance of the international community, which had hitherto resisted Kyiv's calls for more combat aircraft. While this donation will be welcomed in Ukraine, it could raise political and practical issues the West must address to maximize the benefits and mitigate the risks.

James Black