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Vietnam
commentary
How U.S.-Vietnam Ties Might Go Off the Rails
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Feb 1, 2021
The Diplomat
Although there are valid reasons to question the trajectory of U.S.-Vietnam relations in the coming years, the overwhelming momentum is positive and is likely to stay that way. Any frictions that arise will probably be handled diplomatically to avoid greater damage to the relationship. But of course, nothing is guaranteed.
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Vietnam
commentary
What Does Vietnam Want from the United States in the South China Sea?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 4, 2021
The Diplomat
Over the last few years, tensions between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea have remained high. While the Biden administration is likely to continue positive momentum in bilateral ties, it is less clear what specifically Hanoi seeks from Washington to help it effectively deter Beijing.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Vietnam Is Losing Its Best Friends to China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Nov 2, 2020
The Diplomat
The wide range of Chinese activities with Cambodia and Laos must be jarring for Vietnamese leaders. China has eclipsed Vietnam in Indochina, and that means that Hanoi's angst will only continue to rise in its own backyard. Vietnam will likely have to find alternative means of engaging Cambodia and Laos to combat Chinese influence in this critical region in the years to come.
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Vietnam
commentary
What Does Vietnam Think About America's Indo-Pacific Strategy?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 5, 2020
The Diplomat
The South China Sea is where the rubber meets the road for U.S.-Vietnam security ties, and in this regard, Hanoi has gone as far as it is comfortable. Washington should expect Vietnam to continue seeking balance between China, which has economic and military superiority over it, and the United States, which can help offset Chinese power.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 4, 2020
The Diplomat
Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Apr 9, 2020
The Diplomat
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
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China
commentary
A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Logan Ma
Apr 6, 2020
Maritime Issues
China's armed fishing militia plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Why did Beijing create a maritime militia to begin with and how has it evolved over time? What does this history suggest about its future?
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Vietnam
commentary
China Remains Unfazed by Warming U.S.-Vietnam Security Ties
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 19, 2020
The Diplomat
In early March, the United States sent an aircraft carrier to Da Nang, Vietnam, in a display of goodwill and deepening security ties between the former adversaries. China is well aware of U.S.–Vietnam moves, and yet its public reaction to the USS Theodore Roosevelt can be summed up in one word: unfazed.
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Vietnam
commentary
How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christopher Sharman
Dec 31, 2019
War on the Rocks
Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.
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China
commentary
What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Dec 30, 2019
South China Morning Post
While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.
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International Diplomacy
blog
Most Popular RAND Blog Commentary of 2019
Dec 23, 2019
Terrorism. The humanitarian crisis at the border. How to engage friends and foes on the world stage. Here are the top 10 commentaries that readers engaged with most on The RAND Blog in 2019.
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Medicare
blog
Medicare, Climate Change, 'Superbugs': RAND Weekly Recap
Nov 22, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on opening Medicare to Americans at age 50, how to assess climate change plans, antibiotic-resistant superbugs, and more.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Nov 15, 2019
The Diplomat
With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”
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Law of the Sea
commentary
Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 19, 2019
Maritime Issues
What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.
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North Korea
commentary
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christian Curriden, Dung Huynh
Aug 12, 2019
38 North
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
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Postsecondary Education
blog
Iran, Prison College Programs, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap
May 24, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on Iran's nonstate partners, lessons from a prison college program, what a fentanyl ban in China means for the U.S. opioid crisis, and more.
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China
commentary
Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 15, 2019
The Diplomat
China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Dung Huynh
Jan 21, 2019
The Diplomat
U.S.-China tensions are rising in the South China Sea. Washington should take solace in the fact that Vietnam's “Three Nos” policy actually offers significant breathing room for defense cooperation.
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Vietnam
commentary
Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Nguyen Nhat Anh
May 11, 2018
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam's Remarkable Month of Balancing Against China in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 26, 2018
The Diplomat
Vietnam in March very publicly engaged in a string of activities to strengthen deterrence against China in the South China Sea. But Hanoi's push to deepen external defense ties with states that can help its cause will not necessarily translate into greater risk-taking in the region.
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United States Marine Corps
commentary
Book Review: 'Eye Corps: Coming of Age at the DMZ'
Dan Grunfeld
Jan 5, 2018
Daily Journal
In reviewing Jack Walker's book about his coming of age in Vietnam, Dan Grunfeld says the story is “powerful, thoughtful and engaging. ... The hard and expensive lessons of Walker's youth led to a big-hearted life, full of wisdom and generosity that touched so many.”
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Vietnam
commentary
U.S. Striking Just the Right Balance with Vietnam in South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Nov 23, 2017
The Diplomat
The Trump administration has seized upon positive momentum from the Obama administration to elevate U.S.-Vietnam defense cooperation to new heights.
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Vietnam
commentary
How One French Director Brought the Vietnam War Home for Americans
James T. Quinlivan
Oct 23, 2017
The National Interest
In 1967, the first major documentary about the Vietnam war appeared as a CBS News Special Report featuring a film by French director Pierre Schoendoerffer. It introduced key features of the war told through the filming of an American platoon, and provided texture and background so a viewer could gain a sense of what was happening there.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Mar 3, 2017
Jamestown Foundation's China Brief
China has probably tolerated Vietnam's South China Sea construction activities because it feels confident in its military position in the region. Chinese leaders might change their stance if they believe Vietnam is trying to enlist the support of the U.S. or other partners to settle bilateral disputes.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why Has Obama Lifted the Arms Sales Ban on Vietnam?
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
May 25, 2016
Newsweek
The lifting of the arms embargo needs to be understood as part of the long process of normalizing relations with a former U.S. enemy and building toward a more cooperative, economically dynamic, and strategic future-oriented relationship.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Improving the U.S. Security Assistance Model
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Nov 18, 2015
The Cipher Brief
The United States often approaches security assistance the same way it did in Vietnam, with the same results. A better way would be to focus on politics and shaping the political context.
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Vietnam
commentary
Book Review: 'Uphill Battle' by Frank Scotton
James T. Quinlivan
Jun 5, 2015
American Diplomacy
This book provides a more sympathetic understanding of the Vietnam War at the working level when everything now known about it was still in the future.
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International Diplomacy
blog
China Unlikely to Blink in Maritime Dispute with Vietnam over Oil Rig
Jun 12, 2014
Tensions are rising in the South China Sea, where China moved a state-owned oil rig, reportedly accompanied by six warships, into disputed waters last month, triggering anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam that resulted in four deaths. Beijing has denied reports indicating the presence of Chinese warships in the region, while Hanoi has threatened legal action.
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United States Army
commentary
Failure to Learn: Reflections on a Career in the Post-Vietnam Army
David E. Johnson @DaveJohnsonDC
Jan 27, 2014
War on the Rocks
In the aftermath of a decade of war, the Army must have an objective, serious debate — one that it never engaged in after Vietnam — to understand its experiences, both good and bad.
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Communism
commentary
The Passing of Vietnam Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap
Jonah Blank
Oct 8, 2013
The RAND Blog
The passing of Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap marks the end of an era for Vietnam — and for giants of the twentieth-century anti-colonial movement throughout the world. As commander of the Viet Minh and the Vietnam People's Army, his strategies led to successes against France and the U.S. that were regarded as among communism's finest military moments.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Negotiating Peace in Afghanistan Without Repeating Vietnam
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jan 13, 2012
The Washington Post
The Vietnam negotiations arose from a U.S. initiative, in response to domestic political imperatives and over repeated objections from the Saigon regime. By contrast, the incipient Afghan process has its roots in that society, not ours, writes James Dobbins.
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Afghanistan
commentary
Afghanistan: Echoes of Vietnam
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Oct 8, 2009
The Huffington Post
Now that U.S. involvement in Iraq has begun to require fewer resources, Afghanistan is the new focus of American and European anti-war sentiment, and increasingly Obama's critics are drawing on the analogy of Vietnam, writes James Dobbins.
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