Vietnam

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With ASEAN Paralyzed, Southeast Asia Seeks New Security Ties

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations tirelessly proclaims its centrality to the region, but its inability to develop a coherent response to Chinese aggression or the crisis in Myanmar has effectively killed that claim. ASEAN members will inevitably continue to seek out alternative paths.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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NATO Summit, Russia's Failures in Ukraine, Vietnam Bans 'Barbie': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the NATO summit in Vilnius, Russia’s repeated missteps in Ukraine, why America's superintendents are so stressed, and more.

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Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough

The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'

When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative.

Scott Savitz

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Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Taiwan Isn't the Ukraine of the Indo-Pacific. Try Vietnam Instead

Russia's war in Eastern Europe has prompted Indo-Pacific security watchers to draw comparisons between Ukraine's plight and that of Taiwan with regard to China. But the more-applicable analogy is a different Indo-Pacific country: Vietnam.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Vietnam Must Be Pleased with the Biden Administration—for the Most Part

After four years of steadily strengthening U.S.-Vietnam security relations under the Trump administration, the presidential transition to Joe Biden naturally carries some measure of uncertainty for Hanoi. Early signs from the Biden administration, however, are extremely positive for Vietnam.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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How U.S.-Vietnam Ties Might Go Off the Rails

Although there are valid reasons to question the trajectory of U.S.-Vietnam relations in the coming years, the overwhelming momentum is positive and is likely to stay that way. Any frictions that arise will probably be handled diplomatically to avoid greater damage to the relationship. But of course, nothing is guaranteed.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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What Does Vietnam Want from the United States in the South China Sea?

Over the last few years, tensions between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea have remained high. While the Biden administration is likely to continue positive momentum in bilateral ties, it is less clear what specifically Hanoi seeks from Washington to help it effectively deter Beijing.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Vietnam Is Losing Its Best Friends to China

The wide range of Chinese activities with Cambodia and Laos must be jarring for Vietnamese leaders. China has eclipsed Vietnam in Indochina, and that means that Hanoi's angst will only continue to rise in its own backyard. Vietnam will likely have to find alternative means of engaging Cambodia and Laos to combat Chinese influence in this critical region in the years to come.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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What Does Vietnam Think About America's Indo-Pacific Strategy?

The South China Sea is where the rubber meets the road for U.S.-Vietnam security ties, and in this regard, Hanoi has gone as far as it is comfortable. Washington should expect Vietnam to continue seeking balance between China, which has economic and military superiority over it, and the United States, which can help offset Chinese power.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea

Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China

The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us

China's armed fishing militia plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Why did Beijing create a maritime militia to begin with and how has it evolved over time? What does this history suggest about its future?

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Logan Ma

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China Remains Unfazed by Warming U.S.-Vietnam Security Ties

In early March, the United States sent an aircraft carrier to Da Nang, Vietnam, in a display of goodwill and deepening security ties between the former adversaries. China is well aware of U.S.–Vietnam moves, and yet its public reaction to the USS Theodore Roosevelt can be summed up in one word: unfazed.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers

Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christopher Sharman

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What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020

While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Most Popular RAND Blog Commentary of 2019

Terrorism. The humanitarian crisis at the border. How to engage friends and foes on the world stage. Here are the top 10 commentaries that readers engaged with most on The RAND Blog in 2019.

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Medicare, Climate Change, 'Superbugs': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on opening Medicare to Americans at age 50, how to assess climate change plans, antibiotic-resistant superbugs, and more.

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Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea

With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea

What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea

President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christian Curriden, et al.

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Iran, Prison College Programs, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Iran's nonstate partners, lessons from a prison college program, what a fentanyl ban in China means for the U.S. opioid crisis, and more.

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Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight

China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'

U.S.-China tensions are rising in the South China Sea. Washington should take solace in the fact that Vietnam's “Three Nos” policy actually offers significant breathing room for defense cooperation.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Dung Huynh

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Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea

Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Nguyen Nhat Anh

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Vietnam's Remarkable Month of Balancing Against China in the South China Sea

Vietnam in March very publicly engaged in a string of activities to strengthen deterrence against China in the South China Sea. But Hanoi's push to deepen external defense ties with states that can help its cause will not necessarily translate into greater risk-taking in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Book Review: 'Eye Corps: Coming of Age at the DMZ'

In reviewing Jack Walker's book about his coming of age in Vietnam, Dan Grunfeld says the story is “powerful, thoughtful and engaging. ... The hard and expensive lessons of Walker's youth led to a big-hearted life, full of wisdom and generosity that touched so many.”

Dan Grunfeld

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U.S. Striking Just the Right Balance with Vietnam in South China Sea

The Trump administration has seized upon positive momentum from the Obama administration to elevate U.S.-Vietnam defense cooperation to new heights.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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How One French Director Brought the Vietnam War Home for Americans

In 1967, the first major documentary about the Vietnam war appeared as a CBS News Special Report featuring a film by French director Pierre Schoendoerffer. It introduced key features of the war told through the filming of an American platoon, and provided texture and background so a viewer could gain a sense of what was happening there.

James T. Quinlivan

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China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now

China has probably tolerated Vietnam's South China Sea construction activities because it feels confident in its military position in the region. Chinese leaders might change their stance if they believe Vietnam is trying to enlist the support of the U.S. or other partners to settle bilateral disputes.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Why Has Obama Lifted the Arms Sales Ban on Vietnam?

The lifting of the arms embargo needs to be understood as part of the long process of normalizing relations with a former U.S. enemy and building toward a more cooperative, economically dynamic, and strategic future-oriented relationship.

Scott W. Harold

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Improving the U.S. Security Assistance Model

The United States often approaches security assistance the same way it did in Vietnam, with the same results. A better way would be to focus on politics and shaping the political context.

Michael Shurkin

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Book Review: 'Uphill Battle' by Frank Scotton

This book provides a more sympathetic understanding of the Vietnam War at the working level when everything now known about it was still in the future.

James T. Quinlivan

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China Unlikely to Blink in Maritime Dispute with Vietnam over Oil Rig

Tensions are rising in the South China Sea, where China moved a state-owned oil rig, reportedly accompanied by six warships, into disputed waters last month, triggering anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam that resulted in four deaths. Beijing has denied reports indicating the presence of Chinese warships in the region, while Hanoi has threatened legal action.

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Failure to Learn: Reflections on a Career in the Post-Vietnam Army

In the aftermath of a decade of war, the Army must have an objective, serious debate — one that it never engaged in after Vietnam — to understand its experiences, both good and bad.

David E. Johnson

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The Passing of Vietnam Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap

The passing of Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap marks the end of an era for Vietnam — and for giants of the twentieth-century anti-colonial movement throughout the world. As commander of the Viet Minh and the Vietnam People's Army, his strategies led to successes against France and the U.S. that were regarded as among communism's finest military moments.

Jonah Blank

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Negotiating Peace in Afghanistan Without Repeating Vietnam

The Vietnam negotiations arose from a U.S. initiative, in response to domestic political imperatives and over repeated objections from the Saigon regime. By contrast, the incipient Afghan process has its roots in that society, not ours, writes James Dobbins.

James Dobbins

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Afghanistan: Echoes of Vietnam

Now that U.S. involvement in Iraq has begun to require fewer resources, Afghanistan is the new focus of American and European anti-war sentiment, and increasingly Obama's critics are drawing on the analogy of Vietnam, writes James Dobbins.

James Dobbins