West Asia

commentary

The Ripples of War Are Only Beginning to Spread. Is America Ready?

There are now more than 1.9 million U.S. veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. More than 50,000 were physically injured and around 15 percent have experienced PTSD. Perhaps all were exposed to burn pits and other toxins. What are the long-term impacts of the wars on those who fought them?

Kayla M. Williams @KWilliams101

q&a

Twenty Years After the Iraq War, a Q&A with RAND Experts

On the 20th anniversary of the war in Iraq, RAND experts discussed what the war means for the people of Iraq and the veterans who fought there, what lessons the U.S. military learned (or did not learn), and what effect it has had on the balance of power in the Middle East and the global reputation of the United States.

commentary

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

blog

A Look Back at the War in Afghanistan, National Security Risks, Hospice Care: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the United States “stayed the unfavorable course” in Afghanistan, the Ohio train derailment, state data on gun deaths, and more.

blog

Earthquake in Turkey and Syria, Facial Recognition, Gun Violence: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the devastating earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria, regulating the use of facial recognition technology by law enforcement, improving data collection on gun violence, and more.

commentary

Russia's Appetite May Extend Beyond Ukraine

Unless Russian forces are defeated in Ukraine or withdrawn by new Kremlin rulers, Moscow might assault other post-Soviet neighbors. The West may face limits on the extent to which it could help them thwart such attacks.

William Courtney @courtneywmh

q&a

Earthquake in Turkey, Syria: Insights from RAND Researchers

Thousands of people have been confirmed dead in one the strongest earthquakes to hit Turkey and Syria in the past century. As search-and-rescue missions ended and recovery began, a handful of RAND researchers shared some of their initial thoughts.

commentary

Appreciating U.S. Ground Force Contributions to Operation Inherent Resolve

Defeating ISIS hinged on a ground fight, requiring the grueling liberation of territory kilometer by kilometer. While Iraqi forces bore the brunt of frontline fighting, U.S. forces were also engaged in on-the-ground combat operations that hastened the defeat of ISIS. Appreciating such contributions will be necessary to distill the right lessons so that we might correctly apply them to future irregular warfare.

Jeffrey Martini, Sean M. Zeigler, et al.

commentary

'Wonder Weapons' Will Not Win Russia's War

With its army increasingly in shambles, Russia has turned to attacking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure with Iranian-made drones in an effort to destroy Ukrainians' will to fight. These tactics will inflict pain on the Ukrainian population, but if history is any guide, they will not forestall a Russian defeat.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

The Iran Protests: A Crossroads in Governance?

Iran has seen large-scale protests in response to the death of Mahsa Amini, who died in the custody of the Iranian morality police in September. But are these protests the spark that will usher in a democratic form of governance in Iran?

Karishma R. Mehta

commentary

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?

The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill

commentary

The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

Two months after the death of al Qaida leader Aymin al-Zawahiri, experts continue to debate potential contenders for his replacement while waiting for al-Qaeda to make an announcement. A dark horse contender with long ties to Osama bin Laden could upend predictions and threaten to revive one of history's most lethal terrorist groups.

Sara Harmouch

commentary

Middle East Peace: The Biden Administration's Approach

The primary goal of President Biden's July trip to the Middle East was clearly to reassert U.S. leadership with traditional allies in the Arab world. There are a few points worth highlighting from the Israel/Palestine portion that may be important to keep an eye on.

Jonathan B. Lincoln

blog

Our New CEO, Algorithmic Bias, Equity in the Workplace: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on what RAND’s new president and CEO envisions for the future, addressing bias in health care algorithms, creating equitable change in the workplace, and more.

commentary

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins