commentary

(Foreign Affairs)

February 28, 2011

Libya's Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi?

by Frederic Wehrey

After Libyans, and much of the civilized world, rejoice in the seemingly inevitable fall of Muammar al-Qaddafi, the country will face the difficult task of repairing a society long traumatized by the Middle East's most Orwellian regime. Libya lacks both legitimate formal institutions and a functioning civil society. The new, post-Qaddafi era, therefore, is likely to be marked by the emergence of long-suppressed domestic groups jostling for supremacy in what is sure to be a chaotic political scene.

For four decades, Libya has been largely terra incognita, a place where the outsized personality of its quixotic leader and a byzantine bureaucracy obscured an informal network of constantly shifting power brokers. Even before the current unrest, working with these figures was uncertain at best—"like throwing darts at balloons in a dark room," as one senior Western diplomat put it to me in 2009....

The remainder of this commentary is available on foreignaffairs.com.


Frederic Wehrey is a Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. He recently returned from Libya.

This commentary originally appeared on Foreign Affairs on February 28, 2011. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.